Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 793.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 15.28%
• EPS Growth: 123.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,645
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 237,712,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 793
• PEG Ratio: 0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.74
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.25
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(1.35% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/15/26

The score is supported primarily by strong financial performance (very low leverage and improved profitability/cash generation) and a low P/E valuation. These positives are partially offset by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD and low RSI/Stoch) and modest earnings-call risks tied to guidance refinement and a U.S. launch delay.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Exceptionally low leverage provides durable financial flexibility: supports capex for manufacturing, funds R&D and launches without heavy refinancing, lowers interest burden, and gives the company capacity to absorb lumpy government contract timing or invest in commercial growth initiatives.

Improved cash generation in 2025

A materially stronger operating and free cash flow profile in 2025 enhances self-funding of launches and capacity expansion, reduces near-term reliance on external funding, and increases the resilience of operations through procurement cycles, making investment and execution more sustainable.

Commercial traction and secured public contracts

A meaningful secured backlog in Public Preparedness and strong Travel Health growth diversify revenue sources. Large government contract wins provide multi-month revenue visibility and market validation, while product launches and share gains build durable commercial momentum across segments.

Negative Factors

Top-line volatility

Lumpy, order-driven revenue makes forecasting and resource allocation harder over the medium term. Dependence on episodic public procurement and outbreak-driven demand risks swinging annual sales and complicates steady investment in commercial infrastructure and manufacturing scale-up.

Historical free-cash-flow inconsistency

A track record of uneven free cash flow means the company can face funding pressure in down cycles. While 2025 was strong, past negative FCF episodes indicate sensitivity to timing of contract receipts and launches, raising the chance of external financing needs during weak periods.

Dependence on government timing and regulatory publication

Reliance on timely government procurement and public health publications creates structural timing risk. Delays in agency decisions or publications can materially postpone U.S. market access and revenue realization, constraining durable commercial scaling and making near-term performance contingent on third-party timelines.

Bavarian Nordic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; and Ebola vaccine under the MVABEA name. It is also developing MVA-BN (freeze-dried) that has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of smallpox; MVA-BN RSV, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus; ABNCoV2 that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2; and TAEK-VAC, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial for treatment of advanced HER2 and brachyury-expressing cancers. It has license and collaboration agreement with AdaptVac; and license agreements with National Cancer Institute and Public Health Service. The company operates in the United States, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, the United Kingdom, Japan, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.

How the Company Makes Money

Bavarian Nordic makes money primarily by selling vaccines and related services, supplemented by licensing/partnering and contract revenue tied to government and commercial customers. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: Revenue from commercial and public-sector sales of its marketed vaccines, notably its mpox/smallpox vaccine (marketed as JYNNEOS in the U.S., IMVANEX in the EU, and IMVAMUNE in Canada). Demand can be driven by outbreak response, stockpiling/procurement programs, and routine market sales where applicable. (2) Government procurement and stockpiling contracts: A meaningful portion of revenue can come from purchase orders and long-term procurement agreements with governments and public health agencies for biodefense/preparedness (e.g., smallpox preparedness) and outbreak-related needs (e.g., mpox response). These arrangements can create periodic, order-driven revenue that may fluctuate based on public health events, budgets, and replenishment cycles. (3) Manufacturing and services/other vaccine sales: The company may generate revenue from sales of additional vaccines in its portfolio and from manufacturing-related activities (e.g., fill-finish, production, or other services) when applicable; if specific line-item details are not publicly available in the requested context, null. (4) Partnerships, licensing, milestones, and royalties: The company can earn collaboration revenue through up-front payments, development/regulatory milestones, and/or royalties when partnered products use its technology or when it out-licenses assets; specific counterparties and terms not provided here are null. (5) Non-dilutive funding and grants: In some cases, vaccine developers receive funding from government or international agencies for R&D tied to preparedness; whether and to what extent this applies here without specific cited data is null. Overall, the company’s earnings are influenced by vaccine demand (including outbreak-driven surges), the timing and size of government procurement orders, manufacturing capacity, and the success of partnered programs that can generate milestone/royalty income.

Bavarian Nordic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are strong, led by an exceptionally low-leverage balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.01) and solid recent profitability and cash generation. The main detractors are revenue volatility (2025 down ~14%) and a historically uneven free-cash-flow track record despite a very strong 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and improving versus the loss years: 2025 shows healthy margins (gross margin ~47%, EBIT margin ~15%, net margin ~23%) and net income rose from 2024. That said, revenue has been inconsistent—down ~14% in 2025 after essentially flat 2024, following strong growth in 2023—suggesting a more volatile top-line trajectory than typical for a high-scoring profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a major strength with extremely low leverage: debt-to-equity is ~0.01 in 2024–2025 (down sharply from 2022), indicating significant financial flexibility. Equity has built meaningfully across the period, and returns on equity are positive in recent years (about 10% in 2025), though below the 2023 peak, reflecting some normalization in profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in 2025 with strong operating cash flow and very robust free cash flow, and free cash flow was close to net income (suggesting earnings are reasonably supported by cash). However, cash flow quality has been uneven historically, with weak conversion and low free cash flow in 2023–2024 and negative free cash flow in 2020–2022, highlighting a track record of volatility despite the strong most-recent year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.93B	5.72B	7.06B	3.15B	1.90B
Gross Profit	2.81B	2.82B	4.53B	1.70B	570.32M
EBITDA	1.57B	1.67B	2.05B	84.28M	35.80M
Net Income	1.32B	987.98M	1.48B	-347.38M	-464.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.95B	14.41B	14.35B	12.39B	12.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.33B	2.18B	1.87B	2.85B	3.72B
Total Debt	130.86M	128.25M	145.30M	1.76B	1.13B
Total Liabilities	2.08B	3.00B	4.01B	5.24B	4.71B
Stockholders Equity	12.87B	11.41B	10.34B	7.15B	7.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.42B	262.19M	141.80M	-1.16B	-1.42B
Operating Cash Flow	2.62B	1.95B	1.12B	220.05M	-358.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.39B	-1.87B	-945.56M	-877.40M	-2.88B
Financing Cash Flow	-109.97M	55.77M	735.83M	635.82M	3.54B

Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BVNRY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.81, above the 50-day MA of 10.11, and below the 200-day MA of 10.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BVNRY.

Bavarian Nordic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BVNRY	73 Outperform	$2.26B	11.18	11.08%	―	15.28%	123.92%
KYMR	64 Neutral	$6.46B	-21.09	-29.08%	―	-50.05%	-54.47%
XENE	62 Neutral	$4.58B	-10.27	-55.81%	―	―	-38.30%
IMVT	62 Neutral	$4.80B	-10.43	-65.80%	―	―	-27.70%
APLS	56 Neutral	$2.29B	141.40	8.20%	―	42.11%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
RARE	49 Neutral	$1.98B	―	-1024.42%	―	20.63%	8.09%