Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 151.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: -20.07%
• EPS Growth: -74.91%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 270
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 935,446,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,008,244
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,911,961
• PEG Ratio: -3.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -17.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $7.97
• Price Target Upside: -13.92% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$9.50 ▲(2.59%Upside)

Lynas Rare Earths Limited's overall stock score reflects a mixed performance. Financial challenges and high valuation concerns are offset by positive technical indicators and optimistic future outlooks from recent earnings. The company's focus on operational efficiency and market recovery signs support moderate optimism, though financial performance remains a key risk.

Positive Factors

Market Position

Lynas' heavy rare earth separation capabilities are progressing, marking the company as the only provider outside China, which could allow for pricing independent of China indices.

Pricing and Revenue

Pricing increased 16% QoQ due to product and customer mix to $49.18/kg.

Strategic Expansion

Lynas is in discussions with the U.S. government to potentially increase its prior commitment of $300 million in grants for the Seadrift, TX planned refiner project.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow

Ending cash position was 4% below estimates due to weaker cash flows.

Market Demand

Pricing is expected to remain subdued due to ongoing weak demand in China.

Revenue Performance

Lynas' 3Q revenues missed estimates due to a 19% reduction in overall rare earth concentrate volumes, impacted by maintenance and modifications.

Lynas Rare Earths Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYC) is a leading integrated producer of rare earths, operating primarily in the mining and processing sectors. The company is headquartered in Australia and engages in the extraction and refining of rare earth elements, which are critical components in various high-tech and green technology applications. Lynas is recognized for its significant resources and capabilities in producing essential materials like neodymium, praseodymium, and other rare earth products that are pivotal for the development of electronics, automotive, and renewable energy industries.

How the Company Makes Money

Lynas Rare Earths Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of rare earth materials extracted from its mining operations and processed through its advanced refining facilities. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of rare earth oxides, which are utilized in the manufacturing of permanent magnets, catalysts, and other high-tech applications. Lynas benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with major industrial clients who require reliable supplies of rare earth materials for their products. Additionally, the company's earnings are influenced by global demand for rare earth elements, fluctuations in market prices, and its operational efficiency in mining and processing activities.

Lynas Rare Earths Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lynas Rare Earths Limited is experiencing challenges in revenue growth and profitability, with declining margins reflected in the income statement. However, the balance sheet remains strong with low leverage, and cash flow concerns are mainly due to high capital expenditures. The company should focus on cost management to improve financial performance.

Income Statement

Lynas Rare Earths Limited has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profitability over the past year. The gross profit margin decreased due to rising costs or reduced sale prices. Similarly, net profit margin and EBIT margin reflect this downturn, indicating operational inefficiencies or market challenges. However, the company exhibited strong EBITDA margins in prior years, showing potential for recovery if cost structures are optimized.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability and reduced financial risk. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a well-capitalized structure. However, the decline in return on equity (ROE) suggests challenges in generating profits from shareholders' investments. Despite this, the overall balance sheet position remains robust, providing a buffer against economic volatility.

Cash Flow

Lynas Rare Earths Limited faced substantial negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures, impacting cash resources. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation from operations is not aligning with reported earnings. However, historic positive cash flow trends suggest potential for improvement if capital expenditures are managed effectively.

Breakdown
TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
482.82M	464.45M	739.28M	920.01M	489.02M	305.11M
	Gross Profit
105.94M	184.46M	325.60M	563.54M	179.48M	30.10M
	EBIT
45.62M	72.42M	279.82M	524.68M	155.29M	-13.40M
	EBITDA
53.27M	172.44M	416.61M	607.80M	239.28M	70.43M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
50.83M	84.51M	310.67M	540.82M	157.08M	-19.39M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
308.31M	523.84M	1.01B	965.58M	680.83M	101.73M
	Total Assets
2.92B	2.80B	2.64B	2.06B	1.48B	936.13M
	Total Debt
196.15M	183.98M	190.35M	190.46M	173.19M	201.96M
	Net Debt
-112.17M	-339.86M	-820.86M	-775.12M	-407.63M	100.23M
	Total Liabilities
570.85M	562.12M	475.27M	416.02M	394.17M	417.74M
	Stockholders Equity
2.35B	2.24B	2.16B	1.65B	1.08B	518.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-420.46M	-544.38M	-183.65M	271.16M	170.69M	15.84M
	Operating Cash Flow
79.01M	34.96M	411.87M	457.46M	211.14M	27.93M
	Investing Cash Flow
-439.94M	-507.22M	-585.86M	-87.54M	-140.76M	-24.65M
	Financing Cash Flow
-36.38M	-22.54M	205.25M	-7.26M	412.02M	9.03M

Lynas Rare Earths Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.88, above the 50-day MA of 7.87, and above the 200-day MA of 7.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYC.

Lynas Rare Earths Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LYC	60 Neutral	$7.46B	151.29	2.27%	―	-20.07%	-74.91%
MAU	56 Neutral	AU$477.65M	―	-179.51%	―	-100.00%	-27.86%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.02B	-1.12	-21.36%	3.65%	2.87%	-30.54%
ARU	46 Neutral	$406.61M	―	-33.33%	―	―	65.19%
ASM	45 Neutral	AU$89.76M	―	-15.33%	―	-52.53%	-27.29%
NTU	43 Neutral	$217.29M	―	-428.37%	―	―	3.70%
PEK	34 Underperform	$117.43M	―	-21.89%	―	―	71.67%

Lynas Rare Earths Corporate Events

Lynas Rare Earths Partners with Malaysian Government for Rare Earths Supply

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Menteri Besar Inc., the investment arm of the Kelantan State Government in Malaysia, for the supply of mixed rare earths carbonate. This collaboration aims to enhance the Malaysian rare earths industry by leveraging local resources and Lynas’ expertise. The agreement is expected to bolster Lynas’ operations by providing a reliable feedstock for its Malaysian plant, particularly benefiting from the high proportion of Heavy Rare Earths in Malaysia’s ionic clay deposits, which are crucial for technologies like electric vehicles and electronics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Greencape Capital Increases Stake in Lynas Rare Earths

Greencape Capital Pty Ltd has increased its stake in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd, reflecting a change in the interests of a substantial holder. The adjustment in voting power from 5.01% to 6.11% indicates a strengthened position for Greencape Capital, potentially impacting Lynas’s shareholder dynamics and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Achieves Milestone with First Heavy Rare Earths Production

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd has announced the successful production of Dysprosium Oxide at its Malaysian facility, marking a significant milestone as the first separated heavy rare earths production outside China. This development is expected to enhance supply chain resilience and provide alternative sourcing options for customers globally, reflecting the high demand for these products and positioning Lynas as a key player in the market restructuring efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LYC) stock is a Buy with a A$7.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lynas Rare Earths stock, see the AU:LYC Stock Forecast page.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Director’s Interest Changes

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced changes in the director’s interest, specifically involving Amanda Lacaze, with the grant and exercise of Employee Performance Rights and the sale of Ordinary Shares by the Morgan Lacaze Family Trust. These changes reflect adjustments in the company’s equity structure, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

Lynas Rare Earths Issues Unquoted Performance Rights

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced the issuance of 2,039,303 unquoted performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not quoted on the ASX until the restrictions end, indicating a strategic move to align employee interests with company performance.

Lynas Rare Earths Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced the quotation of 728,687 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of May 5, 2025. This move follows the cessation of transfer restrictions on securities previously issued under an employee incentive scheme, potentially impacting the company’s market liquidity and investor interest.

Lynas Rare Earths Advances Heavy Rare Earth Production Amid Global Market Shifts

Lynas Rare Earths Limited has commenced commissioning a new Heavy Rare Earth separation circuit, producing Holmium concentrate and beginning Dysprosium separation, with first production expected in May. This positions Lynas as the only commercial producer of separated Heavy Rare Earth products outside China, amid global trade shifts affecting rare earth markets. The company reported quarterly sales revenue of A$123.0 million, with ongoing projects to meet a target production of 10.5kt/annum. Lynas is also progressing on its U.S. project, addressing wastewater management challenges, and engaging with the U.S. Government on additional CAPEX requirements.

Lynas Rare Earths to Announce Quarterly Results on April 28

Lynas Rare Earths Limited announced that it will release its quarterly results for the period ending 31 March 2025 on 28 April 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a briefing hosted by the company’s CEO, Amanda Lacaze, which will be webcast for analysts and shareholders. This release is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

AustralianSuper Increases Stake in Lynas Rare Earths

AustralianSuper Pty Ltd has increased its voting power in Lynas Rare Earths Limited from 8.50% to 9.51%, indicating a growing interest and stake in the company. This change in substantial holding could impact Lynas’ market positioning and influence shareholder decisions, reflecting AustralianSuper’s confidence in the company’s future prospects.