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Conocophillips (COP)
NYSE:COP
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Conocophillips
(NYSE:COP)78Outperform
Positive Factors
Operational Performance
ConocoPhillips exceeded production forecasts with higher crude, NGL, and gas production.
Shareholder Returns
ConocoPhillips returned approximately $2.9 billion to shareholders, with $2 billion through buybacks.
Negative Factors
Commodity Price Volatility
COP is exposed to significant macroeconomic risks as earnings depend on the price volatility of crude oil, natural gas and other refinery products.
Conocophillips (COP) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$113.09B
Dividend Yield3.52%
Average Volume (3M)7.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-2.57%
EPS Growth-14.01%
CountryUS
Employees11,800
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength57
IndustryFossil Fuels
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.80
Shares Outstanding1,272,380,200
10 Day Avg. Volume8,955,140
30 Day Avg. Volume7,834,398
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)6.30
P/FCF Ratio6.20
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$131.43Price Target Upside45.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionConocoPhillips (COP) is an American multinational corporation engaged in the exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. As an independent exploration and production company, it operates across several key regions globally, including North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. The company's core activities focus on finding and developing oil and natural gas resources, making it a significant player in the energy sector.
How the Company Makes MoneyConocoPhillips generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company earns money by extracting these resources from its global reserves and then selling them on the open market. Revenue streams are heavily influenced by global commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Key partnerships with other energy companies and governments also help in sharing risks and costs associated with large-scale exploration and production projects, thus contributing to earnings. Fluctuations in energy demand, regulatory changes, and geopolitical factors are significant elements that can impact its financial performance.
Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ConocoPhillips demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability metrics, conservative leverage, and excellent cash flow management. Despite a decrease in revenue and total assets, the company maintains stability with high equity and robust cash flow efficiency, positioning it well for potential growth and investment opportunities.Income Statement
ConocoPhillips displays strong profitability with a 64.86% gross profit margin and a 16.23% net profit margin for 2024. The EBIT margin is robust at 49.48%, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue has declined by 1.57% compared to 2023, indicating a need for revenue growth strategies.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.44, reflecting a conservative approach to leverage, which is beneficial for stability. The equity ratio of 69.34% illustrates strong capitalization. However, the total assets have decreased significantly, requiring monitoring of asset management.75
Positive
Cash Flow
ConocoPhillips has shown strong free cash flow growth from 2023 to 2024, with a substantial operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.18, indicating excellent cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also high, reflecting efficient capital expenditure management.85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 56.95B | 57.86B | 78.49B | 45.83B | 18.78B | Gross Profit |
| 36.94B | 28.19B | 30.01B | 14.77B | 841.00M | EBIT |
| 28.19B | 27.04B | 28.09B | 14.00B | -1.89B | EBITDA |
| 24.05B | 25.78B | 37.13B | 21.09B | 4.52B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 9.24B | 10.96B | 18.68B | 8.08B | -2.65B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 6.11B | 6.61B | 9.24B | 6.59B | 7.86B | Total Assets |
| 122.78B | 95.92B | 93.83B | 90.66B | 62.62B | Total Debt |
| 24.32B | 19.63B | 16.64B | 19.93B | 15.37B | Net Debt |
| 18.72B | 14.00B | 10.19B | 14.91B | 12.38B | Total Liabilities |
| 57.98B | 46.65B | 45.83B | 45.26B | 32.77B | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.41B | 49.28B | 48.00B | 45.41B | 29.85B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 8.01B | 8.72B | 18.16B | 11.67B | 87.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 20.12B | 19.96B | 28.31B | 17.00B | 4.80B | Investing Cash Flow |
| 302.00M | -12.00B | -8.74B | -8.54B | -4.12B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -8.84B | -8.66B | -18.05B | -6.33B | -2.71B |
Conocophillips Technical Analysis
Negative
90.63
Price Trends
98.68
Negative
101.93
Negative
105.50
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.51
Positive
37.59
Neutral
19.11
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 90.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 96.20, below the 50-day MA of 98.68, and below the 200-day MA of 105.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COP.
Conocophillips Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $113.09B | 11.39 | 16.16% | 3.52% | -2.57% | -14.01% | |
76 Outperform | $269.28B | 15.74 | 11.28% | 4.32% | -1.90% | -14.56% | |
75 Outperform | $44.19B | 15.96 | 27.41% | 1.31% | 20.51% | 99.86% | |
73 Outperform | $466.98B | 13.73 | 14.38% | 3.60% | 1.86% | -11.52% | |
72 Outperform | $42.93B | 18.70 | 8.88% | 1.93% | -4.35% | -37.69% | |
68 Neutral | $6.83B | 8.23 | 20.26% | 5.33% | 17.61% | -75.78% | |
57 Neutral | $8.34B | 5.35 | -5.98% | 7.29% | 0.20% | -69.45% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
COP
Conocophillips
90.63
-21.37
-19.08%
APA
APA
18.84
-11.25
-37.39%
CVX
Chevron
156.34
10.64
7.30%
XOM
Exxon Mobil
109.02
3.56
3.38%
HES
Hess
147.43
2.43
1.68%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
47.24
-13.52
-22.25%
Conocophillips Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -8.82% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook for ConocoPhillips, with strong production growth, successful integration of Marathon assets, and robust financial performance. However, challenges such as special expenses related to acquisitions and operational issues in Alaska were noted.Highlights
Record Production and Reserve Replacement
ConocoPhillips achieved 4% production growth year over year, exceeding the high end of guidance, with 5% growth in the lower 48 and 3% growth in Alaska and international sectors. The company also reported a 123% preliminary organic reserve replacement ratio for 2024, with a three-year average of 131%.
Successful Marathon Acquisition Synergies
The acquisition of Marathon was completed, adding high-quality, low-cost supply inventory. ConocoPhillips expects to deliver over $1 billion of run-rate synergies by the end of 2025, with more than half included in capital guidance.
Strong Financial Performance
ConocoPhillips returned $9.1 billion of capital to shareholders, representing 45% of CFO, and announced a target to return $10 billion in 2025, consisting of $4 billion in dividends and $6 billion in buybacks.
Positive Long-Cycle Project Developments
The company expects peak long-cycle project spending in 2025 and anticipates these projects will contribute $3.5 billion of incremental CFO from NFV Port Arthur, NFS, and Willow, leading to $6 billion of incremental annual sustaining free cash flow relative to 2025.
Cash Flow and Debt Management
ConocoPhillips generated over $5.4 billion in cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter and executed strategic debt transactions to simplify capital structure and reduce near-term maturities.
Lowlights
Special Items Impact Earnings
Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share were impacted by over $400 million of transaction and integration-related expenses due to the Marathon acquisition, although this was mostly offset by tax benefits.
Operational Challenges in Alaska
Production guidance for 2025 reflects a 20,000 barrels per day impact from January weather events, with turnarounds expected to be highest in the second quarter.
Market Volatility and Commodity Price Risks
Despite planning for $10 billion in returns to shareholders, the company acknowledges potential flex and cash return adjustments due to commodity price changes, highlighting ongoing market volatility.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter of 2024, ConocoPhillips achieved several key performance metrics, delivering a 4% production growth year over year, surpassing its full-year guidance range. The company reported a preliminary organic reserve replacement ratio of 123% for 2024, contributing to a three-year average of 131%. Total reserve replacement, including acquisitions, stood at 244%, bringing reserves to 7.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent. ConocoPhillips closed the acquisition of Marathon Oil, enhancing its portfolio with high-quality, low-cost supply inventory, and expects to achieve over $1 billion in run-rate synergies by the end of 2025. The company announced a target to return $10 billion to shareholders in 2025, comprising $4 billion in dividends and $6 billion in buybacks. For 2025, ConocoPhillips forecasts production of 2.34 to 2.38 million barrels of oil equivalent per day with a capital expenditure of $12.9 billion, representing a 15% reduction in spending while still providing low single-digit production growth. Adjusted operating costs are projected to be $10.9 to $11.1 billion, with cash exploration expenses of $300 million and a DD&A expense range of $11.3 billion. The effective tax rate is anticipated to be between 36-37%.Conocophillips Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
ConocoPhillips Announces Leadership Changes in 2025
Neutral
Jan 28, 2025
On January 27, 2025, ConocoPhillips announced the retirement of Christopher P. Delk, the vice president, Controller and General Tax Counsel, effective March 1, 2025. Following his retirement, Kontessa S. Haynes-Welsh, currently vice president and Treasurer, will become vice president and Controller, and Philip M. Gresh will expand his role to include Treasurer alongside his current position as vice president of Investor Relations. These leadership changes reflect the company’s strategic adjustments in its senior management team.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.