FibroGen (FGEN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $30.26M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: 5.59%
• EPS Growth: 83.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 225
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 100,916,954
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 947,907
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,415,642
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.18
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -1.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $10.00
• Price Target Upside: 3233.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

FibroGen's overall stock score reflects its financial difficulties, with declining revenues and persistent losses being major concerns. However, strategic actions like selling FibroGen China and focusing on promising pipeline developments provide some optimism for future growth. Bearish technical indicators and unfavorable valuation further weigh down the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Health

The sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca is seen as a strategic transaction, enhancing financial resources and allowing focus on U.S. development of key assets.

Pipeline Development

FibroGen remains increasingly focused on progressing its primary therapeutic candidate, FG-3246, with multiple studies providing several opportunities for success.

Strategic Expansion

FibroGen has the option to acquire Fortis Therapeutics, which developed FG-3246, indicating a potential strategic expansion.

Negative Factors

Market Challenges

A combination of the majority of revenue being generated in ex.-U.S. markets, and the asset's previous failure in CKD-anemia in the U.S., is preventing traction with the investors.

Regulatory and Development Risks

Meeting with the FDA to discuss next steps for roxadustat in anemia associated with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome.

FibroGen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FibroGen, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs. The company is developing Roxadustat, an oral small molecule inhibitor of hypoxia inducible factor prolyl hydroxylases, which has completed Phase III clinical development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease in the United States, Europe, China, and Japan; and in Phase II/III development in China for anemia associated with myelodysplastic syndromes. It is also developing Pamrevlumab, a human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the activity of connective tissue growth factor that is in Phase III clinical development for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, pancreatic cancer, liver fibrosis, and diabetic kidney disease, as well as Phase III trial for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The company has collaboration agreements with Astellas Pharma Inc. and AstraZeneca AB. FibroGen, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

FibroGen generates revenue through a combination of product sales, licensing agreements, and collaborative partnerships. The company's primary revenue stream comes from the commercialization of roxadustat, especially in markets like China, where it has partnered with AstraZeneca for distribution. Additionally, FibroGen earns milestone payments and royalties from its partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies involved in the development and commercialization of its products. The company also benefits from research and development collaborations, which provide funding and shared resources to advance its pipeline projects. These partnerships are crucial for FibroGen's earnings as they help offset the high costs associated with drug development and regulatory approvals.

FibroGen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

FibroGen faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. The negative equity and cash flow issues reflect financial instability and operational inefficiencies, highlighting the need for strategic interventions to improve financial health.

Income Statement

FibroGen has experienced declining revenue over the past few years, with a significant drop in 2024 compared to previous years. This decline is coupled with persistent negative EBIT and net income, indicating operational challenges and profitability issues. The company also shows negative EBITDA, reflective of its struggles to manage costs effectively amidst falling revenues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high liabilities relative to assets, resulting in negative stockholders' equity, a concerning sign of financial instability. The absence of debt in 2024 is positive, but previous years show reliance on debt, contributing to financial stress. The negative equity ratio further highlights the precarious financial position, indicating significant leverage and risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistently negative, pointing to challenges in generating cash from core operations. Although free cash flow improved slightly in 2024, it remains negative, indicating cash burn. The cash flow to net income ratios highlight inefficient cash management and an inability to convert revenue into cash profits.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
29.62M	147.75M	140.73M	235.31M	176.32M
	Gross Profit
14.06M	128.90M	120.45M	222.44M	167.45M
	EBIT
-150.42M	-281.81M	-301.02M	-288.53M	-191.88M
	EBITDA
-142.43M	-261.40M	-282.82M	-274.80M	-164.28M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-153.10M	-284.23M	-295.23M	-291.03M	-189.29M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
50.48M	235.59M	422.01M	405.19M	686.54M
	Total Assets
214.53M	423.53M	610.09M	773.82M	826.84M
	Total Debt
73.09M	170.46M	89.89M	99.73M	37.72M
	Net Debt
-50.48M	56.77M	-65.81M	-71.49M	-640.67M
	Total Liabilities
398.16M	585.73M	611.57M	544.71M	385.39M
	Stockholders Equity
-183.63M	-204.17M	-21.45M	209.15M	422.18M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-138.26M	-317.54M	-184.67M	-112.42M	77.61M
	Operating Cash Flow
-138.00M	-315.02M	-145.93M	-82.23M	81.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
125.99M	153.66M	89.12M	-426.97M	452.49M
	Financing Cash Flow
-255.00K	122.75M	46.78M	-563.00K	13.34M

FibroGen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGEN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.31, below the 50-day MA of 0.41, and below the 200-day MA of 0.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FGEN.

FibroGen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXEL	79 Outperform	$10.00B	20.16	23.13%	―	18.49%	176.71%
REGN	78 Outperform	$62.43B	14.90	15.95%	0.15%	8.27%	10.35%
BMRN	78 Outperform	$11.44B	27.13	8.05%	―	17.35%	151.40%
GILD	75 Outperform	$132.77B	278.43	2.28%	2.91%	6.16%	-91.54%
VRTX	64 Neutral	$127.47B	―	-3.15%	―	11.64%	-114.72%
Sector *	50 Neutral	$5.51B	2.95	-43.70%	2.78%	16.94%	3.59%
FGEN	42 Neutral	$30.26M	―	60.38%	―	5.59%	83.59%

FibroGen Corporate Events

FibroGen Sells Subsidiary to AstraZeneca for $160M

On February 19, 2025, FibroGen entered into a share purchase agreement with AstraZeneca to sell its subsidiary, FibroGen International, for approximately $160 million. The sale includes all rights to Roxadustat in China, with the transaction expected to close by mid-2025, subject to regulatory approval. This move significantly strengthens FibroGen’s financial position, extending its cash runway into 2027 and allowing it to focus on advancing its oncology pipeline. The company plans to repay its term loan to Morgan Stanley Tactical Value upon closing, simplifying its capital structure.