TUI AG (DE:TUI1)
XETRA:TUI1
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TUI AG
(XETRA:TUI1)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
€7.50
▼(-0.40% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
The score is driven mainly by improving profitability and positive cash generation, offset by still-elevated leverage and weaker recent free-cash-flow trends. Technicals are mildly supportive in the near term but remain weaker versus longer-term averages, while valuation is notably attractive (low P/E). Earnings commentary adds caution due to low visibility, disruption impacts, and softer summer booking trends despite strong H1 momentum.
Positive Factors
Integrated, diversified travel platform
TUI’s vertical integration across tour operations, airlines, hotels, cruises and destination services creates durable revenue diversification and multiple margin capture points. Owning capacity and cross-selling ancillaries supports resilience to individual segment shocks and sustained unit-economics optimization.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage relative to equity
Debt materially above equity leaves less balance-sheet cushion against demand shocks or cost inflation. Elevated leverage increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constrains strategic flexibility and raises downside risk if travel demand softens or working-capital pressures persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated, diversified travel platform
TUI’s vertical integration across tour operations, airlines, hotels, cruises and destination services creates durable revenue diversification and multiple margin capture points. Owning capacity and cross-selling ancillaries supports resilience to individual segment shocks and sustained unit-economics optimization.
Read all positive factors
TUI AG (TUI1) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€3.59B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.1
Beta (1Y)1.32
Revenue Growth1.57%
EPS Growth31.88%
CountryDE
Employees53,959
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.37
Shares Outstanding507,431,030
10 Day Avg. Volume2,217,561
30 Day Avg. Volume2,371,859
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)2.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.16
P/FCF Ratio3.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€9.58Price Target Upside27.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)€23.60B
TUI AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TUI AG, through its various global subsidiaries, provides an extensive array of tourism services. The company's lodging portfolio features hotels and resorts operating under well-known brands such as Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, Blue Diamond, TUI Sune...
How the Company Makes Money
TUI makes money by selling leisure travel products and operating travel assets across several interconnected business lines. A major revenue stream comes from packaging and selling holidays (typically combining flights, accommodation, and ground s...
TUI AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone: the company reported a very strong H1 with continued underlying EBIT growth, improved group result, tangible benefits from transformation, digital and AI initiatives, and strong cruise demand. However, significant short-term headwinds — notably the Iran war-related disruptions, Jamaica hurricane effects, a ~7% shortfall in booked summer revenue for Markets & Airlines, reduced customer prepayments (working capital impact), and a wider-than-desired guidance range — temper near-term outlook and visibility. Management emphasized these impacts are largely non-structural and highlighted multiple levers (cost efficiencies, hedging, capacity management, digital/l loyalty rollouts, and commercialization of airlines) to navigate the challenging second half.Positive Updates
Strong H1 and Continued EBIT Momentum
Strong H1 described as the strongest H1 to date; underlying EBIT up ~EUR 40m year-on-year and this marks the 14th consecutive quarter of underlying EBIT growth.
Negative Updates
Material Impact from Middle East Conflict and Jamaica Hurricane
Direct disruption from Iran war and Jamaica hurricane led to significant costs: management cited ~EUR 40m+ impact in Q2 (repatriation and lost revenues) plus an additional ~EUR 20m impact on Cruise — forced cancellations and ship out-of-service periods materially hurt seasonal results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong H1 and Continued EBIT Momentum
Strong H1 described as the strongest H1 to date; underlying EBIT up ~EUR 40m year-on-year and this marks the 14th consecutive quarter of underlying EBIT growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reconfirmed FY26 underlying EBIT guidance of EUR 1.1–1.4bn, stressing the wide range reflects low visibility after the Middle East disruption (cited as roughly a EUR 40–50m Q2 hit plus ~EUR 20m cruise impact); they noted this follows the strongest H1 on record and the 14th consecutive quarter of underlying EBIT growth. Key drivers behind the range include Markets & Airlines (booked summer revenues ~7% below prior year, May trading at ~par, and risk capacity reduced ~4–5%), hotels (now expected slightly below prior year due to Jamaica and Mexico effects), Cruises (still expected to grow despite occupancy ~2pp below last year overall; excluding two blocked ships summer occupancy is ~+1pp) and Musement (mid-single-digit growth). Operational metrics highlighted as mitigating factors include increased app sales (app share ~25%, ~5ppt up year‑on‑year), ongoing airline commercialization and AI-driven efficiencies, while financial assumptions note group fuel hedges averaging ~63% (some airlines ~85%, summer hedges close to 90%, winter >60%), interest cost guidance moving toward the lower end at ~EUR 325m, and net debt expected to be roughly flat to slightly up versus prior year driven by weaker customer prepayments / working capital.TUI AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.16B | 24.18B | 23.17B | 20.67B | 16.54B | 4.73B |
| Gross Profit | 2.02B | 2.22B | 1.95B | 1.61B | 931.60M | -1.22B |
| EBITDA | 1.98B | 1.84B | 2.22B | 1.44B | 1.08B | -1.27B |
| Net Income | 701.90M | 635.90M | 507.10M | 305.80M | -212.60M | -2.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.14B | 18.48B | 17.42B | 16.15B | 15.26B | 14.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.46B | 3.13B | 2.21B | 2.11B | 1.82B | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 4.47B | 4.44B | 4.54B | 4.22B | 5.20B | 6.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.09B | 15.79B | 15.64B | 14.21B | 14.61B | 14.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.02B | 1.76B | 956.40M | 1.12B | -141.60M | -1.09B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 722.50M | 989.60M | 1.20B | 971.10M | 1.56B | -451.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.73B | 1.91B | 1.64B | 2.08B | -151.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -815.40M | -771.70M | -604.30M | -492.20M | -308.20M | 704.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.00B | -656.90M | -531.40M | -834.60M | -1.63B | -233.50M |
TUI AG Technical Analysis
Positive
7.53
Price Trends
6.75
Positive
7.31
Negative
7.66
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
59.55
Neutral
37.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TUI1, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.72, above the 50-day MA of 6.75, and below the 200-day MA of 7.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:TUI1.
TUI AG Peers Comparison
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DE:TUI1
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.