Lynas Rare Earths Limited (AU:LYC)
OTHER OTC:LYC
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Lynas Rare Earths
(OTC:LYC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$19.50
▼(-5.80% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/26/26
The score is driven by mixed financial performance—strong balance sheet but compressed margins and weak free cash flow—offset by solid technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook supported by pricing strength and commissioning progress. A high P/E with no stated dividend yield tempers the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Capacity expansion & vertical integration
Lynas has a clear, multi‑stage capacity pathway and downstream separation capability that raises product value capture. Securing additional heavy rare earth (HRE) throughput and identified uplifts at Mt Weld improve long‑term margin potential and strengthen commercial leverage outside China.
Negative Factors
Compressed margins and weak free cash flow
Sharp margin contraction and negative free cash flow signal deteriorating cash generation despite revenue growth. Persistent low margins plus rising depreciation from recent capex will constrain internally generated funds, increasing reliance on external financing for growth and reducing financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capacity expansion & vertical integration
Lynas has a clear, multi‑stage capacity pathway and downstream separation capability that raises product value capture. Securing additional heavy rare earth (HRE) throughput and identified uplifts at Mt Weld improve long‑term margin potential and strengthen commercial leverage outside China.
Read all positive factors
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$18.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)225.3
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth48.27%
EPS Growth54.60%
CountryAU
Employees270
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding1,006,502,560
10 Day Avg. Volume3,929,833
30 Day Avg. Volume3,695,980
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.18
Price to Book (P/B)3.42
Price to Sales (P/S)14.84
P/FCF Ratio-24.65
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$21.37Price Target Upside3.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.07B
Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lynas Rare Earths Limited, along with its subsidiary companies, is actively involved in the entire process of rare earth mineral extraction and refinement, spanning exploration, development, mining, and processing, predominantly within Australia a...
How the Company Makes Money
Lynas makes money by selling rare earth products produced from its vertically integrated supply chain. Its core revenue stream is the sale of rare earth materials (including separated rare earth products) to industrial customers, with pricing and ...
Lynas Rare Earths Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive outlook: strong market fundamentals (NdPr prices up materially YoY and recently above $110/kg), successful commissioning milestones (Mt Weld expansion, Malaysia HRE separation, hybrid power station delivering ~92% renewable power in December), and a strengthened balance sheet from a capital raise (funding Towards 2030 projects including a $180m HRE plant). Challenges remain—primarily Kalgoorlie ramp-up and power reliability, higher near‑term G&A and depreciation, working capital timing, and some regulatory and supply‑chain risks—but management has concrete mitigation plans and contingency sourcing. Overall the favourable pricing environment, operational progress in Malaysia, clear capacity pathway (10.5→12k tpa and identified uplifts), and strong safety execution outweigh the operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Commissioning of Mt Weld expansion and new flotation circuit
Mt Weld expansion largely commissioned with the new flotation circuit operating at ~70% of nameplate; beneficiation upgrades enable recovery from tailings (tailings concentrated at ~7.0–7.5% rare earths) and support future throughput uplifts (previously identified +2,400 tpa potential at concentrator).
Negative Updates
Kalgoorlie ramp-up impacted by power disruptions
Kalgoorlie ramp-up hampered by external power reliability issues during the second quarter; NdPr production was 'a little bit off' record 6-month plans because of Kalgoorlie power problems and shifting bottlenecks in the carbonation/carbonation circuit.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Commissioning of Mt Weld expansion and new flotation circuit
Mt Weld expansion largely commissioned with the new flotation circuit operating at ~70% of nameplate; beneficiation upgrades enable recovery from tailings (tailings concentrated at ~7.0–7.5% rare earths) and support future throughput uplifts (previously identified +2,400 tpa potential at concentrator).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call highlighted a near‑term production build‑up (short term ~8–9k tpa NdPr due to Kalgoorlie power constraints, with a clear target to reach ~10.5k tpa — ~30 t/day — as ramp‑up continues, and a planned step to ~12k tpa longer term with a potential additional ~2.4k tpa from Mt Weld), timing for the new Heavy Rare Earths (HRE) facility in Malaysia toward end‑CY2027 (current local HRE circuit throughput ~1,500 t with the announced new Malaysian HRE plant sized for ~5,000 t throughput), strong pricing and cash tailwinds (NdPr spot: Dec‑25 US$74/kg vs US$49/kg Dec‑24 and recently >US$110/kg; provisional pricing tailwind ~US$20m), capital and cash metrics (over US$1bn+ raised and on deposit, Mt Weld expansion mostly commissioned, Kalgoorlie capex ~US$800m and Mt Weld expansion ~US$550m with ~US$1.35bn coming into operation, FY26 capex guidance previously ~US$160m, and a US$180m allocation announced for the new HRE plant), operational sustainability targets achieved or underway (65 MW hybrid power station operational, December renewables ~92% vs initial 70% target; water recycling target 90% tailings water demonstrated but not yet fully reliable), safety (Mt Weld and Kalgoorlie 12 months without recordable injuries; major Malaysian maintenance = ~100,000 work‑hours, 30+ contractors, no injuries), and commercial intent to place 100% of product outside China as downstream capacity comes online.Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 715.89M | 542.66M | 464.45M | 739.28M | 920.01M | 489.02M |
| Gross Profit | 197.47M | 179.21M | 184.46M | 325.60M | 571.63M | 179.48M |
| EBITDA | 186.19M | 116.30M | 172.44M | 416.61M | 607.80M | 239.28M |
| Net Income | 82.35M | 7.99M | 84.51M | 310.67M | 540.82M | 157.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.99B | 2.94B | 2.80B | 2.64B | 2.06B | 1.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 166.49M | 523.84M | 1.01B | 965.58M | 680.83M |
| Total Debt | 286.28M | 202.05M | 183.98M | 190.35M | 190.46M | 173.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 630.53M | 591.51M | 562.12M | 475.27M | 416.02M | 394.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.36B | 2.35B | 2.24B | 2.16B | 1.65B | 1.08B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -20.74M | -326.66M | -544.38M | -183.65M | 271.16M | 170.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 143.07M | 104.17M | 34.96M | 411.87M | 457.46M | 211.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -554.38M | -406.19M | -507.22M | -585.86M | -87.54M | -140.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 873.59M | -45.30M | -22.54M | 205.25M | -7.26M | 412.02M |
Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis
Positive
20.70
Price Trends
18.80
Negative
18.60
Positive
17.01
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
51.96
Neutral
79.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.31, above the 50-day MA of 18.80, and above the 200-day MA of 17.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYC.
Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | AU$18.82B | 225.30 | 2.88% | ― | 48.27% | 54.60% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | AU$1.26B | -55.95 | -3.17% | ― | ― | 81.58% | |
48 Neutral | AU$191.69M | -31.02 | -14.67% | ― | ― | 22.86% | |
45 Neutral | AU$238.60M | -7.58 | -128.41% | ― | ― | 36.54% | |
44 Neutral | AU$328.79M | -10.91 | -10.21% | ― | 294.23% | 37.64% | |
41 Neutral | AU$67.18M | -0.91 | -67.75% | ― | ― | 69.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
18.70
9.50
103.26%
AU:ARU
Arafura Resources
0.24
0.06
34.29%
AU:ARR
American Rare Earths
0.33
0.09
34.69%
AU:NTU
Northern Minerals Limited
0.03
>-0.01
-16.67%
AU:ASM
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd
1.21
0.69
132.69%
AU:HAS
Hastings Technology Metals Limited
0.30
0.04
16.14%
Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events
Lynas Names COO Pol Le Roux as Interim CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Jun 4, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has appointed current Chief Operating Officer Pol Le Roux as interim chief executive officer from 1 July 2026, following the retirement of long-serving CEO and managing director Amanda Lacaze at the end of June. Le Roux, who has ...
JPMorgan Group Drops Below Substantial Holding in Lynas Rare Earths
Apr 13, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and a range of its global affiliates have notified Lynas Rare Earths that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 9 April 2026. The change reflects a series of transactions across securities lending, re...
Lynas Rare Earths Sets Date for March-Quarter Results and Webcast Briefing
Apr 13, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths will release its quarterly results for the period ended 31 March 2026 on 21 April 2026, providing investors and analysts with an update on its recent operational and financial performance. The company will also hold a webcast bri...
Lynas Malaysia Delivers First Samarium Oxide Ahead of Schedule
Mar 18, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has produced its first samarium oxide at its Malaysian plant, expanding its separated heavy rare earth product range to three oxides alongside dysprosium and terbium and reinforcing its status as the only commercial producer of s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.