Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$19.10B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.57M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 225.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 20.12%
• EPS Growth: -90.49%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 270
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 1,006,502,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,653,397
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,571,922
• PEG Ratio: -11.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 14.84
• P/FCF Ratio: -24.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$15.26
• Price Target Upside: -19.62% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.29
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$1.04B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$20.00 ▲(5.37% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/18/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/18/25

Lynas Rare Earths' overall score is driven by strong earnings call highlights and a solid balance sheet. However, challenges in profitability, cash flow, and high valuation metrics weigh down the score. The technical indicators suggest limited upward momentum, adding to the cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Low leverage and a robust equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital-intensive mining and processing projects. This reduces refinancing risk, supports continued investment in expansion and processing capacity, and strengthens resilience through commodity cycles.

Vertical integration across the value chain

End-to-end operations—from Mt Weld mining to Malaysian separation—allow Lynas to capture more value, secure supply for customers, and differentiate versus pure-play miners. Integration supports margin recovery potential and builds long-term commercial relationships.

Scaled production and heavy-REE capability

Record production and the first commercial separated heavy-REE output outside China materially increase Lynas' strategic scale and product mix. These durable capabilities expand addressable markets, reduce customer supply risk, and create a structural competitive advantage in magnet materials.

Negative Factors

Severe margin compression

A dramatic fall in net margin signals structural pressure from costs, product pricing, or mix shifts. Sustained low margins limit internal cash retention, reduce returns on new projects, and constrain ability to self-fund growth absent margin recovery or higher realized prices.

Weak cash generation

Negative FCF metrics show earnings are not converting to free cash, undermining funding for capex and downstream commitments. Over the medium term this increases reliance on external financing or equity issuance and raises risk if commodity prices or margins remain suppressed.

Exposure to pricing and external demand risks

Revenue and margin outlook hinge on policy-driven pricing mechanisms and growth outside China. This structural dependence creates persistent execution and demand risk, making long-term planning, contracting, and capex decisions sensitive to geopolitical and policy shifts.

Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals primarily in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds an interest in the Mount Weld project, Western Australia. Its products include yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium. The company also develops and operates advanced material processing and concentration plants. In addition, it offers corporate services. The company was formerly known as Lynas Corporation Limited and changed its name to Lynas Corporation Limited in November 2020. Lynas Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Lynas Rare Earths generates revenue primarily through the sale of rare earth oxides, which are produced from its mining operations and processing facilities. The company benefits from long-term supply agreements with various customers in key industries, including automotive, electronics, and clean energy. Additionally, Lynas has established partnerships with manufacturers and technology firms to secure stable demand for its products. The growing global demand for rare earth elements, driven by the transition to green technologies and the increasing use of electric vehicles, contributes significantly to Lynas's revenue streams. The company also explores opportunities for expanding its production capacity and diversifying its product offerings to enhance its market position and financial performance.

Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lynas Rare Earths shows promising revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but improving cash flow management and profitability margins is crucial.

Income Statement

Lynas Rare Earths has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 12.4% in the most recent year, indicating a recovery from previous declines. However, margins have significantly contracted compared to prior years, with the net profit margin dropping to 1.47% from 18.2% the previous year. This suggests challenges in maintaining profitability despite revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.086, indicating conservative leverage. The equity ratio is robust, and while return on equity has decreased to 0.34%, it remains positive, reflecting stable financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with negative free cash flow growth and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -3.14, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, suggesting operational cash generation is not fully covering net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	715.89M	542.66M	464.45M	739.28M	920.01M	489.02M
Gross Profit	197.47M	179.21M	184.46M	325.60M	571.63M	179.48M
EBITDA	186.19M	116.30M	172.44M	416.61M	607.80M	239.28M
Net Income	82.35M	7.99M	84.51M	310.67M	540.82M	157.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.99B	2.94B	2.80B	2.64B	2.06B	1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.03B	166.49M	523.84M	1.01B	965.58M	680.83M
Total Debt	286.28M	202.05M	183.98M	190.35M	190.46M	173.19M
Total Liabilities	630.53M	591.51M	562.12M	475.27M	416.02M	394.17M
Stockholders Equity	3.36B	2.35B	2.24B	2.16B	1.65B	1.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-20.74M	-326.66M	-544.38M	-183.65M	271.16M	170.69M
Operating Cash Flow	143.07M	104.17M	34.96M	411.87M	457.46M	211.14M
Investing Cash Flow	-554.38M	-406.19M	-507.22M	-585.86M	-87.54M	-140.76M
Financing Cash Flow	873.59M	-45.30M	-22.54M	205.25M	-7.26M	412.02M

Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.77, above the 50-day MA of 14.85, and above the 200-day MA of 13.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYC.

Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LYC	62 Neutral	AU$19.10B	225.68	2.92%	―	20.12%	-90.49%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ARU	54 Neutral	AU$1.21B	-61.90	-13.10%	―	―	82.10%
MAU	49 Neutral	AU$593.86M	-39.26	-179.67%	―	-100.00%	-6.00%
ASM	47 Neutral	AU$447.65M	-12.32	-12.73%	―	2.00%	8.82%
NTU	44 Neutral	AU$286.32M	-8.11	―	―	―	32.73%

Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events

Lynas Wins 10-Year Renewal of Malaysian Operating Licence

Lynas Rare Earths has secured a 10-year renewal of its operating licence for its Malaysian plant, effective from 3 March 2026, following confirmation from the Malaysian Department of Atomic Energy. The extended licence term enhances regulatory certainty for the company and underpins long-term planning for its processing operations in Malaysia.

Chief executive Amanda Lacaze said the longer licence provides greater investment certainty for Lynas and its rare earth supply chain partners and customers. The decision signals ongoing support from the Malaysian government for the rare earths industry in the country, reinforcing Lynas’s position as a key non-Chinese supplier in the global rare earths market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Hold with a A$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Issues 1H FY26 Results Overview With Strong Risk and Disclosure Emphasis

Lynas Rare Earths Limited released its 1H FY26 results presentation dated 26 February 2026, providing high-level financial and operational information for the half year ended 31 December 2025, all in Australian dollars. The document is framed as general background for shareholders and potential investors, and it emphasizes that it is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement, or investment advice and should be read alongside the company’s other ASX disclosures.

The release highlights that some financial data may be pro forma and not compliant with specific U.S. regulatory requirements, and that certain market and industry data are drawn from third-party sources that have not been independently verified by Lynas. It also contains extensive cautionary language on forward-looking statements, stressing that such statements are subject to significant risks, uncertainties, and changing assumptions, and should not be relied upon as guarantees of future performance.

Lynas underscores that actual outcomes may differ materially from any forward-looking commentary due to factors such as global economic conditions, capital market volatility, and business risks outlined in its 2025 Financial Report. The company reiterates that it is not licensed to provide financial product advice, cooling-off rights do not apply to its shares, and investors should seek their own financial, legal, and tax advice before making investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths profit surges as Mt Weld expansion and heavy rare earth output take hold

Lynas Rare Earths reported a sharp turnaround in its half-year results to 31 December 2025, with net profit after tax climbing to $80.2m from $5.9m a year earlier as revenue rose to $413.7m and EBITDA quadrupled to $152.4m. Higher rare earth prices, increased production and sales volumes, and optimisation of product mix supported performance, while cost of sales rose 32% on expanded operations and depreciation, as well as power outages and maintenance impacts.

The company completed commissioning of its Mt Weld expansion, delivered its first half-year of heavy rare earth production in Malaysia, signed initial customer contracts for dysprosium and terbium, and announced an expanded heavy rare earth separation facility to meet growing demand. A $932m equity raising strengthened the balance sheet and funds the “Towards 2030” growth strategy, reinforcing Lynas’s strategic role in an increasingly security-focused rare earth supply chain outside China and supporting further capacity and downstream development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Files Interim Unaudited Financial Report for Half Year 2025

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has released its interim unaudited consolidated financial report for the half year ended 31 December 2025, incorporating its Appendix 4D disclosure. The document provides shareholders and regulators with updated financial statements, auditor reports and notes, offering a snapshot of the company’s financial performance and position at mid-year, though no detailed financial results or strategic changes are disclosed in the text provided.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Lynas Rare Earths

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its related entities have notified Lynas Rare Earths that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company, following a series of transactions involving ordinary shares. The change stems from activities including investment management trades, securities lending, rehypothecation under prime brokerage, and principal trading by various JPMorgan subsidiaries.

The cessation of substantial holder status indicates a reduction in JPMorgan’s voting power in Lynas below the regulatory disclosure threshold. This shift may slightly alter the company’s institutional shareholder mix, though the filing provides no indication of any change to Lynas’s operations or strategic direction beyond the ownership adjustment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Grows Revenue on Strong Rare Earth Pricing Despite Production Hit and CEO Transition

Lynas Rare Earths reported quarterly gross sales revenue of A$201.9 million and sales receipts of A$185 million for the December 2025 quarter, with closing cash and short-term deposits of A$1.03 billion, despite total rare earth oxide production falling to 2,382 tonnes and NdPr output dropping about 30% from the prior quarter due to power disruptions in Kalgoorlie and planned maintenance in Malaysia. Improved pricing for NdPr, stronger benchmark prices across products, and new DyTb-linked contracts helped lift invoiced revenue slightly over the previous quarter and 43% year-on-year, while the company completed kiln maintenance in Malaysia, stabilised power in Kalgoorlie, advanced an off-grid energy solution there, finished commissioning its Mt Weld expansion and hybrid renewable power station, and began work on an expanded heavy rare earths separation circuit in Malaysia, all against the backdrop of CEO Amanda Lacaze’s planned retirement at the end of the financial year and ongoing focus on safety performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze to Retire After 12 Years as Board Begins Search for Successor

Lynas Rare Earths has announced that Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Amanda Lacaze will retire after 12 years in the role, during which she oversaw the company’s transformation from a troubled startup into a top-tier ASX50 rare earths producer. The board has launched a search for a new CEO, considering both internal and external candidates, while Lacaze will remain in place until the end of the current financial year to ensure a smooth leadership transition following the completion of the Lynas 2025 capital investment program and the launch of the company’s ‘Towards 2030’ growth strategy, providing continuity as Lynas pursues its next phase of expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Hold with a A$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Sets Date for December-Quarter Results and Investor Briefing

Lynas Rare Earths will release its quarterly results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 21 January 2026, followed by an analyst and shareholder webcast briefing hosted by Managing Director and CEO Amanda Lacaze at midday Sydney time. The scheduled update signals an upcoming disclosure of operational and financial performance at a time when rare earth supply security and market dynamics remain closely watched by investors and industry stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Director’s Share Sale to Meet Tax Liabilities

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving the sale of 329,688 ordinary shares by the Morgan Lacaze Family Trust. This transaction was conducted to meet taxation liabilities, and it resulted in a decrease in the number of shares held indirectly by the director, Amanda Lacaze. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements and may impact stakeholders’ perception of the company’s governance and financial strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.