First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) Risk Analysis

From time to time, the FASB, SEC and other regulatory agencies may change the financial accounting and reporting guidance that governs the preparation of our financial statements. These changes can be hard to predict and can materially impact how we manage, record and report our financial condition and results of operations. In some cases, we could be required to apply a new or revised standard retroactively, resulting in a requirement to restate prior period financial statements.

Our disclosure controls and procedures are designed to reasonably assure that information required to be disclosed by us in reports we file or submit under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ("Exchange Act") is accurately accumulated and communicated to management, and recorded, processed, summarized, and reported within the time periods specified in the SEC's rules and forms. We believe that any disclosure controls and procedures or internal controls and procedures, no matter how well conceived and operated, can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurance that the objectives of management's system of controls are met. These inherent limitations include the realities that judgments in decision making can be faulty, that alternative reasoned judgments can be drawn, that some information may be reported inaccurately because we must specifically rely upon the person providing such information or that breakdowns can occur because of a simple error or mistake. Additionally, controls can be circumvented by the individual acts of some persons, by collusion of two or more people or by an unauthorized override of the controls. Accordingly, because of the inherent limitations in management's system of controls, misstatements due to error or fraud may occur and not be detected.

We are a separate and distinct legal entity from our subsidiaries, notably the Bank. We receive substantially all of our revenue from dividends from our subsidiaries. These dividends are the principal source of funds to pay dividends on our common shares and interest and principal on outstanding debt. Various federal and/or state laws and regulations limit or restrict the amount of dividends that the Bank and certain of our non-bank subsidiaries may pay us. Additionally, if our subsidiaries' earnings are not sufficient to make dividend payments to us while maintaining adequate capital levels, we may not be able to make dividend payments to our common shareholders. As of December 31, 2024, the Bank had $255.9 million available to pay dividends to First Financial without prior regulatory approval. To enhance liquidity, we may borrow under credit facilities or from other sources. Turbulence in the capital and credit markets may cause many lenders and institutional investors to reduce or cease to provide funding to borrowers and, as a result, we may not be able to further increase liquidity through additional borrowings under these market conditions. Limitations on our ability to receive dividends from our subsidiaries or an inability to increase liquidity through additional borrowings, or inability to maintain, renew or replace existing credit facilities, could have a material effect on our liquidity and on our ability to pay dividends on our common shares and interest and principal on our debt. As of December 31, 2024, we had indebtedness of $1.1 billion which was a decrease from $1.3 billion in 2023 in large part due to an increase in deposits. If deposits were to decrease, we may need to incur additional indebtedness to ensure that we have adequate levels of liquidity.

The introduction, implementation, withdrawal, success and timing of business initiatives and strategies, including, but not limited to, the opening of new banking centers or entering into new product lines, may be less successful or may be different than anticipated, which could affect our business, financial condition and the results of our operations. The Bank makes certain projections and develops plans and strategies for its banking and financial products. If we do not accurately forecast demand for our banking and financial products, it could result in us incurring significant expenses without the anticipated increases in revenue, which could result in a material effect on the Bank's business, capital, and/or results of our operations.

When we sell mortgage loans, whether as whole loans or pursuant to a securitization, we are required to make customary representations and warranties to the purchaser about the mortgage loans and the manner in which they were originated. Our whole loan sale agreements require us to repurchase or substitute mortgage loans in the event we breach any of these representations or warranties including those that are breached as a result of misrepresentations or fraud by the borrowers. While we have taken steps to enhance our underwriting policies and procedures to protect against breaches of these representations and warranties in subsequent sales of mortgage loans, there can be no assurance that these steps will be effective or reduce risk associated with loans sold in the past. If the level of repurchase and indemnity activity becomes material, our liquidity, results of operations and financial condition may be affected.

Checking and savings account balances and other forms of client deposits, including uninsured deposits, could decrease if clients perceive alternative investments as providing superior expected returns. We regularly perform liquidity stress testing and sensitivity analyses of deposit assumptions. Both remain critical given recent trends in deposit balance and interest rate movements, as well as uncertainty regarding depositor behavior moving forward. Consumers may move money out of bank deposits in favor of other investments, including digital assets or cryptocurrency or money market funds, or into alternative financial services providers. When clients move money out of bank deposits in favor of alternative investments or to alternative financial services providers, we can lose a relatively inexpensive source of funds, increasing our funding costs, and impacting the results of our operations. Sound liquidity risk management, including processes that ensure sufficient committed capacity to meet contingent liquidity needs, remains critical.

We offer a variety of secured loans, including commercial lines of credit, commercial term loans, real estate, construction, home equity, consumer and other loans and hold as investments a number of mortgage-backed securities, including collateralized mortgage obligations. Many of our loans are secured by real estate (both residential and commercial) within our market area. A major change in the real estate market, such as deterioration in the value of collateral, or in the local or national economy, could affect our customers' ability to pay these loans, which in turn could impact our results of operations and financial condition. Additionally, increases in unemployment also may affect the ability of certain clients to repay loans and the financial results of commercial clients in localities with higher unemployment, may result in loan defaults and foreclosures and may impair the value of our collateral. Increases in loan defaults may also lead to additional losses in our investments in mortgage-backed securities, including collateralized mortgage obligations. In 2024, we experienced losses in mortgage-backed securities primarily due to a $9.7 million impairment loss on two commercial mortgage backed securities where the underlying collateral consisted of skilled nursing facilities with credit deterioration, which we expect to sell in the near term. This is especially relevant in light of the ongoing inflationary pressures and potential impact of trade wars and tariffs to increase those inflationary pressures. Loan defaults and foreclosures are unavoidable in the banking industry, and we try to limit our exposure to this risk by monitoring carefully our extensions of credit. In 2024, our classified asset balances increased $83.1 million, driven by a $45.0 million asset that was recorded following the mutually agreed upon termination of a foreign exchange trade, as well as the downgrade of three commercial real estate loans, one commercial and industrial loan and one construction loan. Continued increases in our classified asset balances and/or an increase in loan defaults may also increase our costs associated with servicing these loans, foreclosing on properties and costs of property maintenance on foreclosed properties. We cannot fully eliminate credit risk, and as a result, credit losses may increase in the future and impact our financial condition and results of operations.

Declines in demand for residential mortgage loans, changed government laws or regulations or other disruptions in the secondary market for residential mortgage loans can limit the market for and liquidity of many mortgage loans that we seek to sell in the secondary market. The effects of these disruptions to the secondary market for residential morgage loans, as well as reductions in residential real estate market prices and declining home sales, could affect the value of collateral securing mortgage loans that we hold, income generated from mortgage loan originations and profits on sales of mortgage loans in the secondary market. Such conditions could result in higher losses or charge-offs in our mortgage loan portfolio and other lines of business. Declines in real estate values, home sale volumes, financial stress on borrowers as a result of job losses, interest rate resets on adjustable rate mortgage loans or other factors, either independently or in the aggregate could have further effects on borrowers that could result in higher delinquencies and greater charge-offs in future periods, which would affect our financial condition or results of operations. A decline in home values or overall economic weakness could also have an impact upon the value of real estate or other assets which we own upon foreclosing a loan and our ability to realize value on such assets.

Since lending is one of our primary business activities, the credit quality of our portfolio can have a significant impact on our earnings. We estimate and establish reserves for credit risks we reasonably expect to occur over the expected life of our loan portfolio. This process, which is critical to our financial results and condition, requires difficult, subjective and complex judgments, including reviews of economic conditions and how these economic conditions might impair the ability of our borrowers to repay their loans. As is the case with any such assessments, there is always the chance that we will fail to identify the proper factors, that we will fail to accurately estimate the impacts of factors that we identify, or that we fail to accurately estimate the aggregate impacts of factors that we identify, all of which could impact the credit quality of our portfolio and have an impact on the results of operations. In addition, large loans, letters of credit and contracts with individual counterparties in our portfolio magnify the credit risk that we face, as the impact of large borrowers and counterparties not repaying their loans or performing according to the terms of their contracts has a disproportionately significant impact on our credit losses, reserves and the results of operations.

In deciding whether to extend credit or enter into other transactions with clients and counterparties, we may rely on information furnished by or on behalf of clients and counterparties, including financial statements and other financial information. We also may rely on representations of clients and counterparties as to the accuracy and completeness of that information and, with respect to financial statements, on reports of independent auditors. Nonetheless, in the near-term, higher interest rates along with elevated costs are expected to weigh on firms' profit margins. Although we regularly review our credit exposure to specific clients and counterparties and to specific industries that we believe may present credit concerns, default risk may arise from events or circumstances that are difficult to detect, such as fraud. Moreover, such circumstances, including fraud, may become more likely to occur or be detected in periods of general economic uncertainty. We may also fail to receive full information with respect to the risks of a counterparty. In addition, in cases where we have extended credit against collateral and/or guarantees, we may find that we are under-secured, for example, as a result of sudden declines in market values that reduce the value of collateral or due to fraud with respect to such collateral or the ability of a guarantor to fulfill its financial obligations. If such events or circumstances were to occur, it could result in a potential loss of revenue, increase in costs and have an effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

We maintain an allowance for credit losses that we believe is a reasonable estimate of the expected losses over the expected life of the loan portfolio based on a CECL model. We believe that our allowance for credit losses is maintained at a level adequate to absorb expected losses over the life of the loans in the loan portfolio as of the corresponding balance sheet date. However, our allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient to cover actual credit losses, and future provision for credit losses could materially affect our operating results. The accounting measurements related to the allowance for credit losses require significant estimates which are subject to uncertainty and change related to new information and changing circumstances. Management estimates the allowance using relevant available information from both internal and external sources, relating to past events, current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts. Historical credit loss experience paired with economic forecasts provide the basis for the quantitatively modeled estimation of expected credit losses. We adjust our quantitative model, as necessary, to reflect conditions not already considered by such model. Our estimates of the risk of loss and amount of loss on any loan are complicated by the significant uncertainties surrounding our borrowers' abilities to successfully execute their business models through changing economic environments, competitive challenges and other factors. Because of the degree of uncertainty and susceptibility of these factors to change, our actual losses may vary from our current estimates. In addition, bank regulators periodically review our allowance for credit losses and may require us to increase our provision for credit losses or recognize further loan charge-offs. The accounting guidance requires banks to record, at the time of origination, credit losses expected throughout the life of the asset on loans, leases and held-to-maturity debt securities. Under the CECL model, we are required to use historical information, current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts to estimate the expected credit losses. If the methodologies and assumptions we use in the CECL model prove to be incorrect, or inadequate, the allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient, resulting in the need for additional allowance for credit losses to be established, which could have a material adverse impact on our financial condition and results of operations. We adopted the CECL accounting guidance in 2020 and recognized a one-time cumulative effect adjustment to our allowance for credit losses and retained earnings as of January 1, 2020. Concurrent with the enactment of the CARES Act, federal bank regulatory agencies issued an interim final rule that delayed the estimated impact on regulatory capital resulting from the adoption of CECL. The interim final rule provided banking organizations that implemented CECL prior to the end of 2020 the option to delay for two years the estimated impact of CECL on regulatory capital relative to regulatory capital determined under the prior incurred loss methodology, followed by a three-year transition period to phase out the aggregate amount of capital benefit provided during the initial two-year delay. We adopted CECL in the first quarter of 2020, including the regulatory phase-in. As a result of CECL, our financial results may be negatively affected as soon as weak or deteriorating economic conditions are forecasted and alter our expectations for credit losses. In 2022, we recorded $6.7 million of provision expense as our loan portfolio grew and the overall duration of the portfolio extended due to rising interest rates. In 2023, we recorded $43.1 million of provision expense as our loan portfolio grew, net charge-offs increased and the overall duration of the portfolio extended due to rising interest rates and slower loan prepayments. In 2024, we recorded $49.2 million of provision expense as our loan portfolio grew and the overall duration of the portfolio extended due slower loan prepayments. Depending upon future circumstances, as well as broader macroeconomic shifts, we may incur significant provision expense for credit losses in future periods.

The 2023 bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank in California, Signature Bank in New York, and First Republic Bank in California, and the decision of Silvergate Bank in California to voluntarily liquidate its assets and wind down operations have caused uncertainty in the investor community and negative confidence among bank customers generally. While we do not believe that the circumstances of these banks' failures and liquidations are indicators of broader issues with the banking system, the failures may reduce customer confidence, affect sources of funding and liquidity, increase regulatory requirements and costs, adversely affect financial markets and/or have a lasting negative reputational ramification for the financial services industry, including us. These bank failures led to volatility and declines in the market for bank stocks and questions about depositor confidence in depository institutions, which in turn led to a greater focus by institutions, investors, and regulators on the on-balance sheet liquidity of and funding sources for financial institutions and the composition of its deposits. Notwithstanding, our efforts to promote deposit insurance coverage with our customers and otherwise effectively manage our liquidity, deposit portfolio retention, and other related matters, our financial condition, results of operation, and stock price may be adversely affected by future negative events within the banking sector and adverse customer or investor responses to such events.

The credit rating agencies assessing our creditworthiness regularly evaluate us, and provide a credit rating. Credit ratings are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength and ability to generate earnings, as well as factors not entirely within our control, including changes in rating methodologies and conditions affecting the financial services industry and the economy as a whole. There can be no assurance that we will maintain our current credit rating. A downgrade of the credit rating of the Company could affect our access to liquidity and capital, and could significantly increase our cost of funds, trigger additional collateral or funding requirements and decrease the number of investors and counterparties willing to lend to us or purchase our securities. This could affect our growth, profitability, financial condition, including liquidity, and the results of our operations.