Clearwater Paper (CLW) Risk Factors

Our ability to effectively run our business depends on our ability to attract, motivate, train and retain employees with the skills necessary to understand and adapt to the competitive markets in which we operate. The increasing demand for qualified personnel makes it more difficult for us to attract and retain employees with requisite skill sets, particularly employees with specialized technical and trade experience, and can increase our operating and overhead costs. Changing demographics and labor work force trends also may result in a loss of knowledge and skills as experienced workers retire. If we fail to attract, motivate, train and retain qualified personnel, or if we experience excessive turnover, we may experience declining sales, manufacturing delays or other inefficiencies, increased recruiting, training and relocation costs and other difficulties, which may negatively impact our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition. In addition, we rely on key executive and management personnel to manage our business efficiently and effectively. The loss of any of our key personnel could adversely affect our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition. Effective succession planning is also important to our long-term success. Our failure to identify candidates with the leadership skills to manage our organization, and our failure to ensure effective transfers of knowledge and smooth transitions involving key executives, could hinder our strategic planning and execution.

We contribute to two multiemployer pension plans. The amount of our annual contributions to these plans is negotiated with the union representing our employees covered by each plan. In 2023, we contributed approximately $5.8 million to these plans. If in future years we continue to participate in these plans, we may be required to make increased annual contributions in amounts that are difficult to predict and potentially beyond our control, which would reduce the cash available for business and other needs. The decision whether to continue to participate in these multiemployer plans does not rest solely with us; rather, it is negotiated as part of the collective bargaining agreements with labor unions that participate in these plans. If we were to withdraw partially or completely from a multiemployer plan that is underfunded, we would be liable for a proportionate share of that plan's unfunded vested benefits as required by law. This is called withdrawal liability. The amount of withdrawal liability, if any, assessable to us if we were to withdraw in a future year is difficult to predict and largely beyond our control. One of the multiemployer pension plans to which we contribute, the IAM National Pension Fund, or IAM NPF, elected to be certified to be in "critical status" for the plan year beginning January 1, 2019. If we were to withdraw from IAM NPF, either completely or partially, we would incur a statutory withdrawal liability based on our proportionate share of IAM NPF's unfunded vested benefits. Based on information available to us, as well as information provided by IAM NPF, and reviewed by our actuarial consultant, we estimate that, as of December 31, 2023, we would be obligated to pay a single sum withdrawal liability payment of approximately $5.3 million on a pretax basis if we were to have completely withdrawn from IAM NPF in 2023. We currently have no plans to withdraw from IAM NPF and have not recognized any liability associated with a withdrawal from IAM NPF in our consolidated financial statements. The other multiemployer pension plan to which we contribute, the PACE Industry Union-Management Pension Fund, or PIUMPF, was certified to be in "critical status" for the plan year beginning January 1, 2010 and continued to be in critical status through the plan year beginning January 1, 2014. For the plan years beginning January 1, 2015 through January 1, 2023, PIUMPF was certified to be in "critical and declining status" under the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014. The number of employers participating in PIUMPF fell from 135 during 2012 to 43 in 2022. We are the largest contributing employer participating in PIUMPF. The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, or ARPA, includes provisions to provide financial relief to financially troubled multiemployer pension plans. In 2023, PIUMPF applied for and received approximately $1.3 billion in a lump sum payment under this program - an amount intended to allow it to remain solvent until approximately 2051. If we were to withdraw from PIUMPF, either completely or partially, we would incur a statutory withdrawal liability based on our proportionate share of PIUMPF's unfunded vested benefits. Based on information available to us, as well as information provided by PIUMPF, and reviewed by our actuarial consultant, we estimate that, as of December 31, 2023, the withdrawal liability payments that we would be required to make to PIUMPF were we to have completely withdrawn in 2023 would be approximately $5.7 million per year on a pretax basis. These payments generally would continue for 20 years with an estimated present value of approximately $73 million on a pre-tax basis. Were we voluntarily to withdraw from PIUMPF, we could be subject to substantial payments in addition to the withdrawal liability payments described above. As a plan in critical and declining status, PIUMPF has adopted a rehabilitation plan. That rehabilitation plan purports to require a withdrawing employer to make an additional, lump-sum payment - above and beyond the statutory withdrawal liability - based on the employer's share of PIUMPF's accumulated funding deficiency, or AFD. We believe PIUMPF's purported imposition of this AFD exit fee on withdrawing employers is not legally enforceable - and that PIUMPF's receipt of approximately $1.3 billion in lump sum financial relief from the federal government (through the ARPA program) provides additional support for this belief. Among other things, since it was enacted, PIUMPF's sole justification for imposition of the AFD exit fee is that it was necessary to forestall PIUMPF's insolvency - a justification that no longer applies now that PIUMPF has received funds under the ARPA program that have addressed its solvency crisis. Nevertheless, we are aware that one large employer that withdrew from PIUMPF prior to PIUMPF's receipt of ARPA funds has recognized a liability for payment of an AFD exit fee amount and that other withdrawing employers have paid some amounts in respect to the AFD exit fee. There have been lawsuits in federal courts challenging PIUMPF's AFD exit fee. These lawsuits have not resolved the issue. If the AFD exit fee were held to be legally enforceable, and if we were to withdraw in a future year, the amount of our AFD exit fee liability at the time of our withdrawal would be material and subject to a variety of factors, including without limitation, the nature and timing of a withdrawal, the financial health of PIUMPF at the time of the withdrawal, the level of contributions to the plan made by other contributing employers before our withdrawal, whether any employers that had withdrawn in the intervening years had made AFD exit fee payments, and the effect of funding provided under ARPA. We expect that all other things being equal, the use of ARPA funds will reduce PIUMPF's AFD exit fee over an extended time-period. Since we currently have no plans to withdraw from PIUMPF, we have not recognized any liability associated with a withdrawal from PIUMPF in our consolidated financial statements. Adverse changes to, or requirements under, pension laws and regulations or adverse changes, requirements or claims pursuant to PIUMPF's rehabilitation plan, such as the AFD exit fee, could increase the likelihood and amount of our liabilities. Were we to withdraw from PIUMPF, these liabilities would be in addition to the pension contributions we would have to make to any new pension plan adopted or contributed to by us to replace PIUMPF. All of this could materially reduce the cash we would have available for business and other needs.

We expect increased competition in North America from both foreign and domestic manufacturers. We have experienced, and expect to continue to experience, increased direct sales by foreign competitors into the markets in which we compete. In addition, as a result of increased sales by foreign suppliers into the Asian and European markets, we expect domestic manufacturers to seek to increase their sales in the United States to offset displaced overseas sales. Furthermore, existing and potential customers could choose to use alternative materials that we do not produce, such as substitute paperboard products and plastic. An increased supply of or demand for any of these alternative materials could cause us to lower our prices or lose sales to competitors, either of which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and cash flows. Several significant investments in paperboard manufacturing facilities in North America and globally have been announced which could significantly increase the production and supply of SBS and Folding Boxboard, or FBB, paperboard. One competitor has announced the first meaningful investment in FBB paperboard production in the North American market, which could have a cost of production advantage over SBS producers. We currently only produce SBS paperboard. If demand for SBS paperboard does not increase commensurate with the increased SBS and FBB supply, resulting in lower capacity utilization, the price of SBS and FBB paperboard could be materially and adversely effected. In addition, the production of FBB paperboard could result in the displacement of demand for SBS in the North American and export markets, which could adversely affect the demand and market price for SBS paperboard.

Our dependence on a limited number of third-party suppliers, and the challenges we may face in obtaining adequate supplies of raw materials, involve several risks, including limited control over pricing, availability, quality and delivery schedules. Limitations on the availability of, and subsequent increases in, the costs of raw materials could have an adverse effect on our financial results. We cannot be certain that our current suppliers will continue to provide us with the quantities of these raw materials that we require or will continue to satisfy our anticipated specifications and quality requirements. Any supply interruption in limited raw materials could materially harm our ability to manufacture our products until a new source of supply, if any, could be identified and qualified. Although we believe there are other suppliers of these raw materials, we may be unable to find a sufficient alternative supply channel in a reasonable time or on commercially reasonable terms. We also depend on a limited number of third-party vendors for certain of our operating equipment and spare parts as well as service providers. Any performance failure on the part of our suppliers or vendors could interrupt production of our products, which would have a material adverse effect on our business.

Our business is dependent on transportation services to deliver our products to our customers and to deliver raw materials to us as well as for intercompany shipments of parent rolls. Shipments of products and raw materials may be delayed or disrupted due to weather conditions, labor shortages or strikes, regulatory actions or other events. If our transportation providers are unavailable or fail to deliver our products in a timely manner, we may incur increased costs and we may be unable to manufacture and deliver our products on a timely basis. For example, in 2022, we experienced both difficulties in procuring sufficient transportation for intercompany and external shipments as well as significant increases in freight costs due to a number of factors. The costs of these transportation services are also affected by geopolitical, economic and weather-related events. We have not been able in the past, and may not be able in the future, to pass along part or all of any fuel price increases to customers. If we are unable to increase our prices because of increased fuel or freight costs, our gross margins may be materially adversely affected.

Our business and financial results may be negatively impacted by health epidemics, pandemics and similar widespread public health concerns or outbreaks. Despite our efforts to manage these impacts, their ultimate impact also depends on factors beyond our knowledge or control, including the duration and severity of any such outbreak and actions taken to contain its spread and mitigate its public health effects.