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Lincoln Minerals Limited (AU:LML)
ASX:LML
Australian Market

Lincoln Minerals Limited (LML) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:LML

Lincoln Minerals Limited

(Sydney:LML)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.01
▲(40.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (minimal revenue scale, persistent losses, and ongoing cash burn). Technicals provide only modest support with mixed momentum signals, while valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no indicated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low leverage
A very low debt profile materially reduces refinancing and interest-rate exposure for an exploration company. That structural strength gives management flexibility to pursue drilling and evaluation activities without immediate solvency pressure, preserving optionality during long project timelines.
High project-level gross margin
A near-100% gross margin on FY2025 sales implies attractive unit economics at the project or sale level. If sustained and scaled, this suggests underlying resource economics can support profitable operations once operating overheads and development costs are controlled.
Improving cash dynamics
Year-over-year improvement in operating cash outflow and a free cash flow loss smaller than accounting loss indicate narrowing cash burn. This structural improvement extends runway, reduces near-term financing urgency, and signals management can improve spending efficiency over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Chronic negative operating and free cash flow forces reliance on external capital to fund exploration and working capital. Over a multi-quarter horizon this raises dilution and execution risk, constraining ability to advance projects without recurring financings.
Minimal, volatile revenue
Very small and inconsistent revenue indicates the business has not reached scalable commercial operations. That structural lack of recurring sales undermines fixed-cost coverage, makes margin forecasting unreliable, and prolongs dependency on capital markets for development.
Deep losses and equity erosion
Sustained negative returns and declining equity reflect ongoing losses and likely dilution from funding rounds. Over months this weakens shareholder value, increases the probability of further capital raises, and can limit strategic options if financing conditions tighten.

Lincoln Minerals Limited (LML) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Lincoln Minerals Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLincoln Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for graphite, copper, gold, iron ore, magnetite, hematite, zinc, lead, and silver deposits. Its flagship project is the Kookaburra Gully graphite project located on the Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. The company was incorporated in 1974 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyLincoln Minerals Limited generates revenue through the exploration and eventual development of mineral resources, particularly graphite and iron ore. The company aims to progress its projects from exploration to development and production, thereby creating value through the sale of extracted minerals. LML's primary revenue streams are expected to come from the sale of mined graphite and iron ore. Additionally, the company may engage in joint ventures, partnerships, or sales of mining rights to other mining companies as a means of monetizing its assets. Significant partnerships with other resource companies or investors could also contribute to its earnings by providing necessary funding or strategic opportunities to advance its projects toward commercial production.

Lincoln Minerals Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall fundamentals are weak: revenue is minimal/volatile, profitability is deeply negative, and both operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently negative. The main offset is a relatively low-leverage balance sheet, which reduces near-term financial risk but does not resolve ongoing funding needs.
Income Statement
22
Negative
Revenue is highly volatile and remains very small in absolute terms (A$0 in FY2023–FY2024, then A$0.6M in FY2025), indicating an early-stage or non-scaled operating base. Profitability is consistently weak: EBIT and net income are meaningfully negative across all periods, with FY2025 net margin still deeply negative (about -379%) despite the revenue rebound. A key positive is strong gross profit in FY2025 (gross margin ~100%), but operating costs continue to overwhelm gross profit, keeping earnings firmly loss-making.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Leverage is low, which reduces financial risk (FY2025 debt-to-equity ~0.05; several prior years show no debt). However, shareholder returns are consistently negative, reflecting ongoing losses (return on equity is roughly -33% to -51% in recent years). Equity has also trended down from FY2024 to FY2025, consistent with continued burn and value dilution risk if losses persist.
Cash Flow
28
Negative
Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow is negative every year, and free cash flow is also consistently negative (FY2025 free cash flow about -A$2.47M). While FY2025 operating cash outflow improved versus FY2024, the business still requires external funding to sustain operations. A relative positive is that free cash flow is less negative than net loss in recent years (cash losses not worse than accounting losses), but the overall cash trajectory remains pressured.
BreakdownJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue601.72K0.000.005.46K55.01K
Gross Profit601.72K-951.00-1.91K3.77K54.70K
EBITDA-870.82K-1.57M-3.61M-2.02M-909.23K
Net Income-2.28M-2.69M-3.61M-2.03M-744.64K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.99M8.53M7.15M5.99M7.53M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments662.94K2.57M1.16M42.12K122.77K
Total Debt294.86K0.000.00510.00K0.00
Total Liabilities558.38K345.88K117.79K737.30K257.40K
Stockholders Equity6.43M8.19M7.04M5.25M7.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.47M-2.43M-2.73M-646.92K-856.03K
Operating Cash Flow-1.06M-1.34M-2.15M-494.28K-634.63K
Investing Cash Flow-1.41M-1.09M-576.81K-18.36K-195.15K
Financing Cash Flow515.83K3.84M3.85M510.00K0.00

Lincoln Minerals Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
49
Neutral
AU$17.14M-7.27-6.61%
48
Neutral
AU$15.88M-2.21-127.11%10.34%
46
Neutral
AU$36.41M-12.73-31.20%26.67%
45
Neutral
AU$15.65M-5.81-14.33%
42
Neutral
AU$11.52M-6.0093.44%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:LML
Lincoln Minerals Limited
0.01
<0.01
27.27%
AU:BUX
Buxton Resources Limited
0.05
0.02
53.33%
AU:AMU
GTI Resources Ltd
0.16
0.04
33.33%
AU:AKO
Akora Resources Ltd.
0.09
-0.03
-26.83%
AU:RWD
Reward Minerals Limited
0.04
>-0.01
-17.65%

Lincoln Minerals Limited Corporate Events

Lincoln Minerals seeks quotation for small tranche of new ASX shares
Feb 27, 2026

Lincoln Minerals Limited has applied for quotation of a small allotment of new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, covering 313 securities issued on 27 February 2026. The modest scale of this issuance suggests a routine administrative or technical adjustment to the company’s capital structure, with limited immediate impact expected on its overall market position or existing shareholders.

The application under the ASX Appendix 2A framework formalises the listing of these additional securities, ensuring they are eligible for trading alongside the company’s existing shares. While not a transformational capital raising, the move maintains transparency in Lincoln Minerals’ equity register and reflects adherence to ongoing listing and disclosure obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Feb 20, 2026

Lincoln Minerals Limited, an Australian mining and exploration company listed on the ASX under code LML, continues to expand its capital base through equity issuance. The company has applied for quotation of an additional 357,143 ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, a move that marginally increases its listed share count and may provide incremental funding capacity and liquidity for investors.

The new securities, issued on 20 February 2026, represent a small but notable addition to Lincoln Minerals’ capital structure. While the announcement provides limited operational detail, the expanded share quotation underscores the company’s ongoing use of equity markets to support its corporate and project needs, with potential implications for existing shareholder dilution and trading volumes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Seeks ASX Quotation for Nearly 7 Million New Shares
Feb 6, 2026

Lincoln Minerals Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 6,973,549 new fully paid ordinary shares under the code LML, with an issue date of 6 February 2026. The quotation of these additional securities, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing instruments, marginally expands the company’s listed share capital and may provide incremental funding flexibility, altering the equity base and potentially affecting existing shareholders’ dilution and the company’s capacity to advance its resource projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Tightens ASX Compliance as It Sharpens Copper-Focused Growth Strategy
Feb 5, 2026

Lincoln Minerals Limited has released an amended version of its December 2025 Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report to address ASX Listing Rule compliance, while highlighting a refreshed leadership team and a strategic shift to becoming a discovery-focused copper company centred on its Minbrie project in South Australia. During the quarter, the company advanced stakeholder engagement and exploration planning for drilling at Minbrie in the first half of 2026, entered a collaboration agreement to explore the use of graphite from its Kookaburra project in small modular nuclear reactors, signed an MOU for a potential joint venture to develop an iron ore pellet plant on the Eyre Peninsula, and ended the period with $1.5 million in cash and no debt, underscoring its efforts to unlock value from its asset base while sharpening its copper-focused growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 2 Million New Shares
Feb 3, 2026

Lincoln Minerals Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 2,072,029 new fully paid ordinary shares, following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The additional shares modestly expand the company’s quoted capital base and signal ongoing utilisation of equity-linked instruments by investors, with potential implications for shareholder dilution and future capital management strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Updates Market on Historic High-Grade Copper Targets at Southern Eyre
Feb 2, 2026

Lincoln Minerals has amended a recent announcement on high-grade copper targets at its Southern Eyre Project in South Australia to include additional historic exploration data from work undertaken by Helix Resources in 1988–89. The review of historic data identified 41 rock chip samples grading up to 11.1% copper and 0.6 g/t gold in a geological setting similar to the company’s Minbrie Project, although the company stresses these historic results are not compliant with the JORC 2012 code and have not been independently validated. Lincoln is refining its 2026 exploration programs, with immediate efforts concentrated on drilling planned for Q4 FY26 at Minbrie, where it controls a 20 km corridor prospective for copper and base metals, while the newly recognised copper potential at Southern Eyre underscores the underexplored nature of the region for copper and base metals beyond its prior focus on iron ore and graphite.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Refocuses on Copper Discovery as Minbrie Drilling Plans Advance
Jan 30, 2026

Lincoln Minerals Limited has refreshed its leadership and updated its corporate strategy to become a discovery-focused copper company, concentrating on advancing the Minbrie Project in South Australia where it controls 17km of copper- and base metals–prospective stratigraphy. The company is progressing permitting and land access for a drilling program targeted to begin in the first half of 2026, while simultaneously pursuing value-adding partnerships for its non-core assets through a collaboration to explore using graphite from the Kookaburra Project in small modular nuclear reactors and a memorandum of understanding for a potential joint venture iron ore pellet plant on the Eyre Peninsula, ending the quarter with $1.5 million in cash and no debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Sell with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Uncovers Historic High-Grade Copper Targets at Southern Eyre Project
Jan 22, 2026

Lincoln Minerals has identified historic high-grade copper and gold targets at its Southern Eyre Project in South Australia, following a review prompted by earlier copper discoveries at its Minbrie Project. The company’s reassessment of historical work, including exploration from the late 1980s, located 41 rock chip samples with copper grades up to 11.1% and associated gold, clustered along key structures such as the Kalinjala Shear Zone and near the Donington Granite intrusive. With the area previously underexplored for copper due to past focus on iron ore and graphite, Lincoln sees strengthened copper and gold prospectivity across the Eyre Peninsula and plans to concentrate immediate exploration at Minbrie, where it controls a 20km corridor of prospective ground, while fine-tuning its 2026 programs to test extensions at Minbrie and the newly identified Southern Eyre copper targets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LML) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:LML Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln Minerals Plans Share Placement of Up to 3.7 Million Shares
Dec 23, 2025

Lincoln Minerals Limited has announced a proposed issue of up to 3,725,000 ordinary fully paid shares via a placement or similar capital-raising mechanism, with an expected issue date of 7 January 2026. The move signals an intention to bolster the company’s capital base, potentially providing additional funding for its ongoing exploration and development activities and reinforcing its financial flexibility within the competitive resources sector, though specific use of proceeds was not disclosed.

Lincoln Minerals appoints new company secretary and shifts registered office to HLB Mann Judd
Dec 19, 2025

Lincoln Minerals Limited has appointed Jake van der Hoek as Company Secretary, with immediate effect, replacing outgoing Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary Andrew Metcalfe, who will assist with a smooth transition. Van der Hoek, a director at HLB Mann Judd with extensive experience in ASX-listed corporate governance and compliance, will also be responsible for communication with the ASX, and the company has aligned its registered office and principal place of business with HLB Mann Judd’s Dulwich, South Australia address, signalling a closer integration of corporate secretarial and administrative functions that may streamline regulatory and operational oversight.

Lincoln Minerals Partners with Revera Energy for Green Iron Production
Dec 7, 2025

Lincoln Minerals Limited has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Revera Energy to explore a joint venture for developing a direct reduced iron pellet plant on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula. This collaboration aims to utilize green hydrogen from Revera’s Cape Hardy Green Hydrogen Project as an alternative fuel, potentially enhancing Lincoln’s market positioning by leveraging sustainable energy solutions and creating shareholder value without diverting focus from its Minbrie Copper Project.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 06, 2026