Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$5.94B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.46
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -163.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 307
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Uranium
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 449,328,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,862,979
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,591,644
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.52
• P/FCF Ratio: -35.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$11.77
• Price Target Upside: -15.58% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$13.50 ▼(-3.16% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial conversion (thin margins, net losses, and materially negative free cash flow) despite strong revenue growth and a relatively supportive balance sheet. Technicals show a strong uptrend but are overextended, increasing pullback risk. The earnings call outlook is a positive offset, citing record production, favorable price-cost spread, and strengthened funding, though sales volatility and operational challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Production ramp at Langer Heinrich

Record quarterly production and a 63% QoQ increase in material mined indicate the mine is scaling toward steady-state. A sustained ramp improves per-unit absorption of fixed costs, increases revenue capacity, and materially strengthens the company’s ability to generate operating leverage as volumes normalize over the next 2–6 months.

Favorable unit economics (price > cost)

A ~$25/lb realized margin provides a durable per-unit buffer that can fund margin expansion as production grows. If maintained, this spread supports positive contribution margin, helps service costs and investment in development projects, and reduces sensitivity to moderate price or cost swings.

Strengthened funding and balance sheet flexibility

A $300m equity raise materially boosts liquidity and reduces near-term refinancing risk, giving flexibility to fund the Langer Heinrich ramp and PLS development. Combined with modest leverage metrics, this lowers immediate solvency pressure and supports multi-quarter project execution.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation and negative free cash flow

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow signals that core operations are not yet self-financing. Persistent cash burn forces reliance on external funding, risks dilution or higher financing costs, and constrains the company’s ability to fund sustaining capex and advance development projects without repeated capital raises.

Persistent losses and thin margins

Very thin gross margins and ongoing operating losses leave little room for error versus input cost increases or price weakness. Negative returns and volatility in earnings hinder the build-up of reserves, weaken ROE, and make consistent profitability contingent on sustained higher volumes and durable cost control.

Lumpy and unpredictable sales volumes

Highly variable sale sizes and recent shipping delays create revenue timing and cash-flow volatility, complicating working capital and inventory planning. This structural unpredictability undermines consistent cash conversion and makes multi-quarter forecasting and capital allocation for expansion or PLS development more challenging.

Paladin Energy Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Paladin Energy Limited develops, explores for, and operates uranium mines in Australia, Canada, and Africa. The company operates through Exploration, Namibia, and Australia segments. Its flagship project is the Langer Heinrich mine located in the Namib Desert in Namibia. The company also holds 70% interest in the Michelin project that covers an area of 52,250 hectares located in Labrador, Canada; and 100% interest in the Mount Isa project that consists of six mineral development licenses located in Queensland, Australia. In addition, it holds 100% interest in the Manyingee project comprising three mining licenses and two exploration licenses covering an area of 1,307 hectares located in the north-west of Western Australia; and the Carley Bore project that consists of two contiguous exploration licenses with granted retention status in Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Paladin Resources Ltd and changed its name to Paladin Energy Limited in November 2007. Paladin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Paladin Energy Ltd makes money through the extraction and sale of uranium, which is primarily used as fuel for nuclear power plants. The company's revenue model revolves around mining uranium ore, processing it into uranium oxide concentrate, and selling it to utility companies and other entities involved in nuclear energy production. Key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts with energy companies, spot market sales, and strategic partnerships with other mining and energy firms. Factors contributing to its earnings include uranium market prices, production efficiency, and the operational status of its mining projects.

Paladin Energy Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue ramped sharply in FY2025 (A$177.7m; ~130x YoY), but profitability is still weak with thin gross margin (~2.3%), an operating loss (EBIT margin ~-27.5%), and a net loss (A$-44.6m). Cash flow is the main drag: operating cash flow was slightly negative (A$-3.8m) and free cash flow materially negative (A$-52.6m), indicating ongoing funding/execution risk. The balance sheet is comparatively supportive with modest leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.22) and sizable equity (~A$907m), but rising debt and negative ROE (~-4.9%) keep the overall financial score low.

Income Statement

FY2025 shows a clear ramp in revenue (A$177.7m; ~130x year-over-year), but profitability remains weak: gross margin is thin (~2.3%) and operating losses persist (EBIT margin ~-27.5%), leading to a net loss (A$-44.6m; net margin ~-25%). Prior years show limited/zero revenue and mostly losses (aside from FY2024 net income), indicating earnings are still volatile and not yet supported by stable operating performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks relatively supportive: leverage is modest in FY2025 with debt-to-equity around 0.22 and equity of ~A$907m against total debt of ~A$197m. That said, profitability pressure shows up in returns on equity (FY2025 ROE ~-4.9%), and debt has risen versus FY2023–FY2024, which could matter if losses and cash burn persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weakness. FY2025 operating cash flow is slightly negative (A$-3.8m) and free cash flow is meaningfully negative (A$-52.6m), with a sharp deterioration versus FY2024 (free cash flow growth ~-650%). While reported free cash flow relative to net income is high (driven by net losses), the consistent pattern of negative operating and free cash flow across most years signals ongoing funding needs and execution risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	177.68M	177.68M	0.00	0.00	4.70M	2.98M
Gross Profit	4.10M	4.10M	-7.54M	-6.67M	7.00K	-3.00M
EBITDA	-30.37M	-30.37M	-17.44M	-17.94M	-11.72M	-11.80M
Net Income	-44.64M	-44.64M	81.84M	-10.57M	-26.74M	-43.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	1.13B	621.78M	473.05M	699.48M	481.07M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	89.05M	89.05M	48.86M	126.64M	258.95M	30.66M
Total Debt	197.09M	197.09M	167.35M	90.49M	115.60M	92.68M
Total Liabilities	324.32M	324.32M	223.97M	137.96M	178.26M	152.45M
Stockholders Equity	907.42M	907.42M	471.79M	407.57M	600.64M	377.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.69M	-52.58M	-65.42M	-12.02M	-11.00M	-66.29M
Operating Cash Flow	30.52M	-3.80M	-48.12M	-9.38M	-9.37M	-64.79M
Investing Cash Flow	8.14M	26.60M	-94.65M	-35.79M	11.96M	-2.21M
Financing Cash Flow	30.00M	14.65M	65.92M	85.00K	157.40M	1.20M

Paladin Energy Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.94
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.36, above the 50-day MA of 9.61, and above the 200-day MA of 7.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.30 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:PDN.

Paladin Energy Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DYL	58 Neutral	AU$2.28B	350.00	1.08%	―	-100.00%	―
BMN	56 Neutral	AU$838.99M	-192.28	-2.73%	―	―	60.83%
PDN	55 Neutral	AU$5.94B	-79.38	-6.47%	―	―	-163.65%
EL8	50 Neutral	AU$186.39M	-12.71	-69.11%	―	―	1.38%
BKY	46 Neutral	AU$258.85M	-49.18	-6.30%	―	―	-67.12%
ERA	37 Underperform	AU$1.22B	―	―	―	-100.00%	98.06%

Paladin Energy Ltd Corporate Events

Paladin Energy Issues Compliance-Focused December Quarter Presentation With Extensive Risk and Reporting Disclosures

Paladin Energy has released a December 2025 quarter presentation dated 21 January 2026 that serves primarily as an informational and compliance-focused document rather than an operational or financial update. The presentation reiterates that it is not an offer or investment recommendation, emphasises the inherent risks of investing in a uranium miner, and details extensive disclaimers around forward-looking statements, non-IFRS financial measures and market data. It also restates the technical basis for Paladin’s reported mineral resources and reserves, distinguishing between JORC-compliant estimates and foreign estimates prepared under Canada’s NI 43-101 for the PLS project, and confirms there has been no material change to the underlying technical assumptions disclosed in prior reports. The release underscores ongoing regulatory and reporting discipline across Australian and Canadian jurisdictions, signalling to investors and other stakeholders that Paladin is maintaining formal transparency on geological, operational and financial reporting standards while cautioning that actual performance remains subject to significant industry and market risks.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PDN) stock is a Hold with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paladin Energy Ltd stock, see the AU:PDN Stock Forecast page.

Paladin Energy Lifts Uranium Output and Sales as Langer Heinrich Ramp-Up Gains Pace

Paladin Energy reported a strong December quarter as ramp-up at its Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia delivered a 16% increase in uranium output to 1.23 million pounds U3O8, helped by higher ore grades and strong plant recoveries. Sales nearly tripled quarter-on-quarter to 1.43 million pounds at an average realised price of US$71.80 per pound, reflecting robust contract terms and firming uranium prices, while unit production costs fell to US$39.70 per pound, supporting margins. The company now expects full-year FY2026 production to track towards the upper end of its 4.0–4.4 million pound guidance range, has completed mobilisation for its winter drilling program at the PLS Project, and strengthened its balance sheet via an equity raising and debt facility restructure, leaving it with US$278.4 million in cash and investments and an undrawn US$70 million revolver. Recent senior appointments, including a new President for Paladin Canada and a Chief Operating Officer, together with stable safety performance, underline management’s push to solidify operational reliability and advance its Canadian growth pipeline as global interest in nuclear energy continues to build.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PDN) stock is a Hold with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paladin Energy Ltd stock, see the AU:PDN Stock Forecast page.

Paladin Energy Sets Date for December Quarter Results and Investor Call

Paladin Energy has scheduled the release of its quarterly results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 21 January 2026, with the announcement to be published on both the ASX and SEDAR+ platforms. The company will host an investor conference call on the same day to discuss the results, with a recording made available on its website afterward, underscoring its ongoing engagement with shareholders and the broader market around its financial and operational performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PDN) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paladin Energy Ltd stock, see the AU:PDN Stock Forecast page.

Paladin Energy Reports Lapse of 238,658 Performance Rights

Paladin Energy Ltd has notified the market of the cessation of 238,658 performance rights, which lapsed on 30 December 2025 because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse of these performance rights results in a small reduction in potential future equity dilution for existing shareholders and reflects an adjustment to the company’s incentive arrangements without affecting its current issued share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PDN) stock is a Hold with a A$10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paladin Energy Ltd stock, see the AU:PDN Stock Forecast page.

Paladin Energy Issues 954,183 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan

Paladin Energy Ltd has issued 954,183 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 30 December 2025. The move underscores the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to align staff incentives with long-term shareholder value, though the new securities will not be quoted on the ASX, limiting immediate market tradability while still contributing to potential future dilution and staff retention objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PDN) stock is a Hold with a A$9.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paladin Energy Ltd stock, see the AU:PDN Stock Forecast page.

Paladin Energy to Webcast AGM Proceedings

Paladin Energy Ltd announced that it will webcast its Annual General Meeting (AGM), allowing shareholders to listen and submit questions online. However, voting will not be available through the webcast, and shareholders must follow proxy voting instructions to participate in the voting process at the physical AGM.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PDN) stock is a Buy with a A$10.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paladin Energy Ltd stock, see the AU:PDN Stock Forecast page.

Paladin Energy Releases FY2025 Sustainability Report

Paladin Energy Ltd has released its FY2025 Sustainability Report, highlighting its performance on key sustainability topics and its progress towards meeting the Australian Sustainability Reporting Standard by FY2026. The report also covers the acquisition of Fission Uranium Corp., now Paladin Canada Inc., and includes data on sustainability-related activities across its global operations. Paladin is committed to aligning with international standards such as the Global Reporting Initiative and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board, and is preparing for mandatory climate-related reporting in Australia.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PDN) stock is a Buy with a A$10.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paladin Energy Ltd stock, see the AU:PDN Stock Forecast page.