Thurgauer Kantonalbank (TKBP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: CHF720.00M
• Dividend Yield: 2.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.09
• Revenue Growth: -13.79%
• EPS Growth: -1.57%
• Country: CH
• Employees: 560
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 4,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,126
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,052
• PEG Ratio: 7.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.78
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: CHF188.00 ▲(15.34% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/15/26

The score is primarily weighed down by financial quality risks—high and rising leverage with a sharp 2025 equity decline and volatile cash flows—despite strong profitability and a 2025 revenue rebound. Technicals are moderately supportive with neutral momentum, while valuation is middling (P/E ~20 with a ~1.9% yield).

Positive Factors

High and consistent net margins

Consistently elevated net margins (mid-30% historically, ~29% in 2025) indicate durable operating efficiency and pricing power in core retail, mortgage and SME activities. Persistent margins support internal capital generation, cushion against shocks and underpin sustained return potential over time.

Improving return on equity

ROE increasing to ~9.2% signals improved earnings leverage on existing capital and stronger profitability per unit of equity. Higher ROE enhances the bank’s ability to retain earnings for growth and capital build, strengthening long-term financial flexibility and capacity to fund strategic initiatives.

Strong 2025 revenue rebound

A 34.9% revenue rebound in 2025 demonstrates the franchise can meaningfully scale income when conditions permit, likely via loan volumes or fee recovery. Sustained top-line recovery improves operating leverage, supports reinvestment and helps stabilize earnings over the medium term if the trend persists.

Negative Factors

Elevated and rising leverage

High and rising leverage (debt-to-equity roughly 3.1x–5.8x) and a sharp equity decline in 2025 reduce loss-absorbing capacity and increase vulnerability to credit or interest-rate shocks. Elevated leverage constrains lending flexibility and heightens regulatory and market sensitivity over the medium term.

Volatile cash generation

Large swings in operating and free cash flow—from deeply negative to strong positive and back down—undermine predictability for dividends, provisioning and reinvestment. Such volatility complicates capital planning and reduces confidence in sustainable cash earnings and funding stability.

Margin compression in 2025

A fall in net margin from mid-30% to ~29% while revenue grew indicates the rebound carried profitability pressure. If margin erosion reflects higher funding costs or competitive squeezes, it could materially reduce long-term earnings power unless the bank restores margins or grows higher-return businesses.

Thurgauer Kantonalbank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Thurgauer Kantonalbank provides various banking products and services to private individuals, businesses, companies, and public sectors in Switzerland. It offers accounts, home and personal loans, mortgages, asset management, financial planning, guarantees, cards, mobile payment, and online banking services. The company also provides investment and real estate services. It operates through a network of 28 branches and 70 ATMs. Thurgauer Kantonalbank was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Weinfelden, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

TKB earns money mainly through a mix of interest-based income, fee and commission income, and trading/financial operations typical of universal/cantonal banks. 1) Net interest income (core earnings driver for many cantonal banks): - Lending: The bank originates loans—especially residential mortgages and other secured lending, plus business/SME credit. It receives interest from borrowers. - Funding: It funds these loans via customer deposits (current accounts and savings accounts) and, where applicable, wholesale funding. It pays interest on deposits and funding. - Margin: The difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits/funding (net interest margin), adjusted for credit losses and hedging costs, is a primary profit source. 2) Fee and commission income: - Asset/wealth management and advisory: The bank may charge management fees on discretionary mandates, advisory fees, and commissions related to investment products (e.g., funds, structured products where applicable). - Securities transactions and custody: Brokerage fees, custody/account maintenance fees, and related service charges from clients buying/selling and holding securities. - Payments and cards: Account fees, payment processing fees, card-related fees/interchange, and charges for certain banking services. - Corporate banking services: Fees from services such as cash management, guarantees/letters of credit (if offered), and other client service arrangements. 3) Trading and treasury results: - The bank may generate income from treasury activities such as liquidity management, interest-rate risk management, foreign exchange services for clients, and investment of its own balance-sheet liquidity. Results can include realized/unrealized gains and spreads on client-driven FX and capital market transactions. 4) Other operating income: - Income from ancillary services (if any) and recoveries, minus operating costs; specific items vary by period. Key factors influencing earnings: - Interest rate environment and deposit pricing power (affects net interest margin). - Loan volume growth (especially mortgages) and credit quality/loan loss provisions. - Client assets under management and transaction activity (drives fee income). - Regulatory capital/liquidity requirements and competition in Swiss banking (affect pricing and growth). Significant partnerships: null

Thurgauer Kantonalbank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (high net margins historically and a sharp 2025 revenue rebound) is offset by weaker areas: elevated and rising leverage with a sharp equity decline in 2025, plus highly volatile operating/free cash flow that reduces confidence in cash earnings stability.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength, with consistently high net margins (roughly mid-30% in 2020–2024, easing to ~29% in 2025) and solid operating profitability. Revenue growth has been choppy—flat-to-down in 2020 and 2023–2024, followed by a sharp rebound in 2025 (+34.9% YoY). The main watch-out is the margin step-down in 2025 versus 2024, suggesting the latest growth came with some profitability pressure.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage, with debt-to-equity elevated across the period (about 3.1x to 5.8x) and rising again in 2025. Return on equity improved to ~9.2% in 2025 from ~5.6–5.9% in 2020–2024, which is a positive signal on earnings power. However, equity declined sharply in 2025 versus 2024, and higher leverage increases sensitivity to credit/interest-rate shocks for a regional bank.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile. Operating cash flow swung from strongly negative in 2023 to strong positives in 2024, then fell materially in 2025. Free cash flow followed the same pattern (deeply negative in 2023, strong in 2024, lower in 2025). While 2024 showed excellent cash conversion versus net income, the large year-to-year swings reduce confidence in the sustainability and stability of cash earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	418.61M	564.52M	409.62M	426.89M	433.21M	392.87M
Gross Profit	418.61M	400.38M	409.62M	414.43M	381.19M	373.67M
EBITDA	171.63M	177.14M	182.22M	185.55M	173.28M	169.88M
Net Income	157.42M	162.26M	158.02M	158.95M	147.85M	145.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.34B	36.04B	35.43B	32.80B	33.29B	30.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.57B	6.19B	6.02B	4.98B	6.14B	4.87B
Total Debt	10.15B	10.29B	8.87B	11.12B	11.63B	9.11B
Total Liabilities	33.65B	34.27B	32.60B	30.10B	30.72B	27.68B
Stockholders Equity	1.69B	1.77B	2.83B	2.70B	2.56B	2.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	115.67M	336.85M	-1.10B	376.23M	182.72M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	120.74M	340.99M	-1.09B	388.64M	196.16M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.03B	339.47M	-938.29M	757.51M	-524.07M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	1.07B	2.23B	-252.77M	121.65M	744.84M

Thurgauer Kantonalbank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 163.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:TKBP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 163 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 182.15, below the 50-day MA of 175.28, and above the 200-day MA of 161.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CH:TKBP.

Thurgauer Kantonalbank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BCJ	73 Outperform	CHF254.59M	15.26	―	3.31%	-9.68%	-13.74%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GRKP	65 Neutral	CHF1.60B	21.12	―	2.60%	―	―
TKBP	59 Neutral	CHF720.00M	2.00	5.67%	2.09%	-13.79%	-1.57%

Thurgauer Kantonalbank Corporate Events

Thurgauer Kantonalbank Publishes 2025 Annual and Sustainability Report, Plans Higher Payouts

Thurgauer Kantonalbank has released its 2025 Annual and Sustainability Report, combining financial statements with detailed information on corporate governance, non-financial reporting, and a dedicated Climate Report. The publication is available online, supplemented by a GRI specialist report aimed at professionals that explains how the bank’s sustainability strategy is being implemented.

The Thurgau Cantonal Parliament is expected to approve the Annual Report and profit appropriation at the end of April 2026, paving the way for another increase in profit distribution thanks to strong business results. The dividend on participation certificates will rise to 3.60 Swiss francs per certificate, and the Canton of Thurgau will again receive a higher payout than in the previous year, underscoring the bank’s solid performance and its financial importance for public stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:TKBP) stock is a Hold with a CHF192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thurgauer Kantonalbank stock, see the CH:TKBP Stock Forecast page.

Thurgauer Kantonalbank Posts Record Profit and Raises Payouts on Strong 2025 Performance

Thurgauer Kantonalbank reported a record annual profit of 162 million francs for 2025, the highest in its 155-year history, driven by growth in its core mortgage business, rising client assets, and higher operating income across all segments. The bank further strengthened its equity, maintained a high capital ratio of 21%, and increased the dividend on participation certificates, while boosting distributions to the Canton of Thurgau and municipalities.

Despite modestly higher costs linked to strategic expansion and staffing, TKB improved its operating profit to 230 million francs and kept its cost-income ratio at a low 44.4%, underscoring sustained efficiency. Strategic initiatives included branch modernisation, launch of the TKB Pensionszentrum, creation of an independent Private Banking unit, and a refreshed sustainability strategy, positioning the bank as a leading regional investment and pension provider, though it expects lower earnings in the current year.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:TKBP) stock is a Hold with a CHF192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thurgauer Kantonalbank stock, see the CH:TKBP Stock Forecast page.

Thurgauer Kantonalbank reshapes executive team and creates dedicated Private Banking division

Thurgauer Kantonalbank is reshaping its top management and business structure, appointing 33‑year‑old banking specialist Francesca Keller to the six‑member Executive Board from August 2026 as head of the retail client division, succeeding the retiring Daniel Kummer. At the start of 2026, the bank will also consolidate its investment and asset management activities into a new Private Banking division led by existing Executive Board member Tobias Hilpert, dissolving his current Market Services unit and reallocating its departments, in a move aimed at strengthening TKB’s positioning as an investment and pension bank and sharpening its focus on affluent and advisory-intensive client segments.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:TKBP) stock is a Buy with a CHF174.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thurgauer Kantonalbank stock, see the CH:TKBP Stock Forecast page.