Qantas Airways Limited (AU:QAN)
ASX:QAN
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Qantas Airways Limited
(Sydney:QAN)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.00
▲(3.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score reflects a balance of (1) meaningful financial risk from high leverage and weakened free cash flow, and (2) bearish technicals, partially offset by (3) very compelling valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and (4) a generally positive earnings outlook with continued cash generation and shareholder returns despite rising cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Loyalty business momentum
Qantas Loyalty's rising EBIT and 18m+ member base provide durable, high‑margin, cash‑generative revenue less sensitive to travel cycles. Program enhancements (status credit rollover, everyday spend earning) should deepen engagement, boost third‑party partnerships, and sustain long‑term recurring cash flows.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Extremely elevated leverage constrains financial flexibility, increases refinancing and interest risk, and limits ability to absorb shocks or opportunistically invest. Over 2–6 months this raises funding sensitivity as capex and fleet payments roll, potentially forcing tighter liquidity management or asset sales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty business momentum
Qantas Loyalty's rising EBIT and 18m+ member base provide durable, high‑margin, cash‑generative revenue less sensitive to travel cycles. Program enhancements (status credit rollover, everyday spend earning) should deepen engagement, boost third‑party partnerships, and sustain long‑term recurring cash flows.
Read all positive factors
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$13.03B
Dividend Yield4.9%
Average Volume (3M)5.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.2
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth8.29%
EPS Growth38.28%
CountryAU
Employees20,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.68
Shares Outstanding1,513,199,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,660,879
30 Day Avg. Volume5,327,379
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)21.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.70
P/FCF Ratio49.48
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$12.08Price Target Upside39.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$25.49B
Qantas Airways Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Qantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments. It offers passenger flying, and air cargo...
How the Company Makes Money
Qantas primarily makes money by selling air travel and related services across a portfolio of brands and business lines. A major revenue stream is passenger ticket sales on domestic and international routes, with revenue influenced by seat capacit...
Qantas Airways Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: solid underlying profit and EPS growth, strong operating cash flow, accelerating fleet renewal with tangible benefits (notably at Jetstar), robust domestic performance and continued Loyalty momentum, alongside increased shareholder distributions. However, the positive narrative is tempered by meaningful near-term cost pressures—engineering, labor (including Same Job Same Pay), higher depreciation from accelerated fleet investment, unfavorable FX, and a weaker-than-expected International EBIT performance. Management has provided sensible mitigation actions (capacity redeployments, portfolio rationalization, focus on capital allocation) and clear guidance on capex and RASK outlooks.Positive Updates
Underlying Profit and EPS Growth
Underlying profit before tax (H1 FY26) was $1.46 billion, up 5% year-on-year. Underlying earnings per share were $0.68, up 7% versus the prior comparable half.
Negative Updates
Group International Underperformance
Group International (ex Jetstar Asia/Japan) underlying EBIT was down 6% year-on-year, driven by cost escalations (higher engineering, operational wages and training costs for new aircraft). International capacity rose 3%, but costs pressured margins.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying Profit and EPS Growth
Underlying profit before tax (H1 FY26) was $1.46 billion, up 5% year-on-year. Underlying earnings per share were $0.68, up 7% versus the prior comparable half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Group RASK is expected to increase ~3% versus last year (Group International RASK +1% to +3%), entry‑into‑service and fleet transition costs are expected to rise by ~$20m versus H2‑FY25, and the gross impact of Same Job Same Pay for FY26 is now ~ $95m (≈$15m higher versus H2‑FY25) to be mitigated over time; Qantas Loyalty is guided to grow underlying EBIT by 10–12% for FY26 and net freight revenue in H2‑FY26 is expected to be in line with H2‑FY25. Capital guidance is net CapEx $4.1–4.3bn for FY26 and $5.1–5.4bn for FY27 (H1 net CapEx $1.8bn; H1 fleet/other investment $1.8bn, 18 aircraft added, 9 new), net debt closed the half at $5.6bn (bottom of FY26 target range $5.6–7.0bn), and the Board approved an interim shareholder distribution of up to $450m (fully franked base dividend $300m, +$50m, plus an on‑market buyback up to $150m).Qantas Airways Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.41B | 23.82B | 21.62B | 19.52B | 8.70B | 5.38B |
| Gross Profit | 6.61B | 7.95B | 11.46B | 10.97B | 4.52B | -991.00M |
| EBITDA | 4.28B | 4.12B | 3.90B | 4.60B | 945.00M | 53.00M |
| Net Income | 1.61B | 1.60B | 1.25B | 1.75B | -860.00M | -1.69B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 23.89B | 23.36B | 20.56B | 20.35B | 19.65B | 17.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.86B | 2.21B | 1.98B | 3.17B | 3.34B | 2.22B |
| Total Debt | 9.44B | 7.96B | 6.59B | 6.73B | 7.23B | 8.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.55B | 22.57B | 20.27B | 20.34B | 19.84B | 17.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.34B | 778.00M | 289.00M | 5.00M | -197.00M | 440.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -466.00M | 335.00M | 680.00M | 2.49B | 1.75B | -1.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.87B | 4.25B | 3.35B | 5.05B | 2.65B | -407.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.10B | -3.81B | -2.89B | -2.59B | -225.00M | -701.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -179.00M | 42.00M | -2.01B | -2.63B | -1.31B | -181.00M |
Qantas Airways Limited Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.67
Price Trends
9.41
Negative
9.58
Negative
10.07
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.27
Negative
46.96
Neutral
51.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:QAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.53, below the 50-day MA of 9.41, and below the 200-day MA of 10.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:QAN.
Qantas Airways Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$6.77B | 6.76 | 7.42% | 4.29% | 3.01% | -23.84% | |
69 Neutral | AU$1.05B | 8.90 | 6.99% | 4.06% | 9.52% | -8.76% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | AU$13.03B | 4.23 | 151.46% | 4.90% | 8.29% | 38.28% | |
58 Neutral | AU$8.67B | 9.81 | 7.13% | 2.07% | 28.47% | -50.19% | |
56 Neutral | AU$91.00M | -0.47 | -18.72% | 2.40% | 19.82% | -5.32% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
8.67
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5.94%
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Qantas Airways Limited Corporate Events
Qantas to Pay $105 Million to Settle Covid Flight Credit Class Action
Mar 12, 2026
Qantas Airways has agreed to settle a class action over flight credits issued during the Covid period, resolving allegations that it breached contractual refund obligations for flights scheduled between January 2020 and November 2022 that were can...
Qantas Updates NZD Equivalent for Interim Dividend Payment
Mar 11, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has updated its previously announced dividend details for its ordinary fully paid shares, revising the New Zealand dollar total equivalent amount per share. The dividend relates to the six-month period ending 31 December 202...
Qantas Director Dion Weisler Increases Indirect Equity Stake via Share Plan
Mar 6, 2026
Qantas Airways has disclosed a change in the indirect securities interests of non-executive director Dion Weisler, reflecting additional investment via personal and board-related share arrangements. Weisler, whose existing 20,000 Qantas shares wer...
Qantas director Nora Scheinkestel increases indirect shareholding
Mar 6, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of non-executive director Dr Nora Lia Scheinkestel, in line with Australian Securities Exchange listing rules. The notification reflects her indirect shareholding through a superannuat...
Qantas Updates Director Belinda Hutchinson’s Equity Holdings Under Fee Sacrifice Plan
Mar 6, 2026
Qantas Airways has reported changes to the shareholdings of non-executive director Belinda Jane Hutchinson under the Qantas Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Share Plan. The adjustments involve automatic conversion of previously granted rights ...
Qantas Updates Director John Mullen’s Equity Holdings Under Fee Sacrifice Plan
Mar 6, 2026
Qantas Airways has disclosed a change in the interests of non-executive director John Patrick Mullen, reflecting adjustments under the company’s Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Share Plan. The update outlines the conversion of previousl...
Qantas Issues New Unquoted NED Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Mar 6, 2026
Qantas Airways has notified the market of the issue of 26,741 unquoted securities designated as NED Rights, effective 6 March 2026, under an employee incentive scheme. The new rights, which will not be quoted on the ASX, reflect ongoing use of equ...
Qantas Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Mar 6, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has notified the market of the issue of 11,365 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The shares, issued on 27 February 2026, represent a small...
Qantas Appoints Alison Watkins to Board, Discloses Indirect Shareholding
Mar 6, 2026
Qantas Airways has announced the appointment of Alison Mary Watkins as a director effective 2 March 2026, reflecting ongoing renewal and strengthening of its board. The company disclosed that Watkins holds an indirect interest in 24,000 Qantas ord...
Qantas Releases HY26 Investor Presentations to Market
Feb 25, 2026
Qantas Airways has released its investor presentations for the first half of the 2026 financial year, providing the market with detailed materials on the group’s HY26 results. The documents, lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange and...
Qantas Launches New On‑Market Share Buy‑Back Program
Feb 25, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has announced a new on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under the code QAN. The program signals ongoing capital management by the airline, potentially supporting earnings per share and shar...
Qantas Declares Interim Dividend of AUD 0.198 per Share
Feb 25, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has announced an interim dividend of AUD 0.198 per ordinary fully paid share, relating to the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 10 March 2026, with a record date of 11 March 2026 an...
Qantas Files Half-Year 2025 Interim Financial Report with ASX
Feb 25, 2026
Qantas Airways has lodged its Appendix 4D and consolidated interim financial report for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 with the Australian Securities Exchange. The filing formalises the airline group’s latest half-year financial result...
Qantas to Exit Jetstar Japan in Shift to Japanese-Led Ownership
Feb 3, 2026
Qantas Airways and Japan Airlines have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to transition low-cost carrier Jetstar Japan to a new Japanese capital-led ownership structure, under which Qantas plans to divest its 33.32% minority stake. P...
Qantas Announces Lapse of 17,548 Performance Rights After Conditions Not Met
Jan 13, 2026
Qantas Airways Limited has notified the Australian Securities Exchange of the cessation of 17,548 performance rights, which lapsed on 31 December 2025 because the specified conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.