Caledonia Mining (CMCL) AI Stock Analysis

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Caledonia Mining

(NYSE MKT:CMCL)

59Neutral

Caledonia Mining's overall stock score reflects its strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, balanced by challenges in net profit conversion and cash retention. While technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, the company's fair valuation and attractive dividend yield provide some support. The balanced sentiment from the earnings call, with both positive exploration opportunities and notable operational challenges, also factors into the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Revenue is expected to grow by 18%, and EBITDA by 64%, indicating strong financial performance.

Gold Production

Caledonia is capable of becoming the largest gold producer in Zimbabwe.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Caledonia's 4Q24 All-in sustaining cost (AISC) per ounce was $2,032, up 17.1% y/y, above forecast.

Production Guidance

Management's 2024 gold production guidance is down 5.7%, implying a temporary decline.

Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$220.97M

Dividend Yield3.65%

Average Volume (3M)67.58K

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3

Beta (1Y)0.62

Revenue Growth22.97%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees2,147

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength60

IndustryGold

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.97

Shares Outstanding19,214,554

10 Day Avg. Volume92,769

30 Day Avg. Volume67,575

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.48

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$18.00

Price Target Upside56.52% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCaledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) is a mining company primarily engaged in the exploration and production of precious metals. The company operates in the mining sector and is especially focused on gold production. Its primary asset is the Blanket Gold Mine located in Zimbabwe, which has been in operation since 1906. Caledonia Mining is committed to maintaining sustainable mining practices while expanding its resource base and optimizing production efficiency.

How the Company Makes MoneyCaledonia Mining Corporation Plc generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold from its flagship operation, the Blanket Gold Mine. The company earns money by producing gold, which is then sold to refiners and financial institutions. The revenue model is heavily reliant on gold prices in the global market, making it sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bars and dore, a semi-pure alloy of gold. Additionally, Caledonia benefits from its ownership structure, which includes significant local ownership to comply with Zimbabwean regulations, potentially enhancing its operational stability and access to local resources. Strategic initiatives include expanding its mining operations and increasing production through investments in technology and infrastructure upgrades, which can lead to increased output and revenue.

Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Caledonia Mining's financial performance is characterized by strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a robust balance sheet marked by low debt levels. However, challenges remain in net profit conversion and cash retention, which slightly dampen the overall financial performance score.

Income Statement

Positive

Caledonia Mining's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue showed growth over the previous period, with a revenue growth rate of approximately 21%. Gross Profit Margin stands at 38.1%, indicating decent profitability in operations. However, the Net Profit Margin is relatively low at 5.8%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. The EBIT Margin and EBITDA Margin are strong at 24% and 30% respectively, showing solid operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet remains robust, with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.06, indicating low financial leverage and a conservative capital structure. Return on Equity (ROE) is 3.9%, which is modest but shows room for improvement. The Equity Ratio is high at 72.8%, demonstrating a strong equity base relative to total assets, providing financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Caledonia Mining has shown improvement in cash flow generation, with a positive Free Cash Flow of $3.9 million in the TTM, compared to a negative free cash flow in the previous year. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating good cash conversion from earnings. However, Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is low, suggesting potential challenges in cash retention.

TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
167.77M	138.68M	142.08M	121.33M	100.00M	75.83M
	Gross Profit
63.94M	41.37M	61.82M	54.07M	46.66M	31.14M
	EBIT
40.28M	15.18M	40.28M	38.36M	40.73M	26.57M
	EBITDA
50.37M	29.70M	50.43M	46.42M	45.42M	65.47M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
9.66M	-4.20M	17.90M	18.41M	20.78M	42.02M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.19M	6.71M	4.74M	17.15M	19.09M	9.38M
	Total Assets
125.69M	328.30M	235.19M	210.88M	177.92M	143.55M
	Total Debt
5.96M	25.06M	12.66M	1.35M	647.00K	3.31M
	Net Debt
-5.23M	18.35M	7.92M	-15.80M	-18.45M	-6.07M
	Total Liabilities
46.88M	64.11M	41.73M	30.32M	19.88M	18.84M
	Stockholders Equity
70.46M	239.72M	171.05M	161.30M	141.52M	108.42M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
3.90M	-15.62M	-1.48M	-6.93M	3.12M	-1.96M
	Operating Cash Flow
31.59M	14.77M	42.62M	30.90M	30.96M	18.06M
	Investing Cash Flow
-28.13M	-31.16M	-44.57M	-35.92M	-28.00M	-19.02M
	Financing Cash Flow
-8.78M	3.93M	-12.51M	2.37M	7.33M	-1.23M

Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price11.50

Price Trends

50DMA

10.54

Positive

100DMA

10.31

Positive

200DMA

11.44

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.39

Negative

RSI

56.58

Neutral

STOCH

66.54

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.31, above the 50-day MA of 10.54, and above the 200-day MA of 11.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.

Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis

Caledonia Mining disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (47)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SSL	72 Outperform	C$2.91B	150.91	1.00%	0.82%	-0.35%	-65.11%
BTO	66 Neutral	$4.99B	―	-18.54%	5.30%	-0.18%	-2195.85%
CMCL	59 Neutral	$220.97M	12.34	8.24%	3.65%	22.97%	―
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.36B	-2.99	-21.59%	3.58%	4.21%	-28.30%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CMCL

Caledonia Mining

11.50

1.08

10.36%

TSE:SSL

Sandstorm Gold

9.93

2.73

37.99%

TSE:BTO

B2Gold

3.78

0.08

2.30%

Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 31, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.17% | Next Earnings Date: May 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with record profits and improved production and safety metrics. However, there are concerns about high costs, delayed feasibility studies, and electricity challenges. Exploration successes provide optimism for future growth.

Highlights

Record Gross Profit and Net Attributable Profit

Achieved a record gross profit of nearly $77 million, up 86% from 2023. Net attributable profit was just under $19 million compared to a loss of $4 million in the previous year.

Strong Operating Cash Flow

Operating cash flow was nearly $42 million compared to less than $15 million in the previous year.

Production and Revenue Growth

Production was within guidance, with an average realized gold price of $2,600, supporting an increase in revenue and gross profit.

Safety and Production Improvements

Achieved 88 out of 100 accident-free days in Q4 and a production of 19,841 ounces in Q4, up from 18,992 ounces in Q3.

Dividend Declaration

Declared a dividend of $0.14 for the quarter, totaling $0.56 for the year.

Exploration Success

Good exploration results at Motapa with potential for more work, showing widespread mineralization over a 9 km strike length.

Lowlights

Delayed Publication of Accounts

Delay due to evaluating an accounting issue related to the calculation of deferred tax from December 31, 2019.

Electricity Supply Challenges

Faced a sharp deterioration in electricity supply during Q4, impacting production.

High All-In Sustaining Costs

Sustaining CapEx remains high, with 2024 costs at $19 million and 2025 expected to be about $30 million.

Deferred Feasibility Study for Bilboes

Extended timeline to complete the feasibility study for Bilboes to optimize project economics.

Company Guidance

During the Caledonia Mining Q4 Results Presentation, CEO Mark Learmonth detailed the company's financial and operational achievements for 2024. The company reported a record gross profit of nearly $77 million, marking an 86% increase from 2023, and a net attributable profit of just under $19 million, a substantial turnaround from a $4 million loss the previous year. Operating cash flow improved to nearly $42 million, compared to just less than $15 million in 2023. Production at the Blanket mine was within guidance, achieving 76,656 ounces for the year, a 1.6% improvement from 2023, with a record tonnage of 797,479 tonnes. The company declared a dividend of $0.14 for the quarter, totaling $0.56 for the year. Average realized gold prices increased to just over $2,600 per ounce in Q4, compared to just under $1,900 in the same quarter of the previous year. Caledonia also announced plans to extend the feasibility study period for the Bilboes project to optimize project economics and explore new opportunities, such as exporting concentrate, which could significantly reduce capital expenditure. Additionally, the company highlighted ongoing exploration success at Blanket and Motapa, further bolstered by recent management changes that have improved operational performance.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.