Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$16.46B
• Dividend Yield: 2.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 9.24%
• EPS Growth: -7.82%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 1,513,199,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,388,217
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,731,599
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$11.12
• Price Target Upside: 1.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$12.00 ▲(9.59% Upside)

Qantas Airways' overall stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and fair valuation. However, financial performance is hindered by profitability and leverage concerns. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data did not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

Qantas's loyalty program, one of the world's most diverse airline loyalty programmes, is expected to further boost earnings growth with underlying EBIT expected to reach AUD500-550m in FY24F.

Market Position

Qantas has increased its market share in both the domestic and international markets over the pandemic due to consolidation in the sector and its stronger financial position.

Strategic Management

Exiting the Jetstar Asia business is seen as a positive move, demonstrating management discipline and reducing renewal capital expenses over time.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Jetstar Asia losses are likely worse than market expectations, impacting Qantas’ financial outlook.

Fuel Costs

Higher than expected fuel costs will have a negative impact on profitability, though Qantas is better hedged than most competitors.

Operational Challenges

A capacity reduction to Group International is expected due to industrial action on the Finnair wet lease.

Qantas Airways Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) is Australia's largest airline and one of the oldest continuously operating airlines in the world, having been founded in 1920. Headquartered in Sydney, Qantas operates a comprehensive domestic and international network, serving both passenger and cargo transportation. The airline is known for its premium service and extensive route network, which includes partnerships and alliances with other global airlines. Additionally, Qantas offers travel-related services such as holiday packages and operates several subsidiaries, including Jetstar, a low-cost carrier.

How the Company Makes Money

Qantas Airways Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of passenger tickets for domestic and international flights. This is the largest component of its income, driven by its extensive network and service offerings. The company also earns significant revenue from its freight division, Qantas Freight, which handles cargo transportation. Another key revenue stream comes from its loyalty program, Qantas Frequent Flyer, which offers points redemption options and partnerships with various businesses. Ancillary services, such as on-board sales and baggage fees, also contribute to its earnings. Moreover, Qantas benefits from its Jetstar subsidiary, which taps into the budget travel market. Strategic partnerships and alliances with other airlines further enhance its revenue potential by expanding its market reach.

Qantas Airways Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Qantas demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, profitability is challenged with declining net profit and free cash flow margins. The balance sheet is highly leveraged, posing financial risk.

Income Statement

Qantas has shown significant improvement in revenue growth, with a 10.7% increase in 2024 compared to 2023. The gross profit margin increased to 53.0% in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin declined to 5.8% from 8.9% in 2023, suggesting challenges in converting revenue into profit. EBIT and EBITDA margins also showed a decline from the previous year, highlighting some pressure on core earnings.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio improved but remains high at 22.80, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity (ROE) is robust at 434.6%, driven by high net income relative to equity, but this is partly due to the low equity base. The equity ratio remains very low at 1.4%, showing limited equity cushion against liabilities.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow decreased significantly, with a 72.7% decline from 2023 to 2024. Operating cash flow remains strong relative to net income, indicating solid cash generation capabilities, despite challenges in maintaining free cash flow levels. The free cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting that not all earnings are translating into free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.62B	19.52B	8.70B	5.38B	14.05B
Gross Profit	11.46B	10.97B	4.52B	-991.00M	4.12B
EBITDA	3.90B	4.52B	928.00M	-176.00M	-334.00M
Net Income	1.25B	1.75B	-860.00M	-1.69B	-1.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.56B	20.35B	19.65B	17.81B	20.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.98B	3.17B	3.34B	2.22B	3.52B
Total Debt	6.59B	6.73B	7.23B	8.23B	8.54B
Total Liabilities	20.27B	20.34B	19.84B	17.36B	18.50B
Stockholders Equity	289.00M	5.00M	-197.00M	440.00M	1.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	680.00M	2.49B	1.75B	-1.15B	-514.00M
Operating Cash Flow	3.35B	5.05B	2.65B	-407.00M	1.03B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.89B	-2.59B	-225.00M	-701.00M	-1.52B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.01B	-2.63B	-1.31B	-181.00M	1.85B

Qantas Airways Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:QAN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.89, above the 50-day MA of 10.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:QAN.

Qantas Airways Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AQZ	75 Outperform	AU$424.91M	6.66	15.44%	―	16.98%	12.16%
QAN	74 Outperform	AU$16.46B	12.98	321.42%	2.20%	9.24%	-7.82%
Sector *	59 Neutral	AU$1.62B	9.94	2.84%	3.53%	9.79%	5.94%

Qantas Airways Limited Corporate Events

Qantas Announces Change in Director’s Interest for James Todd Sampson

Qantas Airways Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for James Todd Sampson, who retired as a Non-Executive Director effective July 31, 2025. As a result, the rights under the Qantas Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Share Plan lapsed, and restrictions on shares held by the Employee Share Plan Trust were lifted, allowing Mr. Sampson to hold 47,281 ordinary shares directly. This change reflects the company’s adherence to its governance policies and impacts the distribution of shares among its directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Airways Announces Cessation of NED Rights Securities

Qantas Airways Limited announced the cessation of 1,134 NED rights securities due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting the company’s ongoing adjustments in its financial and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Airways Cyber Incident: Customer Data Breach Contained

Qantas Airways has experienced a cyber incident affecting customer data at one of its contact centers. While the breach involved unauthorized access to a third-party customer servicing platform, Qantas’ operations and airline safety remain unaffected. The company is actively reaching out to affected customers to provide support and has implemented additional security measures. The breach did not compromise credit card details or personal financial information, and Qantas is working with Australian authorities to investigate the incident.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Airways Announces Change in Voting Share Control

Qantas Airways Limited has announced a change in the control of voting shares, with its controlled entities no longer holding any interest in such shares. This change follows the transfer of shares from Qantas Superannuation Limited to Australian Retirement Trust as part of a successor fund transfer, indicating a shift in the company’s shareholding structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Group to Close Jetstar Asia Amid Strategic Restructure

Qantas Group has announced the closure of its Singapore-based low-cost subsidiary, Jetstar Asia, as part of a strategic restructure to support its fleet renewal program. This move will recycle up to $500 million in capital, allowing the redeployment of 13 Airbus A320 aircraft to Australia and New Zealand, creating local jobs and offering more low fares. The decision comes amid rising costs and competition in the region, with Jetstar Asia expected to post a $35 million EBIT loss this financial year. The closure will impact 16 intra-Asia routes but not Jetstar Airways’ or Jetstar Japan’s operations. Qantas will provide support to affected employees and customers, and the closure will result in financial impacts estimated at $175 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.