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Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSE:FCX
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Freeport-McMoRan
(NYSE:FCX)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(14.38% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
FCX scores well on financial resilience (very low leverage and solid cash generation) and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The main drag is valuation (high P/E with a modest yield), while the earnings call and recent Grasberg-rights MOU add supportive medium-term upside but with execution and regulatory follow-through risks.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Freeport's materially strengthened balance sheet with debt-to-equity around 0.02 provides durable financial flexibility. Low leverage reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, supports cyclical capex, dividends and buybacks, and cushions the company through commodity cycles over months to years.
Cash Generation
Consistent free-cash-flow generation equaling net income demonstrates sustainable cash conversion from mining operations. Strong FCF enables funding of capex, growth projects and shareholder returns while preserving optionality through commodity volatility and multiyear cycles.
Reserve Base & Low-Cost Growth Options
Large reserve additions, notably >17bn lbs at El Abra, and the leach initiative create durable low-cost growth optionality. Long-life resources plus scalable leach production expand future supply capacity and support multi-year production growth and cost dilution if execution proceeds.
Negative Factors
Grasberg Operational & Regulatory Uncertainty
The Grasberg mudflow and multi‑block restart phasing create multi-year operational uncertainty. Delays or additional remediation at PB1C could sustain volume and cost impacts, undermining medium-term production forecasts and cash flow despite progress on PB2/PB3.
Project Execution and CapEx Risk (Baghdad)
Large discretionary projects like Baghdad carry material execution and cost risks. Ongoing scope and vendor-price refinement plus inflation and labor constraints can push deadlines and raise capital intensity, threatening projected returns and tying up cash over multiple years.
Rising Unit Costs in South America
Sustained higher unit costs in South America, driven by labor and energy, weaken margins and increase sensitivity to lower copper prices. Achieving targeted cost reductions depends on successful scaling of leach and automation programs, making margin recovery contingent on execution.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$94.75B
Dividend Yield1.25%
Average Volume (3M)20.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.3
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue Growth2.83%
EPS Growth3.39%
CountryUS
Employees28,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding1,437,201,700
10 Day Avg. Volume16,263,725
30 Day Avg. Volume20,929,747
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.85
P/FCF Ratio65.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$65.73Price Target Upside0.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)2.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.78B
Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFreeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company also operates a portfolio of oil and gas properties primarily located in offshore California and the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 135 wells. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyFCX generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of copper, gold, and molybdenum. Copper is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, followed by gold and molybdenum. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, which can fluctuate based on market demand and supply dynamics. FCX also engages in trading activities to optimize its revenue streams. Significant partnerships with other mining companies and strategic joint ventures further enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Additionally, the company benefits from long-term contracts and customer relationships in the metals industry, which provide a stable revenue base.
Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear operational recovery momentum (notably progress toward Grasberg PB2/PB3 restart), strong market fundamentals with copper prices materially higher year-to-date (~30% above 2025 average), robust U.S. performance (production +5% and Q4 U.S. operating income 3.5x year-ago), and significant upside from the leach initiative and large reserve additions (including >17 billion pounds at El Abra). These positives are tempered by ongoing impacts from the Grasberg mudflow (~10% volume hit in 2025), execution risks (PB1C uncertainty, autonomous haul truck performance), regional cost pressures (South America unit costs ~$2.57/lb), and capex/project cost uncertainty for Baghdad expansion. On balance, highlights notably outweigh the lowlights given price strength, cash-flow leverage, reserve growth, and concrete restart progress, supporting a constructive near- to medium-term outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Results and EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was nearly $10 billion (similar to 2024). Modeled annual EBITDA for 2027-2028 ranges from ~$11 billion at $4/lb copper to >$19 billion at $6/lb copper, with operating cash flow ~$8 billion to >$14 billion across that price range.
Cost Discipline and Guidance Accuracy
Consolidated unit net cash cost for 2025 was $1.65 per pound, within ~3% of guidance for the year despite the Grasberg incident that reduced volumes. Company expects unit net cash costs averaging $1.75/lb for 2026 with second-half costs ~ $1.25/lb.
Copper Price Strength
2025 LME copper averaged $4.51/lb (range $3.87–$5.68). Year-to-date 2026 LME prices were ~30% higher than the 2025 average, materially improving near-term cash flow outlook and leverage to copper (each $0.10/lb change ≈ $400 million annual EBITDA).
U.S. Operating Performance
U.S. production increased ~5% versus the year-ago fourth quarter and year-over-year 2025 vs 2024. U.S. operating income in Q4 was 3.5x the level of Q4 2024, demonstrating strong price leverage and conversion to the bottom line.
Progress on Grasberg Restart (PB2 and PB3)
Deep MLZ and Bigas mines restarted in Q4. Mud removal for PB2 and PB3 is substantially complete (~97% of required mud removal for PB2/PB3), protective plugs being installed, infrastructure repairs expected by quarter-end, and on track for phased restart beginning in Q2 2026 to restore ~85% of district production in H2 2026.
Leach Initiative — Near-Term Low-Cost Growth
Leach initiative produced >200 million pounds of copper in 2025, targeting 300 million pounds in 2026 (50% increase YoY), 400 million in 2027, and a path to 800 million pounds by 2030. Field deployment of proprietary additives and planned heated-solution injection tests in 2026 are described as pivotal for scaling.
Reserve Additions and Project Optionality (El Abra and Others)
Reserve additions in 2025 substantially exceeded production, including >17 billion pounds of copper added for the El Abra expansion (previously a resource). Significant long-life reserves and resources support multiple growth options across The Americas and Indonesia.
Capital Allocation, Cash Returns and Balance Sheet Strength
2025 capex was $3.9 billion ( ~$0.5 billion below plan). 2026–2027 capex expected ~$4.3–$4.5 billion annually. Company has returned $5.7 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, maintains investment-grade ratings, no significant debt maturities in 2026, and flexibility to fund growth and returns.
Negative Updates
Grasberg Incident Impact and PB1 Uncertainty
September mudflow at PTFI reduced annual copper volumes by ~10% versus plan for 2025. While PB2/PB3 are on track for Q2 2026 startup, PB1S and PB1C are targeted for 2027 with PB1C restart subject to ongoing mitigation work and investigation recommendations — introducing multi-year operational uncertainty for that block.
Rising Unit Costs in South America
Fourth quarter unit net cash cost in South America averaged $2.57/lb and is expected to be similar (~$2.58/lb) in 2026. Management attributes increases to higher labor and energy costs and a weaker U.S. dollar versus prior periods.
Execution Risk on U.S. Cost Reduction Targets
U.S. unit costs were near $3.10/lb last year and are guided to ~ $3.00/lb for 2026 with a target of $2.50/lb in 2027 — largely dependent on successfully scaling the leach program and realizing efficiency gains (risk if leach scale or automation gains underperform).
Indonesia Operational and Timing Constraints
Operations in Indonesia ran on a limited basis in Q4; one smelter resumed late in the year while the new smelter remained in standby with restart expected later in the year. Q4 sales exceeded production by ~60 million pounds due to shipment timing — reflecting temporary timing/operational constraints.
Autonomous Haul Truck Performance Shortfalls
Conversion of the Baghdad haul truck fleet to autonomous is underway but management noted the autonomous fleet has not yet delivered expected performance and additional work is required to reach targeted productivity — a risk to near-term efficiency gains.
CapEx Uncertainty and Project Execution Risk (Baghdad 2X)
Baghdad expansion capex estimate of ~$3.5 billion (based on 2023 study) is under refinement; company added $150 million in 2026 engineering spend to secure fixed vendor pricing and expects to make an investment decision later in the year. Cost inflation, tariffs, vendor pricing and labor constraints could increase project costs and timing risk; project economics cited as needing ~ $4/lb copper to justify investment.
Rising Exchange Inventories Despite Price Rally
Global exchange inventories of copper rose in recent months even as LME prices increased sharply (~30% YTD vs 2025 avg), creating potential near-term market ambiguity and signaling that price moves may be partially driven by sentiment/speculation rather than immediate physical tightness.
Company Guidance
Freeport's 2026 guidance calls for a ~1 billion‑pound quarterly run rate, consolidated unit net cash costs of about $1.75/lb for 2026 (assumes $4,000/oz gold and $20/lb moly) with H1 above the annual average and H2 near $1.25/lb; the company includes 250–300M lbs of leach production in 2026 (it produced >200M in 2025, is targeting ~300M in 2026, ~400M in 2027 and 800M by 2030). Modeled 2027–28 results show EBITDA of roughly $11B at $4/lb copper to >$19B at $6/lb (operating cash flow ≈ $8B–$14B), with sensitivities of ≈ $400M EBITDA per $0.10/lb copper and ≈ $120M EBITDA per $100/oz gold. CapEx is forecast at $4.3–4.5B in 2026–27 (2025 capex $3.9B) with discretionary spend of ~$1.6–1.7B/yr and a $150M 2026 add for the Baghdad study; Grasberg’s phased restart targets PB2/PB3 in Q2 2026 to restore ~85% district production in H2 2026 (PB1S/PB1C targeted in 2027); reserves were increased by >17 billion lbs at El Abra, and market context: LME averaged $4.51/lb in 2025 (range $3.87–$5.68) and 2026 YTD prices are ~30% above the 2025 average.Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials look resilient: a very strong balance sheet with extremely low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.02) supports downturn flexibility, while cash generation is solid (FCF-to-net-income ~1.0) with strong recent FCF growth. Offsets include slightly negative recent revenue growth, margin compression versus 2021–2022 highs, and historically volatile free cash flow typical of a cyclical, capital-intensive miner.Income Statement
Profitability remains solid, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin at ~10.7% and strong operating profitability (EBIT margin ~25%). However, revenue growth turned slightly negative in the latest period and margins have compressed versus 2021–2022 highs, pointing to a less favorable pricing/cycle backdrop despite still-healthy earnings power.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet has strengthened materially: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) leverage is very low (debt-to-equity ~0.02) versus much higher levels in 2020–2024, and equity has grown. Returns on equity are healthy (TTM ~14.6%), though below prior-cycle peaks (notably 2021–2022), implying improved resilience even if peak profitability has moderated.90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with free cash flow matching net income (free cash flow to net income = 1.0) and sharp free-cash-flow growth versus the prior year. A watch item is that operating cash flow is slightly below EBIT (coverage ~0.93) in TTM, and free cash flow has been volatile historically (very weak in 2023), consistent with a cyclical, capital-intensive business.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.74B | 25.45B | 22.71B | 23.33B | 22.36B |
| Gross Profit | 6.95B | 7.50B | 6.88B | 8.09B | 8.29B |
| EBITDA | 8.76B | 9.47B | 8.59B | 9.29B | 10.26B |
| Net Income | 2.20B | 1.88B | 1.84B | 3.46B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 58.17B | 54.85B | 52.51B | 51.09B | 48.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.05B | 3.92B | 5.97B | 8.15B | 8.07B |
| Total Debt | 11.50B | 9.74B | 10.20B | 10.95B | 9.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.40B | 26.07B | 25.20B | 26.22B | 25.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.90B | 17.58B | 16.69B | 15.55B | 13.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.12B | 2.35B | 455.00M | 1.67B | 5.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.61B | 7.16B | 5.28B | 5.14B | 7.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.47B | -5.03B | -4.96B | -3.25B | -1.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.88B | -3.28B | -2.65B | -1.81B | -1.52B |
Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis
Positive
65.57
Price Trends
60.00
Positive
51.16
Positive
46.61
Positive
Market Momentum
2.15
Positive
56.52
Neutral
66.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.40, above the 50-day MA of 60.00, and above the 200-day MA of 46.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCX.
Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $94.75B | 33.25 | 11.98% | 1.25% | 2.83% | 3.39% | |
72 Outperform | $128.93B | 15.59 | 22.21% | 0.95% | 26.25% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $162.26B | 13.01 | 17.00% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $168.92B | 27.74 | 42.90% | 2.07% | 12.70% | 25.51% | |
68 Neutral | $68.60B | 22.50 | 6.88% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
65 Neutral | $43.58B | 11.03 | 6.12% | 1.03% | -4.51% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
65.93
28.77
77.41%
MT
ArcelorMittal
61.16
27.75
83.04%
NEM
Newmont Mining
119.37
76.01
175.33%
RIO
Rio Tinto
96.25
36.00
59.74%
SCCO
Southern Copper
206.66
121.49
142.64%
VALE
Vale SA
16.06
7.33
83.92%
Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Freeport-McMoRan Advances Grasberg Rights with Indonesian MOU
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan announced a Memorandum of Understanding with the Indonesian government to extend PT Freeport Indonesia’s life-of-resource operating rights in the Grasberg minerals district. The amended special mining business license is intended to secure long-term access to one of the world’s most significant copper and gold deposits, reinforcing Grasberg’s role in Freeport’s global portfolio.
Under the MOU, PT Freeport Indonesia will boost community support in Papua, including funding a new hospital and two medical education facilities. The company will also increase exploration spending to develop long-term resources and expansion options, while maintaining existing governance and operating structures over the life of the resource.
The agreement emphasizes domestic downstreaming through local sales of refined copper, precious metals, sulfuric acid and other products, and positions the company to expand refined copper marketing to the U.S. if additional supply is needed. Freeport will transfer a 12% stake in PT Freeport Indonesia to government interests in 2041 at no cost, while retaining 48.76% ownership through 2041 and about 37% from 2042, aligning Indonesian ownership with long-term operational continuity.
The extension framework underscores the strategic importance of Grasberg to both Indonesia and Freeport-McMoRan, balancing state participation, local development and secure long-term resource access. The agreed terms remain contingent on the Indonesian government issuing an amended mining license, for which PT Freeport Indonesia plans to complete its extension application expeditiously.
The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan posts Q4 2025 results, plans Grasberg restart
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income attributable to common stock of $406 million, or $0.28 per share, and adjusted net income of $688 million, or $0.47 per share, reflecting after-tax charges tied mainly to the September 2025 mud rush incident at PT Freeport Indonesia and legacy oil and gas assets. Fourth-quarter production reached 640 million pounds of copper, 65,000 ounces of gold and 25 million pounds of molybdenum, with full-year 2025 output of 3.4 billion pounds of copper, 1.0 million ounces of gold and 92 million pounds of molybdenum, while sales volumes and unit net cash costs came in better than October 2025 estimates. Operating cash flow for 2025 totaled $5.6 billion, capital expenditures reached $4.5 billion, and year-end 2025 net debt stood at $2.3 billion excluding project-related Indonesian downstream debt, underscoring a relatively strong balance sheet as Freeport advances major mining projects and prepares a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine beginning in the second quarter of 2026.
The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.