iCollege Ltd. (NXD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$41.16M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 408.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -1.05
• Revenue Growth: -13.91%
• EPS Growth: 53.37%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 222,459,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 51,324
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 408,640
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.36
• Price Target Upside: 80.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): >-0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$94.40M

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.22 ▲(7.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/17/26

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial health (ongoing losses and high leverage) and bearish technical signals (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). Improved free cash flow provides some support, but valuation remains difficult to justify with negative earnings and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Improved free cash flow

A 590.80% rise in free cash flow signals a durable improvement in cash generation capacity. Sustained FCF reduces reliance on external financing, enables reinvestment in courses and tech, and provides a buffer while the business works to restore profitability and deleverage over months.

High gross margin

A 53.27% gross margin indicates the core education product has healthy pricing power and scalability. This structural margin allows the company to absorb SG&A and invest in content, meaning long-term profitability is achievable if operating costs are controlled and enrolment stabilizes.

Improving earnings trend

An 82% EPS growth metric suggests earnings are moving in the right direction, reflecting operational improvements or cost discipline. If sustained, this trend supports recovery from losses, improves return metrics and increases the chance of reaching consistent positive net income over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Negative net profit margin

A persistent -15.20% net margin reflects ongoing unprofitability that erodes equity and limits internal funding for growth. Over months, continued losses increase the need for external capital, impede reinvestment, and make it harder to convert strong gross margins into sustainable net returns.

High leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.01 indicates significant leverage that raises interest burden and refinancing risk. With negative earnings, high leverage constrains flexibility, increases default vulnerability in downturns, and may force costly capital raises or asset sales to meet obligations over the medium term.

Low equity buffer

An equity ratio of 17.12% signals a thin capital base and limited shock absorption. Combined with recent revenue declines, the low equity cushion makes the business more exposed to enrolment or funding shocks, reducing resilience and raising the probability of dilutive financing if operational recovery slips.

iCollege Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

iCollege Ltd. (NXD) is a leading educational technology company focused on providing innovative learning solutions and digital resources. Operating primarily in the online education sector, iCollege offers a range of services including e-learning platforms, course materials, and interactive training modules designed for both individuals and corporate clients. The company aims to enhance the learning experience through advanced technology and a user-friendly interface.

How the Company Makes Money

iCollege Ltd. generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by charging tuition fees for its online courses and certification programs, which cater to a diverse audience ranging from students to professionals seeking skill enhancement. Additionally, iCollege licenses its e-learning platform to educational institutions and businesses, allowing them to utilize the technology for their own training needs. The company also partners with corporate clients to create customized training solutions, which are billed on a subscription or project basis. Furthermore, iCollege may generate income through affiliate marketing and sponsorships related to its educational offerings, enhancing its overall revenue.

iCollege Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak profitability and leverage drive the score: revenue declined 3.29%, net profit and EBIT margins are negative (net margin -15.20%), and debt-to-equity is high at 2.01 with negative ROE. Offsetting this, cash generation improved materially with free cash flow up 590.80% and relatively efficient free cash flow vs. net income.

Income Statement

iCollege Ltd. has experienced fluctuating revenue growth, with a recent decline of 3.29% in the latest year. The company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. Despite a strong gross profit margin of 53.27%, the net profit margin remains negative at -15.20%, indicating challenges in managing operating expenses and other costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.01, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio stands at 17.12%, suggesting a relatively low proportion of equity financing compared to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a substantial improvement in free cash flow, with a growth rate of 590.80%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.19, indicating some ability to convert earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	94.56M	95.87M	111.37M	102.22M	46.82M	16.29M
Gross Profit	32.86M	51.08M	57.28M	20.31M	28.73M	3.61M
EBITDA	7.59M	4.31M	-13.12M	17.51M	343.00K	2.02M
Net Income	-6.93M	-14.57M	-31.23M	3.61M	-8.70M	308.10K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	105.77M	117.84M	134.28M	172.07M	134.69M	12.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.96M	18.89M	19.34M	30.26M	27.16M	4.55M
Total Debt	63.88M	40.57M	47.87M	43.84M	21.39M	4.71M
Total Liabilities	85.76M	97.66M	99.66M	106.63M	73.12M	10.57M
Stockholders Equity	20.01M	20.18M	34.62M	65.44M	61.57M	1.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.11M	11.11M	-9.70M	19.03M	8.27M	-404.64K
Operating Cash Flow	13.31M	11.25M	1.71M	25.18M	11.20M	-24.15K
Investing Cash Flow	-391.00K	-1.03M	-11.41M	-6.15M	18.42M	-741.65K
Financing Cash Flow	-10.70M	-10.67M	-1.22M	-15.93M	-7.00M	4.47M

iCollege Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NXD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.20, below the 50-day MA of 0.25, and below the 200-day MA of 0.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NXD.

iCollege Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EDU	73 Outperform	AU$79.34M	8.09	60.13%	1.17%	120.57%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
3PL	53 Neutral	AU$122.81M	119.49	0.15%	―	-1.08%	―
KME	48 Neutral	AU$30.21M	4.70	10.80%	1.67%	-2.81%	-503.02%
NXD	45 Neutral	AU$41.16M	-25.24	-53.18%	―	-13.91%	53.37%
AKG	45 Neutral	AU$14.59M	-4.84	-7.51%	―	1.42%	86.97%
CLU	38 Underperform	AU$17.66M	-2.37	-126.76%	―	-14.55%	70.98%

iCollege Ltd. Corporate Events

NextEd turns operational reset into profit momentum and bets on AI-enabled growth

NextEd Group Limited, a major listed Australian private education provider with campuses across key cities and a broad portfolio of English language, vocational and higher education courses, continues to position itself as a diversified skills and training platform. Its programs in business, technology, design, hospitality, health and community services cater to growing demand for career-oriented learning among both domestic and international students.

The company reported a stronger half-year to 31 December 2025 as its operational reset translated into a sharp improvement in profitability metrics, with underlying EBITDA rising 16.7% to $6.7 million, net loss narrowing to $0.7 million and operating cash flow tripling to $3.0 million despite a 2% dip in revenue to $45.7 million. Management is now shifting from stabilisation to disciplined growth, targeting higher vocational enrolments, better campus utilisation and margin expansion while leveraging a high-profile collaboration with OpenAI to roll out AI-enabled teaching and learning, a move that could reinforce its competitive edge and long-term value proposition in the evolving education sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NXD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.19 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on iCollege Ltd. stock, see the AU:NXD Stock Forecast page.

NextEd Narrows Half-Year Loss Despite Slight Revenue Dip

NextEd Group Limited reported a modest 2.0% decline in revenue to $45.7 million for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, compared with the prior corresponding period. The company remains asset-light in tangible terms, with net tangible liabilities of $8.4 million and a negative net tangible asset per share position.

Despite the softer top line, the group sharply reduced its loss after tax attributable to members to $0.7 million from $8.3 million a year earlier, marking a 92.0% improvement. Total comprehensive loss also narrowed significantly, and the company again elected not to declare an interim dividend, underscoring an ongoing focus on balance sheet repair and capital preservation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NXD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.19 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on iCollege Ltd. stock, see the AU:NXD Stock Forecast page.

NextEd Says New National Code Changes Will Not Dent Earnings

NextEd Group Limited has advised that recent amendments to Australia’s National Code of Practice for Providers of Education and Training to Overseas Students, which ban education agent commissions on recruiting international students who transfer onshore from another provider before completing their principal course, are not expected to have a material impact on its earnings or student enrolments. The company notes that onshore transfers are a minor component of its commencements, its diversified mix across VET, ELICOS and higher education limits exposure to the affected recruitment practices, and its Go Study agency is not expected to be materially impacted; NextEd argues the changes will more heavily affect providers more dependent on onshore international higher education transfers and says it is well positioned to benefit from a more transparent and compliant international education sector created by these integrity-focused reforms.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NXD) stock is a Sell with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on iCollege Ltd. stock, see the AU:NXD Stock Forecast page.