tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Qantas Airways Limited (AU:QAN)
ASX:QAN

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
292 Followers

Top Page

AU:QAN

Qantas Airways Limited

(Sydney:QAN)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.00
▲(0.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/30/25
Qantas Airways' stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and valuation. While revenue growth and net profit margins are positive, high leverage and declining cash flow pose risks. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, but the stock's valuation and dividend yield offer some appeal.
Positive Factors
Revenue & EPS Growth
Sustained top-line growth and strong EPS expansion indicate demand recovery and improving unit economics. Over the next 2-6 months this supports cash generation resilience, better margin conversion if cost pressures moderate, and provides runway to reinvest in network and service improvements.
Diversified Business Lines
A multi-brand model plus loyalty and freight lines reduces revenue cyclicality and concentrates value capture. Loyalty partnerships and freight provide recurring, less cyclical revenue and margin diversification, helping stabilize earnings across business cycles and supporting structural resilience.
Improving Operating Cash Flow
Rising operating cash flow signals operational recovery and better cash conversion from core activities. Even with weak free cash flow, stronger OCF improves near-term liquidity, funds working capital and maintenance capex, and reduces reliance on external financing if the trend continues.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high leverage materially restricts financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to interest rate moves or earnings shocks. Over months this limits capacity for strategic investment or weathering demand slowdowns, and raises refinancing and covenant risk for the group.
Sharp Free Cash Flow Decline
A pronounced drop in free cash flow dramatically reduces capacity to pay down debt, invest, or return capital. Persistently weak FCF forces reliance on external funding or asset sales, impeding balance-sheet repair and constraining strategic options over the medium term.
Margin Compression
Substantial deterioration in gross and operating margins points to rising unit costs or adverse mix shifts. Lower margins reduce earnings resilience and cash conversion, making profitability more sensitive to fuel, labor, and capacity pressures unless structural cost or pricing actions are sustained.

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Qantas Airways Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionQantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments. It offers passenger flying, and air cargo and express freight services; and customer loyalty recognition programs. As of June 30, 2022, the company operated a fleet of 322 aircraft under the Qantas and Jetstar brands. Qantas Airways Limited was founded in 1920 and is based in Mascot, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyQantas generates revenue primarily through the sale of passenger tickets for both international and domestic flights, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. Additionally, the company earns revenue from freight and cargo services, which have become increasingly important in its overall business model. Qantas also operates ancillary services including in-flight sales, baggage fees, and lounge access fees. The Qantas Frequent Flyer program is another key revenue stream, as it allows the airline to earn money through partnerships with various businesses, including hotels, car rental services, and retailers, by selling points and offering co-branded credit cards. Furthermore, strategic partnerships and alliances with other airlines enhance Qantas's market reach and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall profitability.

Qantas Airways Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2024
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, particularly in the Jetstar and Loyalty segments, along with significant investment in fleet renewal. However, challenges remain in Qantas International earnings and cost management. Overall, the positive aspects of growth and operational improvements outweigh the negatives.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Qantas announced an underlying profit of $2.08 billion for FY 2024, with an underlying EPS of $0.88 per share. Statutory profit after tax was $1.25 billion.
Jetstar Record Results
Jetstar reported an underlying EBIT of $497 million, up 23% from the prior year, driven by strong demand for low-fare travel and the introduction of new A321LRs.
Qantas Loyalty Growth
Qantas Loyalty delivered an underlying EBIT of $511 million, with total points earned and redeemed growing at double-digit rates. Active membership increased by 19%.
Fleet Renewal and Investment
Qantas is on track to receive over 40 new aircraft in the next two years. The group invested $3.1 billion in CapEx in FY 2024.
Operational Improvements
The group saw an increase in on-time performance and NPS, with Qantas Domestic reporting a 24-point jump in NPS.
Negative Updates
Decline in Qantas International Earnings
Qantas International, including freight, recorded an underlying EBIT of $556 million, with declines driven by reduced freight yields and increased market capacity.
Challenges in Cost Management
The group faced increased costs due to customer investments, inefficiencies from delayed fleet exits, and legal provisions.
Impact of ACCC Settlement and Legal Provisions
Statutory profit was impacted by one-off costs from the ACCC settlement and legal provisions related to ground handling.
Company Guidance
In the Qantas Airways Q4 2024 earnings call, the company reported a strong financial performance, highlighted by an underlying profit of $2.08 billion and an underlying EPS of $0.88 per share. The statutory profit after tax was $1.25 billion, illustrating a decline due to factors such as the ACCC settlement and legal provisions. The group's operating margin stood at 10.4%, maintaining its position as one of the strongest globally in the airline industry. Net debt was reported at $4.1 billion, at the lower end of the group's target range, and operating cash flow was robust at $3.4 billion. The company outlined a $3.1 billion investment in CapEx across fleet and projects, with 16 new aircraft joining the fleet. Jetstar achieved a record underlying EBIT of $497 million, up 23% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for low-fare travel and the introduction of new A321LR aircraft. Qantas Domestic recorded an underlying EBIT of $1.06 billion, while Qantas International, including freight, reported an underlying EBIT of $556 million. The group also announced a new $400 million share buyback and plans to reinstate a fully franked base dividend in the second half, pending board approval.

Qantas Airways Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Qantas Airways shows revenue growth and improved net profit margins, indicating recovery. However, high leverage and declining free cash flow present significant financial risks. Operational efficiency needs improvement.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Qantas Airways has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 3.85% in the latest year, indicating a recovery trend. The gross profit margin has decreased from 53.01% to 33.36%, which suggests increased cost pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 6.74%, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 10.23, indicating significant leverage, which poses a financial risk. The return on equity is low at 2.06%, suggesting limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is weak, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Operating cash flow has improved, but free cash flow has decreased significantly by 76.51%, highlighting cash management challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.33, while the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.08, indicating limited cash generation relative to profits.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue24.41B23.82B21.62B19.52B8.70B5.38B
Gross Profit6.61B7.95B11.46B10.97B4.52B-991.00M
EBITDA4.28B4.12B3.90B4.60B945.00M53.00M
Net Income1.61B1.60B1.25B1.75B-860.00M-1.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets23.89B23.36B20.56B20.35B19.65B17.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.86B2.21B1.98B3.17B3.34B2.22B
Total Debt9.44B7.96B6.59B6.73B7.23B8.23B
Total Liabilities22.55B22.57B20.27B20.34B19.84B17.36B
Stockholders Equity1.34B778.00M289.00M5.00M-197.00M440.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-466.00M335.00M680.00M2.49B1.75B-1.15B
Operating Cash Flow3.87B4.25B3.35B5.05B2.65B-407.00M
Investing Cash Flow-4.10B-3.81B-2.89B-2.59B-225.00M-701.00M
Financing Cash Flow-179.00M42.00M-2.01B-2.63B-1.31B-181.00M

Qantas Airways Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.99
Price Trends
50DMA
10.27
Negative
100DMA
10.20
Negative
200DMA
10.46
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.23
Positive
RSI
29.23
Positive
STOCH
13.52
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:QAN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.22, below the 50-day MA of 10.27, and below the 200-day MA of 10.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.23 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:QAN.

Qantas Airways Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
56
Neutral
AU$102.27M-0.4713.04%2.40%19.82%-5.32%
55
Neutral
AU$13.51B4.23296.72%4.90%8.29%38.28%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
8.99
-0.50
-5.29%
AU:AQZ
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
0.63
-1.96
-75.87%

Qantas Airways Limited Corporate Events

Qantas Director Dion Weisler Increases Indirect Equity Stake via Share Plan
Mar 6, 2026

Qantas Airways has disclosed a change in the indirect securities interests of non-executive director Dion Weisler, reflecting additional investment via personal and board-related share arrangements. Weisler, whose existing 20,000 Qantas shares were held through family vehicle Dish Nominees Pty Ltd, increased his holding through an on-market purchase and participation in the company’s Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Share Plan.

Following these transactions, Weisler now holds 30,750 ordinary shares indirectly and has been granted 12,490 rights under the NED Share Plan, which converts foregone director fees into equity. The new rights are scheduled to convert into shares after the blackout period following Qantas’ FY26 results, underscoring board alignment with shareholder interests through greater equity-based remuneration and ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas director Nora Scheinkestel increases indirect shareholding
Mar 6, 2026

Qantas Airways Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of non-executive director Dr Nora Lia Scheinkestel, in line with Australian Securities Exchange listing rules. The notification reflects her indirect shareholding through a superannuation vehicle.

Dr Scheinkestel’s superannuation fund acquired 5,015 Qantas ordinary shares via an on-market trade at $9.86 per share, increasing its holding to 57,882 shares, while her direct holding remains at 9,058 shares. The transaction did not occur during a closed trading period, suggesting routine portfolio management rather than a time-sensitive strategic move, but it modestly increases board-aligned equity exposure in the airline.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Updates Director Belinda Hutchinson’s Equity Holdings Under Fee Sacrifice Plan
Mar 6, 2026

Qantas Airways has reported changes to the shareholdings of non-executive director Belinda Jane Hutchinson under the Qantas Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Share Plan. The adjustments involve automatic conversion of previously granted rights into restricted ordinary shares, a new grant of rights, and the release of restricted shares from trust to direct ownership.

Following these transactions, Hutchinson’s holdings now comprise a revised mix of rights under the plan and both indirectly held and directly held ordinary shares. The movements reflect ongoing use of equity-based fee sacrifice arrangements to align director remuneration with shareholder interests, without any on-market trades or disposals reported in this notice.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Updates Director John Mullen’s Equity Holdings Under Fee Sacrifice Plan
Mar 6, 2026

Qantas Airways has disclosed a change in the interests of non-executive director John Patrick Mullen, reflecting adjustments under the company’s Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Share Plan. The update outlines the conversion of previously granted rights into restricted ordinary shares and a new grant of rights, both held via an employee share plan trustee and a self-managed super fund.

Following these transactions, Mullen’s holdings now comprise increased ordinary shares and a refreshed pool of rights under the director share plan, signalling continued equity-based alignment between board compensation and shareholder outcomes. The changes, driven by automatic plan mechanics and fee sacrifice valuation tied to recent share price performance, modestly deepen the director’s financial exposure to Qantas’s future fortunes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Issues New Unquoted NED Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Mar 6, 2026

Qantas Airways has notified the market of the issue of 26,741 unquoted securities designated as NED Rights, effective 6 March 2026, under an employee incentive scheme. The new rights, which will not be quoted on the ASX, reflect ongoing use of equity-based compensation for non-executive directors, signaling continued alignment of board remuneration with shareholder interests and the airline’s long-term performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Mar 6, 2026

Qantas Airways Limited has notified the market of the issue of 11,365 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The shares, issued on 27 February 2026, represent a small but formal increase in the company’s listed equity base, reflecting the exercise of employee or investor incentives and the routine dilution that accompanies such conversions.

The transaction highlights ongoing utilisation of Qantas’s equity-based instruments, which are commonly used to align management and staff interests with shareholder value. While immaterial in scale relative to Qantas’s overall capital structure, the issuance underscores standard capital management and compliance with ASX disclosure requirements that keep investors informed of incremental changes in share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Appoints Alison Watkins to Board, Discloses Indirect Shareholding
Mar 6, 2026

Qantas Airways has announced the appointment of Alison Mary Watkins as a director effective 2 March 2026, reflecting ongoing renewal and strengthening of its board. The company disclosed that Watkins holds an indirect interest in 24,000 Qantas ordinary shares via the RJ & AM Watkins Superannuation Fund, while holding no shares directly or interests in relevant contracts, providing transparency on her financial exposure to the airline for investors and regulators.

The appointment underscores Qantas’ compliance with ASX listing rules on director interest disclosures and offers stakeholders clearer insight into the new director’s alignment with shareholder interests. By detailing Watkins’ indirect shareholding structure and confirming the absence of related contractual interests, Qantas reinforces governance standards and aims to maintain market confidence in its board oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Releases HY26 Investor Presentations to Market
Feb 25, 2026

Qantas Airways has released its investor presentations for the first half of the 2026 financial year, providing the market with detailed materials on the group’s HY26 results. The documents, lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange and accompanied by a supplementary presentation, are intended to brief investors on the airline’s latest financial and operational performance and signal ongoing engagement with capital markets stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Launches New On‑Market Share Buy‑Back Program
Feb 25, 2026

Qantas Airways Limited has announced a new on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under the code QAN. The program signals ongoing capital management by the airline, potentially supporting earnings per share and shareholder returns by reducing the number of shares on issue, and may reflect management’s confidence in the company’s financial position and outlook.

Details in the filing confirm that the buy-back will be executed through on-market purchases of QAN securities, rather than via an off-market or tender structure. While the announcement does not specify the total size or timing of the buy-back, the move adds to Qantas’ toolkit for balancing investment needs with capital returns, which is closely watched by investors given the sector’s cyclical nature and sensitivity to demand and cost conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Declares Interim Dividend of AUD 0.198 per Share
Feb 25, 2026

Qantas Airways Limited has announced an interim dividend of AUD 0.198 per ordinary fully paid share, relating to the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 10 March 2026, with a record date of 11 March 2026 and payment scheduled for 15 April 2026, signalling a capital return to shareholders that may reflect management’s confidence in recent financial performance and cash generation.

The dividend timetable provides clarity for investors on eligibility and expected cash flows, which can support valuation models and income planning for institutional and retail holders. This distribution also reinforces Qantas’s positioning as a mature, cash-generative carrier returning funds to shareholders, a relevant signal within the capital-intensive airline sector where payout policies are closely watched by the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Files Half-Year 2025 Interim Financial Report with ASX
Feb 25, 2026

Qantas Airways has lodged its Appendix 4D and consolidated interim financial report for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 with the Australian Securities Exchange. The filing formalises the airline group’s latest half-year financial results and provides investors and regulators with updated insight into its performance and position at a time of close scrutiny on the aviation sector.

The documents, authorised for release by the Qantas board, mark the company’s compliance with interim reporting obligations and will inform market assessments of its strategy and operational trajectory. Publication of these results is likely to influence stakeholder views on Qantas’s recovery path, balance sheet strength and competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas to Exit Jetstar Japan in Shift to Japanese-Led Ownership
Feb 3, 2026

Qantas Airways and Japan Airlines have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to transition low-cost carrier Jetstar Japan to a new Japanese capital-led ownership structure, under which Qantas plans to divest its 33.32% minority stake. Pending final agreement and regulatory approvals, the deal is expected to be agreed in July 2026 and completed by June 2027, positioning Jetstar Japan for its next growth phase in its home market while enabling the Qantas Group to concentrate capital investment on its core Qantas and Jetstar operations in Australia, with no changes to current shareholding or governance until completion and no impact on existing Australia–Japan services or codeshare arrangements with JAL.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Qantas Announces Lapse of 17,548 Performance Rights After Conditions Not Met
Jan 13, 2026

Qantas Airways Limited has notified the Australian Securities Exchange of the cessation of 17,548 performance rights, which lapsed on 31 December 2025 because the specified conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse of these conditional rights reduces the company’s pool of potential equity-based remuneration, indicating that certain performance hurdles for management or staff were not achieved and slightly altering Qantas’s issued capital structure, with implications for incentive alignment and future share-based compensation plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:QAN) stock is a Buy with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Qantas Airways Limited stock, see the AU:QAN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025