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Lynas Rare Earths
(OTC:LYC)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$14.00
▼(-5.34% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality and sharply compressed profitability despite revenue growth, alongside a clearly bearish price trend (trading below all key moving averages) and an expensive P/E with no dividend support. Offsetting these are balance-sheet strength (low leverage) and a constructive earnings-call outlook driven by stronger NdPr pricing, funded growth projects, and commissioning progress, though near-term execution and reliability risks remain.
Positive Factors
Low leverage and strong balance sheet
A very low debt-to-equity ratio gives Lynas durable financial flexibility to fund large capex (Kalgoorlie, Mt Weld, Malaysia HRE) and to absorb commodity volatility without immediate refinancing pressure. This supports multi-year project execution and credit resilience as expansions ramp.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow and cash conversion
Negative FCF and poor conversion mean Lynas must manage working capital and rely on financing or reserves to fund capital programs. Even with a strong cash balance today, persistent weak FCF raises sustainability risk for ongoing capex, dividends or buffer against commodity cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage and strong balance sheet
A very low debt-to-equity ratio gives Lynas durable financial flexibility to fund large capex (Kalgoorlie, Mt Weld, Malaysia HRE) and to absorb commodity volatility without immediate refinancing pressure. This supports multi-year project execution and credit resilience as expansions ramp.
Read all positive factors
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$14.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)167.3
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth48.27%
EPS Growth54.60%
CountryAU
Employees1,127
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding1,006,502,560
10 Day Avg. Volume4,650,481
30 Day Avg. Volume3,817,151
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.18
Price to Book (P/B)3.42
Price to Sales (P/S)14.84
P/FCF Ratio-24.65
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$18.15Price Target Upside22.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.70B
Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lynas Rare Earths Limited, along with its subsidiary companies, is actively involved in the entire process of rare earth mineral extraction and refinement, spanning exploration, development, mining, and processing, predominantly within Australia a...
How the Company Makes Money
Lynas makes money by selling rare earth products produced from its vertically integrated supply chain. Its core revenue stream is the sale of rare earth materials (including separated rare earth products) to industrial customers, with pricing and ...
Lynas Rare Earths Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive outlook: strong market fundamentals (NdPr prices up materially YoY and recently above $110/kg), successful commissioning milestones (Mt Weld expansion, Malaysia HRE separation, hybrid power station delivering ~92% renewable power in December), and a strengthened balance sheet from a capital raise (funding Towards 2030 projects including a $180m HRE plant). Challenges remain—primarily Kalgoorlie ramp-up and power reliability, higher near‑term G&A and depreciation, working capital timing, and some regulatory and supply‑chain risks—but management has concrete mitigation plans and contingency sourcing. Overall the favourable pricing environment, operational progress in Malaysia, clear capacity pathway (10.5→12k tpa and identified uplifts), and strong safety execution outweigh the operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Commissioning of Mt Weld expansion and new flotation circuit
Mt Weld expansion largely commissioned with the new flotation circuit operating at ~70% of nameplate; beneficiation upgrades enable recovery from tailings (tailings concentrated at ~7.0–7.5% rare earths) and support future throughput uplifts (previously identified +2,400 tpa potential at concentrator).
Negative Updates
Kalgoorlie ramp-up impacted by power disruptions
Kalgoorlie ramp-up hampered by external power reliability issues during the second quarter; NdPr production was 'a little bit off' record 6-month plans because of Kalgoorlie power problems and shifting bottlenecks in the carbonation/carbonation circuit.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Commissioning of Mt Weld expansion and new flotation circuit
Mt Weld expansion largely commissioned with the new flotation circuit operating at ~70% of nameplate; beneficiation upgrades enable recovery from tailings (tailings concentrated at ~7.0–7.5% rare earths) and support future throughput uplifts (previously identified +2,400 tpa potential at concentrator).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call highlighted a near‑term production build‑up (short term ~8–9k tpa NdPr due to Kalgoorlie power constraints, with a clear target to reach ~10.5k tpa — ~30 t/day — as ramp‑up continues, and a planned step to ~12k tpa longer term with a potential additional ~2.4k tpa from Mt Weld), timing for the new Heavy Rare Earths (HRE) facility in Malaysia toward end‑CY2027 (current local HRE circuit throughput ~1,500 t with the announced new Malaysian HRE plant sized for ~5,000 t throughput), strong pricing and cash tailwinds (NdPr spot: Dec‑25 US$74/kg vs US$49/kg Dec‑24 and recently >US$110/kg; provisional pricing tailwind ~US$20m), capital and cash metrics (over US$1bn+ raised and on deposit, Mt Weld expansion mostly commissioned, Kalgoorlie capex ~US$800m and Mt Weld expansion ~US$550m with ~US$1.35bn coming into operation, FY26 capex guidance previously ~US$160m, and a US$180m allocation announced for the new HRE plant), operational sustainability targets achieved or underway (65 MW hybrid power station operational, December renewables ~92% vs initial 70% target; water recycling target 90% tailings water demonstrated but not yet fully reliable), safety (Mt Weld and Kalgoorlie 12 months without recordable injuries; major Malaysian maintenance = ~100,000 work‑hours, 30+ contractors, no injuries), and commercial intent to place 100% of product outside China as downstream capacity comes online.Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 715.89M | 542.66M | 464.45M | 739.28M | 920.01M | 489.02M |
| Gross Profit | 197.47M | 179.21M | 184.46M | 325.60M | 571.63M | 179.48M |
| EBITDA | 186.19M | 116.30M | 172.44M | 416.61M | 607.80M | 239.28M |
| Net Income | 82.35M | 7.99M | 84.51M | 310.67M | 540.82M | 157.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.99B | 2.94B | 2.80B | 2.64B | 2.06B | 1.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 166.49M | 523.84M | 1.01B | 965.58M | 680.83M |
| Total Debt | 286.28M | 202.05M | 183.98M | 190.35M | 190.46M | 173.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 630.53M | 591.51M | 562.12M | 475.27M | 416.02M | 394.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.36B | 2.35B | 2.24B | 2.16B | 1.65B | 1.08B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -20.74M | -326.66M | -544.38M | -183.65M | 271.16M | 170.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 143.07M | 104.17M | 34.96M | 411.87M | 457.46M | 211.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -554.38M | -406.19M | -507.22M | -585.86M | -87.54M | -140.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 873.59M | -45.30M | -22.54M | 205.25M | -7.26M | 412.02M |
Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.79
Price Trends
16.96
Negative
18.27
Negative
16.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.51
Negative
54.66
Neutral
83.88
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.30, below the 50-day MA of 16.96, and below the 200-day MA of 16.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:LYC.
Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | AU$14.18B | 167.34 | 2.88% | ― | 48.27% | 54.60% | |
48 Neutral | AU$1.09B | -42.86 | -3.17% | ― | ― | 81.58% | |
48 Neutral | AU$191.77M | -30.56 | -14.67% | ― | ― | 22.86% | |
45 Neutral | AU$238.60M | -7.58 | -128.41% | ― | ― | 36.54% | |
44 Neutral | AU$270.37M | -9.05 | -10.21% | 12.45% | 294.23% | 37.64% | |
43 Neutral | AU$61.07M | -0.78 | -67.75% | ― | ― | 69.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
16.25
3.29
25.39%
AU:ARU
Arafura Resources
0.20
>-0.01
-4.88%
AU:ARR
American Rare Earths
0.36
-0.04
-10.00%
AU:NTU
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0.03
>-0.01
-25.71%
AU:ASM
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd
1.11
0.52
88.14%
AU:HAS
Hastings Technology Metals Limited
0.33
0.04
12.63%
Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events
Lynas Rare Earths Plans Issue of Unsecured Convertible Notes
Jul 26, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Limited has notified the ASX of a proposed securities issue involving unsecured convertible notes, with a maximum of 1,873,386 notes to be issued. The new instrument, to be formally classified under a yet-to-be-confirmed security...
Lynas Strikes Cross-Subscription Deal to Boost Rare Earth Metal Capacity
Jul 26, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has signed binding agreements with LS Eco Energy, a subsidiary of LS Cable System, for a cross-subscription of zero-interest convertible instruments worth about AUD 29m each, maturing in five years and convertible into ordinary ...
Lynas Rare Earths Sets Date for June Quarter Results and Investor Briefing
Jul 9, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths will release its quarterly results for the period ending 30 June 2026 on 22 July 2026, signaling an upcoming update on its financial and operational performance to the market. Interim Chief Executive Officer Pol Le Roux will host...
Lynas Discloses Director Amanda Lacaze’s Exit and Ongoing Equity Stakes
Jul 6, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Limited has announced that Amanda Lacaze ceased to be a director of the company effective 30 June 2026, marking the end of her tenure on the board. The notice details her remaining interests in Lynas securities, including 75,365 ...
Lynas Rare Earths Updates Market on Managing Director’s Expanded Performance Rights Holding
Jun 18, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has disclosed a change in the interests of its managing director, Amanda Lacaze, following the grant of 185,448 Employee Performance Rights to the Morgan Lacaze Family Trust. The award, which was approved at the company’s a...
Lynas Issues New Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jun 18, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has issued 978,161 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with these securities subject to transfer restrictions and not quoted on the ASX until those restrictions end. The award of these performance rig...
Lynas Names COO Pol Le Roux as Interim CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Jun 4, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has appointed current Chief Operating Officer Pol Le Roux as interim chief executive officer from 1 July 2026, following the retirement of long-serving CEO and managing director Amanda Lacaze at the end of June. Le Roux, who has ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.