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TUI AG (DE:TUI1)
:TUI1
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TUI AG
(XETRA:TUI1)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
€8.50
▲(8.28% Upside)
TUI AG's overall stock score is driven by its strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation, which are offset by concerns over financial leverage and bearish technical indicators. The company's strategic initiatives and strong segments provide a positive outlook, but high debt levels and weak market momentum present risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
TUI's record Q3 results with a 7% revenue increase highlight strong operational performance and market demand, supporting long-term growth.
Cruise Segment Success
The cruise segment's success, with full bookings and high occupancy, indicates robust demand and effective capacity management, bolstering future revenue.
Guidance Upgrade
Upgraded EBIT guidance reflects management's confidence in sustained profitability and strategic execution, enhancing investor confidence.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses risks to financial stability, potentially limiting flexibility in downturns and increasing vulnerability to interest rate changes.
Challenges in Markets + Airline Segment
Decline in summer bookings and external disruptions in the airline segment may affect revenue stability and require strategic adjustments.
Cash Flow Management
Negative free cash flow growth indicates potential issues in cash generation, affecting the company's ability to invest and reduce debt.
TUI AG (TUI1) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€3.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth8.95%
EPS Growth22.96%
CountryDE
Employees53,959
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding507,431,030
10 Day Avg. Volume2,767,712
30 Day Avg. Volume2,625,922
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€10.13Price Target Upside29.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
TUI AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services worldwide. It operates hotels and resorts under the Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, Blue Diamond, TUI Suneo, and TUI Magic Life brands. The company is also involved in the tour operation and airlines businesses. In addition, it operates cruise liners. The company operates a fleet of 1,600 travel agencies and online portals; 5 airlines with approximately 150 aircraft; and 15 cruise liners, as well as approximately 400 hotels. The company was formerly known as Preussag AG and changed its name to TUI AG in June 2002. TUI AG is headquartered in Hanover, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyTUI AG generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around its travel and tourism services. The company's core revenue sources include package holiday sales, which combine flights, accommodations, and other services, and direct sales from its airline operations. Additionally, TUI earns revenue from its hotel and resort businesses, which include both owned and managed properties. The cruise segment is another significant contributor, with TUI operating several cruise lines that offer vacation packages at sea. The company also benefits from ancillary services such as travel insurance, excursions, and car rentals. Strategic partnerships with airlines, local service providers, and technology platforms enhance TUI's offerings and operational efficiency, further bolstering its revenue potential.
TUI AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
TUI's earnings call presented a strong overall performance, particularly in its Holiday Experiences and Cruise segments, with record results and upgraded guidance. However, challenges in the Markets + Airline segment and certain regional performances were notable lowlights. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and strong segments maintain a positive outlook.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q3 Results
Q3 delivered the best ever result for TUI with EBIT up to EUR 321 million, the highest Q3 result ever. Revenue increased by 7%.
Guidance Upgrade
TUI raised its full year '25 underlying EBIT guidance to 9% to 11% at constant currency.
Strong Performance in Holiday Experiences
Revenue up by 8%, driven by record Hotels and Cruise results. Occupancy rates and daily rates increased significantly.
Promissory Note Issuance
TUI issued a promissory note of around EUR 250 million at a very favorable coupon, showing trust in the credit market.
Cruise Segment Success
Significant improvement in the Cruise segment, with capacity and occupancy increases. Cruises are fully booked, with occupancy above 100%.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Markets + Airline Segment
Summer bookings down by 2%, with significant impact from heatwaves and Middle East conflict. Germany bookings decreased by 5%.
Disappointment in Belgium and Netherlands
Underperformance in these regions compared to expectations, requiring a change in business model.
Impact of Foreign Exchange
FX volatility, particularly with the British pound, negatively impacted earnings, with a EUR 10 million headwind in Q3.
Company Guidance
During the TUI Group's FY '25 9 Months Results Call, the company presented a strong performance for the third quarter with several important metrics highlighted. Revenue increased by 7%, while EBIT rose to EUR 321 million, marking the highest Q3 result ever. The company's Hotels and Cruise segments were key drivers, contributing to an 8% rise in revenue and a EUR 150 million EBIT increase at constant currency. The company also raised its full-year EBIT guidance to between 9% and 11% at constant currency. The Markets + Airline transformation is accelerating, with summer bookings down by 2% but average selling prices (ASP) holding up by 3%. Additionally, there was a 40% increase in app sales, now at 10.5%, and a significant improvement in the Cruise segment due to operational performance and absence of prior disruptions. TUI also reported a EUR 200 million improvement in net debt, driven by financial discipline, and highlighted a positive cash flow situation despite some working capital softness. The company is optimistic about the winter season and is implementing strategic changes to strengthen future performance, including a focus on differentiated products and dynamic packaging.TUI AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
TUI AG is showing a strong financial recovery with significant improvements in revenue and profitability. The income statement reflects impressive growth and margin improvements, but the balance sheet shows high leverage and low equity, posing potential risks. Cash flow generation is strong, supporting recovery and operational needs, though challenges in financing and investing activities remain.Income Statement
The income statement shows a strong recovery trajectory with significant improvements in revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have seen consistent improvement, indicating effective cost management and increased revenue from operations. The revenue growth rate is impressive, reflecting a robust recovery post-pandemic. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, showcasing operational efficiency gains. However, the net income levels are still recovering from the losses seen in prior years.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. The equity ratio is low, reflecting a weak equity position. However, improvements in stockholders' equity and a trend towards stabilizing liabilities are positive signs. The return on equity has improved significantly, driven by net income recovery, but the overall financial leverage remains a concern.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates a positive trend with substantial free cash flow generation and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow growth rate is healthy, reflecting improved cash management and operational efficiency. The company has managed to sustain positive operating cash flows, which is crucial for funding operations and managing debt. However, there are still concerns regarding investing and financing cash flows, indicating potential challenges in capital expenditure and financing activities.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.20B | 23.17B | 20.67B | 16.54B | 4.73B | 7.94B |
| Gross Profit | 2.06B | 1.95B | 1.61B | 931.60M | -1.22B | -1.98B |
| EBITDA | 2.39B | 2.22B | 1.44B | 1.08B | -1.27B | -1.67B |
| Net Income | 663.00M | 507.10M | 305.80M | -212.60M | -2.48B | -3.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.98B | 17.42B | 16.15B | 15.26B | 14.16B | 15.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.69B | 2.21B | 2.11B | 1.82B | 1.09B | 924.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.55B | 4.54B | 4.22B | 5.17B | 6.48B | 3.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.37B | 15.64B | 14.21B | 14.61B | 14.57B | 15.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 711.70M | 956.40M | 1.12B | -141.60M | -1.09B | -448.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 996.60M | 1.20B | 971.10M | 1.56B | -451.00M | -3.36B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.80B | 1.91B | 1.64B | 2.08B | -151.30M | -2.77B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -720.00M | -604.30M | -492.20M | -308.20M | 704.70M | 161.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -919.40M | -531.40M | -834.60M | -1.63B | -233.50M | 2.11B |
TUI AG Technical Analysis
Negative
7.85
Price Trends
8.25
Negative
7.73
Positive
7.52
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
39.45
Neutral
24.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TUI1, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.09, below the 50-day MA of 8.25, and above the 200-day MA of 7.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:TUI1.
TUI AG Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
DE:TUI1
TUI AG
7.85
1.01
14.77%
GB:0G8Z
HolidayCheck
3.70
0.00
0.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.