Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 218.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: -20.07%
• EPS Growth: -74.91%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 270
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 935,446,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,767,035
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,866,502
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 56.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 111.35
• 1Y Price Target: $10.09
• Price Target Upside: -17.01% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$11.50 ▼(-5.43% Downside)

Lynas Rare Earths Limited's stock score is primarily supported by strong technical momentum, indicating bullish investor sentiment. However, financial performance is challenged by declining margins and high capital expenditures, while high valuations and external market pressures further weigh on the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Market Position

Lynas' heavy rare earth separation capabilities are progressing, marking the company as the only provider outside China, which could allow for pricing independent of China indices.

Production

Lynas achieved record NdPr production of ~2kt, outpacing estimates by 26%, ultimately generating a 2% top line beat to consensus.

Strategic Partnerships

Lynas announced a MoU with Kelantan Menteri Besar Inc for the development of rare earth deposits, complementing their own Mt Weld mine expansion.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow

Ending cash position was 4% below estimates due to weaker cash flows.

Financial Performance

Elevated costs from Kalgoorlie cannibalize margin, affecting financial performance.

Revenue

Lynas' 3Q revenues missed estimates due to a 19% reduction in overall rare earth concentrate volumes, impacted by maintenance and modifications.

Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals primarily in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds an interest in the Mount Weld project, Western Australia. Its products include yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium. The company also develops and operates advanced material processing and concentration plants. In addition, it offers corporate services. The company was formerly known as Lynas Corporation Limited and changed its name to Lynas Corporation Limited in November 2020. Lynas Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Lynas Rare Earths generates revenue primarily through the mining, processing, and sale of rare earth oxides. The company's revenue streams include the sale of key rare earth elements such as neodymium and praseodymium, which are critical for manufacturing permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other technologies. Additionally, Lynas benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements with major global manufacturers and technology companies. The company's earnings are also influenced by market demand for rare earths, geopolitical factors affecting global supply chains, and its ability to maintain efficient production processes to meet customer needs.

Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lynas Rare Earths Limited's financial performance is challenged by declining revenue and profitability, with reduced margins and significant negative cash flow due to high capital expenditures. Despite a robust balance sheet, operational inefficiencies and market challenges are evident.

Income Statement

Lynas Rare Earths Limited has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profitability over the past year. The gross profit margin decreased due to rising costs or reduced sale prices. Similarly, net profit margin and EBIT margin reflect this downturn, indicating operational inefficiencies or market challenges. However, the company exhibited strong EBITDA margins in prior years, showing potential for recovery if cost structures are optimized.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability and reduced financial risk. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a well-capitalized structure. However, the decline in return on equity (ROE) suggests challenges in generating profits from shareholders' investments. Despite this, the overall balance sheet position remains robust, providing a buffer against economic volatility.

Cash Flow

Lynas Rare Earths Limited faced substantial negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures, impacting cash resources. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation from operations is not aligning with reported earnings. However, historic positive cash flow trends suggest potential for improvement if capital expenditures are managed effectively.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	464.45M	739.28M	920.01M	506.00M	314.09M
Gross Profit	184.46M	339.39M	601.26M	266.59M	108.29M
EBITDA	172.44M	416.61M	607.80M	239.28M	62.20M
Net Income	84.51M	310.67M	540.82M	157.08M	-19.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.80B	2.64B	2.06B	1.48B	936.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	523.84M	1.01B	965.58M	680.83M	101.73M
Total Debt	183.98M	190.35M	190.46M	173.19M	201.96M
Total Liabilities	562.12M	475.27M	416.02M	394.17M	417.74M
Stockholders Equity	2.24B	2.16B	1.65B	1.08B	518.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-544.38M	-183.65M	271.16M	170.69M	15.84M
Operating Cash Flow	34.96M	411.87M	457.46M	211.14M	27.93M
Investing Cash Flow	-507.22M	-585.86M	-87.54M	-140.76M	-24.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-22.54M	205.25M	-7.26M	412.02M	9.03M

Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.60, above the 50-day MA of 9.47, and above the 200-day MA of 7.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.13 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYC.

Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LYC	65 Neutral	$11.08B	218.75	2.27%	―	-20.07%	-74.91%
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$865.14M	-6.69	-14.90%	2.77%	16.73%	-26.87%
ARAFF	―	$304.84M	―	-33.33%	―	―	―
NOURF	―	$174.11M	―	-428.37%	―	―	―
PKREF	―	$89.70M	―	-21.89%	―	―	―
ASM	47 Neutral	AU$125.18M	―	-15.33%	―	-52.53%	-27.29%
MAU	44 Neutral	AU$409.22M	―	-179.51%	―	-100.00%	-27.86%

Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events

Lynas Rare Earths Boosts Production and Expands Strategic Partnerships

Lynas Rare Earths reported a significant increase in quarterly sales revenue, reaching A$170.2 million, driven by a rise in NdPr production and the first commercial production of separated heavy rare earths outside China. The company is advancing its renewable energy initiatives and expanding its strategic partnerships, including a new MOU with JS Link for a magnet manufacturing facility in Malaysia, reflecting its commitment to enhancing supply chain resilience and supporting Malaysia’s economic development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Partners with JS Link for Malaysian Magnet Manufacturing Facility

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Korean company JS Link to develop a 3,000 tonne capacity NdFeB permanent sintered magnet manufacturing facility in Malaysia. This collaboration aims to establish a sustainable rare earth permanent magnet value chain, leveraging Lynas’ supply of rare earth materials and JS Link’s expertise in magnet manufacturing, potentially strengthening Lynas’ market position and contributing to the growth of the magnet industry in Malaysia.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths to Announce Quarterly Results and Host Briefing

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd announced that it will release its quarterly results for the period ending 30 June 2025 on 24 July 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a briefing hosted by the Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Lacaze, which will be accessible via a webcast. This update is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Sees Change in Substantial Shareholding

Lynas Rare Earths Limited has announced a change in the substantial holding of its shares, with State Street Global Advisors and its affiliates adjusting their voting power. The change in holdings reflects a shift in the voting power from 7.46% to 8.53%, indicating an increased stake in Lynas Rare Earths. This adjustment in shareholding could influence the company’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning, as State Street Global Advisors is a significant player in the financial sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Increases Stake in Lynas Rare Earths

Challenger Limited, along with its associated entities, has announced a change in its substantial holding in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The notice indicates a shift in voting power from 5.08% to 6.12%, reflecting an increase in the number of shares held. This adjustment in holdings could impact Lynas Rare Earths’ shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Expands Product Line with Terbium Oxide Production

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has announced the first production of Terbium Oxide at its advanced materials plant in Malaysia, following the recent production of Dysprosium Oxide. This development allows Lynas to supply two critical heavy rare earths required for the production of permanent magnets used in electric motors, enhancing the resilience of manufacturers’ supply chains. The company is actively engaging with customers for commercial supply arrangements, leveraging its world-class Mt Weld deposit as a reliable source of rare earth minerals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Partners with Malaysian Government for Rare Earths Supply

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Menteri Besar Inc., the investment arm of the Kelantan State Government in Malaysia, for the supply of mixed rare earths carbonate. This collaboration aims to enhance the Malaysian rare earths industry by leveraging local resources and Lynas’ expertise. The agreement is expected to bolster Lynas’ operations by providing a reliable feedstock for its Malaysian plant, particularly benefiting from the high proportion of Heavy Rare Earths in Malaysia’s ionic clay deposits, which are crucial for technologies like electric vehicles and electronics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Greencape Capital Increases Stake in Lynas Rare Earths

Greencape Capital Pty Ltd has increased its stake in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd, reflecting a change in the interests of a substantial holder. The adjustment in voting power from 5.01% to 6.11% indicates a strengthened position for Greencape Capital, potentially impacting Lynas’s shareholder dynamics and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Achieves Milestone with First Heavy Rare Earths Production

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has announced the successful production of Dysprosium Oxide at its Malaysian facility, marking a significant milestone as the first separated heavy rare earths production outside China. This development is expected to enhance supply chain resilience and provide alternative sourcing options for customers globally, reflecting the high demand for these products and positioning Lynas as a key player in the market restructuring efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Director’s Interest Changes

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced changes in the director’s interest, specifically involving Amanda Lacaze, with the grant and exercise of Employee Performance Rights and the sale of Ordinary Shares by the Morgan Lacaze Family Trust. These changes reflect adjustments in the company’s equity structure, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

Lynas Rare Earths Issues Unquoted Performance Rights

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced the issuance of 2,039,303 unquoted performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not quoted on the ASX until the restrictions end, indicating a strategic move to align employee interests with company performance.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced the quotation of 728,687 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of May 5, 2025. This move follows the cessation of transfer restrictions on securities previously issued under an employee incentive scheme, potentially impacting the company’s market liquidity and investor interest.