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Deutsche Bank Ag (DE:DBK)
XETRA:DBK
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Deutsche Bank AG
(XETRA:DBK)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
€36.00
▲(7.66% Upside)
The score is supported by a strong and constructive earnings call (record 2025 performance, clear 2026 guidance and capital return plan) and reasonable valuation. This is tempered by weaker underlying financial statement quality driven by negative EBIT margin and negative free cash flow, while technicals point to a longer-term uptrend but near-term consolidation.
Positive Factors
Strong Capital Position
A robust capital position with a high CET1 ratio enhances financial stability and allows for strategic investments, supporting long-term growth.
Growth Across Business Segments
Consistent growth across all business segments indicates a well-diversified revenue base, reducing reliance on any single market or product.
Operational Efficiency
Improved operational efficiency through cost-saving measures enhances profitability and competitiveness, supporting long-term sustainability.
Negative Factors
Negative EBIT Margin
A negative EBIT margin indicates challenges in maintaining profitability, which could affect long-term financial health if not addressed.
Cash Flow Concerns
Negative free cash flow suggests liquidity issues, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or manage debt.
Challenges in Commercial Real Estate
Ongoing challenges in commercial real estate could lead to increased provisions, impacting profitability and risk management in the long term.
Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€62.38B
Dividend Yield2.04%
Average Volume (3M)4.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.4
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth-8.53%
EPS Growth62.77%
CountryDE
Employees89,687
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding1,910,579,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,803,678
30 Day Avg. Volume4,472,883
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.30
Price to Book (P/B)0.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.50
P/FCF Ratio-1.14
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€36.09Price Target Upside7.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Deutsche Bank AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionDeutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft provides investment, financial, and related products and services to private individuals, corporate entities, and institutional clients worldwide. Its Corporate Bank segment provides cash management, trade finance and lending, trust and agency, foreign exchange, and securities services, as well as risk management solutions. The company's Investment Bank segment offers merger and acquisitions, and equity advisory services. This segment also focuses on financing, advisory, fixed income, risk management, sales and trading, and currencies. Its Private Bank segment provides payment and account services, and credit and deposit products, as well as investment advice, such as environmental, social, and governance products. This segment also provides wealth management, postal and parcel services, and digital offerings. The company's Asset Management segment provides investment solutions, such as alternative investments, which include real estate, infrastructure, private equity, liquid real assets, and sustainable investments; passive investments; and various services, including insurance and pension solutions, asset liability management, portfolio management solutions, asset allocation advisory, structuring, and overlay to institutions, governments, corporations and foundations, and individual investors. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,709 branches in 58 countries. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyDeutsche Bank generates revenue primarily through its diversified business model which includes several key revenue streams. The Investment Bank segment earns money by providing advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, underwriting securities, and facilitating trading in the capital markets. The Corporate Bank focuses on transaction banking services, including payment processing and cash management, generating fees from corporate clients. The Private Bank offers wealth management and private banking services, earning fees from asset management and advisory services. Additionally, the Asset Management segment collects management fees based on the assets under management. The bank also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its service offerings and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.
Deutsche Bank AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial performance for 2025 — record profits, revenue growth, material cost savings, improved capital generation and increased shareholder returns — and management provided constructive guidance for 2026 (revenue and NII growth, modestly higher costs tied to targeted investments). Key risks highlighted include remaining CRE exposure and idiosyncratic credit events, regulatory/legal inquiries, and near-term normalization in some revenue lines; however, management expects provisions to trend down and capital to remain robust. On balance, the company's concrete delivery in 2025, clear capital distribution plan, and targeted roadmap for 2026–2028 outweigh the identified lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Return on Equity
Pretax profit of EUR 9.7 billion (up 84% year-on-year) and net profit of EUR 7.1 billion in 2025; post-tax return on tangible equity 10.3%, meeting the >10% full-year target and positioning the bank toward its >13% by 2028 objective.
Solid Revenue Growth
Total revenues of EUR 32.0 billion in 2025, up 7% year-on-year and representing a compound annual revenue growth rate of 6% since 2021 (midpoint of 5.5%–6.5% target range).
Material Cost Efficiencies and Improved Cost Income Ratio
Operational efficiencies of EUR 2.5 billion enabled self-funding of investments. Noninterest expenses fell to EUR 20.7 billion (down 10% YoY); adjusted costs broadly flat at EUR 20.3 billion. Group cost/income ratio improved to 64% (target <65%).
Strong Capital Position and Shareholder Distributions
Common equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.2% at year-end; proposed dividend of EUR 1.00 per share (~EUR 1.9 billion) plus an authorized EUR 1 billion share buyback, resulting in EUR 2.9 billion distributions (~50% payout) and cumulative distributions of EUR 8.5 billion for 2021–2025 (exceeding the EUR 8 billion target).
Banking Net Interest Income Momentum and Guidance
Quarterly NII of EUR 3.4 billion and full-year banking NII of EUR 13.3 billion in 2025. Management guides banking NII to around EUR 14 billion in 2026, driven largely by targeted portfolio growth and structural hedge rollover (around 90% locked via swaps).
Broad-based Business Momentum Across Divisions
Corporate Bank revenues up >40% since 2021 with post-tax RoTE of 15.3% and quarter deposit inflows of EUR 25 billion; Investment Bank client activity +11% in 2025 with FIC revenues +6% in Q4; Private Bank delivered 14% operating leverage, RoTE 10.5% and NII +10% YoY; DWS AUM surpassed EUR 1.0 trillion (EUR 1.08 trillion), with strong net inflows and improved profitability (DWS EPS and RoTE materially higher).
Improved Asset Quality Trend
Full-year provision for credit losses of EUR 1.7 billion, down 7% year-on-year, with net releases in Stage 1 and 2 driven by improved macro forecasts and portfolio effects. Management expects PCLs to trend moderately downwards in 2026.
Sustainability and AUM Growth
Sustainable finance volumes reached EUR 98 billion in 2025 (EUR 31 billion in Q4) and a cumulative >EUR 470 billion since 2020. DWS net inflows and AUM growth boosted Asset Management performance and fee income.
Negative Updates
Quarterly CET1 Reduction and One-off Capital Headwinds
Quarter-on-quarter CET1 ratio decreased by 30 basis points in Q4 2025, including a 44 bps reduction from one-off effects such as discontinuation of the transitional OCI rule (‑27 bps) and an annual operational RWA update (‑17 bps); higher market RWAs reduced CET1 by a further 9 bps (partially offset by 21 bps capital generation).
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Exposure and Single-Name Losses
CRE-related provisions contributed to higher Stage 3 in the Investment Bank and the Corporate Bank in Q4; management acknowledges a CRE 'tail' that is not fully wound down and flagged one larger single-name event. U.S. CRE average LTV rose in Q4 (partly due to paydowns of low-LTV loans), indicating pockets of ongoing stress.
Ongoing Legal/Regulatory Investigation
A public prosecutor visited Deutsche Bank offices in relation to historical suspicious activity reporting (2013–2018). The bank is cooperating; management currently does not expect this to affect financial or strategic plans, but it represents reputational and legal risk until resolved.
Corporate & Other Losses and Legacy Items
Corporate & Other (C&O) generated a pretax loss of EUR 109 million in Q4 2025, driven by shareholder expenses, legacy portfolios and other centrally held items; normalization in C&O revenue is expected to affect near-term comparatives.
Higher Costs and Investment Phasing in 2026
Management expects noninterest expenses to increase to slightly above EUR 21 billion in 2026 (up from EUR ~20.7 billion in 2025), including around EUR 900 million of incremental investments for growth and efficiencies — a near-term headwind to operating leverage despite long-term upside.
Regulatory Uncertainty Over FRTB and Conservative Planning
Market-facing regulatory items such as FRTB remain uncertain; management flagged conservative assumptions related to FRTB in planning and the possibility that European regulatory outcomes could alter capital impacts and planning timing.
Near-term Revenue Normalization Risk for Q1 2026
Baseline expectation for Q1 2026 is flat revenues year-on-year due to normalization of C&O and a very strong FIC comparator from the prior year; FX assumptions (December planning ~$1.18, current ~$1.19) and seasonal timing mean Q1 could understate underlying strength.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenues of around EUR 33bn (Q1 baseline: flat y/y) with banking‑book NII rising to about EUR 14bn—supported by structural hedge rollover (c. EUR 500m) and deposit/loan growth—and modest fee growth; they expect non‑interest expenses to be slightly above EUR 21bn in 2026, including ~EUR 900m of incremental investments (part of a $1.5bn three‑year program). The bank reiterated targets to improve the cost/income ratio from 64% in 2025 to below 60% by 2028 and to raise post‑tax RoTE from 10.3% (2025) to >13% by 2028, expects provisions to trend moderately down toward a ~30bp run‑rate, starts 2026 with CET1 14.2% (operating range ~13.5–14%), plans a 60% payout ratio in 2026 and flagged potential additional buybacks in H2 2026.Deutsche Bank AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue growth and a stable balance sheet are positives, but the negative EBIT margin and the sharp deterioration in operating cash flow leading to negative free cash flow in 2024 meaningfully weaken the overall financial picture.Income Statement
Deutsche Bank AG's revenue has shown a consistent growth trajectory, with a 4.06% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the EBIT margin turned negative in 2024, significantly impacting overall profitability. The net profit margin improved slightly to 11.20% in 2024 from the previous year, but the negative EBIT margin is a critical concern. The bank's gross profit margin remains high, reflecting strong revenue management.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
Deutsche Bank AG maintains a healthy equity base with an equity ratio of 5.61% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.95, indicating moderate leverage, typical for the banking industry. Return on Equity (ROE) improved to 4.33% in 2024, showcasing better utilization of equity capital compared to previous years. Overall, the balance sheet displays stability but is pressured by industry-standard leverage.65
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement highlights a significant decline in operating cash flow, resulting in negative free cash flow in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, indicating challenges in converting income into cash. Free cash flow has deteriorated, posing liquidity concerns and potential risks for future investments.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 63.25B | 66.34B | 59.35B | 37.30B | 30.75B | 30.25B |
| Gross Profit | 29.23B | 28.22B | 27.37B | 25.43B | 24.79B | 22.18B |
| EBITDA | 8.10B | 5.29B | 5.68B | 5.59B | 3.39B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 5.59B | 3.37B | 4.77B | 5.53B | 2.37B | 495.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.40T | 1.39T | 1.31T | 1.34T | 1.32T | 1.33T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 185.48B | 187.89B | 213.43B | 211.54B | 222.74B | 224.99B |
| Total Debt | 135.99B | 224.35B | 144.22B | 195.47B | 156.19B | 204.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.32T | 1.31T | 1.24T | 1.26T | 1.26T | 1.26T |
| Stockholders Equity | 76.39B | 77.83B | 73.05B | 70.54B | 66.33B | 60.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -29.11B | 5.18B | -2.45B | -3.50B | 30.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -28.58B | 5.61B | -2.11B | -2.95B | 30.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -6.78B | -2.58B | -17.18B | 23.59B | -1.89B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -646.00M | -2.85B | 614.00M | 1.63B | -311.00M |
Deutsche Bank AG Technical Analysis
Positive
33.44
Price Trends
32.30
Positive
31.43
Positive
28.92
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Positive
54.61
Neutral
73.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:DBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.16, above the 50-day MA of 32.30, and above the 200-day MA of 28.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:DBK.
Deutsche Bank AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €38.78B | 19.74 | 19.61% | 1.79% | 9.07% | 10.34% | |
75 Outperform | €39.11B | 15.16 | 8.78% | 1.82% | -2.40% | 19.42% | |
71 Outperform | €66.94B | 10.88 | 19.40% | 3.56% | 0.48% | 11.17% | |
69 Neutral | €62.38B | 9.39 | 9.79% | 2.04% | -8.53% | 62.77% | |
68 Neutral | €28.79B | 11.66 | 21.34% | 3.37% | 2.57% | 9.75% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | €27.49B | 11.71 | 19.49% | 2.37% | 3.70% | 24.02% |
* Financial Sector Average
DE:DBK
Deutsche Bank AG
33.44
15.71
88.62%
DE:CBK
Commerzbank
35.56
17.57
97.70%
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-9.87%
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-5.16
-2.07%
DE:MUV2
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517.60
11.21
2.21%
DE:TLX
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108.80
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37.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.