Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$16.11B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1883.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 20.12%
• EPS Growth: -90.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 270
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 1,006,502,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,323,799
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,699,651
• PEG Ratio: -11.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 14.84
• P/FCF Ratio: -24.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$15.41
• Price Target Upside: -4.87% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$1.04B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$17.00 ▲(4.94% Upside)

Lynas Rare Earths' overall score is driven by strong earnings call highlights and a solid balance sheet. However, challenges in profitability, cash flow, and high valuation metrics weigh down the score. The technical indicators suggest limited upward momentum, adding to the cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong balance sheet

A very low debt-to-equity ratio provides enduring financial flexibility to fund capital projects and weather commodity cycles. Conservatively levered balance sheets reduce refinancing risk, support ongoing Mt Weld and downstream investments, and preserve optionality for strategic growth.

Production scale-up

Sustained increases in separated product output strengthen the company’s ability to supply long-term contracts and lower unit costs. Consistent higher throughput supports revenue durability, improves margins over time via scale, and enhances bargaining power with magnetmakers and strategic buyers.

Heavy rare earths capability

Commercial production of dysprosium and terbium outside China creates a durable competitive advantage in critical magnet materials. This capability expands product mix toward higher-value oxides, reduces customer reliance on China, and supports long-term strategic positioning in EV and wind supply chains.

Negative Factors

Severely compressed net margins

A sharp decline in net margin indicates structural pressure on profitability from costs, product mix, or pricing. Persistently low margins limit internal reinvestment, reduce free cash available for expansion, and weaken returns to shareholders absent sustained operational improvement.

Weak free cash flow conversion

Negative free cash flow growth and poor FCF-to-net income signal that reported earnings are not being converted into cash. This constrains funding for capex and growth, raises dependence on external financing, and increases vulnerability to cyclical price or working-capital shocks over the medium term.

Pricing and demand policy risk

Potential U.S. policy pricing mechanisms or dual-pricing regimes create lasting uncertainty in realized prices and contract structures. Structural policy shifts can change global price baselines, complicate long-term sales contracts and margin planning, and increase revenue volatility for producers.

Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals primarily in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds an interest in the Mount Weld project, Western Australia. Its products include yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium. The company also develops and operates advanced material processing and concentration plants. In addition, it offers corporate services. The company was formerly known as Lynas Corporation Limited and changed its name to Lynas Corporation Limited in November 2020. Lynas Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Lynas Rare Earths generates revenue primarily through the sale of rare earth oxides, which are produced from its mining operations and processing facilities. The company benefits from long-term supply agreements with various customers in key industries, including automotive, electronics, and clean energy. Additionally, Lynas has established partnerships with manufacturers and technology firms to secure stable demand for its products. The growing global demand for rare earth elements, driven by the transition to green technologies and the increasing use of electric vehicles, contributes significantly to Lynas's revenue streams. The company also explores opportunities for expanding its production capacity and diversifying its product offerings to enhance its market position and financial performance.

Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lynas Rare Earths shows promising revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but improving cash flow management and profitability margins is crucial.

Income Statement

Lynas Rare Earths has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 12.4% in the most recent year, indicating a recovery from previous declines. However, margins have significantly contracted compared to prior years, with the net profit margin dropping to 1.47% from 18.2% the previous year. This suggests challenges in maintaining profitability despite revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.086, indicating conservative leverage. The equity ratio is robust, and while return on equity has decreased to 0.34%, it remains positive, reflecting stable financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with negative free cash flow growth and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -3.14, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, suggesting operational cash generation is not fully covering net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	556.51M	542.66M	464.45M	739.28M	920.01M	489.02M
Gross Profit	129.82M	179.21M	184.46M	325.60M	571.63M	179.48M
EBITDA	45.54M	116.30M	172.44M	416.61M	607.80M	239.28M
Net Income	7.99M	7.99M	84.51M	310.67M	540.82M	157.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.94B	2.94B	2.80B	2.64B	2.06B	1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	166.49M	166.49M	523.84M	1.01B	965.58M	680.83M
Total Debt	202.05M	202.05M	183.98M	190.35M	190.46M	173.19M
Total Liabilities	591.51M	591.51M	562.12M	475.27M	416.02M	394.17M
Stockholders Equity	2.35B	2.35B	2.24B	2.16B	1.65B	1.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-326.66M	-326.66M	-544.38M	-183.65M	271.16M	170.69M
Operating Cash Flow	104.17M	104.17M	34.96M	411.87M	457.46M	211.14M
Investing Cash Flow	-425.43M	-406.19M	-507.22M	-585.86M	-87.54M	-140.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-38.96M	-45.30M	-22.54M	205.25M	-7.26M	412.02M

Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.84, above the 50-day MA of 14.23, and above the 200-day MA of 12.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYC.

Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LYC	62 Neutral	AU$16.11B	1,883.72	0.34%	―	20.12%	-90.49%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MAU	53 Neutral	AU$434.32M	-30.57	-179.67%	―	-100.00%	-6.00%
ARU	50 Neutral	AU$1.26B	-32.32	-13.10%	―	―	82.10%
ASM	47 Neutral	AU$455.69M	-12.95	-12.73%	―	2.00%	8.82%
NTU	44 Neutral	AU$334.05M	-8.65	―	―	―	32.73%

Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events

Lynas Grows Revenue on Strong Rare Earth Pricing Despite Production Hit and CEO Transition

Lynas Rare Earths reported quarterly gross sales revenue of A$201.9 million and sales receipts of A$185 million for the December 2025 quarter, with closing cash and short-term deposits of A$1.03 billion, despite total rare earth oxide production falling to 2,382 tonnes and NdPr output dropping about 30% from the prior quarter due to power disruptions in Kalgoorlie and planned maintenance in Malaysia. Improved pricing for NdPr, stronger benchmark prices across products, and new DyTb-linked contracts helped lift invoiced revenue slightly over the previous quarter and 43% year-on-year, while the company completed kiln maintenance in Malaysia, stabilised power in Kalgoorlie, advanced an off-grid energy solution there, finished commissioning its Mt Weld expansion and hybrid renewable power station, and began work on an expanded heavy rare earths separation circuit in Malaysia, all against the backdrop of CEO Amanda Lacaze’s planned retirement at the end of the financial year and ongoing focus on safety performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze to Retire After 12 Years as Board Begins Search for Successor

Lynas Rare Earths has announced that Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Amanda Lacaze will retire after 12 years in the role, during which she oversaw the company’s transformation from a troubled startup into a top-tier ASX50 rare earths producer. The board has launched a search for a new CEO, considering both internal and external candidates, while Lacaze will remain in place until the end of the current financial year to ensure a smooth leadership transition following the completion of the Lynas 2025 capital investment program and the launch of the company’s ‘Towards 2030’ growth strategy, providing continuity as Lynas pursues its next phase of expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Hold with a A$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Sets Date for December-Quarter Results and Investor Briefing

Lynas Rare Earths will release its quarterly results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 21 January 2026, followed by an analyst and shareholder webcast briefing hosted by Managing Director and CEO Amanda Lacaze at midday Sydney time. The scheduled update signals an upcoming disclosure of operational and financial performance at a time when rare earth supply security and market dynamics remain closely watched by investors and industry stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Director’s Share Sale to Meet Tax Liabilities

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving the sale of 329,688 ordinary shares by the Morgan Lacaze Family Trust. This transaction was conducted to meet taxation liabilities, and it resulted in a decrease in the number of shares held indirectly by the director, Amanda Lacaze. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements and may impact stakeholders’ perception of the company’s governance and financial strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Secures Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd announced the successful passing of all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. Key resolutions included the re-election of Vanessa Guthrie, the election of Kathleen Bozanic, and the grant of performance rights to CEO Amanda Lacaze. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to bolster Lynas’ strategic direction and leadership stability, reinforcing its position in the rare earths industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Outlines Strategic Vision at Annual General Meeting

Lynas Rare Earths Limited has released a presentation for its Annual General Meeting, emphasizing the company’s strategic plans and market positioning. The document highlights the company’s focus on enhancing its financial and operational performance, while also addressing potential risks and uncertainties in the industry. The presentation underscores Lynas’ commitment to maintaining its leadership in the rare earths sector, which is vital for the global supply chain of critical technologies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Concludes Growth Strategy and Launches New Ambitious Plans

Lynas Rare Earths concluded its Lynas 2025 growth strategy with significant achievements, including the completion of major projects at Kalgoorlie and Mt Weld, and the first production of dysprosium and terbium oxides in Malaysia. The company launched its Towards 2030 strategy, supported by a $930 million capital raise, to enhance its market position and expand its operations. Despite challenges like low market pricing, Lynas reported increased annual revenue and NdPr sales. The company continues to strengthen its operational footprint and engage with global governments to develop non-China rare earths supply chains.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Faces Production Challenges Due to Power Disruptions

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has announced significant power supply disruptions at its Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility, leading to substantial production losses of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC). This disruption is expected to impact the production of finished goods at Lynas’ Malaysian facility, as the shortfall in MREC feedstock cannot be compensated due to scheduled maintenance. Lynas is collaborating with the WA Government and Western Power to address the power issues and is also exploring off-grid power solutions to recover lost production within the financial year. Despite the challenges, Lynas aims to meet key customer needs with sufficient finished products.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$16.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Strengthens Position with Strong Q1 and Strategic Partnerships

Lynas Rare Earths reported a strong first quarter for FY26, with significant increases in sales revenue and REO production. The company raised $750 million through an institutional placement and a Share Purchase Plan, bolstering its balance sheet to support its growth strategy ‘Towards 2030.’ Lynas signed MoUs with Korean and U.S. companies to develop sustainable rare earth magnet supply chains, and it continues to advance its Lynas 2025 facilities. The geopolitical landscape is favorable, with new agreements signed between Australia, the U.S., Malaysia, and Japan to secure critical mineral supply chains, underscoring Lynas’s role as a key player in the non-China supply chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Hold with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.