CareTrust REIT (CTRE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.06B
• Dividend Yield: 3.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.23
• Revenue Growth: 59.25%
• EPS Growth: 88.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Healthcare Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 223,237,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,912,675
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,893,418
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 15.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 20.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.29
• 1Y Price Target: $44.50
• Price Target Upside: 13.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $487.06M

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(4.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, cash flow improvement, and a much less leveraged balance sheet) and a positive earnings outlook with guided 2026 per-share growth. Offsetting factors are weaker near-term technicals (trading below key short/mid-term moving averages) and execution/market risks noted on the call, including competitive cap-rate pressure and potential equity dilution.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet de‑risking / zero reported debt

The company reported a structural de‑risking of its capital structure, with leverage falling from elevated 2021–2022 levels to zero reported debt in 2025. This materially improves liquidity and funding optionality, reducing refinancing risk and enabling disciplined capital deployment over the medium term.

Improving cash generation and FCF conversion

Operating cash flow and free cash flow both strengthened through 2025, with FCF rising meaningfully in 2025 and FCF roughly matching net income in recent years. Strong cash conversion supports sustainable dividend funding, funds acquisitions organically, and underpins resilient coverage metrics over the next several quarters.

Proven external growth pipeline and execution

Record $1.8B of investments in 2025 and a quoted ~$500M pipeline show repeatable capital deployment and diversification into UK care homes and SHOP. Demonstrated ability to source and close deals at scale supports durable revenue and FFO growth if underwriting discipline is maintained.

Negative Factors

SHOP segment cap‑rate compression and competition

Managers flagged SHOP as the most competitive area, with cap‑rate compression from heightened bidder activity. Persistently tighter cap rates erode potential acquisition yields and force tougher underwriting, raising the risk that new investments deliver lower long‑term cash returns versus historical targets.

UK withholding tax reduces net yields

The company discloses UK withholding tax meaningfully reduces investor net yields on UK care homes. This structural drag lowers blended portfolio cash returns, complicates yield comparisons and requires higher pre‑tax yields to achieve target after‑tax returns across the portfolio.

Reliance on forward equity/ATM funding and potential dilution

Growth financing depends materially on unsettled forward share sales and a large ATM program. While proceeds boost liquidity, settlement increases share count and can dilute FFO/FAD per share unless capital is deployed at accretive yields, leaving medium‑term per‑share growth dependent on execution.

CareTrust REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly-traded real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership, acquisition, development and leasing of skilled nursing, seniors housing and other healthcare-related properties. With a nationwide portfolio of long-term net-leased properties, and a growing portfolio of quality operators leasing them, CareTrust REIT is pursuing both external and organic growth opportunities across the United States.

How the Company Makes Money

CareTrust REIT primarily makes money by collecting rental income from healthcare operators that lease its properties. Its core revenue stream is contractual rent earned under long-term net-lease agreements (commonly structured so the tenant/operator is responsible for many property-level operating expenses such as maintenance, insurance, and taxes), which supports predictable property-level cash flows. The company also generates income through interest and related receipts when it provides financing to operators (for example, loans or other structured investments), earning interest income in addition to rent. Growth in earnings is typically driven by acquiring additional facilities, funding development or expansion projects where applicable, and executing sale-leaseback transactions in which CareTrust buys a facility from an operator and leases it back to that operator, converting the operator’s real estate into rent payments to the REIT. Key factors influencing earnings include the credit quality and operating performance of tenants (which affects rent coverage and collection), lease escalators/renewals, portfolio occupancy and reimbursement dynamics at tenant facilities, and access to capital (debt and equity) used to fund acquisitions and investments. Specific significant partnerships: null.

CareTrust REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 fundamentals: sharply accelerated revenue growth, improved profitability versus 2022 losses, rising operating/free cash flow, and a materially de-risked balance sheet (notably lower leverage). Key offset is consistency risk: unusually elevated 2025 margins and the step-change in leverage may reflect non-recurring factors and should be monitored for sustainability.

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated meaningfully in 2025 (annual) (+46.97%) after modest growth in 2023–2024, showing a strong recent trajectory. Profitability is very strong on the surface with consistently high gross and EBITDA margins, and net margin improved sharply from a loss in 2022 to solid profitability in 2023–2025. Key watchout: profitability was volatile in 2022 (net loss), and the 2025 margins look unusually elevated versus prior years, suggesting results may be influenced by non-recurring items or accounting effects rather than purely operating improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet strengthened substantially over time, with leverage falling from high levels in 2021–2022 (debt meaningfully above equity) to moderate in 2023–2024 and then showing zero debt in 2025 (annual), which is a major de-risking. Equity and total assets expanded materially, and returns on equity improved versus 2023–2024, indicating better profitability on a larger capital base. Main risk: the step-change to zero debt is a major structural shift versus prior periods and may not be permanent; investors should monitor whether leverage reappears as growth continues.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose each year from 2022 through 2025 (annual), and free cash flow also expanded with strong growth in 2025 (+17.83%). Cash flow quality looks good, with free cash flow roughly matching net income across periods (near 1.0 in 2023–2025), suggesting earnings are well-supported by cash. Weaknesses include the 2022 dip in free cash flow growth and lower cash coverage in 2022 (sub-1), indicating cash flow can soften during tougher periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	476.59M	228.26M	198.60M	187.51M	190.19M
Gross Profit	281.79M	214.71M	189.01M	178.13M	186.62M
EBITDA	462.08M	211.54M	145.80M	72.88M	151.05M
Net Income	320.54M	125.08M	53.73M	-7.51M	71.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.15B	3.44B	2.08B	1.62B	1.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	198.04M	213.82M	294.45M	13.18M	19.89M
Total Debt	894.22M	396.93M	595.60M	719.50M	673.40M
Total Liabilities	1.09B	507.63M	666.12M	771.41M	725.09M
Stockholders Equity	4.04B	2.91B	1.42B	849.37M	915.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	379.04M	236.20M	143.79M	137.12M	150.86M
Operating Cash Flow	394.03M	244.25M	154.77M	144.41M	156.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.46B	-1.49B	-267.81M	-127.40M	-192.63M
Financing Cash Flow	1.05B	1.17B	394.32M	-23.73M	36.74M

CareTrust REIT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 39.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTRE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 39.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.10, above the 50-day MA of 38.76, and above the 200-day MA of 34.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CTRE.

CareTrust REIT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CTRE	77 Outperform	$8.06B	18.09	8.99%	3.56%	59.25%	88.37%
OHI	74 Outperform	$13.24B	22.25	11.83%	6.11%	13.50%	31.56%
NHI	70 Outperform	$3.97B	25.18	9.63%	4.73%	8.04%	9.20%
SBRA	70 Outperform	$4.94B	29.37	5.63%	6.47%	8.12%	75.95%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
HR	64 Neutral	$6.01B	-24.09	-5.13%	6.56%	-6.59%	33.35%
AHR	64 Neutral	$9.14B	111.95	2.61%	2.10%	11.81%	―

CareTrust REIT Corporate Events

CareTrust REIT Releases Updated Investor Presentation Materials

CareTrust REIT, Inc., a healthcare-focused real estate investment trust specializing in post-acute and senior housing properties, provides capital to operating partners in the long-term care and related healthcare segments. Its portfolio strategy centers on income-generating healthcare real estate assets that support operators serving aging and medically complex populations.

The company announced that it has updated its investor presentation and made the new materials available on its website in the Investors section. CareTrust emphasized that providing the presentation does not imply any legal requirement to do so or that it contains new material information, and the company noted it does not undertake an obligation to update the presentation in the future.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRE) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareTrust REIT stock, see the CTRE Stock Forecast page.

CareTrust REIT Launches New $1 Billion ATM Program

On February 17, 2026, CareTrust REIT, Inc. and its operating partnership entered into a new equity distribution agreement establishing a $1 billion at-the-market equity offering program for its common stock with a syndicate of major banks acting as sales agents, principals and forward purchasers. The shares will be sold from time to time through various transaction methods, including forward sales, with agent and forward purchaser commissions capped at 2% of sale prices or volume-weighted averages.

The company plans to contribute net proceeds from direct share sales and the eventual settlement of any forward sale agreements to its operating partnership for general corporate purposes, including acquisitions, debt repayment and working capital, with temporary investment in short-term interest-bearing instruments. In connection with the new February 2026 ATM program and its related shelf registration and prospectus supplement filed the same day, CareTrust terminated its prior at-the-market program dated January 21, 2025, leaving less than $10 million of unsold capacity but maintaining $367 million of outstanding forward sale agreements that will remain in effect under the prior arrangement.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRE) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareTrust REIT stock, see the CTRE Stock Forecast page.

CareTrust REIT Posts Strong Quarter and Upbeat 2026 Outlook

CareTrust REIT reported strong results for the quarter and year ended Dec. 31, 2025, highlighted by full-year net income of $320.5 million, or $1.57 per diluted share, nearly doubling year on year. Normalized FFO per share rose 17% to $1.76 and Normalized FAD per share climbed 14%, supported by $1.8 billion of investments at an 8.6% yield and $1.1 billion of equity raised, while the company also maintained a $0.335 quarterly dividend.

Fourth-quarter net income rose 72% to $111.3 million, with 100% rent and interest collection on retained properties and a conservative net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.7x, well below its target leverage range. Management highlighted record external growth, new UK care home and SHOP platforms, ample liquidity including full availability on a $1.2 billion revolver, and 2026 guidance implying roughly 9% growth in Normalized FFO and FAD per share, underscoring a positive outlook and strengthened competitive position in healthcare real estate.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRE) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareTrust REIT stock, see the CTRE Stock Forecast page.