Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$14.67B
• Dividend Yield: 5.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 8.29%
• EPS Growth: 38.28%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 1,513,199,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,020,797
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,805,006
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 49.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.05
• Price Target Upside: 22.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$25.69B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$10.50 ▲(6.71% Upside)

Qantas Airways' stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and valuation. While revenue growth and net profit margins are positive, high leverage and declining cash flow pose risks. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, but the stock's valuation and dividend yield offer some appeal.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The positive revenue growth rate of 3.85% indicates a recovery trend, suggesting that Qantas is effectively expanding its market reach and product adoption, which is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Loyalty Programs

The Qantas Frequent Flyer program enhances customer retention and provides a stable revenue stream through partnerships, contributing to long-term profitability and competitive advantage.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships and alliances improve operational efficiency and market reach, strengthening Qantas's competitive position in the industry and supporting sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks by increasing interest obligations and reducing financial flexibility, potentially impacting Qantas's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Declining Free Cash Flow

The significant decline in free cash flow indicates challenges in cash management, which can limit Qantas's ability to fund operations and invest in future growth, affecting long-term sustainability.

Operational Efficiency

Decreased gross profit margins reflect rising cost pressures and operational inefficiencies, which can erode profitability and hinder Qantas's ability to maintain competitive pricing and service levels.

Qantas Airways Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) is the flag carrier of Australia and one of the world's leading airlines, operating both international and domestic passenger services. Founded in 1920, Qantas operates a comprehensive network that connects Australia to major global destinations, as well as providing extensive domestic routes across the country. The company also engages in freight services and offers loyalty programs, which enhance customer retention and provide additional revenue streams. Qantas is known for its high safety standards and has a strong brand presence in the aviation industry.

How the Company Makes Money

Qantas generates revenue primarily through the sale of passenger tickets for both international and domestic flights, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. Additionally, the company earns revenue from freight and cargo services, which have become increasingly important in its overall business model. Qantas also operates ancillary services including in-flight sales, baggage fees, and lounge access fees. The Qantas Frequent Flyer program is another key revenue stream, as it allows the airline to earn money through partnerships with various businesses, including hotels, car rental services, and retailers, by selling points and offering co-branded credit cards. Furthermore, strategic partnerships and alliances with other airlines enhance Qantas's market reach and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall profitability.

Qantas Airways Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Qantas Airways shows revenue growth and improved net profit margins, indicating recovery. However, high leverage and declining free cash flow present significant financial risks. Operational efficiency needs improvement.

Income Statement

Qantas Airways has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 3.85% in the latest year, indicating a recovery trend. The gross profit margin has decreased from 53.01% to 33.36%, which suggests increased cost pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 6.74%, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 10.23, indicating significant leverage, which poses a financial risk. The return on equity is low at 2.06%, suggesting limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is weak, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has improved, but free cash flow has decreased significantly by 76.51%, highlighting cash management challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.33, while the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.08, indicating limited cash generation relative to profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	23.65B	23.82B	21.62B	19.52B	8.70B	5.38B
Gross Profit	7.95B	7.95B	11.46B	10.97B	4.52B	-991.00M
EBITDA	4.12B	4.12B	3.90B	4.60B	945.00M	53.00M
Net Income	1.60B	1.60B	1.25B	1.75B	-860.00M	-1.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.36B	23.36B	20.56B	20.35B	19.65B	17.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.21B	2.21B	1.98B	3.17B	3.34B	2.22B
Total Debt	7.96B	7.96B	6.59B	6.73B	7.23B	8.23B
Total Liabilities	22.57B	22.57B	20.27B	20.34B	19.84B	17.36B
Stockholders Equity	778.00M	778.00M	289.00M	5.00M	-197.00M	440.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	335.00M	335.00M	680.00M	2.49B	1.75B	-1.15B
Operating Cash Flow	4.25B	4.25B	3.35B	5.05B	2.65B	-407.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.70B	-3.81B	-2.89B	-2.59B	-225.00M	-701.00M
Financing Cash Flow	42.00M	42.00M	-2.01B	-2.63B	-1.31B	-181.00M

Qantas Airways Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:QAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.71, below the 50-day MA of 10.17, and below the 200-day MA of 10.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:QAN.

Qantas Airways Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AQZ	62 Neutral	AU$407.40M	7.10	13.04%	2.48%	19.82%	-5.32%
QAN	55 Neutral	AU$14.67B	9.28	296.72%	5.16%	8.29%	38.28%

Qantas Airways Limited Corporate Events

Qantas Announces Changes in Director’s Incentive Plans

Qantas Airways Limited has announced changes in the director’s interests, specifically regarding Vanessa Judith Hudson’s participation in the company’s incentive plans. Hudson is involved in the Short Term Incentive Plan (STIP) for the 2025/26 performance period and the Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for 2026-2028. These plans are designed to align executive performance with company goals, with potential awards in cash and Qantas shares. The announcement reflects Qantas’s commitment to incentivizing its leadership to achieve strategic objectives, which could impact the company’s operational and financial performance positively.

Qantas Issues New Performance Rights to Employees

Qantas Airways Limited announced the issuance of 2,139,500 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to motivate and retain its workforce, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder confidence.

Qantas Airways Passes All Resolutions at 2025 AGM

Qantas Airways Limited held its 2025 Annual General Meeting where all proposed resolutions were passed by a significant majority through a poll. The resolutions included the re-election of directors and participation of the CEO in the Long Term Incentive Plan, reflecting strong shareholder support and confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

Qantas Reports Strong Performance and Strategic Growth at 2025 AGM

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Qantas Airways Limited reported strong financial performance, driven by increased demand for travel and strategic investments in fleet and customer service. The company highlighted its dual-brand strategy with Qantas and Jetstar, which continues to provide value for both premium and low-cost travelers. Qantas saw a return to near pre-COVID levels of business travel and increased international capacity, while Jetstar expanded its reach with new international routes and affordable travel options. Qantas Loyalty also performed well, with enhancements leading to increased member interaction and new partnerships. The company is on track for another successful half, with strong leisure demand and growing corporate travel.

Qantas Appoints Alison Watkins to Board, Strengthening Leadership

Qantas Group has announced the appointment of Alison Watkins as an independent Non-Executive Director, enhancing the board’s expertise with her extensive experience across various industries. This strategic move is expected to strengthen Qantas’s leadership at a time of significant opportunity, potentially impacting the airline’s operations and market positioning positively.

Qantas Reports Strong Trading Conditions Amidst Capacity and Cost Challenges

Qantas Airways Limited has announced a market update indicating strong trading conditions, with a 3% increase in domestic unit revenue expected in the first half of 2026. International unit revenue is also projected to grow by 2-3%, despite capacity adjustments due to A380 fleet service timing. The company is managing fuel price volatility and carbon compliance costs, with an anticipated fuel cost of $2.62 billion for the first half of 2026. The wind down of Jetstar Asia is progressing, with a $30 million EBIT loss expected, while Qantas Loyalty is on track for significant EBIT growth.

Qantas Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting

Qantas Airways Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, providing necessary documents such as the Voting Form, Question Form, Virtual Meeting Online Guide, and a Letter to Shareholders. This announcement is a routine part of corporate governance, ensuring transparency and engagement with shareholders, which could impact investor confidence and stakeholder relations.

Qantas Updates Dividend Distribution Details for 2025

Qantas Airways Limited has updated its previous announcement regarding the dividend distribution for its ordinary fully paid shares, specifically adjusting the New Zealand Dollar currency equivalent amount per share. This update pertains to the dividend for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025, with the record date set for September 17, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on September 16, 2025. This announcement reflects Qantas’ ongoing financial management and shareholder engagement strategy.