Ball (BALL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.38B
• Dividend Yield: 1.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: -15.64%
• EPS Growth: -186.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): -1.96
• Shares Outstanding: 282,378,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,586,414
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,751,351
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.22
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 7.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 37.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $57.30
• Price Target Upside: 21.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

Ball Corporation's overall stock score reflects significant financial performance challenges, including declining revenues, negative EBITDA, and cash flow concerns. While recent earnings call guidance and shareholder return strategies offer some optimism, the technical analysis and valuation metrics highlight a bearish market sentiment and unattractive valuation. Improving operational efficiency and addressing regional market challenges will be key to enhancing the stock's performance.

Positive Factors

Contract Stability

Ball noting that >85% of 2026 volumes are under contract, should help ease pricing fears and increase volume visibility in the coming years as the company announced plans for new can plant in Oregon to support a contract extension.

Growth Projections

The company announced a $4 billion share repurchase authorization, which signals confidence in its long-term outlook.

Strategic Investments

BALL potentially investing $383MM as Red Bull moves ahead with hub in Concord, NC.

Negative Factors

Investor Sentiment

Stock reaction (down ~7%) is an indication of investors' frustration with Ball's ability to grow volume on a sustained basis.

Tariff Concerns

A 25% potential tariff on Canada and Mexico exports is likely to result in higher beer prices and could negatively impact consumption for major brands.

Volume Decline

Volume in North & Central America declined due to economic pressure on lower-end consumers.

Ball Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Beverage Packaging, North and Central America; Beverage Packaging, Europe, Middle East and Africa; Beverage Packaging, South America; and Aerospace. The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages. It also develops spacecraft, sensors and instruments, radio frequency systems, and other technologies for the civil, commercial, and national security aerospace markets, as well as offers defense hardware, antenna and video tactical solutions, civil and operational space hardware, and systems engineering services. In addition, the company designs, manufactures, and tests satellites, remote sensors, and ground station control hardware and software; and provides launch vehicle integration and satellite operational services. Further, it offers target identification, warning, and attitude control systems and components; cryogenic systems and associated sensor cooling devices; star trackers; and fast-steering mirrors to the government agencies or their prime contractors. Additionally, the company manufactures and sells extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Ball Corporation was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Ball Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of aluminum packaging products for beverages, personal care, and household goods. The company operates manufacturing facilities worldwide, producing billions of cans annually for leading brands in the beverage industry. Additionally, Ball's aerospace segment contributes to its earnings by providing advanced systems and components for defense, civil, and commercial space applications. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with customers, strategic partnerships with leading brands, and government contracts in the aerospace sector. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation also helps maintain competitive advantages and customer loyalty.

Ball Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ball's financial performance shows a concerning trend with declining revenues, negative EBITDA, and weakened cash flows, indicating potential issues with cost control and operational efficiency. The balance sheet remains relatively stable, with a solid equity base despite high leverage. Overall, the company needs to address its cash flow generation and improve operational performance to sustain its financial health.

Income Statement

Ball's revenue has decreased significantly over the past year, with a revenue growth rate of -15.88% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 20.70% for 2024, indicating a moderate level of profitability. However, the net profit margin of 33.97% is unusually high, driven by a one-off gain or accounting adjustment rather than operational efficiency. The EBIT margin has decreased to 3.65%, and EBITDA has turned negative, indicating declining operational performance and potential issues with cost management.

Balance Sheet

Ball has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96, reflecting a leveraged position typical for the industry, though slightly risky if interest rates rise. The return on equity (ROE) has improved to 67.56% in 2024, driven by the high net income, but this could be volatile if net income normalizes. The equity ratio remains stable at 33.63%, indicating a solid capital structure with a healthy proportion of assets funded by equity.

Cash Flow

Ball's cash flow situation has weakened significantly, with a free cash flow decline, reaching -$369 million in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is notably low at 0.03, suggesting issues in converting profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity concerns and the need to manage costs or improve operational cash generation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.79B	14.03B	15.35B	13.81B	11.78B
	Gross Profit
2.44B	2.67B	2.58B	2.73B	2.46B
	EBIT
430.00M	1.43B	1.27B	1.42B	1.22B
	EBITDA
-369.00M	1.96B	1.88B	1.98B	1.62B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
4.01B	707.00M	719.00M	878.00M	585.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
885.00M	695.00M	548.00M	563.00M	1.37B
	Total Assets
17.63B	19.30B	19.91B	19.71B	18.25B
	Total Debt
5.67B	8.57B	8.95B	7.74B	7.80B
	Net Debt
4.79B	7.87B	8.40B	7.17B	6.43B
	Total Liabilities
11.70B	15.47B	16.38B	16.03B	14.91B
	Stockholders Equity
5.93B	3.77B	3.53B	3.69B	3.34B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-369.00M	818.00M	-1.37B	34.00M	319.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
115.00M	1.86B	283.00M	1.76B	1.43B
	Investing Cash Flow
5.00B	-1.05B	-768.00M	-1.64B	-1.18B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.79B	-662.00M	485.00M	-894.00M	-602.00M

Ball Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 47.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BALL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 47.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.14, below the 50-day MA of 50.40, and below the 200-day MA of 58.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BALL.

Ball Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SLGN	72 Outperform	$5.27B	19.11	14.25%	1.56%	-2.23%	-13.56%
PKG	70 Outperform	$16.99B	21.15	19.03%	2.67%	7.45%	5.26%
CCK	64 Neutral	$9.96B	23.98	16.41%	1.19%	-1.53%	-5.16%
BERY	61 Neutral	$7.83B	16.84	19.44%	1.73%	-5.35%	-13.51%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$6.44B	11.30	3.27%	4.27%	2.37%	-21.19%
AMCR	59 Neutral	$13.57B	17.04	20.60%	5.38%	-3.54%	25.25%
BALL	45 Neutral	$13.38B	―	8.80%	1.69%	-15.64%	-186.66%