The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook for ConocoPhillips, with strong production growth, successful integration of Marathon assets, and robust financial performance. However, challenges such as special expenses related to acquisitions and operational issues in Alaska were noted.

Company Guidance

In the fourth quarter of 2024, ConocoPhillips achieved several key performance metrics, delivering a 4% production growth year over year, surpassing its full-year guidance range. The company reported a preliminary organic reserve replacement ratio of 123% for 2024, contributing to a three-year average of 131%. Total reserve replacement, including acquisitions, stood at 244%, bringing reserves to 7.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent. ConocoPhillips closed the acquisition of Marathon Oil, enhancing its portfolio with high-quality, low-cost supply inventory, and expects to achieve over $1 billion in run-rate synergies by the end of 2025. The company announced a target to return $10 billion to shareholders in 2025, comprising $4 billion in dividends and $6 billion in buybacks. For 2025, ConocoPhillips forecasts production of 2.34 to 2.38 million barrels of oil equivalent per day with a capital expenditure of $12.9 billion, representing a 15% reduction in spending while still providing low single-digit production growth. Adjusted operating costs are projected to be $10.9 to $11.1 billion, with cash exploration expenses of $300 million and a DD&A expense range of $11.3 billion. The effective tax rate is anticipated to be between 36-37%.

Record Production and Reserve Replacement

ConocoPhillips achieved 4% production growth year over year, exceeding the high end of guidance, with 5% growth in the lower 48 and 3% growth in Alaska and international sectors. The company also reported a 123% preliminary organic reserve replacement ratio for 2024, with a three-year average of 131%.

Successful Marathon Acquisition Synergies

The acquisition of Marathon was completed, adding high-quality, low-cost supply inventory. ConocoPhillips expects to deliver over $1 billion of run-rate synergies by the end of 2025, with more than half included in capital guidance.

Strong Financial Performance

ConocoPhillips returned $9.1 billion of capital to shareholders, representing 45% of CFO, and announced a target to return $10 billion in 2025, consisting of $4 billion in dividends and $6 billion in buybacks.

Positive Long-Cycle Project Developments

The company expects peak long-cycle project spending in 2025 and anticipates these projects will contribute $3.5 billion of incremental CFO from NFV Port Arthur, NFS, and Willow, leading to $6 billion of incremental annual sustaining free cash flow relative to 2025.

Cash Flow and Debt Management

ConocoPhillips generated over $5.4 billion in cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter and executed strategic debt transactions to simplify capital structure and reduce near-term maturities.

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Conocophillips (COP) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

The upcoming earnings date is based on a company’s previous reporting, and may be updated when the actual date is announced

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COP Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
Jul 26, 2018	2018 (Q2)	- / 1.09	0.14	678.57% (+0.95)	―	―
Oct 25, 2018	2018 (Q3)	- / 1.36	0.16	750.00% (+1.20)	―	―
Jan 31, 2019	2018 (Q4)	- / 1.13	0.45	151.11% (+0.68)	―	―
Apr 30, 2019	2019 (Q1)	- / 1.00	0.96	4.17% (+0.04)	―	―
Jul 30, 2019	2019 (Q2)	- / 1.01	1.09	-7.34% (-0.08)	―	―
Oct 29, 2019	2019 (Q3)	- / 0.82	1.36	-39.71% (-0.54)	―	―
Feb 04, 2020	2019 (Q4)	- / 0.76	1.13	-32.74% (-0.37)	―	―
Apr 30, 2020	2020 (Q1)	- / 0.45	1	-55.00% (-0.55)	―	―
Jul 30, 2020	2020 (Q2)	- / -0.92	1.01	-191.09% (-1.93)	―	―
Oct 29, 2020	2020 (Q3)	- / -0.31	0.82	-137.80% (-1.13)	―	―

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

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COP Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
Feb 06, 2025	$100.21	$99.94	-0.27%
Oct 31, 2024	$102.26	$108.78	+6.38%
Aug 01, 2024	$109.64	$106.86	-2.54%
May 02, 2024	$121.82	$119.77	-1.68%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.

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