Latrobe Magnesium Limited (LMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$68.81M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 59.26%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 3,127,817,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,294,508
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,924,277
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.02 ▲(0.00% Upside)

The score is primarily constrained by ongoing losses (negative earnings driving a weak valuation signal). Financial stability is partially supported by improving leverage and better recent cash flow, while technicals show an uptrend but with overbought risk and mixed momentum.

Positive Factors

Improving leverage and larger equity base

A materially larger equity base and a drop in debt-to-equity to ~0.16 improves financial resilience. This structurally lowers refinancing and default risk, gives management more runway to fund project build-out, and increases flexibility for capex or partnerships over months ahead.

Positive operating and free cash flow traction

Consecutive positive operating cash flows and a shift to positive free cash flow mark a durable improvement in cash generation. Sustained cash conversion reduces reliance on external funding, supports ongoing project development, and enhances liquidity resilience over the medium term.

Initial commercial revenue and implied gross profitability

The FY2025 revenue ramp and implied gross profit indicate the fly-ash magnesium production process can generate product sales at potentially viable unit economics. If sustained, this provides a foundation for scale, margin improvement and a transition from development to commercial operations.

Negative Factors

Persistent operating losses and negative margins

Ongoing negative EBIT/EBITDA and deep net losses show the business has not yet converted early revenues into profitability. Continued losses can erode equity, limit reinvestment, and require external funding until scale or cost reductions sustainably improve margins.

Volatile cash flow performance

Marked year-to-year swings in operating and free cash flow increase execution risk. Volatility complicates capital allocation, makes multi-period project funding harder without external financing, and raises the chance of shortfalls during downturns or project delays.

Negative returns on equity

Persistently negative ROE despite equity growth signals that invested capital has not produced economic returns. This structural issue questions project economics and management effectiveness, and sustaining shareholder value will require reversing this trend through profitable operations.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Latrobe Magnesium Limited engages in developing a magnesium production plant for the extraction of magnesium metal from fly ash resource in Germany. It holds interests in the Latrobe magnesium project located in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Latrobe Magnesium Limited makes money by producing and selling magnesium metal, primarily targeting industries that require lightweight materials. The company's revenue model is based on extracting magnesium from industrial waste, particularly fly ash from brown coal power plants, utilizing its proprietary environmentally friendly hydromet technology. This process not only provides a cost-effective method of magnesium production but also offers an environmentally sustainable solution by recycling waste materials. LMG's earnings are driven by the sale of magnesium metal and potentially other by-products generated during the production process. The company may also benefit from partnerships with industries and manufacturers that require magnesium for their products, enhancing its market reach and revenue potential.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile is early-stage and not yet profitable: the income statement shows persistent operating and net losses despite a FY2025 revenue ramp and implied gross profitability. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is relatively supportive with modest and improving leverage, and cash flow has recently improved with positive operating cash flow (FY2024–FY2025) and positive free cash flow in FY2025, though volatility remains.

Income Statement

The company is still in a loss-making phase. While FY2025 shows the first meaningful revenue base (about 2.7M) and strong implied gross profitability in that period, operating losses remain significant (negative EBIT and EBITDA) and the net margin is deeply negative. Losses have persisted across most years shown, indicating profitability is not yet established and earnings quality remains weak despite the revenue ramp in FY2025.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks comparatively supportive: leverage is modest with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.16 in FY2025 (down from higher levels earlier, including ~0.58 in FY2023 and ~0.93 in FY2020). Equity has grown materially over time, providing a larger cushion. The key weakness is that returns remain negative (ROE is negative in recent years), meaning the capital base has not yet translated into sustainable profits.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved versus earlier years: operating cash flow is positive in FY2024 and FY2025, and free cash flow turned positive in FY2025 after heavy negative free cash flow in FY2022–FY2024. However, cash flow remains volatile year-to-year, and free cash flow growth is sharply negative in FY2025 (reflecting a major swing versus the prior year). Overall, liquidity appears better than the income statement suggests, but consistency is still a risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	2.73M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	2.73M	2.73M	-41.68K	-55.28K	-199.00K	-136.00K
EBITDA	-3.26M	-2.46M	-5.36M	-4.26M	-2.99M	-1.32M
Net Income	-2.66M	-2.66M	-4.74M	-2.44M	-3.21M	120.26K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	92.50M	92.50M	95.40M	62.47M	37.39M	12.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.42M	2.42M	565.15K	6.89M	15.25M	954.25K
Total Debt	7.79M	7.79M	13.86M	15.37M	5.59M	698.40K
Total Liabilities	43.84M	43.84M	53.78M	36.16M	14.68M	8.15M
Stockholders Equity	48.67M	48.67M	41.63M	26.31M	22.71M	4.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.93K	1.91M	-15.85M	-22.31M	-9.42M	4.53M
Operating Cash Flow	8.10K	8.10M	11.50M	-4.31M	-3.74M	5.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.24M	-6.24M	-16.98M	-18.04M	-5.69M	-1.54M
Financing Cash Flow	6.24K	6.24K	-854.18K	13.99M	23.72M	-3.43M

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.02
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.02, below the 50-day MA of 0.02, and above the 200-day MA of 0.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -6.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LMG.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
COD	54 Neutral	AU$66.96M	-10.94	-19.61%	―	―	42.65%
VMC	52 Neutral	AU$42.48M	3.79	-0.34%	―	―	-100.38%
BCA	50 Neutral	AU$61.24M	98.68	4.75%	―	―	―
LMG	49 Neutral	AU$68.81M	-18.18	-5.89%	―	―	59.26%
SHN	46 Neutral	AU$100.53M	-31.54	-15.05%	―	―	76.36%
WCE	34 Underperform	AU$87.68M	-4.74	-440.50%	―	―	-61.06%

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Corporate Events

Latrobe Magnesium Options Lapse, Trimming Potential Future Dilution

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 3,000,000 listed options (LMGAE), which expired unexercised on 5 January 2026, having carried an exercise price of $0.10 and an original expiry date of 22 December 2025. The expiry of these options without conversion marginally reduces the company’s potential future share dilution and clarifies its capital structure for investors, but does not involve any immediate cash inflow or operational change for the business.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LMG) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Latrobe Magnesium Limited stock, see the AU:LMG Stock Forecast page.

Latrobe Magnesium Secures Export Finance Australia Support for Stage 2 Magnesium Plant

Latrobe Magnesium has received a non-binding and conditional Letter of Support from Export Finance Australia, indicating potential participation in financing its planned 10,000 tonne-per-annum Stage 2 commercial magnesium plant in Victoria, alongside a previously announced non-binding Letter of Interest from the US Export-Import Bank for up to A$200 million in debt. The company plans to appoint Bechtel to complete a bankable feasibility study within nine months, is seeking A$200 million in debt and A$50 million in equity, and has already allocated 100% of the plant’s output under an offtake agreement for the US market, underscoring its role in diversifying Western supply of a critical mineral currently dominated by China and Russia and strengthening its strategic positioning in the US–Australia critical minerals partnership.

Latrobe Magnesium Uses $6.29m R&D Rebate to Cut Debt as Asset Sales Loom

Latrobe Magnesium has received a $6.29 million research and development tax incentive from the Australian Taxation Office, which it has applied directly to reduce its debt to financier RnD Funding, cutting the outstanding balance on its R&D facility to about $2.6 million. The company expects to clear this remaining liability through the planned sale of two surplus property lots for a combined $2.8 million, while also flagging a dispute over a lease extension with RnD that remains under negotiation and has been disclosed as a contingent liability, developments that collectively improve its near‑term funding position as it advances commissioning of its magnesium demonstration plant and longer-term expansion plans.

Latrobe Magnesium Updates Mediation Process Amid Expansion Plans

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has provided an update on its ongoing mediation process with Mincore Pty Ltd, emphasizing its commitment to the process without commenting on the potential outcomes. This development is part of LMG’s broader strategy to advance its magnesium production capabilities, which includes the commissioning of a Demonstration Plant and plans for larger-scale operations in Australia and Malaysia. The company’s focus on recycling industrial waste and reducing CO2 emissions positions it as a leader in environmentally sustainable practices within the magnesium industry.

Latrobe Magnesium Restarts Demonstration Plant with Enhanced Reliability

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has successfully addressed a mechanical defect in its Stage 1 Demonstration Plant in Hazelwood North, which temporarily halted operations. The issue was traced to a manufacturing defect in the Spray Roaster gas transport fan, and corrective measures have been implemented with the help of various technical stakeholders. The plant has now resumed operations, with improvements made to ensure long-term reliability and efficiency. The company is also exploring new materials for future projects to reduce maintenance complexity. These developments are expected to strengthen Latrobe Magnesium’s operational capabilities and support its market positioning as it aims for continuous MgO production and future sales.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the quotation of 3,491,979 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of December 5, 2025. This move is part of previously announced transactions and may enhance the company’s liquidity and market positioning, potentially benefiting stakeholders by increasing the company’s capital base and visibility in the market.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the application for the quotation of 2,000,000 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move follows the approval of the Employee Acquisition Plan by security holders in the 2021 Annual General Meeting. The issuance of these securities is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its market presence and operational capabilities, potentially impacting its industry positioning and stakeholder interests.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Proposed Securities Issue

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced a proposed issue of 3,491,979 ordinary fully paid securities, as part of a placement or other type of issue. This move is expected to enhance the company’s financial resources, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning by providing additional capital to support its strategic initiatives.

Latrobe Magnesium Director Increases Stake Amidst Equity Raising

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with David Oliver Paterson acquiring an additional 26,261,363 fully paid ordinary shares. This acquisition was part of a company equity raising initiative, which received shareholder approval at the recent Annual General Meeting. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s financial position and potentially enhance its market presence.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Issues 50 Million New Shares

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the issuance of 50,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares, which will be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code LMG. This move is part of previously announced transactions and is expected to enhance the company’s capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and providing opportunities for stakeholders.

Latrobe Magnesium Issues New Unquoted Securities to Bolster Growth

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the issuance of 42,626,655 unquoted securities with an option expiring on November 12, 2027, at an exercise price of $0.046. This issuance is part of a previously announced transaction, reflecting the company’s strategic financial maneuvers to support its operations and growth within the magnesium production sector.

Latrobe Magnesium Director Increases Stake Through Entitlement Offer

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest in securities. David Oliver Paterson, a director of the company, has increased his holdings through the company’s entitlement offer to shareholders, acquiring additional shares both directly and indirectly. This move reflects a strategic decision to consolidate his stake in the company, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects and stability.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the quotation of 32,533,354 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of a previously announced transaction, and it signifies an important step in the company’s growth strategy, potentially enhancing its market presence and investor interest.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the quotation of 143,102,768 ordinary fully paid securities on the ASX, effective November 11, 2025. This move is part of previously announced transactions and is expected to enhance the company’s market presence and liquidity, potentially benefiting stakeholders by increasing the availability of its securities for trading.

Latrobe Magnesium Raises $4 Million Through Entitlement Offer

Latrobe Magnesium Limited announced the results of its recent Entitlement Offer, raising approximately $4 million. The offer resulted in a shortfall, which will be covered by the underwriter, Shaw and Partners. The new shares are scheduled to commence trading on the ASX on 12 November 2025, with settlement and allotment processes outlined for the coming days.