Canadian Natural (CNQ)
NYSE:CNQ
Earnings Data
Report Date
May 07, 2026Before Open (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q1)Consensus EPS Forecast
0.62Last Year’s EPS
0.83Same Quarter Last Year
Moderate Buy
Based on 17 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: multiple production and liquids records, significant reserve additions with low FD&A costs, robust adjusted earnings and funds flow, disciplined capital guidance (reduced 2026 capex) and an enhanced shareholder return policy. Key negatives were the deferral of the large Jackpine expansion due to regulatory uncertainty, a large non-cash accounting gain inflating reported net earnings for the quarter, and ongoing macro and gas market volatility. On balance, the positive operational and financial achievements, plus clearer pathways for accelerated shareholder returns, outweigh the highlighted risks and one-off accounting effects.Company Guidance
Record Annual Production and Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Total 2025 production reached a record 1,571,000 BOE/day, a 15% increase (+~207,000 BOE/day) versus 2024, driven by organic growth and accretive acquisitions.
Record Annual Liquids Production and Low Liquids Operating Cost
Total liquids production was a record ~1,146,000 barrels/day in 2025, up 14% (+141,000 bbl/day) versus 2024. Corporate total liquids operating costs averaged $18.44 per barrel.
Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading Records and Low Costs
Annual Oil Sands mining and upgrading production was ~565,000 bbl/day of SCO with 100% upgrader utilization in 2025. Industry-leading Oil Sands mining and upgrading operating costs were $22.66 per barrel.
Thermal and Multilateral Heavy Oil Growth with Lower Costs
Thermal in-situ production reached ~275,000 bbl/day and primary heavy crude oil production grew by ~88,000 bbl/day (+11% vs 2024). Primary heavy crude oil operating costs averaged $16.68 per barrel, an 8% reduction from 2024, driven by multilateral well program efficiencies.
Record Natural Gas Production
Natural gas production averaged ~2.5 Bcf/day in 2025, up 400 MMcf/day or 19% year-over-year.
Quarterly Operational Records (Q4 2025)
Q4 2025 delivered record quarterly production of ~1,659,000 BOE/day and record Q4 total liquids of ~1,215,000 bbl/day (up 12% or +125,000 bbl/day vs Q4 2024). Oil Sands mining/upgrading in Q4 was ~620,000 bbl/day of SCO with upgrader utilization at 105% and operating costs of $21.84 per barrel.
Significant Reserve Additions and Low FD&A Costs
Year-end 2025 total proved reserves rose to 15.9 billion BOE (+4% vs 2024) and total proved plus probable reserves to 20.75 billion BOE (+3%). The company replaced 2025 production by 218% (proved) and 212% (proved+prob). FD&A (including changes in FDC) was $3.64/BOE (proved) and $2.42/BOE (proved+prob).
High-Quality, Long-Life Reserve Base
Approximately 73% of total proved reserves are long-life, low-decline or zero-decline assets; total proved reserve life index is 31 years and proved+probable RLI is 40 years. About 50% of total proved reserves are high-value SCO/mining bitumen with a proved RLI of 39.
Strong Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns
Adjusted net earnings for 2025 were $7.4 billion ($3.56/share) and adjusted funds flow was $15.5 billion ($7.39/share). Q4 adjusted net earnings were $1.7 billion ($0.82/share) and adjusted funds flow ~ $3.7 billion ($1.82/share). The company returned ~ $9 billion to shareholders in 2025 (≈$4.9B dividends, $1.4B share repurchases, ~$2.7B net debt reduction).
Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Policy Enhancements
Net debt was approximately $16 billion at year-end 2025 with quarter-end debt/EBITDA of 0.9x and debt to book capital of 26%. Liquidity > $6.3 billion. The board increased the quarterly dividend by 6% to an annualized $0.52 and adjusted net debt targets in the free cash flow allocation policy (trigger levels moved to <$16B for 75% FCF returns and <$13B for 100% FCF returns).
2026 Guidance Update and Capital Reduction
After a Q1 2026 strategic acquisition, 2026 production guidance midpoint increased by 20,000 BOE/day to a range of 1,615,000–1,665,000 BOE/day. 2026 capital forecast was reduced by $310 million to approximately $6.0 billion.
Project Approvals and Early Production Upside
Regulatory approval received in December 2025 for the Pike 2 70,000 bbl/day SAGD growth project. Pike 1 pad came on ahead of schedule in December and is producing ~27,000 bbl/day with an SOR of ~1.8; the second Pike 1 pad is expected in Q2.
CNQ Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
CNQ Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Mar 05, 2026 | $43.78 | $44.91 | +2.58% |
Nov 06, 2025 | $30.80 | $30.97 | +0.54% |
Aug 07, 2025 | $30.26 | $29.38 | -2.91% |
May 08, 2025 | $27.41 | $28.62 | +4.41% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Canadian Natural (CNQ) report earnings?
Canadian Natural (CNQ) is schdueled to report earning on May 07, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
What is Canadian Natural (CNQ) earnings time?
Canadian Natural (CNQ) earnings time is at May 07, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is CNQ EPS forecast?
CNQ EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q1) is 0.62.