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Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AU:AQZ)
ASX:AQZ
Australian Market

Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:AQZ

Alliance Aviation Services Limited

(Sydney:AQZ)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
â–²(20.97% Upside)
The overall stock score of 62 reflects a mixed outlook for Alliance Aviation Services Limited. The company's strong valuation metrics suggest potential undervaluation, but this is offset by technical indicators pointing to a bearish trend and financial performance concerns, particularly regarding cash flow management and leverage. Investors should weigh these factors carefully.
Positive Factors
Diversified service lines
Alliance operates complementary aviation businesses—charter, maintenance, ground handling and cargo—serving mining, tourism and government clients. This diversification smooths revenue volatility, spreads operational risk, and supports more stable fleet utilization and contract revenues over months.
Revenue growth and operating efficiency
Recent results show durable top-line expansion and very high gross margins, indicating pricing power or low direct costs in core services. Healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins imply operating leverage that can sustain cash generation through cyclical demand and support reinvestment or fleet upkeep over the medium term.
Solid return on equity
ROE near double digits demonstrates effective use of shareholder capital to generate profits, while an equity ratio around 39% provides a moderate capital buffer. Together these metrics suggest the business can produce shareholder returns and retain capacity for reinvestment if cash conversion improves.
Negative Factors
Increased leverage
Leverage at this level raises interest and refinancing exposure for an asset- and maintenance-heavy aviation services firm. Elevated debt reduces flexibility to fund capex, absorb demand shocks, or pursue growth without adding financing, heightening structural financial risk over the medium term.
Weak free cash flow conversion
A sharp decline in free cash flow and negative FCF-to-net-income means earnings are not converting to cash. That constrains the company’s ability to pay down debt, invest in maintenance or expansion, and sustain dividends without external funding, limiting strategic flexibility over months.
Net margin compression
Despite strong gross margins, a falling net margin signals rising operating or financing costs that erode bottom-line durability. Persisting margin pressure would reduce retained earnings available for deleveraging or capex, weakening the company’s capacity to strengthen its balance sheet over time.

Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services to the mining, energy, tourism, and government sectors in Australia and internationally. The company also offers specialized aviation services, including aircraft wet leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing, and engineering to other airlines and clients. As of June 30, 2022, it operated a fleet of 5 Fokker 50 turboprops aircraft, 13 Fokker 70 jet aircraft, and 24 Fokker 100 jet aircraft, as well as 19 Embraer aircraft. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlliance Aviation Services generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from charter services, where the company offers on-demand flight services to clients across various sectors, including mining and tourism. Additionally, the company provides aircraft maintenance services, which consist of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance for various aircraft types, generating further income. Ground handling services, including baggage handling and ramp services for other airlines, also contribute to revenue. The company may engage in partnerships with mining companies and tourism operators, ensuring a steady demand for its services, which bolsters its financial performance. Furthermore, the company may benefit from cargo transportation services, adding another layer to its revenue model.

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alliance Aviation Services Limited shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but faces challenges with increased leverage and cash flow management. While profitability metrics are solid, the company needs to focus on improving its cash flow position and managing debt levels to ensure long-term financial stability.
Income Statement
Alliance Aviation Services Limited has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 12.85% in the latest year, with a significant improvement in gross profit margin to 64.83%. However, the net profit margin decreased slightly to 7.53%, indicating some pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 14.94% and 27.04% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.10, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity is solid at 12.23%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 38.88%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in reducing debt levels.
Cash Flow
The cash flow situation is challenging, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -60.78%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.66 highlights cash flow management issues that need addressing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue766.83M760.87M637.19M506.42M365.45M307.28M
Gross Profit180.76M493.29M192.76M75.81M23.42M60.46M
EBITDA207.41M205.74M177.53M122.27M47.61M87.81M
Net Income57.32M57.32M60.45M36.46M-5.21M33.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.21B1.21B998.79M779.78M666.49M605.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments96.49M96.49M31.23M22.32M20.89M36.22M
Total Debt513.47M513.47M366.84M263.37M219.50M185.42M
Total Liabilities736.57M736.57M588.05M430.01M353.04M287.59M
Stockholders Equity468.54M468.54M410.74M349.77M313.45M318.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-70.04M-70.04M-90.41M-56.06M-46.86M-165.88M
Operating Cash Flow105.64M105.64M24.74M40.88M52.45M39.80M
Investing Cash Flow-175.67M-175.67M-115.09M-81.91M-99.31M-205.68M
Financing Cash Flow135.28M135.28M99.26M42.45M31.53M103.30M

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.24
Price Trends
50DMA
1.38
Negative
100DMA
1.85
Negative
200DMA
2.19
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Negative
RSI
40.44
Neutral
STOCH
32.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AQZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.23, below the 50-day MA of 1.38, and below the 200-day MA of 2.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AQZ.

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
62
Neutral
AU$196.45M3.3713.04%2.40%19.82%-5.32%
55
Neutral
AU$15.33B9.70296.72%4.90%8.29%38.28%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AQZ
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
1.20
-1.60
-57.14%
AU:QAN
Qantas Airways Limited
10.20
1.78
21.17%

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Corporate Events

Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Jan 14, 2026

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has lodged an application with the ASX for the quotation of 33,771 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on 28 August 2025. The additional shares arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, modestly increasing the company’s listed capital base and reflecting ongoing participation in its equity incentive or funding structures, with limited immediate impact on the broader market given the relatively small volume.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Appoints New Director with Significant Stake
Dec 5, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has announced the appointment of Jason Korman as a new director, effective December 3, 2025. Mr. Korman, who is also an employee and minority shareholder of Viburnum Funds Pty Ltd, indirectly holds a significant interest in the company through Viburnum’s stake in Alliance Aviation. This appointment is likely to influence the company’s strategic direction and may impact its stakeholder relations, given Mr. Korman’s financial ties to a major shareholder.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Appoints Jason Korman as Non-Executive Director
Dec 4, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has appointed Jason Korman as a Non-Executive Director, marking the completion of its Board’s renewal program. Korman brings extensive experience from the private equity sector, having worked with firms like BGH Capital and Argand Partners. His appointment is expected to enhance the Board’s performance and transparency, aiding Alliance in addressing near-term challenges while laying the groundwork for long-term stability and growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Issues Performance Rights to Employees
Nov 28, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced the issuance of 402,326 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions until the restriction period ends, reflecting the company’s commitment to incentivizing its workforce and aligning employee interests with company performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Updates Constitution to Enhance Governance
Nov 28, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has updated its constitution, incorporating amendments approved by shareholders. This update reflects the company’s commitment to maintaining compliance with regulatory standards and enhancing its governance framework. The changes are expected to streamline operations and potentially improve shareholder value, indicating a proactive approach to adapting to market and regulatory demands.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Announces Director’s Interest Change
Nov 28, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Stewart Tully acquiring 50,697 performance rights under the company’s Performance Incentive Scheme. This change reflects the company’s commitment to aligning its leadership’s interests with its performance goals, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Updates AGM Presentation with Key Corrections
Nov 28, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced a correction to its AGM presentation regarding its financial position. The correction includes an update on the number of Embraer aircraft, now stated as 44 instead of 43, and a clarification on net assets, which are $473.3 million. These updates are crucial for stakeholders as they reflect the company’s asset base and fleet size, potentially impacting its market positioning and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Limited AGM Results: All Resolutions Passed
Nov 27, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited held its Annual General Meeting on November 27, 2025, where all resolutions were successfully carried. Key decisions included the adoption of the remuneration report, election of directors, approval of securities issuance under a long-term incentive plan, and an amendment to the company’s constitution. These outcomes reflect strong shareholder support and are likely to impact the company’s governance and strategic direction positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Announces 2025 AGM with Focus on Future Earnings
Nov 27, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, which will take place in Brisbane and be webcast for broader accessibility. The meeting will include a presentation to shareholders, with particular attention to the FY26 earnings guidance, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on future financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Director Increases Shareholding
Nov 11, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Bernard Campbell acquiring an additional 50,000 ordinary fully paid shares through an on-market trade, bringing his total holdings to 107,231 shares. This acquisition reflects a significant increase in Campbell’s stake in the company, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which could positively influence stakeholders’ perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Announces Director Departure and Shareholding Details
Nov 10, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced the cessation of Scott McMillan as a director effective November 7, 2025. McMillan held direct interests in 515,318 ordinary shares and 33,771 performance rights, with additional interests through trusts holding over 3.5 million shares. This change in directorship may influence the company’s governance and strategic direction, impacting stakeholders and potentially altering market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Announces Leadership Transition
Nov 7, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced significant leadership changes with the resignation of founding Managing Director Scott McMillan, who will be succeeded by Stewart Tully. McMillan will remain as a consultant for six months to ensure a smooth transition. Additionally, CFO Andrew Evans will step down, with a recruitment process underway for his replacement. These changes are part of the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain stability and operational excellence, ensuring continuity in its leadership and financial management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Requests Voluntary Suspension Amid Earnings Update
Nov 3, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has requested a voluntary suspension of its securities from the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) due to the need to manage its continuous disclosure obligations. The company anticipates releasing a trading update that will likely show its FY26 earnings to be materially lower than analyst consensus estimates, primarily due to unexpected repairs, maintenance costs, and higher depreciation charges. This suspension will allow Alliance to prepare and verify the financial impact of these expenses before making the announcement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Initiates Trading Halt Pending Update
Oct 31, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities pending the release of a trading update. This halt will remain in place until the company issues an announcement or until normal trading resumes on November 4, 2025. The trading halt indicates a significant forthcoming announcement that could impact the company’s operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Announces 2025 AGM Details
Oct 28, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), scheduled for November 27, 2025, at Ballymore Stadium in Queensland. The AGM will be held as a hybrid meeting, allowing both in-person and online participation, ensuring shareholder engagement. Key agenda items include the consideration of financial and remuneration reports, election of new directors, and approval of securities issuance under the Long-Term Incentive Plan. This meeting is crucial for shareholders to stay informed and involved in the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Appoints Simon Lange to Board, Aiming for Strategic Growth
Oct 15, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has appointed Simon Lange as a Non-Executive Director, enhancing its board with his extensive experience in aviation and capital markets. Lange’s appointment is part of the board’s renewal process aimed at strengthening current operations and exploring new growth opportunities, as Alliance embarks on its next phase of strategic development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Buy with a A$2.58 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Addresses Media Speculation, Upholds Disclosure Obligations
Oct 14, 2025

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has acknowledged media speculation from an article in The Australian but has chosen not to comment on it, affirming its compliance with continuous disclosure obligations. This stance reflects the company’s commitment to maintaining transparency and regulatory adherence, which is crucial for its stakeholders, including investors and clients in the aviation and related sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Buy with a A$2.58 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 28, 2025