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CaixaBank SA (CAIXY)
OTHER OTC:CAIXY
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CaixaBank SA
(OTC:CAIXY)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$4.00
â–²(15.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (strong profitability and margins, tempered by leverage and cash-flow volatility) and a constructive earnings outlook (improving asset quality, strong capital and shareholder returns, but rate-dependent NII and near-term cost pressure). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and ~3.5% yield, while technical signals are largely neutral.
Positive Factors
Capital position & shareholder returns
A CET1 ratio above 12.5% with active buybacks and a raised dividend policy provides a durable capital buffer and returns discipline. Strong capital capacity supports regulatory resilience, organic lending growth and targeted distributions without forcing risky balance-sheet moves.
Improving asset quality
Falling NPLs, healthy coverage and retained unassigned provisions indicate sustained credit-cycle improvement. Lower loss expectations support steadier net income, reduce provisioning volatility and increase management flexibility for lending expansion over the medium term.
Diversified fee engines & retail traction
Growing fee income from wealth, insurance and services lessens reliance on NII. Strong retail customer gains and higher AUM create recurring, higher-margin revenue streams and cross-sell opportunities that sustainably bolster profitability even if rate conditions soften.
Negative Factors
Interest-rate sensitivity & hedge reliance
Material dependence on the rate path and large structural hedges make NII outcomes path-dependent. Hedge rollovers and ALCO reinvestment timing can materially alter medium-term NII, creating execution and market-risk exposure that can compress earnings if rates move unfavorably.
Balance-sheet leverage
A high leverage profile increases sensitivity to credit shocks and funding stress, constraining shock absorption and capital flexibility. Even with strong ROE, elevated debt-to-equity limits scope for aggressive capital return or rapid balance-sheet expansion without raising capital or cutting payouts.
Near-term cost & transformation pressure
Elevated transformation hiring and project spend raise ongoing operating costs ahead of expected efficiency savings. If productivity gains lag, cost growth will compress margins and ROTE targets, making medium-term profitability contingent on successful digital transformation execution.
CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$82.70B
Dividend Yield3.61%
Average Volume (3M)53.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-5.82%
EPS Growth14.88%
CountryUS
Employees46,254
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding21,073,773,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume53,877
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.02
P/FCF Ratio1.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.38
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
CaixaBank SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCaixaBank SA is a leading financial institution based in Spain, primarily focused on retail banking, corporate banking, and investment services. As one of the largest banks in the Iberian Peninsula, CaixaBank offers a wide range of financial products and services, including loans, mortgages, savings accounts, insurance, and asset management. The company is committed to innovation and digital transformation, aiming to enhance customer experience through advanced technological solutions. It operates a vast network of branches and ATMs, serving millions of clients across various segments.
How the Company Makes MoneyCaixaBank makes money primarily through its banking intermediation and fee-based financial services. (1) Net interest income: It earns interest on loans and credit exposures (e.g., mortgages, consumer loans, SME/corporate lending) and on securities/other interest-earning assets, and pays interest on customer deposits and wholesale funding; the spread between earned and paid interest (plus hedging/ALM results) is typically the largest recurring revenue driver for a retail/commercial bank. (2) Net fee and commission income: It generates fees from payment services (cards, transfers, acquiring/merchant services), account and service fees, and commissions from distributing and managing financial products such as mutual funds, discretionary portfolio management, brokerage/custody, and pension/retirement products; it may also earn distribution commissions from insurance products sold through its branch and digital channels. (3) Trading and investment results: It can earn income from financial market activities such as gains/losses on financial instruments, customer-driven trading, and valuation/realization results on securities portfolios (subject to market conditions). (4) Other banking income: This can include results from subsidiaries and associated entities, dividend income, and other operating income. Profitability is materially affected by credit quality and provisioning: loan losses reduce earnings via impairment charges, while a stronger credit environment supports higher net income. Cost efficiency (branch network and digital scale), customer deposit funding, and cross-selling of wealth/insurance products are key factors influencing the level and stability of earnings. Specific material partnerships are null.
CaixaBank SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: CaixaBank reported a strong year with balanced volume growth (~7% lending and funds), improved asset quality (NPLs down, cost of risk 22 bps), robust fee engines (wealth/protection) and solid capital (CET1 12.56%) enabling higher shareholder returns (DPS +15%, ongoing buyback). Near-term headwinds include a FY NII decline (–3.9%) that is recovering Q/Q, a subdued recurring banking-fee base, elevated transformation-related costs before efficiency gains arrive, and continued dependence on the rate environment and hedging dynamics for 2027 NII targets. Overall, the positive operational momentum, capital strength and asset-quality improvement materially outweigh the manageable challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong full-year profitability
Net income EUR 5.9bn, up 1.8% year-on-year; Return on tangible equity 17.5% (upper end of guidance); EPS +5%; book value per share and dividends growth ~16%.
Robust volume growth and market share gains
Performing lending grew ~7% (mortgages +6.5%, consumer +12.4%, business +7.6%); customer funds up ~6.8%; client base +390,000; client penetration 40.4%; market share increases across lending and deposits (around +10–14 bps).
Recurring revenues and wealth management strength
Revenue from services +5.4% year-on-year; wealth management net inflows ~40%; AUM at year-end ~7% above average 2025 balances; protection insurance +13% and non-life +11.7% driving fee growth.
Improving asset quality
NPL ratio down to 2.07% (–20 bps Q/Q); coverage ratio 77%; cost of risk 22 bps (below guided <25 bps); EUR 311m of unassigned collective provisions retained for protection.
Capital position and shareholder returns
CET1 12.56% (above 12.25% threshold), capital accretion +63 bps; dividend per share +15% to EUR 0.50; ongoing share buyback program (seventh buyback, EUR 0.5bn deployed so far); payout policy maintained at 50–60%.
Strong liquidity and funding metrics
LCR >200%, NSFR ~150%, loan-to-deposit ~87%; non–interest-bearing deposits increased by ~EUR 17bn during the year; deposit costs down ~10 bps Q/Q to ~47 bps (ex-hedges).
Transformation and digital traction
New app #1 rated in Spain; Imagin and onboarding digital sales accelerating (cashback launched Nov with 1.3m clients); Facilitea portal 1.6m visits; vehicle financing +30%; hired ~650 IT professionals; AI rollout (Copilot) with use cases (e.g., ~75% reduction in client interview prep time).
Portugal business outperformance
Portugal (BPI) net income EUR 473m; business volume +7.5%; profitability 19.2%; efficiency improved to ~42%; asset quality NPL ~1.5% with strong coverage.
Negative Updates
Net interest income headwinds in 2025
NII down 3.9% for FY 2025 (in line with guidance) despite Q4 recovery (+1.5% Q/Q); customer spread around 297–302 bps with loan yields continuing to moderate (loan yield –6 bps Q/Q).
Fee mix challenges and SRT fee drag
Recurring banking fees subdued (+0.6% full year); SRT-related fees/expenses impacted banking fee line by ~EUR 36m in 2025 (EUR 12m in Q4), creating pressure on fee growth.
Near-term cost and investment pressure
Operating expenses up 5.0% in 2025 (in line with guidance) as digital/transformation hiring and projects ramp up; guidance assumes continued cost increases (c. 4–4.5% in 2026) before productivity gains materialize.
Interest-rate sensitivity and hedging complexity
Target interest-rate sensitivity maintained at ~7.5% (up from ~5% earlier), reflecting continued exposure; heavy use of structural hedges (hedges increased by ~EUR 10bn Q/Q to ~EUR 68.4bn) and maturing hedges/ALCO rollovers create path-dependent NII outcomes.
Deposit mix below earlier plan assumptions
Average share of interest-bearing deposits stabilized around ~27% (below prior ~30% assumption), which affects NII dynamics and reliance on noninterest-bearing balances and hedges.
Tax levy slightly above guidance
Banking tax levy recorded EUR 611m for the year, modestly above the initial EUR 600m guidance (driven by stronger NII and fees).
NPL target still to be met
Strategic target revised to <1.75% NPL by 2027, but reported NPL at 2.07% (improved materially yet not yet at the revised target).
NII and guidance remain rate-dependent
2027 NII target of EUR 12.5bn depends on rate environment, hedge rollovers and ALCO reinvestment; management noted possible seasonal Q1 NII dip and that NII upside is contingent on gradual rate increases and hedge maturities.
Company Guidance
Management upgraded its multi‑year ambition while keeping 2026 guidance consistent with the move to 2027: target RoTE ~20% in 2027 (average >18% over the plan; ~18% in 2026) with NII reference of EUR 12.5bn for 2027 (above EUR 11bn in 2026) and revenue from services growing mid‑single‑digits (~5%); operating costs guided to a ~4% CAGR (costs +5.0% in 2025, ~4.5% in 2026) with cost/income moving from the low‑40s toward the high‑30s (Q4 cost/income 39.4%). Balance‑sheet targets assume ~6% CAGR in lending and customer funds (2025 performing loans +7%; mortgages +6.5%, consumer +12.4%, business +7.6%; customer funds +6.8% with non‑interest deposits +EUR17bn), deposit cost ~47bps, customer spread ~302bps (adjusted); asset quality targets are NPLs <1.75% (Q4 2.07%), cost of risk <25bps (2025 =22bps), coverage 77% and EUR 311m of unassigned provisions. Capital and liquidity guidance remain conservative: CET1 12.56% at year‑end 2025 (target 11.5–12.5%; distribution threshold 12.5% for 2026/27), payout 50–60% (DPS EUR0.50, +15%; EPS +5%), ongoing share buybacks (~EUR0.5bn in the 7th program), LCR >200%, NSFR ≈150% and MREL 28.18%.CaixaBank SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and improving margins support earnings resilience, but the balance sheet is meaningfully levered (typical for banks) and cash flow has shown notable year-to-year volatility, including a sharp negative swing in 2022.Income Statement
Revenue has expanded strongly over time (notably 2023 and continued growth in 2024–2025), while profitability remains solid with healthy net income and robust operating profitability. Margins improved meaningfully in the latest year versus 2024, supporting earnings resilience. Offsetting this, results show some volatility across years (including a softer revenue year in 2020 and margin swings), which is typical for banks but still a risk factor for consistency.82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows solid shareholder returns (return on equity consistently in the low-to-mid teens recently) and a large, stable asset base. Leverage is meaningful with debt running above equity (debt-to-equity generally ~1.3–1.6), which is normal for banking but increases sensitivity to credit and funding conditions. Equity has grown modestly over time, though leverage remains a key constraint on balance-sheet strength.74
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong in most years, with free cash flow generally tracking net income closely and very strong operating cash flow in 2025. However, cash flow is not consistently stable: 2022 shows a sharp negative swing in operating and free cash flow, and operating cash flow relative to the balance-sheet debt load is low in several years, indicating funding/working-capital movements can materially affect reported cash generation.68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.24B | 24.11B | 26.83B | 24.07B | 15.22B | 13.27B |
| Gross Profit | 16.24B | 16.76B | 17.04B | 15.96B | 12.58B | 11.36B |
| EBITDA | 4.77B | 9.46B | 9.10B | 7.70B | 5.05B | 6.01B |
| Net Income | 6.06B | 5.89B | 5.79B | 4.82B | 3.13B | 5.23B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 659.82B | 663.76B | 631.00B | 607.17B | 598.85B | 680.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.19B | 45.83B | 49.80B | 37.86B | 20.52B | 104.28B |
| Total Debt | 51.17B | 52.21B | 54.42B | 56.76B | 50.09B | 50.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 622.39B | 625.25B | 594.14B | 570.83B | 565.14B | 644.61B |
| Stockholders Equity | 37.42B | 38.51B | 36.83B | 36.31B | 33.67B | 35.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 40.31B | 16.53B | 14.94B | -80.79B | 37.95B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 40.69B | 16.85B | 15.74B | -79.88B | 38.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -36.48B | -152.00M | 203.00M | 164.00M | 13.89B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -8.02B | -4.75B | 1.39B | -3.98B | 88.00M |
CaixaBank SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.46
Price Trends
4.13
Negative
3.93
Negative
3.54
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
41.22
Neutral
16.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAIXY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.00, below the 50-day MA of 4.13, and below the 200-day MA of 3.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CAIXY.
CaixaBank SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $87.16B | 9.08 | 21.64% | 9.77% | 11.82% | 3.41% | |
73 Outperform | $82.70B | 12.35 | 15.47% | 3.61% | -5.82% | 14.88% | |
72 Outperform | $81.15B | 10.18 | 11.88% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $79.74B | 10.95 | 12.12% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
64 Neutral | $75.25B | 12.62 | 9.93% | 3.19% | -20.94% | -18.71% | |
57 Neutral | $98.43B | 10.79 | 9.73% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
CAIXY
CaixaBank SA
3.94
1.32
50.59%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
8.06
2.86
55.09%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
5.11
1.53
42.70%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
7.74
1.82
30.74%
PNC
PNC Financial
201.17
33.45
19.94%
USB
US Bancorp
51.32
10.05
24.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.