Paladin Energy Ltd (AU:PDN)
ASX:PDN
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Paladin Energy Ltd
(Sydney:PDN)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$11.00
▼(-1.26% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and materially negative free cash flow despite a sharp revenue ramp. Offsetting that, technicals remain constructive with a strong multi-month uptrend and neutral momentum, and the earnings call showed solid ramp-up execution, margins, and liquidity with guidance trending toward the upper end. Valuation remains challenged due to ongoing losses and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Operational ramp-up
Consistent quarterly production increases demonstrate operational execution and rising output capacity. A sustained ramp to guide toward the upper end of annual guidance supports predictable revenue streams and improves per-unit economics over the next 2–6 months as commissioning completes.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Persistent free-cash-flow deficits indicate the business is burning cash despite revenue growth, creating reliance on existing cash or external funding to sustain operations and complete ramp activities. Continued negative FCF over several quarters would strain liquidity and constrain strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational ramp-up
Consistent quarterly production increases demonstrate operational execution and rising output capacity. A sustained ramp to guide toward the upper end of annual guidance supports predictable revenue streams and improves per-unit economics over the next 2–6 months as commissioning completes.
Read all positive factors
Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.94B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.58
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-163.65%
CountryAU
Employees307
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryUranium
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding449,358,430
10 Day Avg. Volume3,631,595
30 Day Avg. Volume3,003,582
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)2.06
Price to Sales (P/S)10.52
P/FCF Ratio-35.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$13.38Price Target Upside20.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$317.70M
Paladin Energy Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Paladin Energy Limited develops, explores for, and operates uranium mines in Australia, Canada, and Africa. The company operates through Exploration, Namibia, and Australia segments. Its flagship project is the Langer Heinrich mine located in the ...
How the Company Makes Money
Paladin makes money primarily by producing uranium oxide concentrate (U3O8) and selling it to nuclear fuel cycle customers (e.g., utilities and/or intermediaries) under uranium sales arrangements. Revenue is recognized based on contracted and/or s...
Paladin Energy Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial performance this quarter — with significant production growth (16%), improved recovery (91%), lower unit costs (USD 39.70/lb), robust realized pricing (USD 71.80/lb) and a solid cash position (USD 278M plus a USD 70M undrawn facility). Management balanced these positives with reminders that FY2026 is a ramp-up year, fleet commissioning and mine-plan optimization remain ongoing, and near-term cost and sequencing uncertainty persists. Overall, highlights (robust production, recovery, pricing, margin and liquidity) materially outweigh the manageable ramp-up and timing risks.Positive Updates
Quarterly Production Increase
Langer Heinrich produced 1.23 million pounds of U3O8 in the quarter, a 16% increase versus the prior quarter, reflecting ramp-up momentum.
Negative Updates
Ramp-up Uncertainty and Near-Term Cost Pressure
Management emphasized FY2026 is a ramp-up year; mining activity will increase unit costs next quarter and there remains uncertainty around achieving full-year outperformance until commissioning and optimization of the new fleet are complete.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Production Increase
Langer Heinrich produced 1.23 million pounds of U3O8 in the quarter, a 16% increase versus the prior quarter, reflecting ramp-up momentum.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained FY2026 guidance of 4.0–4.4 million pounds U3O8 and said production is trending toward the upper end, after producing 1.23 million pounds in the December quarter (up 16% QoQ) and delivering 1.43 million pounds of sales at an average realized price of USD 71.80/lb; operational metrics improved with average ore feed grade of 524 ppm and plant recovery at 91% (above the 85–90% target), while unit production cost fell to USD 39.70/lb but is expected to rise next quarter as mining increases (overall cost guidance unchanged). Management reiterated the ramp‑up will complete by the end of FY2026 with full mining operations in FY2027 as the new fleet (currently 49% on site, moving toward ~110% before optimizing to 100%) is commissioned in H1 calendar year, FY2027 guidance will be provided in July, and the company enters the period with USD 278 million of cash and investments, a fully undrawn USD 70 million revolver, inventories around 1.6–1.8 (≈4 months of production), and a trailing‑12‑month TRIF of 2.9% with no serious environmental or radiation incidents.Paladin Energy Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 177.68M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.70M | 2.98M |
| Gross Profit | 4.10M | -7.54M | -6.67M | 7.00K | -3.00M |
| EBITDA | -30.37M | -17.44M | -17.94M | -11.72M | -11.80M |
| Net Income | -44.64M | 81.84M | -10.57M | -26.74M | -43.98M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 621.78M | 473.05M | 699.48M | 481.07M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 89.05M | 48.86M | 126.64M | 258.95M | 30.66M |
| Total Debt | 197.09M | 167.35M | 90.49M | 115.60M | 92.68M |
| Total Liabilities | 324.32M | 223.97M | 137.96M | 178.26M | 152.45M |
| Stockholders Equity | 907.42M | 471.79M | 407.57M | 600.64M | 377.25M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -52.58M | -65.42M | -12.02M | -11.00M | -66.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -3.80M | -48.12M | -9.38M | -9.37M | -64.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 26.60M | -94.65M | -35.79M | 11.96M | -2.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.65M | 65.92M | 85.00K | 157.40M | 1.20M |
Paladin Energy Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
11.14
Price Trends
12.33
Negative
10.63
Positive
9.19
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.44
Positive
45.38
Neutral
52.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.78, below the 50-day MA of 12.33, and above the 200-day MA of 9.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:PDN.
Paladin Energy Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | AU$726.85M | -222.58 | -0.94% | ― | ― | 60.83% | |
58 Neutral | AU$4.94B | -11.66 | -4.87% | ― | ― | -163.65% | |
52 Neutral | AU$10.58B | -23.97 | -17.60% | ― | ― | -305.93% | |
49 Neutral | AU$1.64B | -57.60 | 0.29% | ― | -100.00% | ― | |
43 Neutral | AU$203.06M | -16.35 | -12.34% | ― | ― | -67.12% | |
43 Neutral | AU$1.22B | -24.17 | 4.35% | ― | -100.00% | 98.06% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:PDN
Paladin Energy Ltd
11.00
5.58
102.95%
AU:BKY
Berkeley Energia
0.46
-0.09
-15.74%
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Bannerman Energy
3.50
1.10
45.83%
AU:DYL
Deep Yellow Limited
1.69
0.66
64.39%
AU:ERA
Energy Resources of Australia Class A
―
―
―
AU:NXG
NexGen Energy Ltd. Shs Chess Depository Interests repr 1 shs
16.27
8.50
109.40%
Paladin Energy Ltd Corporate Events
Paladin Energy Issues Extensive Risk and Disclosure Notice for Jefferies Asia Forum Presentation
Mar 16, 2026
Paladin Energy has issued a detailed presentation disclaimer ahead of its appearance at the Jefferies 7th Asia Forum, stressing that the material is informational only and does not constitute an offer, prospectus or investment advice. The company ...
Paladin Energy Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Mar 11, 2026
Paladin Energy Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 335,515 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The securities, which will not be quoted on the ASX, were issued on March 6, 2026, and reflect the company’s ...
Paladin Energy Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Mar 5, 2026
Paladin Energy has applied to the ASX for quotation of 30,000 new fully paid ordinary shares issued on 4 March 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The modest share issuance reflects ongoing use of equity-based compensation but is not of a sca...
Paladin Energy Wins Key Environmental Approval for Canadian Uranium Project
Feb 20, 2026
Paladin Energy has secured ministerial approval of its Environmental Impact Statement for the Patterson Lake South uranium project in Canada’s Athabasca Basin, marking a key regulatory step. The shallow, high‑grade project has passed S...
Paladin Energy Requests Trading Halt Ahead of Key Patterson Lake South Approval
Feb 19, 2026
Paladin Energy has requested an immediate trading halt in its securities on the ASX, with the pause to remain in place until either a forthcoming announcement is released or normal trading resumes on 24 February 2026. The halt is tied to an approv...
Paladin Energy Issues Compliance-Focused December Quarter Presentation With Extensive Risk and Reporting Disclosures
Jan 20, 2026
Paladin Energy has released a December 2025 quarter presentation dated 21 January 2026 that serves primarily as an informational and compliance-focused document rather than an operational or financial update. The presentation reiterates that it is...
Paladin Energy Lifts Uranium Output and Sales as Langer Heinrich Ramp-Up Gains Pace
Jan 20, 2026
Paladin Energy reported a strong December quarter as ramp-up at its Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia delivered a 16% increase in uranium output to 1.23 million pounds U3O8, helped by higher ore grades and strong plant recoveries. Sales nearly tripl...
Paladin Energy Sets Date for December Quarter Results and Investor Call
Jan 13, 2026
Paladin Energy has scheduled the release of its quarterly results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 21 January 2026, with the announcement to be published on both the ASX and SEDAR+ platforms. The company will host an investor conference ca...
Paladin Energy Reports Lapse of 238,658 Performance Rights
Jan 6, 2026
Paladin Energy Ltd has notified the market of the cessation of 238,658 performance rights, which lapsed on 30 December 2025 because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse of these per...
Paladin Energy Issues 954,183 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Dec 30, 2025
Paladin Energy Ltd has issued 954,183 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 30 December 2025. The move underscores the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to align staff incentives with lon...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.