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Lynas Rare Earths Limited (AU:LYC)
ASX:LYC
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Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:LYC

Lynas Rare Earths

(Sydney:LYC)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$11.50
▼(-21.93% Downside)
Lynas Rare Earths Limited's stock score is primarily supported by strong technical momentum, indicating bullish investor sentiment. However, financial performance is challenged by declining margins and high capital expenditures, while high valuations and external market pressures further weigh on the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Production Performance
Lynas achieved record NdPr production of ~2kt, outpacing estimates by 26%, ultimately generating a 2% top line beat to consensus.
Strategic Partnerships
Lynas announced a MoU with Kelantan Menteri Besar Inc for the development of rare earth deposits, complementing their own Mt Weld mine expansion.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
Elevated costs from Kalgoorlie cannibalize margin, affecting financial performance.
Revenue Shortfall
Lynas' 3Q revenues missed estimates due to a 19% reduction in overall rare earth concentrate volumes, impacted by maintenance and modifications.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals primarily in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds an interest in the Mount Weld project, Western Australia. Its products include yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium. The company also develops and operates advanced material processing and concentration plants. In addition, it offers corporate services. The company was formerly known as Lynas Corporation Limited and changed its name to Lynas Corporation Limited in November 2020. Lynas Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyLynas Rare Earths generates revenue primarily through the mining, processing, and sale of rare earth oxides. The company's revenue streams include the sale of key rare earth elements such as neodymium and praseodymium, which are critical for manufacturing permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other technologies. Additionally, Lynas benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements with major global manufacturers and technology companies. The company's earnings are also influenced by market demand for rare earths, geopolitical factors affecting global supply chains, and its ability to maintain efficient production processes to meet customer needs.

Lynas Rare Earths Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance by Lynas, highlighted by record production achievements and strategic advancements in both upstream and downstream operations. While there are concerns about pricing uncertainties and ongoing operational challenges, the overall outlook remains positive due to the successful completion of major projects and favorable market conditions.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Achievement
Exceeded 2,000 tonnes of production for the first time in the quarter, with expectations of continued record production each month.
Heavy Rare Earths Production Milestone
First commercial production of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide at the new production line in Malaysia, marking the first commercial production of separated Heavy Rare Earths outside China in many years.
Successful Project Completion
Mt Weld expansion project major construction completed on time and on budget, with the first wind turbine installed and solar farm completed.
Strategic Partnerships
Signed MOUs with the Kelantan Menteri Besar Inc. and JS Link for upstream and downstream asset development in Malaysia and Korea, respectively.
Positive Market Outlook
Significant positive moves in rare earth pricing, with potential to leverage current assets during market upturns.
Negative Updates
Pricing Uncertainty
Questions remain about the impact of U.S. government pricing mechanisms and potential dual pricing systems on global rare earth prices.
Dependence on External Developments
Lynas' growth strategy relies on external market developments, including U.S. and ex-China industry growth, which are uncertain.
Operational Challenges
Kalgoorlie facility ramp-up requires additional work to achieve desired quality levels, with continued focus on reducing non-rare earth impurities.
Company Guidance
During the Lynas Rare Earths investor briefing for the June 2025 quarter, several key metrics were highlighted. The company achieved a milestone by exceeding 2,000 tonnes of production for the first time in the quarter, marking significant progress in their development and investment program. The report also noted the first commercial production of separated heavy rare earths, specifically dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, at the new production line in Malaysia, which is the first outside China in many years. Lynas successfully completed major construction for the Mt Weld expansion project, with ongoing non-process construction, and transitioned to renewable energy sources with the installation of a wind turbine and completion of a solar farm. Additionally, the company signed MOUs for upstream and downstream developments in Malaysia and Korea, respectively, aiming for strategic growth. Despite challenges, Lynas maintained a focus on growth, with projections of continued price increases in the rare earth market and plans for further expansion in the U.S. and Malaysia.

Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lynas Rare Earths Limited faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability with declining margins. Despite a strong balance sheet with low leverage, cash flow issues arise from high capital expenditures.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Lynas Rare Earths Limited has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profitability over the past year. The gross profit margin decreased due to rising costs or reduced sale prices. Similarly, net profit margin and EBIT margin reflect this downturn, indicating operational inefficiencies or market challenges. However, the company exhibited strong EBITDA margins in prior years, showing potential for recovery if cost structures are optimized.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company maintains a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability and reduced financial risk. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a well-capitalized structure. However, the decline in return on equity (ROE) suggests challenges in generating profits from shareholders' investments. Despite this, the overall balance sheet position remains robust, providing a buffer against economic volatility.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Lynas Rare Earths Limited faced substantial negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures, impacting cash resources. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation from operations is not aligning with reported earnings. However, historic positive cash flow trends suggest potential for improvement if capital expenditures are managed effectively.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue464.45M739.28M920.01M506.00M314.09M
Gross Profit184.46M339.39M601.26M266.59M108.29M
EBITDA172.44M416.61M607.80M239.28M62.20M
Net Income84.51M310.67M540.82M157.08M-19.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.80B2.64B2.06B1.48B936.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments523.84M1.01B965.58M680.83M101.73M
Total Debt183.98M190.35M190.46M173.19M201.96M
Total Liabilities562.12M475.27M416.02M394.17M417.74M
Stockholders Equity2.24B2.16B1.65B1.08B518.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-544.38M-183.65M271.16M170.69M15.84M
Operating Cash Flow34.96M411.87M457.46M211.14M27.93M
Investing Cash Flow-507.22M-585.86M-87.54M-140.76M-24.65M
Financing Cash Flow-22.54M205.25M-7.26M412.02M9.03M

Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.73
Price Trends
50DMA
10.97
Positive
100DMA
9.58
Positive
200DMA
8.26
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.16
Negative
RSI
71.08
Negative
STOCH
73.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.31, above the 50-day MA of 10.97, and above the 200-day MA of 8.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.08 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYC.

Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$13.76B270.770.34%20.12%-90.49%
61
Neutral
$10.31B6.290.76%2.95%3.36%-36.41%
$341.42M-13.10%
$190.48M-428.37%
$93.92M-21.89%
47
Neutral
AU$127.42M-15.33%-52.53%-27.29%
44
Neutral
AU$383.84M-179.51%-100.00%-27.86%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
14.73
7.71
109.83%
ARAFF
Arafura Resources
0.12
0.00
0.00%
NOURF
Northern Minerals Limited
0.03
<0.01
50.00%
PKREF
Peak Rare Earths Limited
0.16
0.05
45.45%
AU:ASM
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd
0.60
0.12
25.00%
AU:MAU
Magnetic Resources NL
1.26
-0.31
-19.75%

Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events

Lynas Rare Earths Boosts Production and Expands Strategic Partnerships
Jul 23, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths reported a significant increase in quarterly sales revenue, reaching A$170.2 million, driven by a rise in NdPr production and the first commercial production of separated heavy rare earths outside China. The company is advancing its renewable energy initiatives and expanding its strategic partnerships, including a new MOU with JS Link for a magnet manufacturing facility in Malaysia, reflecting its commitment to enhancing supply chain resilience and supporting Malaysia’s economic development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Partners with JS Link for Malaysian Magnet Manufacturing Facility
Jul 23, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Korean company JS Link to develop a 3,000 tonne capacity NdFeB permanent sintered magnet manufacturing facility in Malaysia. This collaboration aims to establish a sustainable rare earth permanent magnet value chain, leveraging Lynas’ supply of rare earth materials and JS Link’s expertise in magnet manufacturing, potentially strengthening Lynas’ market position and contributing to the growth of the magnet industry in Malaysia.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths to Announce Quarterly Results and Host Briefing
Jul 10, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd announced that it will release its quarterly results for the period ending 30 June 2025 on 24 July 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a briefing hosted by the Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Lacaze, which will be accessible via a webcast. This update is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Sees Change in Substantial Shareholding
Jul 9, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Limited has announced a change in the substantial holding of its shares, with State Street Global Advisors and its affiliates adjusting their voting power. The change in holdings reflects a shift in the voting power from 7.46% to 8.53%, indicating an increased stake in Lynas Rare Earths. This adjustment in shareholding could influence the company’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning, as State Street Global Advisors is a significant player in the financial sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Increases Stake in Lynas Rare Earths
Jun 24, 2025

Challenger Limited, along with its associated entities, has announced a change in its substantial holding in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The notice indicates a shift in voting power from 5.08% to 6.12%, reflecting an increase in the number of shares held. This adjustment in holdings could impact Lynas Rare Earths’ shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Expands Product Line with Terbium Oxide Production
Jun 17, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has announced the first production of Terbium Oxide at its advanced materials plant in Malaysia, following the recent production of Dysprosium Oxide. This development allows Lynas to supply two critical heavy rare earths required for the production of permanent magnets used in electric motors, enhancing the resilience of manufacturers’ supply chains. The company is actively engaging with customers for commercial supply arrangements, leveraging its world-class Mt Weld deposit as a reliable source of rare earth minerals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Partners with Malaysian Government for Rare Earths Supply
May 30, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Menteri Besar Inc., the investment arm of the Kelantan State Government in Malaysia, for the supply of mixed rare earths carbonate. This collaboration aims to enhance the Malaysian rare earths industry by leveraging local resources and Lynas’ expertise. The agreement is expected to bolster Lynas’ operations by providing a reliable feedstock for its Malaysian plant, particularly benefiting from the high proportion of Heavy Rare Earths in Malaysia’s ionic clay deposits, which are crucial for technologies like electric vehicles and electronics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Greencape Capital Increases Stake in Lynas Rare Earths
May 22, 2025

Greencape Capital Pty Ltd has increased its stake in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd, reflecting a change in the interests of a substantial holder. The adjustment in voting power from 5.01% to 6.11% indicates a strengthened position for Greencape Capital, potentially impacting Lynas’s shareholder dynamics and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Achieves Milestone with First Heavy Rare Earths Production
May 15, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has announced the successful production of Dysprosium Oxide at its Malaysian facility, marking a significant milestone as the first separated heavy rare earths production outside China. This development is expected to enhance supply chain resilience and provide alternative sourcing options for customers globally, reflecting the high demand for these products and positioning Lynas as a key player in the market restructuring efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Director’s Interest Changes
May 7, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced changes in the director’s interest, specifically involving Amanda Lacaze, with the grant and exercise of Employee Performance Rights and the sale of Ordinary Shares by the Morgan Lacaze Family Trust. These changes reflect adjustments in the company’s equity structure, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

Lynas Rare Earths Issues Unquoted Performance Rights
May 5, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced the issuance of 2,039,303 unquoted performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not quoted on the ASX until the restrictions end, indicating a strategic move to align employee interests with company performance.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
May 5, 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced the quotation of 728,687 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of May 5, 2025. This move follows the cessation of transfer restrictions on securities previously issued under an employee incentive scheme, potentially impacting the company’s market liquidity and investor interest.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025