Century Aluminum (CENX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.72B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.8
• Beta (1Y): 2.43
• Revenue Growth: 1.60%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,971
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 3.22
• Shares Outstanding: 92,293,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,690,413
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,117,257
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 43.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 34.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

Century Aluminum's overall stock score reflects a balanced mix of strengths and challenges. The company's improved profitability and attractive valuation are tempered by cash flow management issues and potential operational risks. A positive outlook from the earnings call and strategic advantages like U.S. tariffs contribute to a favorable but cautious overall score.

Positive Factors

Profitability Improvement

Century's profitability profile has improved with the acquisition of 55% of the Jamalco refinery, enhancing its position to benefit from healthy aluminum prices.

Shareholder Returns

The shareholder return potential is increasing as Century approaches its liquidity and net debt targets, suggesting stronger future financial health.

Tariff Benefits

Century is the largest producer of primary aluminum in the U.S., producing ~378kt, which positions it well to benefit from the 25% Section 232 aluminum tariffs.

Negative Factors

Asset Conversion Challenges

Latency/fiber and relatively high power costs could be challenges for converting the Hawesville smelter to alternative use.

Power Costs Challenges

High power costs could be a challenge for selling the power rights or entire asset at the Hawesville smelter.

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Century Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of primary aluminum. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of aluminum to various industries such as automotive, aerospace, packaging, and construction. Century Aluminum's facilities in the United States and Iceland allow it to produce a significant volume of aluminum products, which are then distributed to a global customer base. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with key customers to secure stable revenue streams. Additionally, Century Aluminum's financial performance is influenced by factors such as global aluminum prices, energy costs, and trade policies.

Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Century Aluminum shows signs of financial recovery with improved profitability metrics but faces challenges in cash flow management. Revenue and profit margins have improved significantly, yet the company's reliance on debt and negative cash flow present potential risks. Addressing cash flow inefficiencies and maintaining leverage will be crucial for financial sustainability.

Income Statement

Century Aluminum's revenue grew at a modest rate of 1.6% from 2023 to 2024, showing slight growth stability. The Gross Profit Margin improved significantly from 4.2% in 2023 to 8.4% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. The Net Profit Margin turned positive to 15.3% in 2024 from a negative in 2023, a notable improvement in profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, both at 5.5% in 2024, suggest moderate profitability performance that could be further optimized.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.75 in 2024 from 1.33 in 2023, showing improved financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) significantly increased to 48.9% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability relative to equity. Nevertheless, the equity ratio remains low at 39%, indicating a higher reliance on liabilities for asset financing, which could be a potential risk.

Cash Flow

The company experienced a significant decline in free cash flow, turning negative in 2024, indicating cash management challenges. Operating cash flow to net income ratio was negative, suggesting operational cash flow issues despite reported net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio was also negative, signaling inefficiencies in converting net income into cash.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.22B	2.19B	2.78B	2.21B	1.61B
	Gross Profit
185.00M	91.90M	46.70M	124.20M	-36.50M
	EBIT
121.40M	31.80M	25.00M	66.00M	-76.20M
	EBITDA
448.70M	43.40M	82.60M	-84.60M	-11.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
336.80M	-43.10M	-14.00M	-167.00M	-123.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
32.90M	88.80M	54.30M	29.00M	81.60M
	Total Assets
1.94B	1.85B	1.47B	1.57B	1.40B
	Total Debt
518.20M	473.70M	548.60M	474.10M	340.20M
	Net Debt
485.30M	384.90M	494.30M	445.10M	258.60M
	Total Liabilities
1.28B	1.50B	1.07B	1.15B	853.50M
	Stockholders Equity
694.40M	355.60M	399.30M	421.00M	546.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-106.90M	10.60M	-60.40M	-147.70M	29.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
-24.60M	105.60M	25.90M	-64.70M	42.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-67.30M	-57.80M	-85.50M	-82.60M	-11.80M
	Financing Cash Flow
37.30M	-13.00M	74.40M	103.70M	13.50M

Century Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.00, below the 50-day MA of 19.32, and above the 200-day MA of 17.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CENX.

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENX	70 Outperform	$1.72B	5.78	64.15%	―	1.60%	―
AA	67 Neutral	$8.66B	121.08	1.28%	1.20%	14.80%	96.53%
CSTM	60 Neutral	$1.63B	36.58	5.86%	―	-6.31%	-65.09%
KALU	57 Neutral	$1.07B	23.50	7.09%	4.57%	-2.04%	-1.36%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.73B	-3.64	-22.63%	3.27%	3.42%	-27.42%

Century Aluminum Corporate Events

Century Aluminum Appoints New CFO Peter Trpkovski

On March 21, 2025, Century Aluminum Company announced the appointment of Peter Trpkovski as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Gerald Bialek. Trpkovski, who has been with the company since 2013, will focus on advancing Century’s strategic initiatives and strengthening financial operations, ensuring continuity and leadership for the company’s future performance.