Latrobe Magnesium Limited (LMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$56.30M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.40
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 59.26%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 3,127,817,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,294,508
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,924,277
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.02 ▼(-10.00% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is primarily constrained by ongoing operating/net losses and weak earnings quality despite improving cash flow and a relatively supportive balance sheet. Technical indicators add further pressure, with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is difficult to assess given negative earnings and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Supportive balance sheet / lower leverage

Debt-to-equity improving to ~0.16 and material equity growth give Latrobe Magnesium greater financial flexibility to fund project development and survive cyclical stress. Lower leverage reduces refinancing risk, enables access to credit on better terms and limits short-term liquidity strain during commercialization.

Improving cash generation

Positive operating cash flow in FY2024–FY2025 and a return to positive free cash flow in FY2025 indicate operational traction. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external funding, supports incremental capex and working capital needs, and is a key enabler for scaling magnesium production if trends persist.

Low-cost feedstock business model (fly ash)

Using fly ash as feedstock is a structural advantage: it can lower raw-material costs versus conventional magnesium routes and convert waste into value. This business model supports potentially higher gross margins, sustainability credentials, and long-term competitiveness if feedstock access and processing economics remain stable.

Negative Factors

Persistent losses and negative margins

Despite early revenue, Latrobe Magnesium remains loss-making with significant negative EBIT/EBITDA and deeply negative net margins. Persistent operating losses erode returns on invested capital, increase the need for ongoing financing, and mean the business has not yet proven it can sustainably convert production into profitable operations.

Volatile cash flows and uneven FCF

While cash flow recently improved, year-to-year volatility and a sharp swing in free cash flow growth create execution risk. Inconsistent cash generation complicates capital planning, raises the likelihood of interim funding needs during scale-up, and can delay investments required to fully commercialise the process.

Negative returns / weak earnings quality

Negative ROE and weak earnings quality indicate the company’s equity base has not translated into profitable operations. Continued negative returns suggest capital is not being deployed efficiently, increasing investor risk and the probability of future dilution or restructuring to achieve acceptable returns.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Latrobe Magnesium Limited engages in developing a magnesium production plant for the extraction of magnesium metal from fly ash resource in Germany. It holds interests in the Latrobe magnesium project located in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Latrobe Magnesium Limited makes money by producing and selling magnesium metal, primarily targeting industries that require lightweight materials. The company's revenue model is based on extracting magnesium from industrial waste, particularly fly ash from brown coal power plants, utilizing its proprietary environmentally friendly hydromet technology. This process not only provides a cost-effective method of magnesium production but also offers an environmentally sustainable solution by recycling waste materials. LMG's earnings are driven by the sale of magnesium metal and potentially other by-products generated during the production process. The company may also benefit from partnerships with industries and manufacturers that require magnesium for their products, enhancing its market reach and revenue potential.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect an early-stage profile: meaningful revenue is emerging and cash flow has recently improved (positive operating cash flow in FY2024–FY2025 and positive free cash flow in FY2025). However, the company remains loss-making with deeply negative margins and negative returns, which materially limits the score despite a comparatively supportive balance sheet and modest leverage.

Income Statement

The company is still in a loss-making phase. While FY2025 shows the first meaningful revenue base (about 2.7M) and strong implied gross profitability in that period, operating losses remain significant (negative EBIT and EBITDA) and the net margin is deeply negative. Losses have persisted across most years shown, indicating profitability is not yet established and earnings quality remains weak despite the revenue ramp in FY2025.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks comparatively supportive: leverage is modest with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.16 in FY2025 (down from higher levels earlier, including ~0.58 in FY2023 and ~0.93 in FY2020). Equity has grown materially over time, providing a larger cushion. The key weakness is that returns remain negative (ROE is negative in recent years), meaning the capital base has not yet translated into sustainable profits.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved versus earlier years: operating cash flow is positive in FY2024 and FY2025, and free cash flow turned positive in FY2025 after heavy negative free cash flow in FY2022–FY2024. However, cash flow remains volatile year-to-year, and free cash flow growth is sharply negative in FY2025 (reflecting a major swing versus the prior year). Overall, liquidity appears better than the income statement suggests, but consistency is still a risk.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.73M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	2.73M	-41.68K	-55.28K	-199.00K	-136.00K
EBITDA	-2.46M	-5.36M	-4.26M	-2.99M	-1.32M
Net Income	-2.66M	-4.74M	-2.44M	-3.21M	120.26K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	92.50M	95.40M	62.47M	37.39M	12.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.42M	565.15K	6.89M	15.25M	954.25K
Total Debt	7.79M	13.86M	15.37M	5.59M	698.40K
Total Liabilities	43.84M	53.78M	36.16M	14.68M	8.15M
Stockholders Equity	48.67M	41.63M	26.31M	22.71M	4.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.91M	-15.85M	-22.31M	-9.42M	4.53M
Operating Cash Flow	8.10M	11.50M	-4.31M	-3.74M	5.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.24M	-16.98M	-18.04M	-5.69M	-1.54M
Financing Cash Flow	6.24K	-854.18K	13.99M	23.72M	-3.43M

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.02
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.02 is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.02, below the 50-day MA of 0.02, and below the 200-day MA of 0.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LMG.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
COD	54 Neutral	AU$70.68M	-2.13	-19.61%	―	―	42.65%
VMC	52 Neutral	AU$47.42M	1.06	-0.34%	―	―	-100.38%
SHN	52 Neutral	AU$108.26M	-8.22	-15.05%	―	―	76.36%
BCA	50 Neutral	AU$58.82M	31.80	4.75%	―	―	―
LMG	47 Neutral	AU$56.30M	-7.27	-5.89%	―	―	59.26%
WCE	34 Underperform	AU$77.16M	-3.77	-440.50%	―	―	-61.06%

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Corporate Events

Latrobe Magnesium hits continuous MgO output milestone at Hazelwood plant

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has achieved continuous production of about 20 tonnes of magnesium oxide at its Hazelwood North demonstration plant, using brown coal ash over a sustained two-week operating period. The company reports that the magnesium oxide meets required quality standards and has already been sold to a customer, marking a key validation of its proprietary process.

The stabilised plant operations, following rectification of a gas transport fan defect, have allowed Latrobe to optimise its spray roaster and demonstrate ongoing production of magnesium oxide and by-products such as char, iron oxide and agricultural lime. Management says this milestone substantially de-risks the project and positions the company to move toward magnesium metal production and eventual commercial operations, with by-product validation trials now planned for potential customers and the planned Stage 2 commercial plant.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LMG) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Latrobe Magnesium Limited stock, see the AU:LMG Stock Forecast page.

Latrobe Magnesium Options Lapse, Trimming Potential Future Dilution

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 3,000,000 listed options (LMGAE), which expired unexercised on 5 January 2026, having carried an exercise price of $0.10 and an original expiry date of 22 December 2025. The expiry of these options without conversion marginally reduces the company’s potential future share dilution and clarifies its capital structure for investors, but does not involve any immediate cash inflow or operational change for the business.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LMG) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Latrobe Magnesium Limited stock, see the AU:LMG Stock Forecast page.

Latrobe Magnesium Secures Export Finance Australia Support for Stage 2 Magnesium Plant

Latrobe Magnesium has received a non-binding and conditional Letter of Support from Export Finance Australia, indicating potential participation in financing its planned 10,000 tonne-per-annum Stage 2 commercial magnesium plant in Victoria, alongside a previously announced non-binding Letter of Interest from the US Export-Import Bank for up to A$200 million in debt. The company plans to appoint Bechtel to complete a bankable feasibility study within nine months, is seeking A$200 million in debt and A$50 million in equity, and has already allocated 100% of the plant’s output under an offtake agreement for the US market, underscoring its role in diversifying Western supply of a critical mineral currently dominated by China and Russia and strengthening its strategic positioning in the US–Australia critical minerals partnership.

Latrobe Magnesium Uses $6.29m R&D Rebate to Cut Debt as Asset Sales Loom

Latrobe Magnesium has received a $6.29 million research and development tax incentive from the Australian Taxation Office, which it has applied directly to reduce its debt to financier RnD Funding, cutting the outstanding balance on its R&D facility to about $2.6 million. The company expects to clear this remaining liability through the planned sale of two surplus property lots for a combined $2.8 million, while also flagging a dispute over a lease extension with RnD that remains under negotiation and has been disclosed as a contingent liability, developments that collectively improve its near‑term funding position as it advances commissioning of its magnesium demonstration plant and longer-term expansion plans.

Latrobe Magnesium Updates Mediation Process Amid Expansion Plans

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has provided an update on its ongoing mediation process with Mincore Pty Ltd, emphasizing its commitment to the process without commenting on the potential outcomes. This development is part of LMG’s broader strategy to advance its magnesium production capabilities, which includes the commissioning of a Demonstration Plant and plans for larger-scale operations in Australia and Malaysia. The company’s focus on recycling industrial waste and reducing CO2 emissions positions it as a leader in environmentally sustainable practices within the magnesium industry.

Latrobe Magnesium Restarts Demonstration Plant with Enhanced Reliability

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has successfully addressed a mechanical defect in its Stage 1 Demonstration Plant in Hazelwood North, which temporarily halted operations. The issue was traced to a manufacturing defect in the Spray Roaster gas transport fan, and corrective measures have been implemented with the help of various technical stakeholders. The plant has now resumed operations, with improvements made to ensure long-term reliability and efficiency. The company is also exploring new materials for future projects to reduce maintenance complexity. These developments are expected to strengthen Latrobe Magnesium’s operational capabilities and support its market positioning as it aims for continuous MgO production and future sales.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the quotation of 3,491,979 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of December 5, 2025. This move is part of previously announced transactions and may enhance the company’s liquidity and market positioning, potentially benefiting stakeholders by increasing the company’s capital base and visibility in the market.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced the application for the quotation of 2,000,000 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move follows the approval of the Employee Acquisition Plan by security holders in the 2021 Annual General Meeting. The issuance of these securities is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its market presence and operational capabilities, potentially impacting its industry positioning and stakeholder interests.

Latrobe Magnesium Limited Announces Proposed Securities Issue

Latrobe Magnesium Limited has announced a proposed issue of 3,491,979 ordinary fully paid securities, as part of a placement or other type of issue. This move is expected to enhance the company’s financial resources, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning by providing additional capital to support its strategic initiatives.