Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AU:AQZ)
ASX:AQZ
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Alliance Aviation Services Limited
(Sydney:AQZ)
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Select Model
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.57
â–Ľ(-54.27% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid revenue growth and operating margins, offset by weak and deteriorating free cash flow and higher leverage. Technicals are a major drag due to the price trading below all key moving averages with negative MACD, while valuation is mixed with a supportive dividend but a negative P/E limiting confidence.
Positive Factors
Contracted revenue model
Alliance's core model of multi-year contract flying for resources, corporate and government clients creates durable revenue visibility and higher utilization. Long-term availability payments and bundled services raise switching costs, smoothing demand and supporting steady fleet deployment and margins over months.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow
A large decline in free cash flow and a negative FCF-to-net-income ratio show poor cash conversion despite accounting profits. This limits capacity to fund maintenance capex, service debt or sustain dividends without external financing, reducing financial flexibility over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted revenue model
Alliance's core model of multi-year contract flying for resources, corporate and government clients creates durable revenue visibility and higher utilization. Long-term availability payments and bundled services raise switching costs, smoothing demand and supporting steady fleet deployment and margins over months.
Read all positive factors
Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$90.19M
Dividend Yield2.4%
Average Volume (3M)277.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth19.82%
EPS Growth-5.32%
CountryAU
Employees1,430
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.66
Shares Outstanding161,060,850
10 Day Avg. Volume596,779
30 Day Avg. Volume277,825
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.40
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.56
P/FCF Ratio-6.04
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.80Price Target Upside-35.22% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$812.50M
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services to the mining, energy, tourism, and government sectors in Australia and internationally. The company also offers specialized aviation services, including a...
How the Company Makes Money
Alliance Aviation Services makes money primarily by providing aviation capacity and flight services under contract and charter arrangements rather than relying solely on public ticket sales. Key revenue streams include: (1) Contract flying (often ...
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 787.12M | 760.87M | 637.19M | 506.42M | 365.45M | 307.28M |
| Gross Profit | 89.59M | 493.29M | 192.76M | 75.81M | 23.42M | 60.46M |
| EBITDA | 169.83M | 205.74M | 177.53M | 122.27M | 47.61M | 87.81M |
| Net Income | -77.35M | 57.32M | 60.45M | 36.46M | -5.21M | 33.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.08B | 1.21B | 998.79M | 779.78M | 666.49M | 605.73M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.43M | 96.49M | 31.23M | 22.32M | 20.89M | 36.22M |
| Total Debt | 562.23M | 513.47M | 366.84M | 263.37M | 219.50M | 185.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 718.22M | 736.57M | 588.05M | 430.01M | 353.04M | 287.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 357.87M | 468.54M | 410.74M | 349.77M | 313.45M | 318.14M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -664.00K | -70.04M | -90.41M | -56.06M | -46.86M | -165.88M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 114.97M | 105.64M | 24.74M | 40.88M | 52.45M | 39.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -115.62M | -175.67M | -115.09M | -81.91M | -99.31M | -205.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 39.48M | 135.28M | 99.26M | 42.45M | 31.53M | 103.30M |
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
1.24
Price Trends
0.79
Negative
1.01
Negative
1.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
36.12
Neutral
26.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AQZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.60, above the 50-day MA of 0.79, and below the 200-day MA of 1.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AQZ.
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
AU:AQZ
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
0.62
-1.81
-74.49%
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
9.29
1.64
21.44%
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Corporate Events
Alliance Aviation downplays fuel price impact, reaffirms FY26 guidance
Mar 25, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services said recent volatility in jet fuel prices is having little direct effect on its operations because fuel costs are largely passed through to customers under wet lease arrangements and contract flying fuel re-pricing mecha...
Alliance Aviation Director Increases Indirect Shareholding via On‑Market Purchase
Mar 15, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director James Jackson, who increased his indirect interest in the company through an on‑market trade. Jackson, via Federal Pacific Holdings Pty Ltd, acquired 5...
Alliance Aviation Director Simon Lange Updates Indirect Shareholding
Mar 12, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services disclosed a change in director Simon Lange’s indirect shareholding following on-market trades executed through Merino Peaks Pty Ltd, of which he is a director. Lange’s indirect interest shifted from 60,000 to...
Alliance Aviation Director Mark Stanton Increases Indirect Shareholding
Mar 12, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Mark Stanton, who increased his indirect interest in the company through an on-market purchase. Stanton acquired 40,000 ordinary shares at AUD0.65 per share via Seaw...
Alliance Aviation Director James Jackson Increases Shareholding
Mar 12, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services director James Jackson has increased his stake in the company through an on-market purchase, signalling continued personal investment in the business. Jackson, through Federal Pacific Holdings Pty Ltd, acquired 46,550 or...
S&P Dow Jones Indices Revamps March 2026 All Ordinaries Rebalance
Mar 10, 2026
SP Dow Jones Indices has updated its March 2026 quarterly rebalance decision for the All Ordinaries index, reversing earlier moves involving African Gold Limited and American Rare Earths Limited, and confirming changes effective before trading on ...
Resources Stocks Drive March 2026 S&P/ASX Index Rebalance
Mar 6, 2026
SP Dow Jones Indices has announced the March 2026 quarterly rebalance of the SP/ASX equity indices, triggering shifts across the SP/ASX 20, 50, 100, 200 and 300 benchmarks. The reshuffle reflects changing market capitalisations and sector dynamics...
Alliance Aviation Lapses 58,597 Performance Rights After Unmet Conditions
Mar 6, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has announced the cessation of 58,597 performance rights (AQZAB) after these conditional rights lapsed because their vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 6 March 2026. The ...
Alliance Aviation Swings to Half-Year Loss Despite Revenue Growth
Feb 19, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services reported a 7.9% increase in revenue from ordinary activities to $359.3 million for the half year ended 31 December 2025, but swung to a loss attributable to members of $105.8 million, a 466.6% deterioration compared with...
Alliance Aviation Sets Date for FY26 Half-Year Results and Investor Call
Feb 5, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has scheduled the release of its FY26 half-year financial results for the period ending 31 December 2025 after the close of trading on 19 February 2026 on the ASX announcements platform. The company will follow t...
Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Jan 14, 2026
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has lodged an application with the ASX for the quotation of 33,771 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on 28 August 2025. The additional shares arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.