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TUI AG (DE:TUI1)
XETRA:TUI1
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TUI AG
(XETRA:TUI1)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
€9.00
▲(13.92%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
A strong Q2, with a beat on all major P&L lines.
Guidance and Consensus
Strong Q1 delivery, with +13% revenue growth and material underlying EBIT growth suggests guidance is achievable and consensus could even see upwards pressure if trends remain strong.
Market Demand
Current trading is positive for hotels and cruises and suggests continued strong demand for travel in Europe.
Negative Factors
Booking Trends
Summer package bookings have incrementally softened due to Germany.
Market Conditions
In an environment of macro uncertainty, preference is given to share winners with well-invested propositions.
Reinvestment Risk
There is MT reinvestment risk in all key business units.
TUI AG (TUI1) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€3.93B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth9.56%
EPS Growth4.49%
CountryDE
Employees53,959
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength68
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.60
Shares Outstanding507,431,030
10 Day Avg. Volume3,504,383
30 Day Avg. Volume4,853,295
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.92
Price to Book (P/B)5.21
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio3.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€9.86Price Target Upside24.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
TUI AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTUI AG is a leading multinational travel and tourism company headquartered in Germany. It operates in various sectors including tour operations, airlines, hotels, and cruises. The company offers a wide range of travel-related services, including package holidays, flights, hotels, and cruise services to destinations worldwide. TUI AG is known for its extensive network of travel agencies and its own fleet of aircraft and cruise ships, providing comprehensive travel solutions to its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyTUI AG makes money through multiple revenue streams primarily centered around its travel and tourism services. The company earns revenue from the sale of package holidays, which combine flights, accommodations, and other travel services in a single offering. TUI also generates income from its airline operations, which include ticket sales and ancillary services such as baggage fees and onboard sales. Additionally, the company owns and operates a portfolio of hotels and resorts, earning revenue through room bookings and hospitality services. TUI's cruise business contributes to its earnings through the sale of cruise packages and onboard services. Strategic partnerships with local tour operators, travel agencies, and online platforms also enhance its distribution capabilities and revenue generation. Seasonal travel trends and consumer demand significantly impact TUI's financial performance.
TUI AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.95%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment overall, driven by strong revenue growth, successful strategic initiatives, and promising developments in dynamic packaging. Despite some challenges related to currency fluctuations and late booking patterns, the company remains confident in achieving its annual guidance.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
The company delivered €3.7 billion of revenue, an increase of 1.5% compared to last year, despite the Easter shift from March to April. Holiday experience remained on track with strong demand for unique and differentiated products.
Positive Outlook for Dynamic Packaging
The company has seen significant growth in dynamic packaging, especially in the UK market, driven by strategic partnerships with airlines like Ryanair. Dynamic packaging is expected to grow significantly, with more airlines and direct hotel connections being added.
Cruise Segment Performance
Cruise operations showed strong performance, with a 23% increase in capacity and a 2% increase in daily rates. The occupancy levels remained high, indicating strong demand.
Successful Capital Markets Day and Strategic Initiatives
The company received positive feedback during its Capital Markets Day and has made significant progress in its strategy to create a global curated leisure marketplace. They are also focusing on cash flow improvements and shareholder return strategies.
Technology and App Development
The TUI app has seen a 40% increase in usage in the UK and is releasing new features every month, greatly enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.
Negative Updates
Impact of Currency Fluctuations
The strong increase of the euro has impacted hotel results due to revaluation effects, despite operational performance being strong.
Late Booking Patterns
The booking pattern has been delayed due to the Easter shift and proximity to Labor Day, affecting the timing of revenue recognition.
Challenges in the German Market
The disappearance of FTI in Germany has created market dynamics that require careful margin protection strategies to avoid entering segments with low profitability.
Company Guidance
During the TUI Group's second quarter 2025 results presentation, the company provided guidance reconfirming its aim for 7% to 10% EBIT growth for the year. Revenue for Q2 was reported at €3.7 billion, marking a 1.5% increase, while underlying EBIT reached €207 million, propelled by the Easter holiday shift into Q3. Despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, TUI remains focused on margin protection and cost reduction. The company highlighted robust global travel demand, with bookings up 2% and average selling prices (ASP) increasing by 4%. TUI's dynamic packaging, driven by partnerships such as Ryanair, is showing significant growth, particularly in the UK, and is expected to further enhance margins. The company also indicated a strong performance in its hotel and cruise segments, with occupancy and daily rates showing positive trends. Beyond the current year, TUI is exploring strategic initiatives, including the expansion of its global curated leisure marketplace and potential partnerships for its cruise fleet expansion slated for 2031 and 2033.TUI AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
The financial performance of TUI AG shows a strong recovery trajectory with improvements in revenue and profitability. The income statement indicates robust growth and margin improvements. However, the balance sheet reflects high leverage and low equity, posing potential risks. Cash flow generation is strong, supporting recovery, though challenges in financing and investing activities remain.Income Statement
The income statement shows a strong recovery trajectory with significant improvements in revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have seen consistent improvement, indicating effective cost management and increased revenue from operations. The revenue growth rate is impressive, reflecting a robust recovery post-pandemic. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, showcasing operational efficiency gains. However, the net income levels are still recovering from the losses seen in prior years.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. The equity ratio is low, reflecting a weak equity position. However, improvements in stockholders' equity and a trend towards stabilizing liabilities are positive signs. The return on equity has improved significantly, driven by net income recovery, but the overall financial leverage remains a concern.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates a positive trend with substantial free cash flow generation and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow growth rate is healthy, reflecting improved cash management and operational efficiency. The company has managed to sustain positive operating cash flows, which is crucial for funding operations and managing debt. However, there are still concerns regarding investing and financing cash flows, indicating potential challenges in capital expenditure and financing activities.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 23.17B | 20.67B | 16.54B | 4.73B | 7.94B |
| Gross Profit | 1.95B | 1.61B | 931.60M | -1.22B | -1.98B |
| EBITDA | 2.22B | 1.44B | 1.08B | -1.27B | -1.67B |
| Net Income | 507.10M | 305.80M | -212.60M | -2.48B | -3.14B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 17.42B | 16.15B | 15.26B | 14.16B | 15.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.21B | 2.11B | 1.82B | 1.09B | 924.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.54B | 4.22B | 5.17B | 6.48B | 3.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.64B | 14.21B | 14.61B | 14.57B | 15.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 956.40M | 1.12B | -141.60M | -1.09B | -448.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.20B | 971.10M | 1.56B | -451.00M | -3.36B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.91B | 1.64B | 2.08B | -151.30M | -2.77B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -604.30M | -492.20M | -308.20M | 704.70M | 161.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -531.40M | -834.60M | -1.63B | -233.50M | 2.11B |
TUI AG Technical Analysis
Positive
7.90
Price Trends
7.22
Positive
6.99
Positive
7.37
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
63.66
Neutral
73.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TUI1, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.59, above the 50-day MA of 7.22, and above the 200-day MA of 7.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:TUI1.
TUI AG Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
DE:TUI1
TUI AG
7.90
1.89
31.45%
GB:0G8Z
HolidayCheck
3.70
0.00
0.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.