Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$96.64M
• Dividend Yield: 2.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 277.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 19.82%
• EPS Growth: -5.32%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,430
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.66
• Shares Outstanding: 161,060,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 596,779
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 277,825
• PEG Ratio: -1.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.56
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.80
• Price Target Upside: -35.22% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$812.50M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.65 ▼(-47.26% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is held back primarily by very weak technicals (price below all major moving averages and bearish MACD) and pressured cash flow (free cash flow growth -60.78%). These are partially offset by solid revenue growth and margins, plus a supportive dividend yield, but leverage and the negative P/E keep the overall profile only moderate.

Positive Factors

Contract-based business model

Alliance’s core model of long-term contract flying and bundled services creates durable revenue visibility and higher customer stickiness versus spot-ticket airlines. For resources and government customers, multi-year contracts reduce demand volatility, support steady utilization and simplify capacity planning over months to years.

Strong revenue growth with high gross margins

Sustained top-line growth combined with a very high gross margin indicates structural pricing power on contracts and efficient control of direct flying costs. High gross margins provide a lasting buffer to absorb fuel or maintenance cost shocks and support reinvestment or contract bidding capacity over the medium term.

Healthy operating margins and returns on equity

Robust EBIT/EBITDA margins and a double-digit ROE demonstrate efficient operations and effective capital deployment. These metrics suggest the business can generate operating cash and returns above peers when utilization is steady, supporting sustainable operations, maintenance capital and potential shareholder distributions.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio above 1 signals materially higher financial leverage for an airline operator, raising refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. In a capital-intensive industry needing periodic fleet investment, elevated leverage limits strategic flexibility and heightens the risk of cash strain if contracts are disrupted.

Weak free cash flow generation

A large decline in free cash flow and negative FCF relative to net income indicate structural cash conversion issues, possibly from capex, working capital or timing. Persistently weak FCF undermines the company’s ability to service debt, fund fleet maintenance/replacement and sustain dividends without external financing.

Earnings volatility / EPS decline

Severe negative EPS growth reflects volatile profitability and possible one-offs or margin pressure. Such earnings instability reduces predictability of future profits, complicates budgeting and weakens investor and lender confidence, prolonging funding costs and constraining strategic investment over the medium term.

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services to the mining, energy, tourism, and government sectors in Australia and internationally. The company also offers specialized aviation services, including aircraft wet leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing, and engineering to other airlines and clients. As of June 30, 2022, it operated a fleet of 5 Fokker 50 turboprops aircraft, 13 Fokker 70 jet aircraft, and 24 Fokker 100 jet aircraft, as well as 19 Embraer aircraft. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Alliance Aviation Services generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from charter services, where the company offers on-demand flight services to clients across various sectors, including mining and tourism. Additionally, the company provides aircraft maintenance services, which consist of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance for various aircraft types, generating further income. Ground handling services, including baggage handling and ramp services for other airlines, also contribute to revenue. The company may engage in partnerships with mining companies and tourism operators, ensuring a steady demand for its services, which bolsters its financial performance. Furthermore, the company may benefit from cargo transportation services, adding another layer to its revenue model.

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (12.85%) and improved gross margin (64.83%) support operating strength, but higher leverage (debt-to-equity 1.10) and weak free cash flow growth (-60.78%) materially reduce the financial quality.

Income Statement

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 12.85% in the latest year, with a significant improvement in gross profit margin to 64.83%. However, the net profit margin decreased slightly to 7.53%, indicating some pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 14.94% and 27.04% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.10, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity is solid at 12.23%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 38.88%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in reducing debt levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow situation is challenging, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -60.78%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.66 highlights cash flow management issues that need addressing.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	787.12M	760.87M	637.19M	506.42M	365.45M	307.28M
Gross Profit	89.59M	493.29M	192.76M	75.81M	23.42M	60.46M
EBITDA	169.83M	205.74M	177.53M	122.27M	47.61M	87.81M
Net Income	-77.35M	57.32M	60.45M	36.46M	-5.21M	33.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.08B	1.21B	998.79M	779.78M	666.49M	605.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.43M	96.49M	31.23M	22.32M	20.89M	36.22M
Total Debt	562.23M	513.47M	366.84M	263.37M	219.50M	185.42M
Total Liabilities	718.22M	736.57M	588.05M	430.01M	353.04M	287.59M
Stockholders Equity	357.87M	468.54M	410.74M	349.77M	313.45M	318.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-664.00K	-70.04M	-90.41M	-56.06M	-46.86M	-165.88M
Operating Cash Flow	114.97M	105.64M	24.74M	40.88M	52.45M	39.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-115.62M	-175.67M	-115.09M	-81.91M	-99.31M	-205.68M
Financing Cash Flow	39.48M	135.28M	99.26M	42.45M	31.53M	103.30M

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AQZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.70, above the 50-day MA of 0.96, and below the 200-day MA of 1.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 22.65 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AQZ.

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AQZ	56 Neutral	AU$96.64M	-0.47	-18.72%	2.40%	19.82%	-5.32%
QAN	55 Neutral	AU$12.87B	4.23	296.72%	4.90%	8.29%	38.28%

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Corporate Events

Alliance Aviation Swings to Half-Year Loss Despite Revenue Growth

Alliance Aviation Services reported a 7.9% increase in revenue from ordinary activities to $359.3 million for the half year ended 31 December 2025, but swung to a loss attributable to members of $105.8 million, a 466.6% deterioration compared with the prior period. The company did not declare an interim dividend, its net tangible asset backing per share fell from $2.70 in June 2025 to $2.22 at December 2025, and its reviewed half-year financial statements received an unqualified audit report, highlighting mounting financial pressure despite top-line growth.

The absence of an interim dividend and the decline in net tangible asset backing suggest a more conservative capital stance as Alliance navigates the impact of its worsening earnings. While rising revenue indicates sustained demand for its aviation services, the sharp reversal into loss underscores operational or cost challenges that may weigh on shareholder returns and could influence market perceptions of its financial resilience in a competitive aviation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$0.99 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Sets Date for FY26 Half-Year Results and Investor Call

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has scheduled the release of its FY26 half-year financial results for the period ending 31 December 2025 after the close of trading on 19 February 2026 on the ASX announcements platform. The company will follow the release with a conference call on 20 February 2026 to discuss the results with investors and stakeholders, underlining its ongoing commitment to financial transparency and engagement with the market as it supports critical services across resources, government and airline customers in Australasia.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has lodged an application with the ASX for the quotation of 33,771 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on 28 August 2025. The additional shares arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, modestly increasing the company’s listed capital base and reflecting ongoing participation in its equity incentive or funding structures, with limited immediate impact on the broader market given the relatively small volume.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Services Appoints New Director with Significant Stake

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has announced the appointment of Jason Korman as a new director, effective December 3, 2025. Mr. Korman, who is also an employee and minority shareholder of Viburnum Funds Pty Ltd, indirectly holds a significant interest in the company through Viburnum’s stake in Alliance Aviation. This appointment is likely to influence the company’s strategic direction and may impact its stakeholder relations, given Mr. Korman’s financial ties to a major shareholder.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.

Alliance Aviation Appoints Jason Korman as Non-Executive Director

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has appointed Jason Korman as a Non-Executive Director, marking the completion of its Board’s renewal program. Korman brings extensive experience from the private equity sector, having worked with firms like BGH Capital and Argand Partners. His appointment is expected to enhance the Board’s performance and transparency, aiding Alliance in addressing near-term challenges while laying the groundwork for long-term stability and growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AQZ) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Aviation Services Limited stock, see the AU:AQZ Stock Forecast page.