Region Group (AU:RGN)
ASX:RGN
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Region Group
(Sydney:RGN)
Select Model
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$2.50
▲(11.11% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong growth and margins, manageable leverage) but tempered by negative free cash flow. Valuation is supportive with a high dividend yield and reasonable P/E, while the latest earnings call was constructive with upgraded guidance and resilient operating metrics. Technical signals are mildly weak (negative MACD and below key moving averages), limiting the overall score.
Positive Factors
High occupancy & improving vacancy
Very high portfolio occupancy (97.7%) and improving specialty vacancy (4.5%) alongside H1 comparable NOI growth (+3.7%) support durable rental cash flows. High physical occupancy reduces vacancy-driven revenue volatility, strengthens tenant retention prospects and underpins stable distributable income over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
A sharp fall to negative free cash flow (down ~121.8%) undermines internal funding capacity for capex, development and buybacks despite positive operating cash flow. Persistent negative FCF increases reliance on external financing or asset sales, constraining strategic flexibility and potentially pressuring distributions if not reversed.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High occupancy & improving vacancy
Very high portfolio occupancy (97.7%) and improving specialty vacancy (4.5%) alongside H1 comparable NOI growth (+3.7%) support durable rental cash flows. High physical occupancy reduces vacancy-driven revenue volatility, strengthens tenant retention prospects and underpins stable distributable income over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Region Group (RGN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$2.59B
Dividend Yield5.61%
Average Volume (3M)2.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.8
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth0.03%
EPS Growth1135.14%
CountryAU
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding1,149,222,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,248,246
30 Day Avg. Volume2,823,719
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)6.69
P/FCF Ratio-156.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.45Price Target Upside8.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$329.91M
Region Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
SCA Property Group (SCP) includes two internally managed real estate investment trusts owning a portfolio of quality neighbourhood and sub-regional shopping centres located across Australia. The SCA Property Group invests in shopping centres predo...
How the Company Makes Money
Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE generates revenue primarily through leasing retail spaces to tenants, which includes both fixed rents and percentage rents based on tenants' sales performance. The company benefits from long-term leas...
Region Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial performance: earnings and AFFO grew, portfolio metrics (occupancy, specialty vacancy, comparable NOI and sales) were resilient, AUM and NTA increased, and management secured favorable debt funding and strong hedging which reduces near-term rate risk. Headwinds included a modest rise in average debt costs, elevated leasing incentives and costs to lease Mosaic-origin vacancies, flat renewal spreads driven by a small number of renewals, and the fact that guidance does not assume further buybacks. Overall, the positive operational and capital management outcomes outweigh the manageable challenges.Positive Updates
FFO and AFFO Growth
Funds from operations (FFO) for H1 FY26 was $0.079 per security, up 3.9% vs Dec 2024. Adjusted FFO (AFFO) and distribution per security were $0.069, with AFFO up 3.0% vs Dec 2024 and distributions paid at a 100% AFFO payout ratio.
Negative Updates
Rising Weighted Average Cost of Debt
Weighted average cost of debt increased from 4.3% to 4.6% during H1, partially offsetting FFO growth; management expects a slight decrease to ~4.5% for the full year but flagged interest cost headwinds.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
FFO and AFFO Growth
Funds from operations (FFO) for H1 FY26 was $0.079 per security, up 3.9% vs Dec 2024. Adjusted FFO (AFFO) and distribution per security were $0.069, with AFFO up 3.0% vs Dec 2024 and distributions paid at a 100% AFFO payout ratio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Region upgraded FY‑26 earnings guidance to FFO $0.16 per security (from $0.159), +3.2% on FY‑25, and AFFO $0.411 per security (from prior guidance of $0.14), with a 100% AFFO payout (H1 distribution $0.069 per security); H1 FFO was $0.079 (+3.9% vs Dec‑24) and AFFO +3%; full‑year comparable NOI guidance remains ~3.3% (H1 comparable NOI +3.7%), medium‑term FFO/AFFO growth target 3–4% p.a.; balance sheet and portfolio metrics supporting guidance include AUM $5.4bn (+3.9% vs June‑25), NTA $2.56 (+3.6%), gearing 32.7%, WALE 4.8 years, occupancy 97.7%, specialty vacancy 4.5%, comparable MAT +3.1% p.a., avg specialty rent $930/sqm (5% annualized since Dec‑22), avg annual fixed rent reviews 4.3%, specialty leasing spread 3.4% (new leases 7%), cap rate firmed 10bps to 5.87%, 3% fair value uplift since June‑25, weighted average cost of debt 4.6% (expected ~4.5% FY), 100% of FY‑26 debt hedged at 2.89% (87% FY‑27, 70% FY‑28, avg hedged ~3% over 3 years), H1 buyback 6.7m securities at $2.39 (~$16m; 8.9m / ~$21m since start), and FY‑26 capex guidance ~ $65m (H1 $32m).Region Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 389.80M | 382.00M | 372.10M | 363.70M | 311.80M | 329.70M |
| Gross Profit | 259.90M | 244.70M | 231.80M | 235.70M | 194.40M | 229.60M |
| EBITDA | 222.90M | 278.90M | 241.40M | 240.60M | 175.10M | 146.20M |
| Net Income | 310.70M | 212.50M | 17.30M | -123.60M | 487.10M | 462.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.76B | 4.59B | 4.55B | 4.62B | 4.70B | 4.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.60M | 8.50M | 19.40M | 31.90M | 8.70M | 11.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.63B | 1.57B | 1.58B | 1.52B | 1.38B | 1.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.81B | 1.73B | 1.74B | 1.69B | 1.56B | 1.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.95B | 2.86B | 2.81B | 2.93B | 3.13B | 2.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.00M | -16.30M | 182.80M | 176.80M | 179.40M | 145.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 164.20M | 154.40M | 182.80M | 176.80M | 179.40M | 145.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -45.50M | 10.60M | -90.60M | -207.20M | -129.80M | -324.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -123.80M | -175.90M | -96.60M | 45.50M | -52.50M | 187.70M |
Region Group Technical Analysis
Positive
2.25
Price Trends
2.25
Positive
2.30
Negative
2.30
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
56.59
Neutral
82.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.18, above the 50-day MA of 2.25, and below the 200-day MA of 2.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:RGN.
Region Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$2.52B | 2.94 | 11.96% | 6.09% | 2.70% | 205.08% | |
70 Outperform | AU$2.59B | 3.79 | 10.68% | 5.61% | 0.03% | 1135.14% | |
70 Outperform | AU$1.60B | 5.41 | 8.46% | 1.81% | 6.96% | 815.99% | |
69 Neutral | AU$2.63B | 3.21 | 11.25% | 4.87% | 16.53% | 36.39% | |
67 Neutral | AU$360.21M | 2.70 | 11.81% | 7.46% | -3.97% | 1057.09% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | AU$2.14B | 2.46 | 12.47% | 7.72% | -9.69% | 1142.57% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:RGN
Region Group
2.25
0.19
9.12%
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Region Group Corporate Events
Region Group Delivers Strong 1H FY26 Result and Lifts Earnings Guidance
Feb 9, 2026
Region Group reported a strong first half of FY26, with statutory net profit after tax of $180 million, higher FFO and AFFO per security, and an increased distribution supported by a $5.4 billion asset base and improved net tangible assets. The gr...
Region Group Delivers Strong Half-Year Profit and Lifts Distribution
Feb 9, 2026
Region Group reported a solid first half to 31 December 2025, with revenue from ordinary activities rising 2.0% to $195.8 million and net profit attributable to members more than doubling to $180.0 million. Funds from Operations, viewed by the Res...
Region Group Details Tax Components of Half-Year FY26 Distribution for Non-Resident Investors
Jan 29, 2026
Region Group has confirmed the taxation components of its half-year FY26 distribution of 6.9 cents per stapled security for the period ended 31 December 2025, payable on or about 30 January 2026, providing specific guidance for custodians and othe...
Region Group Sets March 2026 Start Date for New CEO Greg Chubb
Jan 19, 2026
Region Group has announced that Greg Chubb will commence as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director on 9 March 2026, formalising the leadership transition flagged in an earlier notice that outlined his background and employment terms. Incumb...
Region Group Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Securities
Dec 23, 2025
Region Group has applied to the ASX for quotation of 29,181 fully paid stapled securities, issued under an employee incentive scheme. The new securities, carrying the ticker RGN, were issued on 24 December 2025 and will be quoted on the ASX, modes...
Region Group Cancels 6.5 Million Stapled Securities After On‑Market Buy‑Back
Dec 22, 2025
Region Group has cancelled 6,505,241 fully paid stapled securities following an on‑market buy‑back completed on 18 December 2025. The reduction in securities on issue is expected to be marginally accretive to remaining investors by con...
Region Group Announces Distribution for H2 2025
Dec 16, 2025
Region Group, listed under the ASX code RGN, has announced a distribution of AUD 0.069 per fully paid unit stapled security. The distribution is for the six-month period ending December 31, 2025, with an ex-date of December 30, 2025, and a payment...
Region Group Reports $129.2 Million Increase in Property Valuations
Dec 16, 2025
Region Group announced an increase in the total value of its investment properties by $129.2 million, reaching $4,503.3 million as of December 31, 2025. This growth is attributed to a combination of like-for-like valuation increases and capital ex...
Region Group Announces FY26 Half-Year Distribution and Guidance
Dec 16, 2025
Region Group has announced a distribution of 6.9 cents per stapled security for the period from July to December 2025, with payments scheduled for January 2026. The company has confirmed its FY26 AFFO guidance at 14.0 cents per security, maintaini...
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Alters Stake in Shopping Centres Australasia
Dec 10, 2025
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. has ceased to be a substantial holder in Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE, as indicated by the recent changes in their voting securities. This change involves the purchase of securities by entitie...
First Sentier Investors Ceases Substantial Holding in Shopping Centres Australasia
Dec 9, 2025
First Sentier Investors has announced that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s influence in the voting securities of the grou...
Region Group Updates on Buy-Back Program
Dec 8, 2025
Region Group, trading under the ASX code RGN, has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of December 9, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 8,871,754 fully paid units stapled securities, including 453,237...
Region Group Updates on Securities Buy-Back Program
Dec 7, 2025
Region Group has announced an update regarding its ongoing buy-back program for its fully paid units stapled securities, identified by the ASX code RGN. The company has been actively buying back its securities, with a total of 7,873,997 securities...
Region Group Updates on Market Buy-Back Progress
Dec 4, 2025
Region Group has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back of fully paid units stapled securities, identified by the ASX security code RGN. As of December 5, 2025, the company reported a total of 7,177,449 securities bought back...
Region Group Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Dec 2, 2025
Region Group, listed under the ASX security code RGN, has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program for its fully paid units stapled securities. The latest notification reveals that a total of 34,976 securities were boug...
Region Group Updates on Ongoing Buy-Back Program
Dec 1, 2025
Region Group has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program for its fully paid units stapled securities, identified by the ASX security code RGN. The company has repurchased a total of 6,715,728 securities before the prev...
Region Group Updates on Ongoing Buy-Back Program
Nov 30, 2025
Region Group has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program, revealing that a total of 405,540 securities were bought back on the previous day, adding to a cumulative total of 6,310,188 securities repurchased. This buy-ba...
Region Group Updates on Market Buy-Back Progress
Nov 27, 2025
Region Group, trading under the ASX code RGN, has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program for its fully paid units stapled securities. As of November 28, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 6,310,188 securitie...
Region Group Announces Update on Securities Buy-Back Program
Nov 26, 2025
Region Group, operating under the ASX security code RGN, has announced an update regarding its ongoing buy-back program of fully paid units stapled securities. The company reported a total of 5,525,482 securities bought back before the previous da...
Region Group Updates on Securities Buy-Back Program
Nov 25, 2025
Region Group, operating under the ASX code RGN, has announced an update regarding their ongoing buy-back program. The company has repurchased a total of 772,178 fully paid units stapled securities on the previous day, contributing to a cumulative ...
Region Group Updates on Securities Buy-Back Progress
Nov 24, 2025
Region Group has announced an update regarding its ongoing buy-back program for its fully paid units stapled securities, as part of its strategic financial management. The latest notification reveals that a total of 543,314 securities were bought ...
Region Group Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Nov 23, 2025
Region Group, operating under the ASX code RGN, has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of November 24, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 3,815,418 securities, with an additional 394,572 securities b...
Director’s Interest Change at Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE
Nov 21, 2025
Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding Rhonda Jane Lloyd. The notice details an on-market purchase of 12,000 stapled units by Ms. Lloyd, increasing her ...
Director’s Interest Change at Region Group Signals Confidence
Nov 21, 2025
Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE, operating under the name Region Group, is involved in property management and investment with a focus on retail assets. The recent announcement details a change in the director’s interest, wher...
Region Group Updates on Securities Buy-Back Progress
Nov 19, 2025
Region Group has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back of fully paid units stapled securities, under the ASX code RGN. The company reported that it bought back a total of 261,075 securities on the previous day, adding to the...
Region Group Updates on Ongoing Securities Buy-Back
Nov 17, 2025
Region Group has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back of fully paid units stapled securities, with a total of 2,366,513 securities bought back before the previous day and an additional 211,744 securities acquired on the pre...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.