Key Petroleum Limited (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.73M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 16.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.50
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 53.72%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 34,858,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,256
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,341
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 519.76
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.05 ▼(-18.33% Downside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Upgraded 12/30/25

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance (large losses, collapsing revenue, and ongoing negative operating/free cash flow), despite the benefit of zero debt. Technicals also detract due to a bearish trend and negative MACD, even though oversold readings suggest some short-term stabilization potential. Valuation provides limited support because negative earnings make the P/E less informative and no dividend yield is available.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage

Zero recorded debt materially lowers refinancing and interest risks for an upstream explorer. This durable capital structure gives flexibility to pursue exploration or development via JV or farm‑out, and helps absorb commodity swings without near‑term debt servicing pressure.

Improving cash burn trend

A marked reduction in operating cash outflows shows the company is moderating burn and extending runway. If sustained, this trend reduces near‑term external funding needs and increases optionality to prioritise higher‑value projects or structured partnerships over urgent capital raises.

Focused upstream E&P model

A clear upstream exploration and production mandate is a durable strategic strength: owning prospect and development capability enables value creation from discoveries, reserve additions and project development, aligning incentives for long‑term reserve and production growth.

Negative Factors

Collapsed revenue and large losses

A ~66% revenue collapse alongside massive net losses indicates structural operating failure to monetize assets. Persistent negative profitability erodes capital, undermines reinvestment capacity and credibility with partners, making sustained recovery dependent on material operational or portfolio change.

Persistent negative cash generation

Continued negative operating and free cash flow forces reliance on external financing or asset sales to fund exploration and development. That dependence increases dilution and execution risk, and constrains the ability to self‑fund strategic drilling or basin‑scale investments.

Eroding equity base

A shrinking equity balance reduces the company’s loss-absorbing capacity and limits balance sheet resilience. Over time this constrains borrowing flexibility, diminishes bargaining power in partnerships or farm‑outs, and signals cumulative value destruction to stakeholders.

Key Petroleum Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Key Petroleum Limited engages in the acquisition and exploration of petroleum permits in Australia. It primarily holds interests in the ATP 783, 920, and 924 assets in the Cooper Eromanga Basin, Queensland, as well as L7 and EP437 in the Perth Basin, Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Key Petroleum Limited makes money through its exploration and development activities in the oil and gas sector. The company's revenue model is centered around discovering commercially viable oil and gas reserves and either developing these reserves for production or selling them to larger entities in the energy industry. Revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas extracted from its licensed properties, as well as potential joint ventures or farm-out agreements with other energy companies. These partnerships and agreements can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, or royalties that contribute to the company's earnings. Key Petroleum's financial success is influenced by factors such as global oil and gas prices, exploration success rates, and the ability to manage operational costs efficiently.

Key Petroleum Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are weak: revenue fell sharply (2025 revenue 1,677 vs 8,092 in 2024) while net losses remain very large (-484,245) and cash flow is persistently negative (2025 operating cash flow -303,660; free cash flow -417,747). The main offset is a conservative balance sheet with zero debt, but equity has eroded meaningfully (to ~1.07m in 2025).

Income Statement

Profitability is very weak and volatile. The latest annual period (2025-06-30) shows revenue collapsing to 1,677 from 8,092 in 2024 (down ~66%), while losses remain large (net income -484,245) and margins are deeply negative. Although gross profit is positive, operating losses indicate the cost base is not supported by current revenue levels, and earnings quality has been inconsistent (including a profitable 2023 despite zero revenue reported).

Balance Sheet

Leverage is conservative, with total debt at 0 in both 2024 and 2025 and very low debt levels in prior years, which reduces financial risk. However, equity has trended down meaningfully (from 4.99m in 2020 to 1.07m in 2025) and returns on equity are strongly negative in the last two years, reflecting ongoing value erosion despite the low-debt structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is persistently negative. Operating cash flow has been negative every year shown, with 2025 improving to -303,660 from -703,455 in 2024 but still not self-funding. Free cash flow is also negative across the period (2025: -417,747), implying continued reliance on external funding or asset changes to sustain operations, even though the cash burn rate has recently moderated.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.68K	8.09K	0.00	10.98K	549.19K
Gross Profit	1.68K	8.09K	-2.00K	8.95K	508.20K
EBITDA	-148.21K	-961.00K	387.89K	-1.21M	-2.18M
Net Income	-484.25K	-961.00K	350.37K	-1.22M	-2.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.59M	1.51M	2.20M	2.16M	3.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	94.07K	172.07K	583.30K	266.61K	1.39M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	102.35K	102.35K	204.47K
Total Liabilities	514.38K	294.73K	310.23K	627.57K	781.77K
Stockholders Equity	1.07M	1.22M	1.89M	1.54M	2.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-417.75K	-720.51K	-756.02K	-821.39K	-1.23M
Operating Cash Flow	-303.66K	-703.46K	-643.51K	-765.56K	-770.83K
Investing Cash Flow	-114.09K	238.06K	1.05M	861.59K	737.00
Financing Cash Flow	339.74K	292.31K	-102.35K	-102.13K	173.80K

Key Petroleum Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
XST	45 Neutral	AU$8.57M	-0.54	-120.24%	―	-92.71%	-220.72%
KEY	43 Neutral	AU$1.73M	-2.56	-42.33%	―	―	53.72%
PRM	43 Neutral	AU$5.09M	―	-71.63%	―	―	94.13%
WEL	37 Underperform	AU$3.14M	―	-26.79%	―	-26.88%	24.00%
SAN	37 Underperform	AU$2.87M	-4.83	―	―	-16.19%	-61.11%

Key Petroleum Limited Corporate Events

Key Petroleum Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 1 Million New Shares

Key Petroleum Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 1,015,286 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 26 February 2026. The additional securities, issued as part of previously announced transactions, will marginally expand the company’s listed share capital and may modestly increase liquidity for existing and prospective shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Completes First Tranche of Placement, Seeks New Investors for Remaining Shares

Key Petroleum has completed a 3% tranche of its previously announced share placement, issuing 1,015,286 fully paid ordinary shares at AU$0.058 each to raise AU$58,886.59 before costs, following a brief settlement delay linked to Chinese Lunar New Year banking timelines. The planned 13% tranche with the original subscriber has been cancelled for reasons unrelated to the company, and Key Petroleum is now seeking alternative sophisticated investors to place the remaining 4,399,572 shares on identical terms within about three weeks, with proceeds earmarked for asset acquisitions, existing asset development and maintenance, and working capital needs.

The company confirmed that the new shares were issued without a prospectus under the Corporations Act’s exemption provisions, noting it remains compliant with its continuous disclosure and financial reporting obligations. Management reiterated there is no change to the previously stated use of funds, signalling that the capital raising strategy and operational priorities remain intact despite the withdrawal of the initial subscriber for the larger tranche.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Plans Share Placement to Raise New Capital

Key Petroleum Limited has notified the ASX of a proposed placement of up to 5,414,858 new ordinary fully paid shares. The new securities are scheduled for issue on 20 February 2026, signaling a capital-raising move that could support the company’s operational or strategic initiatives and modestly dilute existing shareholders while potentially strengthening its balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Sell with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Raises A$314,000 in Share Placement to Fund Asset Growth

Key Petroleum Ltd has raised A$314,061.77 through a placement of 5,414,858 fully paid ordinary shares at A$0.058 each to two sophisticated investors. The capital injection reflects continued investor support and modestly strengthens the company’s balance sheet, providing targeted funding for strategic growth and operational stability.

The funds will be allocated to acquiring assets with development upside, covering maintenance and development costs for existing assets, and bolstering working capital. This use of proceeds underscores Key Petroleum’s focus on expanding its asset base and sustaining existing projects, which may help position the company for future production growth and improved competitiveness in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Sell with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Advances Cooper-Eromanga PCA Plans Amid Capital Constraints

Key Petroleum Limited reported that its eight Potential Commercial Area applications over permits ATP 920 and ATP 924 in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin remain under government consideration at the decision stage, with the company expecting long-term approvals that would underpin development planning, partner engagement and funding initiatives. The company held its AGM in November 2025, secured working capital from a share issuance completed in the third quarter, flagged a further capital raising in early 2026 to strengthen its asset base, and appointed a new Company Secretary with legal and financial expertise, while emphasising that its financial position remains constrained and that it will continue pressing for timely PCA approvals and preparing technical and financing work to move the projects into their next development phase.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Sell with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Appoints New Director, Discloses Initial Shareholding

Key Petroleum Limited has announced the appointment of Jujun Zhang as a director of the company, effective 6 January 2026. In connection with the appointment, the company has disclosed that Zhang holds 2,954,682 ordinary shares in Key Petroleum, clarifying his initial equity stake and aligning his interests with existing shareholders under ASX disclosure rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Names New CEO and Vice Chairman to Drive New Energy Strategy

Key Petroleum Limited has appointed Mr Jujun Zhang as Executive Director, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman, effective 6 January 2026, as part of its efforts to advance its strategic objectives in the new energy power generation space. Zhang, a PRC national with a master’s degree and more than 20 years’ experience in power generation technologies and large-scale commercial projects, will concentrate on strategic development, investment and business development, while the existing Managing Director continues to oversee day-to-day operations; his appointment on a modest fixed remuneration underscores a governance structure aimed at strengthening leadership without disrupting current operational management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KEY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Key Petroleum Limited stock, see the AU:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Key Petroleum Announces Change in Company Secretary

Key Petroleum Limited has announced a change in its company secretary position, with Mr. Ian Gregory retiring after 13 years of service. Ms. Fang (Celine) Xia, an experienced Australian-qualified lawyer and founder of Ming Dao Law, will assume the role, bringing extensive expertise in corporate, regulatory, and governance matters, potentially strengthening the company’s operational and strategic capabilities.

Key Petroleum Limited Passes Key Resolutions at 2025 AGM

Key Petroleum Limited announced the successful passing of ten resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting, including the adoption of the Remuneration Report and the election of new directors. The approval of key resolutions such as the Listing Rule 7.1A Mandate and the adoption of Proportional Takeover Provisions signals strategic moves that could enhance the company’s operational flexibility and governance structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.