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FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation (FIP)
NASDAQ:FIP
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FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation
(NASDAQ:FIP)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(11.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and negative equity). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call pointed to improving operational momentum and a credible deleveraging plan, while technicals are only moderately supportive and valuation remains constrained by unprofitability.
Positive Factors
Material revenue growth and scale
Sustained, multi-year revenue expansion reflects growing asset base and commercial traction across rail and energy terminals. Larger scale improves fixed-cost absorption, supports contract negotiation leverage, and creates a firmer base for future margin improvement and cash generation as assets mature.
Record adjusted EBITDA and >$320M exit run‑rate
Sharp, multi-quarter EBITDA improvement indicates strengthening underlying operations and operational leverage. A durable higher run‑rate implies recurring cash earnings potential from core assets, improving prospects for coverage of interest and reinvestment if sustained through project ramps and integrations.
Asset-level operational momentum and integration upside
Realized synergies from the Wheeling/Transstar integration and identifiable commercial opportunities at Jefferson and Repauno indicate durable, organic EBITDA upside. These asset-level gains are structural—driven by network optimization, long-term contracts, and capacity buildouts—supporting future cash flow growth.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Chronically negative operating and free cash flow indicates the business still consumes external capital to fund operations and growth. That structural cash shortfall raises refinancing and liquidity risk, limiting the company's ability to self-fund CapEx, dividends, or debt reduction absent asset sales or external financings.
Deteriorated balance sheet; negative equity
Negative equity is a structural red flag that reduces financial flexibility and increases creditor risk sensitivity. It can constrain access to capital markets, tighten covenants, and limit capacity for opportunistic investments, making the firm more reliant on asset monetizations or sponsor support to restore a healthy capital structure.
Dependence on Long Ridge monetization to deleverage
A material portion of the deleveraging plan hinges on completing a large asset sale. That creates execution and timing risk: failure or delay would sustain elevated leverage, keep financing costs high, and could force distressed or suboptimal transactions, undermining the path to durable improved credit metrics.
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation (FIP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$625.66M
Dividend Yield1.9%
Average Volume (3M)1.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth32.39%
EPS Growth-19.35%
CountryUS
Employees670
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConglomerates
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.08
Shares Outstanding116,294,464
10 Day Avg. Volume1,506,186
30 Day Avg. Volume1,872,350
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-1.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit75.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside85.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$832.23M
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFTAI Infrastructure Inc. focuses on acquiring, developing, and operating assets and businesses that represent infrastructure for customers in the transportation and energy industries. It operates a multi-modal crude oil and refined products terminal, and other related assets. The company also has a 1,630-acre deep-water port located along the Delaware River with an underground storage cavern, a multipurpose dock, a rail-to-ship transloading system, and multiple industrial development opportunities; and a 1,660-acre multi-modal port located along the Ohio River with rail, dock, and multiple industrial development opportunities, including a power plant under construction. In addition, it operates five freight railroads and one switching facility. FTAI Infrastructure Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in New York, New York. FTAI Infrastructure Inc. (NasdaqGS : FIP) operates independently of Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC as of August 1, 2022.
How the Company Makes MoneyFTAI Infrastructure Incorporation generates revenue primarily through long-term contracts for infrastructure projects, asset management fees, and performance-based incentives. The company partners with government entities and private sector organizations to undertake large-scale projects, allowing it to secure steady income streams. Additionally, FIP benefits from investment returns on its equity stakes in various infrastructure assets, which contribute significantly to its earnings. The combination of these revenue streams, along with strategic alliances and joint ventures, bolsters the company's financial performance.
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum and meaningful financial improvement: record quarterly adjusted EBITDA, substantial full-year EBITDA growth (+82% YoY), an end-of-year run-rate exceeding $320M, successful integration start of the Wheeling acquisition with significant early revenue and EBITDA upside, Jefferson ramp with new long-term ammonia contract and multiple high-probability commercial opportunities, progress on Repauno permitting and construction, and a refinancing that provides a path to deleveraging. Challenges include recent Long Ridge outages with a modest EBITDA hit (~$3.5M), some timing uncertainty for Repauno Phase 2 commissioning (guidance leaning to early 2027), elevated parent-level leverage with a 9.75% term loan, and dependence on the successful monetization of Long Ridge to materially improve the capital structure. Overall, the positives materially outweigh the negatives with clear plans to address leverage and to capture incremental growth.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Strong Annual Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $80,200,000, a new quarterly record (up from $70,900,000 in the prior quarter, +13.1% QoQ) and up sharply vs. $29,200,000 in the comparable prior-year quarter (+174.7% YoY). Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $232,300,000, up from $127,600,000 in fiscal 2024 (+82%).
Year-End EBITDA Run-Rate Acceleration
Management exited the year at an EBITDA run-rate of just over $320,000,000 annually — materially above reported annual results — reflecting contributions from late-year transactions and new contracts.
Rail Segment Outperformance — Wheeling Integration
Rail segment Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $41,300,000 (total Rail revenue $86,400,000). Wheeling delivered strong early results: Q4 revenue $43,000,000 (+8% YoY) and Wheeling adjusted EBITDA $19,300,000 (+34% YoY). Transstar contributed $22,000,000 of Q4 EBITDA. Integration has already realized $10,000,000 of annualized cost savings with an additional $10,000,000 in process (50% implemented toward a $20,000,000 target). Management estimates >$50,000,000 of incremental future EBITDA from new revenue opportunities on the combined rail system.
Long Ridge Operational Momentum and Development Opportunities
Long Ridge set a new record for gas production at ~105,000 MMBtu/day in Q4 (well above the ~70,000 MMBtu/day plant requirement), and Q4 EBITDA was $36,200,000 (slightly up from $35,700,000 in Q3, +1.4% QoQ). Management is advancing a 20 MW generation upgrade (projected incremental $5M–$10M annual EBITDA) and pursuing land monetization and data center / PPA opportunities that could materially enhance value and support a planned monetization process.
Jefferson Terminal Ramp and Commercial Pipeline
Jefferson reported Q4 revenue of $23,500,000 (+11.4% QoQ vs $21,100,000) and adjusted EBITDA of $13,600,000 (vs $11,000,000 in Q3, +23.6% QoQ). The new 15-year ammonia export contract began in late November (one month of impact in Q4) and management is in advanced talks on three additional contracts that together could represent >$50,000,000 of incremental annual EBITDA with little to no incremental CapEx.
Repauno Phase Progress and Phase 3 Permitting
Phase 2 construction is progressing on plan; combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 capacity is expected to handle just over 80,000 barrels per day, representing ~ $80,000,000 of annual EBITDA at full utilization. Management secured permits for Phase 3 (two caverns, each 640,000 barrels) and is advancing commercial planning and construction preparation.
Refinancing to Stabilize Parent Capital Structure
Closed a new ~$1.3 billion term loan to repay the bridge used for the Wheeling acquisition; this is the only parent-level debt and carries a 9.75% coupon. The loan is prepayable with a declining premium and management expects proceeds from a potential Long Ridge sale may be used to repay at a lower premium, creating a path to meaningful deleveraging and improved free cash flow.
Non-Core Investment Upside (Clean Planet Energy)
Management executed an exchange that produced a ~$9,000,000 write-up of the Clean Planet Energy holding (excluded from adjusted EBITDA as non-recurring). Management expects Clean Planet to begin contributing regular EBITDA starting in 2027 as facilities under construction/advanced development come online.
Negative Updates
Long Ridge Outages and Short-Term EBITDA Impact
Long Ridge experienced a planned outage (8.5 days in October) plus an additional one-time 19-day outage in December for steam turbine repair. Management estimates the additional outage reduced Q4 EBITDA by approximately $3,500,000. Reported plant capacity factor was 81% for the quarter, impacted by outages.
Timing Uncertainty on Repauno Phase 2 Revenue Start
While construction for Phase 2 is largely on plan, management cautioned commissioning timing is not exact and has shifted guidance toward early 2027 for commercial start (previously expected by late 2026). This creates some timing uncertainty for the anticipated ~$80,000,000 annual EBITDA contribution from Phase 1+2 at full utilization.
Parent-Level Leverage and High Coupon
The new parent-level term loan carries a relatively high coupon of 9.75%, and the company remains relatively leveraged at the parent level until monetization events (e.g., Long Ridge sale) occur. Management is dependent on asset monetizations to materially deleverage and reduce cost of capital.
Dependency on Monetization of Long Ridge
Management is actively pursuing a Long Ridge sale process and expects an announced transaction in H1. Proceeds are expected to be 'hundreds of millions' and will be used primarily to deleverage, but completion/timing is not guaranteed and represents execution risk and near-term dependence for balance sheet improvement.
Operational Exposure: Clairton Outage Impacted Transstar Volumes
Transstar volumes were slightly lower in Q4 due to a U.S. Steel Clairton production unit outage that required the unit to remain down for the entire quarter. Although Clairton returned to full operations in January, this temporary volume disruption negatively impacted Q4 coke volumes.
One-Time Nature of Some Reported Gains
The $9,000,000 write-up of Clean Planet Energy and certain other non-core items were excluded from adjusted EBITDA as non-recurring; such one-time gains should not be interpreted as recurring operating performance.
Company Guidance
Management guided to materially stronger cash flow and deleveraging in 2026, citing an exit EBITDA run‑rate of just over $320,000,000 (FY2025 adj. EBITDA $232.3M vs. $127.6M in 2024; Q4 adj. EBITDA $80.2M excluding a $9M Clean Planet write‑up) and a parent term loan of ~$1.3B (9.75% coupon) put in place to refinance the Wheeling bridge with the option to repay at lower premium using sale proceeds. Near‑term priorities and quantified targets include capturing $20,000,000 of annual cost savings from the Wheeling–Transstar integration ( ~$10M implemented, ~$10M in process), monetizing Long Ridge (transaction targeted in H1 with expected hundreds of millions of net proceeds and minimal tax leakage to drive deleveraging), pursuing four bolt‑on rail M&A opportunities, and growing Jefferson and Repauno where Jefferson’s ammonia contract shifts to a full‑quarter benefit and three commercial opportunities could add >$50,000,000 of annual EBITDA (ammonia $10–15M, refined products $10–15M, Utah crude ~$25M), while Repauno Phase 1+2 capacity of ~80,000 bpd is expected to generate roughly $80,000,000 of annual EBITDA and Phase 3 (two caverns × 640,000 barrels) is permitted and being advanced toward construction pending anchor customers (construction potentially late 2026, revenue early 2027).FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Despite strong revenue growth, fundamentals remain weak: persistent net losses, consistently negative free cash flow, and a 2025 balance sheet showing negative stockholders’ equity (reduced flexibility and higher funding risk).Income Statement
Revenue has grown meaningfully over time (up to $503M in 2025 annual from $69M in 2020), showing improving scale. However, profitability remains weak: net income is negative every year shown, with very large losses in 2024–2025 (2025 annual net margin about -52%). Operating performance is volatile as well, with negative operating margin in most years and inconsistent EBITDA profile, which limits confidence in earnings quality and near-term margin durability.28
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage has been a key overhang historically, with debt elevated versus equity in 2022–2024 (debt running well above equity in 2024). The 2025 annual balance sheet shows a sharp deterioration in capital structure with stockholders’ equity turning negative, which is a major risk signal and typically reduces financial flexibility. While total debt is shown much lower in 2025, the negative equity position and inconsistent leverage trajectory keep the balance sheet risk profile high.24
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a primary weakness: operating cash flow is negative in most years and was deeply negative in 2025 annual (about -$118M), and free cash flow is negative every year shown. Free cash flow deterioration in 2025 (down ~22%) adds pressure, implying the business is still reliant on external funding or asset actions to cover investment and operating needs. A brief positive operating cash flow in 2023 was not sustained, highlighting instability.22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 502.52M | 331.50M | 320.47M | 261.97M | 120.22M |
| Gross Profit | 55.73M | 331.50M | -26.66M | -29.90M | 120.22M |
| EBITDA | 243.03M | -61.23M | 23.32M | -59.06M | -39.94M |
| Net Income | -107.17M | -223.65M | -121.34M | -153.58M | -79.87M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.75B | 2.37B | 2.38B | 2.48B | 2.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 325.95M | 27.79M | 29.37M | 36.49M | 49.87M |
| Total Debt | 3.93B | 1.66B | 1.41B | 1.30B | 789.03M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.80B | 1.92B | 1.64B | 1.69B | 980.25M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 583.87M | 809.52M | 816.21M | 1.46B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -399.26M | -98.10M | -95.23M | -259.83M | -202.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -118.01M | -15.28M | 5.51M | -42.69M | -61.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.14B | -118.14M | -147.12M | -267.27M | -828.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.44B | 193.23M | 79.45M | 157.74M | 1.14B |
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation Technical Analysis
Negative
5.38
Price Trends
5.71
Negative
5.30
Positive
5.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
41.64
Neutral
23.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.93, below the 50-day MA of 5.71, and below the 200-day MA of 5.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FIP.
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation Risk Analysis
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $805.23M | 4.71 | 4.65% | 3.87% | -16.60% | 58.86% | |
53 Neutral | $512.60M | 64.24 | 0.63% | ― | 15.71% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $625.66M | -1.54 | -13.99% | 1.90% | 32.39% | -19.35% | |
52 Neutral | $106.39M | -1.40 | -24.95% | ― | -21.67% | 60.44% | |
50 Neutral | $464.96M | -1.57 | -40.36% | 20.53% | -15.85% | -59.42% | |
47 Neutral | $64.24M | -1.26 | -25.53% | ― | -9.85% | -11.65% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FIP
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation
5.38
0.55
11.39%
CODI
Compass Diversified Holdings
6.18
-12.99
-67.76%
MATW
Matthews International
25.87
4.04
18.49%
NNBR
NN
1.28
-1.27
-49.80%
TRC
Tejon Ranch Company
19.06
2.84
17.51%
TUSK
Mammoth Energy Services
2.20
0.10
4.76%
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
FTAI Infrastructure Secures New Term Loan, Retires Facility
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 25, 2026, FTAI Infrastructure Inc. entered into a secured term loan credit agreement for approximately $1.315 billion maturing in February 2028 at an interest rate of 9.75%, backed by first‑priority security interests in substantially all assets and guarantees from key subsidiaries. The proceeds were used the same day to fully repay an existing August 2025 credit facility, simplifying the capital structure and tightening covenant restrictions on leverage, liens and distributions.
For the full year 2025, FTAI Infrastructure reported Adjusted EBITDA of $232.3 million, up 82% from 2024, with fourth‑quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $80.2 million implying a $320.8 million annual run rate despite a net loss attributable to stockholders of $207.4 million. The railroad segment generated $41.3 million of fourth‑quarter Adjusted EBITDA as integration of the Wheeling & Lake Erie Railroad progressed, while the board declared a $0.03 per share cash dividend for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, payable on April 1, 2026.
The most recent analyst rating on (FIP) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation stock, see the FIP Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
FTAI Infrastructure announces Jefferson private notes offering
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Jefferson announced plans to launch a private offering of up to $255 million in notes, with the final size subject to market conditions, to refinance existing 2024B taxable facility revenue bonds from the Port of Beaumont, cover accrued interest and fees, fund debt service reserves and interest accounts, and provide additional working capital. The contemplated financing, which may or may not be completed, is intended to strengthen Jefferson’s capital structure and support continued utilization and growth of its terminal and storage operations within FIP’s infrastructure platform, though the company highlights significant market, operational and regulatory risks that could affect the ultimate terms, timing and benefits of the transaction for creditors and other stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (FIP) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation stock, see the FIP Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.