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Region Group
(Sydney:RGN)
Select Model
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.50
â–²(6.38% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by solid overall financial performance but tempered by weaker free-cash-flow conversion and historical earnings volatility. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and strong yield), while the latest earnings call supports a constructive outlook via steady FY'27 growth guidance and improving occupancy/leasing, partially offset by rising debt costs and softer discretionary retail trends. Technicals are currently neutral-to-soft, limiting the overall score.
Positive Factors
High occupancy and stronger leasing
High occupancy supports recurring rental income, while positive leasing spreads and long new-lease terms improve income visibility. These metrics indicate sustained tenant demand and provide a durable base for organic rental growth.
Negative Factors
Weak free-cash-flow conversion
Weak conversion of reported earnings into free cash limits internally generated funds for distributions, debt reduction and redevelopment. If sustained, it could increase reliance on financing or asset disposals to fund property investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High occupancy and stronger leasing
High occupancy supports recurring rental income, while positive leasing spreads and long new-lease terms improve income visibility. These metrics indicate sustained tenant demand and provide a durable base for organic rental growth.
Read all positive factors
Region Group (RGN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$2.65B
Dividend Yield6.24%
Average Volume (3M)2.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.5
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth29.97%
EPS Growth27.19%
CountryAU
Employees117
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding1,148,742,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,248,246
30 Day Avg. Volume2,823,719
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)5.51
P/FCF Ratio74.78
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.47Price Target Upside4.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$317.57M
Region Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Region Group is structured as a stapled entity comprising two internally managed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): the Shopping Centres Australasia Property Management Trust (ARSN 160 612 626) and the Shopping Centres Australasia Property Ret...
How the Company Makes Money
Region Group primarily makes money by generating rental income from tenants leasing space in its shopping centre portfolio. Its core revenue stream is contracted base rent (typically under multi-year commercial leases), supplemented by tenant reco...
Region Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 17, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 08, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial result: solid retail sales momentum (notably supermarkets), improved occupancy and leasing metrics, portfolio valuation uplifts, disciplined capital management and clear FY'27 guidance. Challenges were disclosed around a modest increase in borrowing costs as hedges roll off, a competitive transaction market limiting acquisitive growth, and some softening in discretionary specialty sales in H2. Management highlighted a clear plan to prioritise organic asset enhancements, targeted divestments and selective partnership-led inorganic growth to drive 3%–4% sustainable AFFO growth.Positive Updates
Strong Retail Sales and Supermarket Momentum
Total comparable portfolio MAT growth of 3.3% for FY'26; comparable supermarket MAT growth of 4.1% (up from 3.3% last year). Specialty comparable sales growth of 2.5% and specialty sales productivity up >3% to $10,345 per sqm.
Negative Updates
Rising Cost of Debt and Hedging Roll-Off
Weighted average cost of debt increased 20 bps to 4.5% in FY'26 and management expects ~4.6% in FY'27 due to some hedges maturing and a portion reverting to floating market rates; interest expense growth noted during the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Retail Sales and Supermarket Momentum
Total comparable portfolio MAT growth of 3.3% for FY'26; comparable supermarket MAT growth of 4.1% (up from 3.3% last year). Specialty comparable sales growth of 2.5% and specialty sales productivity up >3% to $10,345 per sqm.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Region’s FY‑27 guidance assumes no further transactional activity and targets 3% FFO growth to $0.165 per security and 3% AFFO growth to $0.145 per security with a targeted distribution payout ratio of 100% of AFFO (management’s medium‑term aim is 3–4%+ sustainable AFFO growth per security); this is provided in the context of a pro‑forma gearing of 34.1% (target range 30–40%), >$200m undrawn capacity, AUM of $5.5bn, NTA of $2.57 (up 4%), FY‑26 FFO/AFFO of $0.16/$0.141 and FY‑26 distribution $0.141, 100% hedged FY‑26 with FY‑27 weighted average cost of debt expected around 4.6% (WAB margin ~1.4–1.5%); management noted that comparable funds‑management/Metro Fund activity similar to FY‑26 would push outcomes toward the top of the 3–4% range.Region Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 488.80M | 382.00M | 372.10M | 363.70M | 311.80M |
| Gross Profit | 352.10M | 244.70M | 231.80M | 235.70M | 194.40M |
| EBITDA | 339.70M | 278.90M | 241.40M | 240.60M | 175.10M |
| Net Income | 268.80M | 212.50M | 17.30M | -123.60M | 487.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.76B | 4.59B | 4.55B | 4.62B | 4.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.60M | 8.50M | 19.40M | 31.90M | 8.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.64B | 1.57B | 1.58B | 1.52B | 1.38B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.81B | 1.73B | 1.74B | 1.69B | 1.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.95B | 2.86B | 2.81B | 2.93B | 3.13B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 36.00M | -16.30M | 182.80M | 176.80M | 179.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 182.10M | 154.40M | 182.80M | 176.80M | 179.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -137.10M | 10.60M | -90.60M | -207.20M | -129.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -37.90M | -175.90M | -96.60M | 45.50M | -52.50M |
Region Group Technical Analysis
Negative
2.35
Price Trends
2.36
Negative
2.28
Negative
2.26
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
29.29
Positive
16.90
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.38, below the 50-day MA of 2.36, and above the 200-day MA of 2.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RGN.
Region Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | AU$2.43B | 6.49 | 11.14% | 6.88% | 3.75% | 44.09% | |
75 Outperform | AU$2.35B | 5.94 | 13.47% | 6.57% | 31.33% | 82.16% | |
74 Outperform | AU$11.97B | 8.79 | 11.52% | 4.66% | 0.27% | 60.68% | |
73 Outperform | AU$2.94B | 6.80 | 11.25% | 4.87% | 2.96% | 50.62% | |
72 Outperform | AU$370.39M | 6.68 | 15.00% | 7.80% | -5.59% | 43.56% | |
69 Neutral | AU$2.65B | 9.46 | 10.68% | 6.00% | 29.97% | 27.19% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:RGN
Region Group
2.26
-0.03
-1.40%
AU:VCX
Vicinity Centres
2.53
0.02
0.96%
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Charter Hall Retail REIT
4.00
<0.01
0.08%
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Dexus Convenience Retail REIT
2.73
-0.12
-4.14%
AU:BWP
BWP Trust
3.80
0.34
9.70%
AU:HDN
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1.15
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-7.63%
Region Group Corporate Events
Region Group files 2026 corporate governance statement with ASX
Aug 17, 2026
Region Group has lodged its corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026 with the ASX, confirming the document is current as of 17 August 2026 and approved by the board. The statement is available on the company’s website a...
Region Group Delivers Strong FY26 Results and Guides Further Earnings Growth
Aug 17, 2026
Region Group reported a statutory net profit after tax of $268.8 million for FY26, with funds from operations rising 3.2% to 16.0 cents per security and adjusted FFO up 2.9% to 14.1 cents, all of which was distributed to investors. Net tangible as...
MUFG Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Region Group
Aug 7, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has lodged a notice under Australia’s Corporations Act confirming it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Region Group’s stapled securities. The change follows a series of purchases and sales of fully...
First Sentier exits substantial holding in Region Group
Aug 6, 2026
First Sentier Group Limited and a wide network of its related entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial holders in Region Group as of 4 August 2026. The filing lists multiple First Sentier and Mitsubishi UFJ–relat...
Region Group Discloses Board Change and Director’s Final Interests
Jul 14, 2026
Region Group has announced that director Michael Graeme Herring ceased to be a director of the entity effective 14 July 2026, as disclosed in a final director’s interest notice to the ASX. At the time of his departure, Herring held 120,000 o...
Region Group Director Michael Herring Retires as Board Search Advances
Jul 14, 2026
Region Group has announced the retirement of non-executive director Michael Herring, effective immediately, ending his tenure on the board after joining in 2022. Herring served on the Audit, Risk Management and Compliance, Investment and Nominatio...
Yarra Capital Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Region Group
Jul 13, 2026
Yarra Capital Management and a group of related entities have notified Region Group that they have ceased to be substantial holders in the retail property trust operator, following a series of on‑market trades completed between 1 May and 9 J...
Region Group Sets Final FY26 Distribution and Suspends DRP
Jun 16, 2026
Region Group has declared a final distribution of 7.2 cents per stapled security for the six months to 30 June 2026, bringing the total FY26 distribution to 14.1 cents per stapled security. The payment will be made on 28 August 2026 to holders on ...
Region Group lifts property portfolio value to $4.6bn as cap rates edge lower
Jun 16, 2026
Region Group has reported that the total value of its investment properties rose to $4.60 billion as at 30 June 2026, up $94.8 million from 31 December 2025, driven by like‑for‑like valuation gains, acquisitions and capital expenditure...
Mitsubishi UFJ exits substantial holder position in Region Group
May 22, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has lodged a notice with Region Group stating it has ceased to be a substantial holder in the stapled securities of the Australian retail-focused real estate group. The change follows a series of trades on 1 May 2026...
First Sentier Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Region Group
May 21, 2026
First Sentier Group Limited and a wide network of related bodies corporate, including multiple First Sentier Investors entities and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group affiliates, have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial holders in ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.