Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $45.05B
• Dividend Yield: 1.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 21.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.68
• Revenue Growth: 10.71%
• EPS Growth: 1.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 28,500
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 1.30
• Shares Outstanding: 1,437,073,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 28,047,767
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,832,964
• PEG Ratio: 12.39
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.27
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 10.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $47.18
• Price Target Upside: 41.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

Freeport-McMoRan's stock score is primarily supported by strong financial performance, characterized by robust profitability and efficient operations. However, technical analysis reveals a bearish trend with the stock trading below key moving averages. The valuation indicates potential overvaluation, offsetting some of the financial strengths. The earnings call provided a balanced view with optimism about growth opportunities tempered by potential challenges. Overall, while the financial position is solid, market conditions and valuation concerns warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Copper Pricing

Freeport-McMoRan expects a higher realized copper price of $4.40 per pound, which is above the consensus estimate and could lead to better financial performance.

Operational Improvements

Freeport-McMoRan's Free Cash Flow and capital return potential is clearly improving due to operational improvements and potential tariffs.

Tariffs and Pricing

Potential tariffs on US copper imports could result in significant incremental profits for Freeport-McMoRan, supported by premium pricing and favorable US-based operations.

Negative Factors

Cost Increases

Operational updates indicate higher net cash costs by approximately 5% due to lower gold sales in Indonesia.

Gold Sales

Gold sales are expected to be significantly lower than previous guidance, which could impact the company's revenue from gold.

Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company also operates a portfolio of oil and gas properties primarily located in offshore California and the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 135 wells. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Freeport-McMoRan generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, gold, and molybdenum, which are extracted from its mining operations. Copper is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, driven by its widespread use in electrical equipment, construction, and various industrial applications. Gold and molybdenum, valuable by-products of copper mining, also provide significant revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by commodity prices, which are determined by global supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Freeport-McMoRan engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize its operations and expand its resources, such as its collaboration with the Indonesian government for the Grasberg mine. The company's financial performance is also affected by operational efficiencies, cost management strategies, and investments in sustainable mining practices.

Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Freeport-McMoRan exhibits strong financial performance across its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow. The company demonstrates robust revenue and profit growth, with notable profitability metrics. The balance sheet is stable, with a strong equity base and manageable debt levels. Cash flow generation is solid, supporting future investments.

Income Statement

Freeport-McMoRan demonstrates strong financial performance with a notable growth trajectory. The company achieved a revenue growth rate of 11.38% in 2024 and an impressive net profit margin of 37.03%, indicating robust profitability. Gross profit margin stands at 39.15%, reflecting effective cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 26.95% and 34.68% respectively, highlighting operational efficiency. Despite these strengths, the company should continue monitoring its growth pace to sustain long-term performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Freeport-McMoRan shows a stable leverage position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51, indicating a manageable level of debt. The equity ratio is 32.05%, illustrating a strong equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity (ROE) is notably high at 53.63%, demonstrating excellent returns to shareholders. While the company maintains a solid financial position, careful management of liabilities and continued strengthening of the equity base will be crucial for future stability.

Cash Flow

Freeport-McMoRan's cash flow statement reveals robust cash generation capabilities, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.76 and a significant free cash flow growth rate of 57.36% in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.76, highlighting efficient cash conversion. The strong cash flow underscores the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives. However, maintaining this momentum will be essential to support future capital expenditures and strategic investments.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
25.45B	22.86B	22.78B	22.84B	14.20B
	Gross Profit
7.66B	7.16B	7.69B	8.81B	2.54B
	EBIT
6.86B	6.22B	7.04B	8.37B	2.44B
	EBITDA
8.83B	8.59B	9.29B	10.26B	3.92B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.89B	1.84B	3.47B	4.31B	853.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.92B	4.76B	8.15B	8.07B	3.66B
	Total Assets
54.85B	52.51B	51.09B	48.02B	42.14B
	Total Debt
8.95B	9.85B	10.62B	9.45B	9.71B
	Net Debt
5.03B	5.09B	2.47B	1.38B	6.05B
	Total Liabilities
26.07B	25.20B	26.22B	25.00B	23.48B
	Stockholders Equity
17.58B	16.69B	15.55B	13.98B	10.17B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.35B	455.00M	1.67B	5.60B	1.06B
	Operating Cash Flow
7.16B	5.28B	5.14B	7.71B	3.02B
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.03B	-4.96B	-3.44B	-1.96B	-1.26B
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.28B	-2.65B	-1.62B	-1.34B	-128.00M

Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 33.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.00, below the 50-day MA of 37.22, and below the 200-day MA of 42.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FCX.

Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VALE	74 Outperform	$38.43B	6.25	16.72%	8.10%	-8.71%	-22.75%
RIO	74 Outperform	$94.84B	7.71	20.93%	7.03%	-0.81%	14.59%
MT	73 Outperform	$21.28B	15.00	2.60%	1.58%	-8.56%	68.36%
SCCO	70 Outperform	$67.38B	19.70	40.71%	2.33%	15.54%	39.64%
FCX	66 Neutral	$45.05B	24.06	10.92%	1.80%	10.71%	1.94%
NEM	66 Neutral	$57.42B	17.83	11.13%	1.82%	58.27%	―
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.49B	-2.97	-22.82%	3.51%	4.13%	-28.53%

Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events

Freeport-McMoRan Updates on Q1 2025 Operations

On March 31, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan provided an operational update for the first quarter of 2025, indicating that copper and gold production met expectations. However, gold sales were impacted by shipment timing in Indonesia, although no material effect on annual sales guidance is anticipated. The company resumed concentrate export shipments from Indonesia after regulatory approvals and continues to ramp up production at its new precious metals refinery. Despite higher unit net cash costs due to shipment timing, the company expects its consolidated copper sales to align with previous guidance and anticipates higher realized copper prices compared to the London Metal Exchange average.

Freeport-McMoRan Reports Strong Q4 2024 Financial Performance

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Freeport-McMoRan reported a net income attributable to common stock of $274 million, alongside an adjusted net income of $450 million. The company achieved solid operating performance with sales volumes of copper and gold exceeding guidance, and unit net cash costs falling below expectations. Key developments include the start-up of the Indonesia Precious Metals Refinery and plans for a smelter start-up by mid-2025, indicating a strong financial position and favorable market outlook. The company also repaid $0.7 billion in maturing senior notes and ended the year with consolidated debt of $8.9 billion.