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Theta Gold Mines Ltd. (AU:TGM)
ASX:TGM

Theta Gold Mines (TGM) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:TGM

Theta Gold Mines

(Sydney:TGM)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.23
▲(37.06% Upside)
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (no revenue, ongoing losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and high leverage). Technicals provide partial support via a strong uptrend and positive MACD, but overbought readings (RSI/Stoch) add near-term risk. Valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Project focus & asset location
Operating in the historic Transvaal Goldfields anchors the company to a region with proven geology and existing infrastructure. This durable geographic advantage can improve exploration success odds and long-term resource economics if projects advance toward production.
Return to positive equity
Restoring positive equity reduces immediate solvency pressure and signals successful recapitalization or loss-absorption. This structural repair improves access to capital and creditor confidence, supporting multi-month planning and project funding flexibility versus prior distressed status.
Reduced total debt vs prior years
Management has moderated gross borrowings, which lessens near-term interest and covenant strain. A declining debt trend is a durable improvement that can lower financing risk and increase optionality for staged project investment or negotiated partner funding over the coming months.
Negative Factors
No reported revenue
As an exploration/development entity with zero reported revenue, the business lacks internal cash generation to fund operations or capex. This structural absence of revenue requires ongoing external capital and lengthens the timeline to self-sufficiency, raising execution risk.
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow
Consistent negative OCF and FCF indicate the company consumes cash to run and develop projects. Over a multi-month horizon this necessitates repeat financing, increasing dilution and refinancing risk, and constrains the firm’s ability to independently fund mine development milestones.
High leverage for a loss-making profile
A ~3.0x debt-to-equity ratio while loss-making raises structural solvency and interest-service risk. Elevated leverage limits strategic flexibility, increases probability of costly refinancing or dilution, and can slow or jeopardize project advancement if cash flows remain negative.

Theta Gold Mines (TGM) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Theta Gold Mines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTheta Gold Mines Ltd. (TGM) is a gold exploration and mining company primarily focused on developing and operating its flagship Theta Project located in the Eastern Transvaal Gold Fields of South Africa. The company is engaged in exploring, mining, and processing gold resources, with a strategic emphasis on projects that have potential for high returns on investment. Theta Gold Mines aims to maximize the extraction and production of gold through innovative technologies and sustainable practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyTheta Gold Mines Ltd. generates revenue through the exploration, mining, and sale of gold. The company's primary revenue stream is derived from the production and sale of gold extracted from its various mining operations, particularly the Theta Project. As part of its business model, TGM invests in exploration activities to identify and develop new gold reserves, enhancing its production capacity and potential future earnings. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures with other mining entities to optimize resource utilization and expand its market presence. Global gold market prices heavily influence the company's revenue, as fluctuations can impact profitability. Furthermore, Theta Gold Mines focuses on cost-efficient mining practices to maximize margins and sustain its competitive position in the industry.

Theta Gold Mines Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Very weak fundamentals: no reported revenue across periods, recurring net losses and negative EBIT/EBITDA, and persistent operating/free cash outflows. Balance sheet improved from negative equity in 2023–2024 to positive equity in 2025, and debt has moderated, but leverage remains high (debt-to-equity ~3.0x) for a loss-making, cash-burning profile.
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
The company reports no revenue across the annual periods provided, and profitability is consistently negative. Losses remain sizable (net income roughly -$4.4M to -$10.5M over 2020–2025), with EBIT/EBITDA also negative each year, indicating an operating cost structure not supported by recurring sales. A modest improvement is visible versus 2023’s deeper loss, but 2025 still shows meaningful deterioration in operating profit versus 2024, keeping overall earnings quality weak.
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Leverage is elevated: 2025 debt is about $15.4M against equity of about $5.2M (debt-to-equity ~3.0x), which is high for a loss-making profile. Equity was negative in 2023–2024, highlighting prior balance-sheet stress and potential dilution/financing risk, though it returned to positive in 2025. Total debt has come down from 2023–2024 levels, but the company still carries significant obligations relative to its capital base.
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
Cash generation remains weak, with operating cash flow negative every year shown (including about -$2.5M in 2025), implying the business is consuming cash to operate. Free cash flow is also consistently negative (about -$4.8M in 2025), which points to ongoing funding needs. There is some improvement in cash burn versus prior years, but the overall profile remains dependent on external financing given persistent negative operating and free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit0.000.00-116.00K-1.15M-605.36K306.98K
EBITDA-4.47M-4.47M-3.58M-4.66M-5.11M-3.52M
Net Income-6.89M-6.89M-6.39M-10.45M-10.53M-4.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.31M29.31M23.80M29.45M28.87M19.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.62M5.62M2.59M2.88M31.99K200.01K
Total Debt15.41M15.41M17.74M20.07M17.31M7.34M
Total Liabilities24.16M24.16M25.92M30.48M21.87M10.68M
Stockholders Equity5.15M5.15M-2.12M-1.03M7.01M8.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.30M-4.81M-6.18M-5.61M-10.69M-6.25M
Operating Cash Flow4.87M-2.48M-4.45M-4.16M-6.44M-4.04M
Investing Cash Flow-1.77M-2.54M-2.59M-786.44K-5.07M-2.15M
Financing Cash Flow1.09M8.05M7.71M7.77M11.27M6.20M

Theta Gold Mines Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.17
Price Trends
50DMA
0.19
Positive
100DMA
0.20
Positive
200DMA
0.18
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
50.62
Neutral
STOCH
38.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TGM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.21, below the 50-day MA of 0.19, and below the 200-day MA of 0.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:TGM.

Theta Gold Mines Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
AU$159.25M12.1313.04%4.01%24.48%97.18%
64
Neutral
AU$1.18B29.4422.29%117.95%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
54
Neutral
AU$220.66M-7.23-43.66%46.74%-47.98%
52
Neutral
AU$452.43M-32.23-20.84%11.43%-238.93%
49
Neutral
AU$307.81M-6.80
48
Neutral
AU$240.71M-18.03-454.45%15.86%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TGM
Theta Gold Mines
0.21
0.04
20.00%
AU:BCN
Beacon Minerals
4.38
3.32
313.21%
AU:FML
Focus Minerals Ltd
4.01
3.82
1956.41%
AU:RND
Rand Mining Limited
2.80
1.28
83.97%
AU:HRZ
Horizon Minerals Ltd
1.38
0.69
100.00%
AU:KAU
Kaiser Reef Ltd
0.35
0.18
105.88%

Theta Gold Mines Corporate Events

Theta Gold Mines Secures US$80 Million Funding for South African Project
Dec 15, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has entered into a non-binding funding agreement with Nebari Partners, LLC for a US$80 million senior secured loan facility. This funding will enable the company to complete the construction and commissioning of its TGME Gold Mine Project, with the first gold pour expected in Q1 2027. The facility offers flexibility in funding drawdowns and includes a five-year term, with interest and repayment terms designed to support the project’s development. This agreement marks a significant milestone for Theta Gold, providing full funding for its project and instilling confidence in its management and operations.

Theta Gold Mines Announces Director’s Interest Change
Dec 12, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Guyang (Brett) Tang, who has acquired additional performance rights and unlisted options. This change, approved at a recent general meeting, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align its leadership’s interests with its strategic goals, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder relations.

Theta Gold Mines Announces Director’s Securities Update
Dec 12, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding the securities held by Charles William Guy. The change involves the issuance of options and performance rights, approved by shareholders at a recent general meeting. This adjustment in securities holdings reflects strategic decisions aimed at aligning the interests of the director with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting the company’s operational strategies and stakeholder interests.

Theta Gold Mines Announces Director’s Interest Change
Dec 12, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Bill Richie Yang. The update includes the issuance of options and performance rights, which were approved at a recent general meeting. This change in securities holdings could impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, reflecting a potential shift in focus or priorities for the stakeholders involved.

Theta Gold Mines Updates Director’s Interest
Dec 12, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Hansjoerg Plaggemars acquiring additional performance rights and unlisted options. This update reflects the company’s ongoing strategic adjustments and may impact its operational dynamics and stakeholder interests as it continues to develop its gold mining projects.

Theta Gold Mines Updates Director’s Interest
Dec 12, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically for Byron Karl Lester Dumpleton. The update involves the issuance of new unlisted options and performance rights following shareholder approval, which could potentially impact the company’s stock options and performance rights structure.

Theta Gold Mines Issues New Equity Securities for Employee Incentive
Dec 10, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced the issuance of various unquoted equity securities, including options and performance rights, with different exercise prices and expiry dates ranging from 2027 to 2029. This strategic move is part of an employee incentive scheme and could potentially enhance the company’s operational capabilities and market positioning by aligning employee interests with company growth.

Theta Gold Mines Issues Options and Performance Rights to Align Interests
Dec 10, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has issued 40,950,000 options and 25,750,000 performance rights to its directors and employees as part of its remuneration and incentive framework. This initiative aims to align the interests of the company’s leadership with shareholders and reward the achievement of key performance indicators, contributing to both short-term and long-term success.

Theta Gold Mines Secures Key Equipment for TGME Gold Project
Dec 8, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has achieved a significant milestone in its TGME Gold Project by securing long-lead metallurgical circuit equipment from South African firms Kemix and MIP Industries. This procurement ensures the deployment of world-class technology, aligning with the project’s schedule for commissioning by the end of 2026. The project is expected to create over 500 jobs and contribute to community upliftment, reinforcing Theta Gold’s commitment to operational excellence and regional development.

Theta Gold Mines Director Acquires Additional Securities
Dec 3, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Byron Karl Lester Dumpleton acquiring additional securities, including 142,857 fully paid ordinary shares and 60,023 listed options. This acquisition was made through a Share Purchase Plan, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and align management interests with shareholder value.

Theta Gold Mines Allots Bonus Options to Bolster Market Position
Dec 1, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced the allotment of bonus options from its Share Purchase Plan (SPP) and placement, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value. The distribution of these options, with significant holdings by major nominees like Citicorp and HSBC, underscores the company’s efforts to strengthen its market position and potentially increase its appeal to investors.

Theta Gold Mines Issues New Listed Options to Boost Capital
Dec 1, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced the issuance of 24,249,647 listed options with an exercise price of $0.32 and an expiry date of June 1, 2027. This move is part of their strategy to raise capital and enhance their financial flexibility, potentially impacting their operational capabilities and market positioning positively.

Theta Gold Mines Reports Unanimous Approval of AGM Resolutions
Nov 28, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited announced that all resolutions proposed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting were passed unanimously, reflecting strong shareholder support. This outcome is significant for the company as it indicates a stable and supportive shareholder base, which may positively impact its strategic initiatives and industry positioning.

Theta Gold Mines Advances TGME Gold Project with Key Milestones Achieved
Nov 26, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced significant progress on its TGME Gold Project, with earthworks and civil engineering packages advancing on schedule and within budget. The completion of bulk excavations and the construction of concrete retaining walls mark major milestones toward the plant’s build, with the project on track for commissioning by the end of 2026. The project is expected to drive local employment and economic uplift, with plans for over 500 jobs at full production, supported by AI-driven training.

Theta Gold Mines Issues New Shares and Options to Bolster Financial Position
Nov 25, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced the issuance of 571,425 fully paid ordinary shares through a Share Purchase Plan, raising A$120,000. Additionally, the company has issued 30,000,000 unlisted options to Golden Asian Investment Group Limited and High Gift Investment Limited, which could potentially impact the company’s financial structure and shareholder base.

Theta Gold Mines Issues 30 Million Unlisted Options to Boost Growth
Nov 25, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited announced the issuance of 30 million unlisted options with varying exercise prices and an expiry date of May 25, 2027. This strategic move is part of a previously announced transaction, potentially enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and supporting its growth plans in the competitive gold mining sector.

Theta Gold Mines Announces Quotation of New Securities
Nov 25, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced the application for quotation of 571,425 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), with the issue date being November 24, 2025. This move is part of previously announced transactions and could potentially enhance the company’s liquidity and investor base, impacting its financial operations and market presence positively.

Theta Gold Mines Completes Share Purchase Plan and Issues Unlisted Options
Nov 25, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has successfully completed its Share Purchase Plan (SPP), issuing 571,425 new fully paid ordinary shares at $0.21 per share. These shares will begin trading on the ASX and will rank equally with existing shares. Additionally, the company has issued 30,000,000 unlisted options to Golden Asia Investment Group Limited and High Gift Investment Ltd as compensation for long-term financial support, allowing the company to proceed with project contracts. These options are issued in three tranches with varying exercise prices and expiry dates, providing flexibility for investors.

Theta Gold Mines Completes Share Purchase Plan and Options Offers
Nov 19, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has successfully completed its Share Purchase Plan (SPP), raising $120,000 before costs, with Non-Executive Director Byron Dumpleton participating with a $30,000 allocation. The company will issue 571,425 fully paid ordinary shares and grant options to eligible shareholders and placement participants, subject to shareholder approval, as part of its strategic efforts to strengthen its financial position and enhance shareholder value.

Theta Gold Mines to Approve Share Issuance for Convertible Loan Conversion
Nov 11, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a General Meeting to approve the issuance of shares as part of the conversion of convertible loans to three entities: Deutsche Balaton AG, Aus Agriculture Pty Ltd, and Golden Asia Investment Group Limited. This strategic move is aimed at strengthening the company’s financial position and supporting its ongoing projects, potentially enhancing its market presence and stakeholder value.

Theta Gold Mines Announces Upcoming General Meeting for Shareholders
Nov 11, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a General Meeting for its shareholders, scheduled for December 11, 2025, in Sydney. The meeting will address important company matters, and shareholders are encouraged to participate by voting online by December 9, 2025. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to engaging with its stakeholders and ensuring transparency in its operations.

Theta Gold Mines Secures Key Equipment for TGME Plant Construction
Nov 3, 2025

Theta Gold Mines is advancing the construction of its TGME gold plant by securing two Titan GDM3065 Ball Mills from MechProTech, a South African engineering firm. This strategic acquisition is expected to accelerate construction, reduce costs, and enhance operational flexibility, setting a new standard in mineral processing performance.

Theta Gold Mines Advances TGME Project with Construction Kickoff and Funding Boost
Oct 31, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has commenced construction activities at its TGME Gold Mine Project, marking a significant step towards gold production. The company has secured substantial funding through equity and debt, which will accelerate earthworks and civil engineering efforts, enhance water management systems, and support local employment, thereby strengthening its position in the gold mining industry.

Theta Gold Mines Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting
Oct 28, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for November 28, 2025, in Sydney. The agenda includes receiving the financial report for the year ended June 30, 2025, and a resolution on the adoption of the remuneration report. The meeting will address the company’s financial performance and executive remuneration, with implications for shareholder engagement and governance practices.

Theta Gold Mines Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting
Oct 28, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for November 28, 2025, in Sydney. Shareholders are encouraged to participate and vote, with proxy voting available online until November 26, 2025. This AGM is a pivotal event for stakeholders to engage with the company’s strategic direction and operational updates.

Theta Gold Mines Limited Announces New Prospectus for Placement and SPP Options
Oct 24, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has issued a prospectus for the offering of Placement Options and SPP Options to participants under specific conditions. This transaction-specific prospectus is a critical document for participants and highlights the speculative nature of the investment. The offering aims to enhance the company’s financial structure, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning.

Theta Gold Mines Launches Share Purchase Plan for Eligible Shareholders
Oct 24, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) offering, allowing eligible shareholders to purchase up to $30,000 of fully paid ordinary shares without incurring brokerage or transaction costs. This initiative is aimed at raising capital and potentially enhancing shareholder value, with the offer closing on November 17, 2025. The SPP is not available to U.S. persons, and the company reserves the right to modify the offer’s terms as needed.

Theta Gold Mines Launches Share Purchase Plan and Options Offer
Oct 24, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced the opening of a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) and an offer of free attaching options under an Options Prospectus. The SPP allows eligible shareholders to purchase shares at $0.21 each, the same price offered in a recent private placement that raised A$12 million. Additionally, shareholders participating in the SPP or the private placement will receive one free attaching option for every 2.38 shares subscribed, exercisable at $0.32 and expiring 18 months after the grant. This initiative is part of the company’s strategy to bolster its capital and enhance shareholder value.

Theta Gold Mines Announces General Meeting for Strategic Resolutions
Oct 23, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a General Meeting to be held on November 24, 2025, where shareholders will vote on several resolutions. These include the ratification of prior issues of shares and options to Hong Kong Ruihua Green Development Limited, and the issuance of consultant shares to Rena Le Rona Pty Ltd in lieu of cash payment for legal consulting services in South Africa. These moves are part of the company’s strategic initiatives to enhance its financial structure and operational capabilities.

Theta Gold Mines Announces Upcoming General Meeting for Shareholders
Oct 23, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a General Meeting scheduled for November 24, 2025, in Sydney, where shareholders can discuss and vote on company matters. This meeting is a significant event for stakeholders as it provides an opportunity to influence the company’s future direction and operational strategies.

Theta Gold Mines Advances TGME Project with Key Milestones
Oct 22, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has achieved a significant milestone in its TGME Gold Mine Project, with contractors and heavy equipment fully mobilized on site, allowing for the commencement of bulk earthworks and civil works at the Carbon-in-Leach section. The company is advancing negotiations with equipment suppliers and has strengthened its financial position through recent capital raises, positioning it to complete civil works and advance towards plant commissioning by the end of 2026, with full-scale operations expected to create over 500 jobs.

Theta Gold Mines Announces Proposed Securities Issue to Boost Capital
Oct 21, 2025

Theta Gold Mines Limited has announced a proposed issue of securities, which includes a placement of ordinary shares and options. The issuance aims to raise capital to support the company’s operations and strategic initiatives, potentially enhancing its market position and providing value to stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 20, 2026