TUI AG (DE:TUI1)
XETRA:TUI1
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TUI AG
(XETRA:TUI1)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
€7.50
▲(4.90% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is anchored by improving fundamentals and constructive earnings-call guidance, but capped by a still highly leveraged balance sheet and currently weak price trend/momentum. Cheap valuation provides support, though it does not fully offset the financial-risk and technical weakness.
Positive Factors
Record Q1 underlying EBIT
A record Q1 underlying EBIT demonstrates restored operational profitability and operating leverage versus the loss-making years. This stronger earnings base supports durable cash generation, underpins management guidance, and provides a buffer for reinvestment, deleveraging or dividend policy over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.5x)
Persistent high leverage materially limits financial flexibility in a cyclical travel business, increasing vulnerability to demand shocks or higher rates. Even with improving equity, a ~2.5x debt/equity structure constrains investment choices, slows deleveraging and raises refinancing and covenant risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record Q1 underlying EBIT
A record Q1 underlying EBIT demonstrates restored operational profitability and operating leverage versus the loss-making years. This stronger earnings base supports durable cash generation, underpins management guidance, and provides a buffer for reinvestment, deleveraging or dividend policy over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
TUI AG (TUI1) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€3.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth4.37%
EPS Growth25.42%
CountryDE
Employees53,959
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding507,431,030
10 Day Avg. Volume2,217,561
30 Day Avg. Volume2,371,859
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)2.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.16
P/FCF Ratio3.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€10.34Price Target Upside44.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)€24.48B
TUI AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services worldwide. It operates hotels and resorts under the Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, Blue Diamond, TUI Suneo, and TUI Magic Life brands. The company is also involved in the tour operation a...
How the Company Makes Money
TUI AG generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around its travel and tourism services. The company's core revenue sources include package holiday sales, which combine flights, accommodations, and other services, and direct sa...
TUI AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strong operational start to FY2026 with a record underlying Q1 EBIT (EUR 77m), improved net debt (EUR 0.5bn), positive cash flow, resumed dividend policy and reconfirmed guidance (EBIT +7%–10%, revenue +2%–4%). Key growth vectors include cruise capacity, Holiday Experiences (owned hotels and river cruises), the app/AI conversion uplift and Musement wholesale partnerships. Management also highlighted structural balance sheet improvements (lease restructuring, ship ownership) and ongoing transformation of Markets + Airlines toward dynamic packaging. Offsetting these positives are notable one‑offs from the Jamaica hurricane (c. EUR 21m combined impact across hotels and flights), regional demand variability (Turkiye, some long‑haul markets), the transitional effects of reducing third‑party risk capacity, and near‑term headwinds from planned aircraft deliveries that will affect net debt dynamics. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum, plus reaffirmed guidance, outweigh the identified one‑off and transitional challenges.Positive Updates
Underlying EBIT Record and YoY Improvement
Underlying EBIT of EUR 77 million in Q1 — the highest underlying EBIT the company has reported for a Q1 — representing an increase of EUR 26 million year‑on‑year versus the prior year.
Negative Updates
Jamaica (Melissa Hurricane) One‑Off Impacts
Severe one‑off disruption from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica: forced closure of Riu and Royalton hotels and significant flight cancellations. Management quantified the Jamaica hit at roughly EUR 15 million to Hotels & Resorts and EUR 6 million impact to Market & Airlines in the quarter, reducing reported results.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying EBIT Record and YoY Improvement
Underlying EBIT of EUR 77 million in Q1 — the highest underlying EBIT the company has reported for a Q1 — representing an increase of EUR 26 million year‑on‑year versus the prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TUI reconfirmed its FY26 targets, reiterating revenue/sales growth of 2–4% and underlying EBIT growth of 7–10% (absolute underlying EBIT guidance EUR 325–350m); the board pointed to a strong Q1 as the basis for this—underlying Q1 EBIT was EUR 77m (highest Q1 ever, +EUR 26m YoY), constant‑currency sales +1%—and highlighted a EUR 0.5bn YoY net debt improvement (EUR 0.3bn underlying, EUR 0.2bn FX), a EUR 50m cash‑flow uplift in Q1, and roughly EUR 10m lower interest expense; segment metrics supporting the outlook included Holiday Experiences hotel ADR +5% (winter) and occupancy excl. Jamaica +1%, Cruise capacity +16% with occupancy +3% (near 100%) and Marella winter rate +5%, Markets & Airlines EBIT +EUR 10m with load factor +1%, while Jamaica caused one‑offs of ~EUR 15m (hotels) and ~EUR 6m (airlines) that should materially normalize by Q2 (impact down to 5–10%); management noted up to ~15 aircraft deliveries will lift the balance sheet but expects further net‑debt improvement over the year, has hedges in place, is reinstating dividends (AGM approval/payment process in place) and targets a dividend policy of 10–20% of underlying EPS going forward.TUI AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.17B | 24.18B | 23.17B | 20.67B | 16.54B | 4.73B |
| Gross Profit | 2.01B | 2.22B | 1.95B | 1.61B | 931.60M | -1.22B |
| EBITDA | 2.06B | 1.84B | 2.22B | 1.44B | 1.08B | -1.27B |
| Net Income | 677.60M | 635.90M | 507.10M | 305.80M | -212.60M | -2.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.76B | 18.48B | 17.42B | 16.15B | 15.26B | 14.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.56B | 3.13B | 2.21B | 2.11B | 1.82B | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 6.91B | 4.44B | 4.54B | 4.22B | 5.20B | 6.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.08B | 15.79B | 15.64B | 14.21B | 14.61B | 14.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.70B | 1.76B | 956.40M | 1.12B | -141.60M | -1.09B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.15B | 989.60M | 1.20B | 971.10M | 1.56B | -451.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.98B | 1.73B | 1.91B | 1.64B | 2.08B | -151.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -791.30M | -771.70M | -604.30M | -492.20M | -308.20M | 704.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -656.90M | -531.40M | -834.60M | -1.63B | -233.50M |
TUI AG Technical Analysis
Neutral
7.15
Price Trends
7.60
Negative
8.09
Negative
7.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
51.43
Neutral
73.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TUI1, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.81, below the 50-day MA of 7.60, and below the 200-day MA of 7.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DE:TUI1.
TUI AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
DE:TUI1
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7.15
0.97
15.63%
DE:HOC
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19.15%
DE:EAD
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190.00
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0.53%
DE:CDZ0
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1.40
0.10
7.69%
DE:MTP
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268.00
-6.00
-2.19%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.