tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Key Petroleum Limited (AU:KEY)
ASX:KEY
Australian Market

Key Petroleum Limited (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
3 Followers

Top Page

AU:KEY

Key Petroleum Limited

(Sydney:KEY)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.04
▼(-26.67% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/18/26
The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance (sharp revenue decline, large losses, and ongoing cash burn), with technicals also strongly negative (below key moving averages and weak momentum). A debt-free balance sheet offers some risk reduction, but negative earnings and no dividend limit valuation support.
Positive Factors
Zero net debt / conservative leverage
A zero-debt capital structure materially reduces refinancing and interest risk for an upstream E&P junior. Over the next 2–6 months this preserves financial optionality to pursue farm-ins or asset plays, and cushions the company in cyclical commodity downturns.
Moderating operating cash burn
The sizeable improvement in operating cash flow indicates management actions or operational changes are reducing cash burn. A durable trend toward lower negative OCF extends runway and reduces the immediacy of external funding needs, aiding project execution in the medium term.
Focused upstream E&P business model
A clear upstream E&P mandate gives the company structural optionality: successful exploration/appraisal can convert into high-return development assets. Over months this asset-focused model preserves upside potential from discoveries and value-accretive farm-ins or JV partnerships.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue collapse
A ~66% revenue drop indicates material production or contract disruptions, eroding the firm’s ability to cover fixed development costs. Persistently low top-line makes sustaining exploration or appraisal programs difficult without new financing or asset monetisation, raising execution risk.
Persistent negative profitability and cash generation
Ongoing losses and negative free cash flow mean the company cannot self-fund working capital or capex. Over a multi-month horizon this forces reliance on dilutive equity raises or asset sales, constraining strategic options and increasing structural financing risk.
Eroding equity and negative ROE
Sustained equity erosion and negative ROE signal persistent value destruction from operations or financing. This reduces the company’s capital buffer, limits attractiveness to new investors or lenders, and impairs capacity to fund exploration or development without dilution.

Key Petroleum Limited (KEY) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Key Petroleum Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKey Petroleum Limited engages in the acquisition and exploration of petroleum permits in Australia. It primarily holds interests in the ATP 783, 920, and 924 assets in the Cooper Eromanga Basin, Queensland, as well as L7 and EP437 in the Perth Basin, Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes Moneynull

Key Petroleum Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial profile is weak overall: revenue fell sharply (2025 vs 2024), losses remain very large, and operating/free cash flow are persistently negative. The main offset is a conservative balance sheet with zero debt, but equity has declined meaningfully, signaling ongoing value erosion.
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Profitability is very weak and volatile. The latest annual period (2025-06-30) shows revenue collapsing to 1,677 from 8,092 in 2024 (down ~66%), while losses remain large (net income -484,245) and margins are deeply negative. Although gross profit is positive, operating losses indicate the cost base is not supported by current revenue levels, and earnings quality has been inconsistent (including a profitable 2023 despite zero revenue reported).
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Leverage is conservative, with total debt at 0 in both 2024 and 2025 and very low debt levels in prior years, which reduces financial risk. However, equity has trended down meaningfully (from 4.99m in 2020 to 1.07m in 2025) and returns on equity are strongly negative in the last two years, reflecting ongoing value erosion despite the low-debt structure.
Cash Flow
24
Negative
Cash generation is persistently negative. Operating cash flow has been negative every year shown, with 2025 improving to -303,660 from -703,455 in 2024 but still not self-funding. Free cash flow is also negative across the period (2025: -417,747), implying continued reliance on external funding or asset changes to sustain operations, even though the cash burn rate has recently moderated.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.001.68K8.09K0.0010.98K549.19K
Gross Profit0.001.68K8.09K-2.00K8.95K508.20K
EBITDA-180.97K-148.21K-961.00K387.89K-1.21M-2.18M
Net Income-345.92K-484.25K-961.00K350.37K-1.22M-2.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.64M1.59M1.51M2.20M2.16M3.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments136.25K94.07K172.07K583.30K266.61K1.39M
Total Debt0.000.000.00102.35K102.35K204.47K
Total Liabilities400.18K514.38K294.73K310.23K627.57K781.77K
Stockholders Equity1.24M1.07M1.22M1.89M1.54M2.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-477.26K-417.75K-720.51K-756.02K-821.39K-1.23M
Operating Cash Flow-390.13K-303.66K-703.46K-643.51K-765.56K-770.83K
Investing Cash Flow-91.69K-114.09K238.06K1.05M861.59K737.00
Financing Cash Flow431.36K339.74K292.31K-102.35K-102.13K173.80K

Key Petroleum Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
45
Neutral
AU$8.57M-1.15-175.50%-92.71%-220.72%
43
Neutral
AU$4.24M-0.97-28.08%94.13%
41
Neutral
AU$1.60M-2.99-29.94%53.72%
37
Underperform
AU$4.70M-0.67-26.79%-26.88%24.00%
37
Underperform
AU$2.87M-1.39-16.19%-61.11%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:KEY
Key Petroleum Limited
0.05
-0.02
-25.81%
AU:XST
Xstate Resources Limited
0.02
0.00
0.00%
AU:PRM
Prominence Energy Limited
AU:WEL
Winchester Energy Ltd
AU:SAN
Sagalio Energy Limited
0.01
>-0.01
-30.00%

Key Petroleum Limited Corporate Events

Key Petroleum Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 1 Million New Shares
Feb 26, 2026

Key Petroleum Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 1,015,286 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 26 February 2026. The additional securities, issued as part of previously announced transactions, will marginally expand the company’s listed share capital and may modestly increase liquidity for existing and prospective shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Completes First Tranche of Placement, Seeks New Investors for Remaining Shares
Feb 26, 2026

Key Petroleum has completed a 3% tranche of its previously announced share placement, issuing 1,015,286 fully paid ordinary shares at AU$0.058 each to raise AU$58,886.59 before costs, following a brief settlement delay linked to Chinese Lunar New Year banking timelines. The planned 13% tranche with the original subscriber has been cancelled for reasons unrelated to the company, and Key Petroleum is now seeking alternative sophisticated investors to place the remaining 4,399,572 shares on identical terms within about three weeks, with proceeds earmarked for asset acquisitions, existing asset development and maintenance, and working capital needs.

The company confirmed that the new shares were issued without a prospectus under the Corporations Act’s exemption provisions, noting it remains compliant with its continuous disclosure and financial reporting obligations. Management reiterated there is no change to the previously stated use of funds, signalling that the capital raising strategy and operational priorities remain intact despite the withdrawal of the initial subscriber for the larger tranche.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Plans Share Placement to Raise New Capital
Feb 11, 2026

Key Petroleum Limited has notified the ASX of a proposed placement of up to 5,414,858 new ordinary fully paid shares. The new securities are scheduled for issue on 20 February 2026, signaling a capital-raising move that could support the company’s operational or strategic initiatives and modestly dilute existing shareholders while potentially strengthening its balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Sell with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Raises A$314,000 in Share Placement to Fund Asset Growth
Feb 11, 2026

Key Petroleum Ltd has raised A$314,061.77 through a placement of 5,414,858 fully paid ordinary shares at A$0.058 each to two sophisticated investors. The capital injection reflects continued investor support and modestly strengthens the company’s balance sheet, providing targeted funding for strategic growth and operational stability.

The funds will be allocated to acquiring assets with development upside, covering maintenance and development costs for existing assets, and bolstering working capital. This use of proceeds underscores Key Petroleum’s focus on expanding its asset base and sustaining existing projects, which may help position the company for future production growth and improved competitiveness in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Sell with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Advances Cooper-Eromanga PCA Plans Amid Capital Constraints
Jan 27, 2026

Key Petroleum Limited reported that its eight Potential Commercial Area applications over permits ATP 920 and ATP 924 in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin remain under government consideration at the decision stage, with the company expecting long-term approvals that would underpin development planning, partner engagement and funding initiatives. The company held its AGM in November 2025, secured working capital from a share issuance completed in the third quarter, flagged a further capital raising in early 2026 to strengthen its asset base, and appointed a new Company Secretary with legal and financial expertise, while emphasising that its financial position remains constrained and that it will continue pressing for timely PCA approvals and preparing technical and financing work to move the projects into their next development phase.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Sell with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Appoints New Director, Discloses Initial Shareholding
Jan 7, 2026

Key Petroleum Limited has announced the appointment of Jujun Zhang as a director of the company, effective 6 January 2026. In connection with the appointment, the company has disclosed that Zhang holds 2,954,682 ordinary shares in Key Petroleum, clarifying his initial equity stake and aligning his interests with existing shareholders under ASX disclosure rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Names New CEO and Vice Chairman to Drive New Energy Strategy
Jan 7, 2026

Key Petroleum Limited has appointed Mr Jujun Zhang as Executive Director, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman, effective 6 January 2026, as part of its efforts to advance its strategic objectives in the new energy power generation space. Zhang, a PRC national with a master’s degree and more than 20 years’ experience in power generation technologies and large-scale commercial projects, will concentrate on strategic development, investment and business development, while the existing Managing Director continues to oversee day-to-day operations; his appointment on a modest fixed remuneration underscores a governance structure aimed at strengthening leadership without disrupting current operational management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 18, 2026