Lynas Rare Earths Limited (AU:LYC)
ASX:LYC
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Lynas Rare Earths
(Sydney:LYC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$21.50
▲(7.07% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven by mixed financial performance—strong balance sheet but compressed margins and weak free cash flow—offset by solid technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook supported by pricing strength and commissioning progress. A high P/E with no stated dividend yield tempers the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet / funding
A >US$1bn cash buffer materially reduces financing risk and secures funding for Towards 2030 projects (Kalgoorlie, HRE plant). This durable liquidity supports multi-year capex, de-risks delivery timelines and grants flexibility to manage working-capital volatility without urgent external capital.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow
Persistently negative free cash flow and poor cash conversion indicate the business currently needs external funding to support capex and operations. Over months this limits self-funding of growth, raises refinancing risk if markets tighten, and reduces financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet / funding
A >US$1bn cash buffer materially reduces financing risk and secures funding for Towards 2030 projects (Kalgoorlie, HRE plant). This durable liquidity supports multi-year capex, de-risks delivery timelines and grants flexibility to manage working-capital volatility without urgent external capital.
Read all positive factors
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$20.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.0
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth20.12%
EPS Growth-90.49%
CountryAU
Employees270
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding1,006,502,560
10 Day Avg. Volume5,344,711
30 Day Avg. Volume6,003,928
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.12
Price to Book (P/B)3.42
Price to Sales (P/S)14.84
P/FCF Ratio-24.65
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$19.16Price Target Upside-4.60% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.15B
Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals primarily in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds an interest in the Mount Weld proj...
How the Company Makes Money
Lynas makes money primarily by selling rare earth products derived from concentrate mined at Mt Weld and processed into separated rare earth materials (typically sold as rare earth oxides). Revenue is generated through commercial sales to customer...
Lynas Rare Earths Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive outlook: strong market fundamentals (NdPr prices up materially YoY and recently above $110/kg), successful commissioning milestones (Mt Weld expansion, Malaysia HRE separation, hybrid power station delivering ~92% renewable power in December), and a strengthened balance sheet from a capital raise (funding Towards 2030 projects including a $180m HRE plant). Challenges remain—primarily Kalgoorlie ramp-up and power reliability, higher near‑term G&A and depreciation, working capital timing, and some regulatory and supply‑chain risks—but management has concrete mitigation plans and contingency sourcing. Overall the favourable pricing environment, operational progress in Malaysia, clear capacity pathway (10.5→12k tpa and identified uplifts), and strong safety execution outweigh the operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Commissioning of Mt Weld expansion and new flotation circuit
Mt Weld expansion largely commissioned with the new flotation circuit operating at ~70% of nameplate; beneficiation upgrades enable recovery from tailings (tailings concentrated at ~7.0–7.5% rare earths) and support future throughput uplifts (previously identified +2,400 tpa potential at concentrator).
Negative Updates
Kalgoorlie ramp-up impacted by power disruptions
Kalgoorlie ramp-up hampered by external power reliability issues during the second quarter; NdPr production was 'a little bit off' record 6-month plans because of Kalgoorlie power problems and shifting bottlenecks in the carbonation/carbonation circuit.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Commissioning of Mt Weld expansion and new flotation circuit
Mt Weld expansion largely commissioned with the new flotation circuit operating at ~70% of nameplate; beneficiation upgrades enable recovery from tailings (tailings concentrated at ~7.0–7.5% rare earths) and support future throughput uplifts (previously identified +2,400 tpa potential at concentrator).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call highlighted a near‑term production build‑up (short term ~8–9k tpa NdPr due to Kalgoorlie power constraints, with a clear target to reach ~10.5k tpa — ~30 t/day — as ramp‑up continues, and a planned step to ~12k tpa longer term with a potential additional ~2.4k tpa from Mt Weld), timing for the new Heavy Rare Earths (HRE) facility in Malaysia toward end‑CY2027 (current local HRE circuit throughput ~1,500 t with the announced new Malaysian HRE plant sized for ~5,000 t throughput), strong pricing and cash tailwinds (NdPr spot: Dec‑25 US$74/kg vs US$49/kg Dec‑24 and recently >US$110/kg; provisional pricing tailwind ~US$20m), capital and cash metrics (over US$1bn+ raised and on deposit, Mt Weld expansion mostly commissioned, Kalgoorlie capex ~US$800m and Mt Weld expansion ~US$550m with ~US$1.35bn coming into operation, FY26 capex guidance previously ~US$160m, and a US$180m allocation announced for the new HRE plant), operational sustainability targets achieved or underway (65 MW hybrid power station operational, December renewables ~92% vs initial 70% target; water recycling target 90% tailings water demonstrated but not yet fully reliable), safety (Mt Weld and Kalgoorlie 12 months without recordable injuries; major Malaysian maintenance = ~100,000 work‑hours, 30+ contractors, no injuries), and commercial intent to place 100% of product outside China as downstream capacity comes online.Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 715.89M | 542.66M | 464.45M | 739.28M | 920.01M | 489.02M |
| Gross Profit | 197.47M | 179.21M | 184.46M | 325.60M | 571.63M | 179.48M |
| EBITDA | 186.19M | 116.30M | 172.44M | 416.61M | 607.80M | 239.28M |
| Net Income | 82.35M | 7.99M | 84.51M | 310.67M | 540.82M | 157.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.99B | 2.94B | 2.80B | 2.64B | 2.06B | 1.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 166.49M | 523.84M | 1.01B | 965.58M | 680.83M |
| Total Debt | 286.28M | 202.05M | 183.98M | 190.35M | 190.46M | 173.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 630.53M | 591.51M | 562.12M | 475.27M | 416.02M | 394.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.36B | 2.35B | 2.24B | 2.16B | 1.65B | 1.08B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -20.74M | -326.66M | -544.38M | -183.65M | 271.16M | 170.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 143.07M | 104.17M | 34.96M | 411.87M | 457.46M | 211.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -554.38M | -406.19M | -507.22M | -585.86M | -87.54M | -140.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 873.59M | -45.30M | -22.54M | 205.25M | -7.26M | 412.02M |
Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis
Positive
20.08
Price Trends
17.34
Positive
15.60
Positive
14.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.80
Positive
58.64
Neutral
57.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.61, above the 50-day MA of 17.34, and above the 200-day MA of 14.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYC.
Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | AU$20.21B | 38.00 | 2.88% | ― | 20.12% | -90.49% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | AU$1.26B | -16.88 | -13.10% | ― | ― | 82.10% | |
49 Neutral | AU$551.02M | -18.79 | -179.67% | ― | -100.00% | -6.00% | |
47 Neutral | AU$380.42M | -3.48 | -10.21% | ― | 2.00% | 8.82% | |
44 Neutral | AU$229.06M | -4.10 | -377.15% | ― | ― | 32.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:LYC
Lynas Rare Earths
20.08
13.17
190.59%
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0.27
0.10
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<0.01
14.29%
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1.40
1.04
288.89%
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24.33%
Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events
Lynas Malaysia Delivers First Samarium Oxide Ahead of Schedule
Mar 18, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has produced its first samarium oxide at its Malaysian plant, expanding its separated heavy rare earth product range to three oxides alongside dysprosium and terbium and reinforcing its status as the only commercial producer of s...
Lynas Secures U.S. Backed Rare Earth Supply Deal
Mar 15, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has signed a binding Letter of Intent with the U.S. Department of War for a four-year supply of light and heavy rare earth oxide products, backed by about US$96 million of U.S. government funding. The arrangement sets a floor pri...
Lynas deepens JARE partnership with MoU on rare earth exploration and growth
Mar 13, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding with Japan Australia Rare Earths to cooperate across the rare earths value chain, with a focus on mineral exploration of rare earth elements and adjacent minerals. The move bui...
Lynas Secures Extended Rare Earth Supply Pact With Japanese Partners to 2038
Mar 10, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has renewed and enhanced its long-term supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths, extending the partnership to 2038 and cementing its role as a core supplier to Japanese manufacturers. The deal includes a market-linked fl...
Lynas Wins 10-Year Renewal of Malaysian Operating Licence
Mar 1, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has secured a 10-year renewal of its operating licence for its Malaysian plant, effective from 3 March 2026, following confirmation from the Malaysian Department of Atomic Energy. The extended licence term enhances regulatory cer...
Lynas Rare Earths Issues 1H FY26 Results Overview With Strong Risk and Disclosure Emphasis
Feb 25, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Limited released its 1H FY26 results presentation dated 26 February 2026, providing high-level financial and operational information for the half year ended 31 December 2025, all in Australian dollars. The document is framed as g...
Lynas Rare Earths profit surges as Mt Weld expansion and heavy rare earth output take hold
Feb 25, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths reported a sharp turnaround in its half-year results to 31 December 2025, with net profit after tax climbing to $80.2m from $5.9m a year earlier as revenue rose to $413.7m and EBITDA quadrupled to $152.4m. Higher rare earth price...
Lynas Rare Earths Files Interim Unaudited Financial Report for Half Year 2025
Feb 25, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has released its interim unaudited consolidated financial report for the half year ended 31 December 2025, incorporating its Appendix 4D disclosure. The document provides shareholders and regulators with updated financial sta...
JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Lynas Rare Earths
Feb 19, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its related entities have notified Lynas Rare Earths that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company, following a series of transactions involving ordinary shares. The change stems from activities including ...
Lynas Grows Revenue on Strong Rare Earth Pricing Despite Production Hit and CEO Transition
Jan 20, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths reported quarterly gross sales revenue of A$201.9 million and sales receipts of A$185 million for the December 2025 quarter, with closing cash and short-term deposits of A$1.03 billion, despite total rare earth oxide production f...
Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze to Retire After 12 Years as Board Begins Search for Successor
Jan 12, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths has announced that Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Amanda Lacaze will retire after 12 years in the role, during which she oversaw the company’s transformation from a troubled startup into a top-tier ASX50 rare...
Lynas Rare Earths Sets Date for December-Quarter Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 7, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths will release its quarterly results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 21 January 2026, followed by an analyst and shareholder webcast briefing hosted by Managing Director and CEO Amanda Lacaze at midday Sydney time. The sch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.