Cisco Systems (CSCO) Risk Analysis

The markets for our products and services are characterized by rapidly changing technology, evolving industry standards, new product and service introductions, and evolving methods of building and operating networks. Our operating results depend on our ability to develop and introduce new products and services into existing and emerging markets and to reduce the production costs of existing products. If customers do not purchase and/or renew our offerings our business could be harmed. The process of developing new technology, including more programmable, flexible and virtual networks, and technology related to other market transitions- such as AI, security, observability, and cloud- is complex and uncertain, and if we fail to accurately predict customers' changing needs and emerging technological trends our business could be harmed. We must commit significant resources, including the investments we have been making in our strategic priorities to developing new products and services before knowing whether our investments will result in products and services the market will accept. In particular, if our model of the evolution of networking, security, or observability does not emerge as we believe it will, or these industries do not evolve as we believe they will, or if our strategy for addressing this evolution is not successful, many of our strategic initiatives and investments may be of no or limited value. For example, if we do not timely introduce products related to these markets, or if such products or offerings that ultimately succeed in these markets are based on technology, or an approach to technology, that differs from ours, our business could be harmed. In addition, our business could be negatively impacted in periods surrounding our new product introductions if customers delay purchasing decisions to qualify or otherwise evaluate the new product offerings. We have also been seeking to meet the evolving needs of customers which include offering our products and solutions in the manner in which customers wish to consume them. As a part of these efforts, we continue to make changes to how we are organized and how we build and deliver our technology, including changes in our business models with customers. If our strategy for addressing our customer needs, or the architectures and solutions we develop do not meet those needs, or the changes we are making in how we are organized and how we build and deliver or technology is incorrect or ineffective, our business could be harmed. Furthermore, we may not execute successfully on our vision or strategy because of challenges with regard to product planning and timing, technical hurdles that we fail to overcome in a timely fashion, or a lack of appropriate resources. This could result in competitors, some of which may also be our strategic alliance partners, providing those solutions before we do and loss of market share, revenue, and earnings. In addition, the growth in demand for technology delivered as a service enables new competitors to enter the market. The success of new products and services depends on several factors, including proper new product and service definition, component costs, timely completion and introduction of these products and services, differentiation of new products and services from those of our competitors, and market acceptance of these products and services. There can be no assurance that we will successfully identify new product and services opportunities, develop and bring new products and services to market in a timely manner, or achieve market acceptance of our products and services or that products, services and technologies developed by others will not render our products, services or technologies obsolete or noncompetitive. The products and technologies in our other product categories and key priority areas may not prove to have the market success we anticipate, and we may not successfully identify and invest in other emerging or new products and services.

We currently incorporate AI technology in certain of our commercial offerings and in our business operations. Our research and development of AI technology remains ongoing. AI presents risks and challenges and may result in unintended consequences, including inadvertent disclosure or misuse of intellectual property, confidential, personal, and/or competitive information, that could affect our reputation, our further AI development or our and our customers' adoption and use of this technology. AI algorithms and training methodologies may be flawed. Additionally, AI technologies are complex and rapidly evolving, and we face significant competition in the market and from other companies regarding such technologies. Leveraging AI capabilities to potentially improve our internal functions and operations also presents risks, costs, and challenges. While we aim to develop and use AI responsibly and attempt to identify and mitigate ethical and legal issues and risks presented by its use, we may be unsuccessful in identifying or resolving issues and risks before they arise. The AI-related legal and regulatory landscape is constantly evolving and therefore remains uncertain and may be inconsistent from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Our obligations to comply with the evolving legal and regulatory landscape could entail significant costs or limit our ability to incorporate certain AI capabilities into our offerings. AI-related issues, deficiencies and/or failures could also give rise to legal and/or regulatory action (including with respect to proposed legislation regulating AI in jurisdictions such as the European Union and others, and as a result of new and different applications of existing and new data protection, privacy, intellectual property, and other laws); damage our reputation; or otherwise materially harm our business.

In recent years, we have shifted our business model to deliver more recurring software and subscription offerings. This shift in our business model was accelerated by recent acquisitions, including our acquisition of Splunk in the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Market acceptance of our software subscription offerings, which includes our as-a-service solutions, can be affected by a variety of factors, including: security, reliability, performance, terms of service, support terms, customer preference, community engagement, concerns regarding data privacy or data protection, and the enactment of laws or regulations in jurisdictions in which we operate. To generate sales growth for our software subscription offerings, we need to convince potential customers to purchase new licenses or subscriptions and generate timely renewals and additional purchases from existing customers. Any failure to do so could result in decreased revenue, reduced sales, increased churn or otherwise negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition. Further, growth of our software subscription offerings depends, in part, on the ability of customers to use and access these solutions. We have experienced, and may in the future experience, interruptions in service, storage failures, and other performance-related problems due to a variety of factors, such as infrastructure and software changes, human or software errors, capacity constraints, unauthorized access, denial of service or other cyber attacks. In some instances, we may not be able to timely identify the cause or causes of these performance problems and, even if timely identified, we may be unable to timely remediate the underlying cause. It may become increasingly difficult to maintain and improve our performance for our software subscription offerings, especially during peak usage times and as our solutions become more complex and our user traffic increases. Performance-related issues of our software subscription offerings may result in increased operational costs, delays in new feature rollouts, customer loss, reputational damage, and legal or regulatory liability, including liability under customer contracts or for losses suffered by our customers. To deliver our software subscription offerings, we have incurred and will continue to incur substantial costs to implement and maintain this business. We make significant investments to increase or maintain capacity and to develop and implement new technologies in our infrastructure and operations, including those provided by third-party providers on which we rely. We may not be successful in developing or implementing these technologies. To the extent that we do not effectively scale our operations to meet the needs of our customers and to maintain performance as our customers expand their use of our solutions, we may not be able to grow this business as quickly as we anticipate, our customers may reduce or cancel use of our solutions, and we may be unable to compete as effectively and our business and results of operations may be harmed. Additionally, if our costs associated with our software subscription offerings were to significantly increase, our business, results of operations and financial condition may be negatively impacted. We are also subject to the risk of performance-related problems or interruption of the services provided by third-party providers on which we rely, which could cause revenues for software subscription offerings to decline, damage to our reputation, legal liability exposure, and/or increased expenses, all of which could negatively impact our business, results of operations, and financial condition.

Challenging global economic conditions, including tariffs or other trade barriers, rising inflation, or other changes, have from time to time contributed, and may continue to contribute, to slowdowns in the communications and networking industries at large, as well as in specific segments and markets in which we operate, resulting in: reduced demand for our products as a result of continued constraints on IT-related capital spending by our customers, particularly service provider and cloud as well as enterprise and other customer markets; increased price competition for our products, not only from our competitors but also as a consequence of customers disposing of unutilized products; risk of excess and obsolete inventories; risk of supply constraints; risk of excess facilities and manufacturing capacity; and higher overhead costs as a percentage of revenue and higher interest expense. The global macroeconomic environment can be challenging and uncertain. For example, the impact of uncertainty regarding global central bank monetary policy, the instability in the geopolitical environment in many parts of the world (including as a result of the on-going Russia and Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts and wars, and China-Taiwan relations), and other disruptions may continue to put pressure on global economic conditions. If global economic and market conditions were to deteriorate, we may experience material harm to our business, operating results, and financial condition. Our operating results in one or more segments may also be affected by uncertain or changing economic conditions particularly germane to that segment or to particular customer markets within that segment. In addition, previous reports of certain intelligence gathering methods of the U.S. government could affect customers' perception of the products of IT companies which design and manufacture products in the United States.

We conduct significant sales and customer support operations in countries around the world. As such, our growth depends in part on our increasing sales into emerging countries. We also depend on non-U.S. operations of our contract manufacturers,component suppliers and distribution partners. Our business in emerging countries in the aggregate experienced a decline in orders in certain prior periods. We continue to assess the sustainability of any improvements in our business in these countries and there can be no assurance that our investments in these countries will be successful. Our future results could be negatively impacted by a variety of political, economic or other factors relating to our operations inside and outside the United States, any or all of which could materially harm our operating results and financial condition, including the following: impacts from global central bank monetary policy; issues related to the political relationship between the United States and other countries that can affect regulatory matters, affect the willingness of customers in those countries to purchase products from companies headquartered in the United States or affect our ability to procure components if a government body were to deny us access to those components; government-related disruptions or shutdowns; the challenging and inconsistent global macroeconomic environment; foreign currency exchange rates; geopolitical tensions (including China-Taiwan relations); political or social unrest; economic instability or weakness or natural disasters in a specific country or region, including economic challenges in China and global economic ramifications of Chinese economic difficulties; environmental protection regulations (including new laws and regulations related to climate change); trade protection measures, such as tariffs; other legal and regulatory requirements, some of which may affect our ability to import our products to, export our products from, or sell our products in various countries or affect our ability to procure components; political considerations that affect service provider and government spending patterns; health or similar issues, including pandemics or epidemics; difficulties in staffing and managing international operations; and adverse tax consequences, including imposition of withholding or other taxes on our global operations.

Changes in regulatory requirements applicable to the industries and sectors in which we operate, in the United States and in other countries, could materially affect the sales and use of our products and services. In particular, economic sanctions and changes to export and import control requirements have impacted and may continue to impact our ability to sell and support our products and services in certain jurisdictions. In addition, changes in telecommunications regulations could impact our service provider customers' purchase of our products and services, and they could also impact sales of our own regulated offerings. Government and other customers' procurement policies, priorities, regulations, technology initiatives and/or other obligations often give rise to evolving privacy, cybersecurity, operational resilience, data governance, or other requirements; the failure or delay in meeting and maintaining compliance with such requirements could negatively impact our business, including by limiting our ability to sell products and services, directly or indirectly, to public sector, critical infrastructure, and other customers. Additional areas of uncertainty that could impact sales of our products and services include laws, regulations, or customer procurement requirements related to encryption technology, data, AI, privacy, cybersecurity, operational resilience, environmental sustainability (including climate change), human rights, product certification, product and digital accessibility, country of origin, and national security and other security controls applicable to our offerings and supply chain. Changes in regulatory requirements or our actual or perceived failure to comply (or to enable our customers to comply when using our offerings) with applicable laws, regulations, or other obligations could materially harm our business, operating results, and financial condition.

We are a party to a variety of claims, litigation and governmental investigations in the normal course of our business. Claims, litigation and governmental investigations may arise from a wide variety of business practices and initiatives, including major new product releases, significant business transactions, warranty or product claims, employment practices, and regulation. Any claim, litigation or governmental investigation can be costly, lengthy, and disruptive to normal business operations. For example, on August 26, 2025, we settled a legal dispute with a supplier relating to purchase obligations arising under long-term supply arrangements, which resulted in a charge to product cost of sales, which is described in Note 21 to the Consolidated Financial Statements. Moreover, the results of complex legal proceedings are difficult to predict, and management's view of these matters may change in the future. An unfavorable resolution of claims, litigation or governmental investigations could materially harm our business, operating results, or financial condition. For additional information regarding certain of the matters in which we are involved, see Note 14 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, subsection (f) "Legal Proceedings."

Our provision for income taxes is subject to volatility and could be negatively impacted by earnings being lower than anticipated in countries that have lower tax rates and higher than anticipated in countries that have higher tax rates; by changes in the valuation of our deferred tax assets and liabilities; by changes to foreign-derived intangible income, global intangible low-tax income and base erosion and anti-abuse tax, research and development capitalization and amortization, and corporate alternative minimum tax laws, regulations, or interpretations thereof; by expiration of or lapses in tax incentives; by transfer pricing adjustments, including the effect of acquisitions on our legal structure; by tax effects of nondeductible compensation; by tax costs related to intercompany realignments; by changes in accounting principles; or by changes in tax laws and regulations, treaties, or interpretations thereof, including changes to the taxation of earnings of our foreign subsidiaries, the deductibility of expenses attributable to foreign income, and the foreign tax credit rules. Significant judgment is required to determine the recognition and measurement attribute prescribed in the accounting guidance for uncertainty in income taxes. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an international association comprised of 38 countries, including the United States, has made changes, including a Pillar Two framework that imposes a minimum tax rate of 15% in each taxing jurisdiction, and is contemplating additional changes to numerous long-standing tax principles. There can be no assurance that these changes and any contemplated changes if finalized, once adopted by countries, will not have an adverse impact on our provision for income taxes. Further, as a result of certain of our ongoing employment and capital investment actions and commitments, our income in certain countries was subject to reduced tax rates. Our failure to meet these commitments could adversely impact our provision for income taxes. In addition, we are subject to the continuous examination of our income tax returns by the Internal Revenue Service and other tax authorities. We regularly assess the likelihood of adverse outcomes resulting from these examinations to determine the adequacy of our provision for income taxes. There can be no assurance that the outcomes from these continuous examinations will not have an adverse effect on our operating results and financial condition.

We produce highly complex products that incorporate leading-edge technology, including both hardware and software. Software typically contains bugs or other quality or reliability problems that can unexpectedly interfere with its intended operations or the intended operation of the systems in which our software is installed. There can be no assurance that our pre-shipment or pre-release testing programs will be adequate to detect all defects, either ones in individual products or ones that could affect numerous shipments, which might interfere with customer satisfaction, reduce sales opportunities, or affect gross margins. From time to time, we have had to replace certain components and provide remediation in response to the discovery of defects or bugs in products that we had shipped. There can be no assurance that such remediation, depending on the product involved, would not have a material impact. An inability to cure a product defect or bug could result in the failure of a product line, temporary or permanent withdrawal from a product or market, damage to our reputation, inventory costs, product reengineering expenses or legal liability, any of which could materially harm our revenue, margins, and net income.

Our success has always depended in large part on our ability to attract and retain highly skilled technical, managerial, sales, and marketing personnel. Competition for such personnel is intense, especially in the Silicon Valley area of Northern California and other major United States locations. Stock incentive plans are designed to reward employees for their long-term contributions and provide incentives for them to remain with us. Volatility or lack of positive performance in our stock price or equity incentive awards, or changes to our overall compensation program, including our stock incentive program, resulting from the management of share dilution and share-based compensation expense or otherwise, may also negatively impact our ability to retain key employees. As a result of one or more of these factors, we may increase our hiring in geographic areas outside the United States, which could subject us to additional geopolitical and exchange rate risk. The loss of services of any of our key personnel; the inability to retain and attract qualified personnel in the future; or delays in hiring required personnel, particularly in engineering and sales fields, could make it difficult to meet key objectives, such as timely and effective product introductions. In addition, companies in our industry whose employees accept positions with competitors frequently claim that competitors have engaged in improper hiring practices. We have received these claims in the past and may receive additional claims in the future.

The fact that we do not own or operate the bulk of our manufacturing facilities and that we are reliant on our extended supply chain could have an adverse impact on the supply of our products and on our business and operating results. Financial problems of either contract manufacturers or component suppliers, reservation of manufacturing capacity at our contract manufacturers by other companies, and industry consolidation occurring within one or more component supplier markets, such as the semiconductor market, in each case, could either limit supply or increase costs. A reduction or interruption in supply, including disruptions on our global supply chain, caused in part by public health emergencies, geopolitical tensions (including as a result of China-Taiwan relations, increasing tariffs or any other trade tensions) or a significant natural disaster (including as a result of climate change); a significant increase in the price of one or more components (including as a result of inflation); a failure to adequately authorize procurement of inventory by our contract manufacturers; a failure by suppliers to deliver on our contracts; a failure to appropriately cancel, reschedule, or adjust our requirements based on our business needs; or a decrease in demand for our products could materially harm our business, operating results, and financial condition and could materially damage customer relationships. Furthermore, as a result of binding price or purchase commitments with suppliers, we may be obligated to purchase components at prices that are higher than those available in the current market. In the event that we become committed to purchase components at prices in excess of the current market price when the components are actually used, our gross margins could decrease. In addition, vendors may be under pressure to allocate product to certain customers for business, regulatory or political reasons, and/or demand changes in agreed pricing as a condition of supply. Although we have generally secured additional supply or taken other mitigation actions when significant disruptions have occurred, if similar situations occur in the future, they could materially harm our business, results of operations, and financial condition. Our growth and ability to meet customer demands depend in part on our ability to obtain timely deliveries of parts from our suppliers and contract manufacturers. We have experienced component shortages in the past, including shortages caused by manufacturing process issues, that have affected our operations, including longer than normal lead times. Additionally, we may in the future experience a shortage of certain component parts as a result of our own manufacturing issues, manufacturing issues at our suppliers or contract manufacturers, capacity problems experienced by our suppliers or contract manufacturers including capacity or cost problems resulting from industry consolidation, or strong demand for those parts. Growth in the economy is likely to create greater pressures on us and our suppliers to accurately project component demand and to establish optimal component levels and manufacturing capacity, especially for labor-intensive components, components for which we purchase a substantial portion of the supply, or the re-ramping of manufacturing capacity for highly complex products. During periods of shortages or delays the price of components may increase, or the components may not be available at all, and we may also encounter shortages if we do not accurately anticipate our needs. We may not be able to secure enough components at reasonable prices or of acceptable quality to build new products in a timely manner in the quantities or configurations needed. Accordingly, our revenue and gross margins could suffer until other sources can be developed. Although in many cases we use standard parts and components for our products, certain components are presently available only from a single source or limited sources, and a global economic downturn and related market uncertainty could negatively impact the availability of components from one or more of these sources, especially during times when there are supplier constraints based on labor and other actions taken during economic downturns. We may not be able to diversify sources in a timely manner, which could harm our ability to deliver products to customers and seriously impact present and future sales. We believe that we may be faced with the following challenges in the future: new markets in which we participate may grow quickly, which may make it difficult to quickly obtain significant component capacity; as we acquire companies and new technologies, we may be dependent on unfamiliar supply chains or relatively small supply partners; and we face competition for certain components that are supply-constrained from existing competitors and companies in other markets. Manufacturing capacity and component supply constraints could be significant issues for us as they have been in certain prior periods. We purchase components from a variety of suppliers and use several contract manufacturers to provide manufacturing services for our products. During the normal course of business, in order to improve manufacturing lead-time performance and to help ensure adequate component supply, we enter into agreements with contract manufacturers and suppliers that either allow them to procure inventory based upon criteria as defined by us or that establish the parameters defining our requirements. In certain instances, these agreements allow us the option to cancel, reschedule, and adjust our requirements based on our business needs prior to firm orders being placed. When facing component supply-related challenges, we have increased our efforts in procuring components in order to meet customer expectations, such as we have done in past periods due to supply constraints, which in turn contributes to an increase in inventory and purchase commitments. In fiscal 2025, we entered into additional purchase commitments with contract manufacturers and suppliers related to manufacturing Cisco Silicon One and other products to meet demand from webscale and other customers. We expect to continue entering into these additional purchase commitments in fiscal 2026. These past efforts and additional purchase commitments significantly increased our supply chain exposure, which resulted in negative impacts to our product gross margin in recent periods and may result in further negative impacts in future periods. On August 26, 2025, we settled a legal dispute with a supplier relating to purchase obligations arising under long-term supply arrangements, which resulted in a charge to product cost of sales, which is described in Note 21 to the Consolidated Financial Statements. The remaining and new supply chain exposures include potential material excess and obsolete or other charges if product demand significantly decreases for a sustained duration, we are unable to generate demand for certain products planned for development, or we are otherwise unable to mitigate these supply chain exposures. Product demand conditions for future periods can be difficult to predict or may persist longer than anticipated.

We must manage inventory relating to sales to our distributors effectively, because inventory held by them could affect our results of operations. Our distributors may increase orders during periods of product shortages, cancel orders if their inventory is too high, or delay orders in anticipation of new products. They also may adjust their orders in response to the supply of our products and the products of our competitors that are available to them, and in response to seasonal fluctuations in end-user demand. Our distributors are generally given business terms that allow them to return a portion of inventory, receive credits for changes in selling price, and participate in various cooperative marketing programs. Inventory management remains an area of focus as we balance the need to maintain strategic inventory levels to ensure competitive lead times against the risk of inventory obsolescence because of rapidly changing technology and customer requirements. When facing component supply-related challenges, we have in the past and may in the future increase our efforts in procuring components or enter additional purchase commitments with contract manufacturers and suppliers in order to meet customer expectations. If we ultimately determine that we have excess inventory, we may have to reduce our prices and write down inventory, which in turn could result in lower gross margins.