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Key Petroleum Limited (AU:KEY)
ASX:KEY
Australian Market
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Key Petroleum Limited (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:KEY

Key Petroleum Limited

(Sydney:KEY)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.11
▲(86.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, steep revenue decline, and ongoing negative operating/free cash flow), partially offset by low balance-sheet leverage (zero debt). Technicals are mixed with longer-term averages improving but near-term weakness, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings (negative P/E) and no indicated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage (zero debt)
The company’s zero total debt in 2024–2025 provides durable financial flexibility and low refinancing risk. This capital structure reduces fixed financing costs, preserves optionality for operational investment or restructuring, and limits solvency pressure during cyclical oil price swings.
Negative Factors
Severe revenue decline
A ~66% revenue collapse undermines the company’s ability to cover fixed costs and sustain operations. Such a steep decline indicates structural production, contract, or demand issues that are difficult to reverse quickly and can impair long-term customer relationships, supplier terms, and investment plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage (zero debt)
The company’s zero total debt in 2024–2025 provides durable financial flexibility and low refinancing risk. This capital structure reduces fixed financing costs, preserves optionality for operational investment or restructuring, and limits solvency pressure during cyclical oil price swings.
Read all positive factors

Key Petroleum Limited (KEY) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Key Petroleum Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Key Petroleum Limited engages in the acquisition and exploration of petroleum permits in Australia. It primarily holds interests in the ATP 783, 920, and 924 assets in the Cooper Eromanga Basin, Queensland, as well as L7 and EP437 in the Perth Bas...
How the Company Makes Money
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Key Petroleum Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are weak overall: revenue fell sharply (2025 revenue 1,677 vs 8,092 in 2024) while net losses remain very large (net income -484,245) and operating/free cash flow are persistently negative (2025 FCF -417,747). The main offset is a conservative balance sheet with zero debt in 2024–2025, but equity has fallen materially and value erosion continues.
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.001.68K8.09K0.0010.98K549.19K
Gross Profit0.001.68K8.09K-2.00K8.95K508.20K
EBITDA-180.97K-148.21K-961.00K387.89K-1.21M-2.18M
Net Income-345.92K-484.25K-961.00K350.37K-1.22M-2.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.64M1.59M1.51M2.20M2.16M3.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments136.25K94.07K172.07K583.30K266.61K1.39M
Total Debt0.000.000.00102.35K102.35K204.47K
Total Liabilities400.18K514.38K294.73K310.23K627.57K781.77K
Stockholders Equity1.24M1.07M1.22M1.89M1.54M2.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-477.26K-417.75K-720.51K-756.02K-821.39K-1.23M
Operating Cash Flow-390.13K-303.66K-703.46K-643.51K-765.56K-770.83K
Investing Cash Flow-91.69K-114.09K238.06K1.05M861.59K737.00
Financing Cash Flow431.36K339.74K292.31K-102.35K-102.13K173.80K

Key Petroleum Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
46
Neutral
AU$13.92M-0.63-37.28%-100.00%9.93%
45
Neutral
AU$4.67M-2.99-29.94%71.78%
44
Neutral
AU$3.43M-0.92-43.43%-20.01%5.88%
43
Neutral
AU$4.78M-1.09-25.48%65.31%
43
Neutral
AU$2.46M-2.004.32%-27.82%-30.43%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:KEY
Key Petroleum Limited
0.12
0.08
187.50%
AU:XST
Xstate Resources Limited
0.03
<0.01
45.00%
AU:PRM
Prominence Energy Limited
AU:WEL
Winchester Energy Ltd
AU:SAN
Sagalio Energy Limited
0.01
>-0.01
-40.00%

Key Petroleum Limited Corporate Events

Key Petroleum Investor Raises Stake to Nearly 20%
May 8, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has disclosed a change in a substantial shareholding, with investor Bei bei Chen increasing their holding of ordinary shares. Chen&#8217;s voting power in the company has risen from 10.72% to 19.76%, reflecting a significant ...
ASF Group Exits Substantial Holder Position in Key Petroleum
May 5, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has disclosed that ASF Group Limited has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company, following a series of on&#8209;market disposals of ordinary shares in early May 2026. The change was formally notified under Aust...
Key Petroleum Reveals Highly Concentrated Shareholder Register
May 5, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has disclosed the composition of its top 20 holders of ordinary fully paid shares as of 5 April 2026, showing a highly concentrated register. The leading shareholders, including several Chinese-linked investment groups and Au...
Key Petroleum Resolves Temporary Breach of 20% Ownership Cap
May 5, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has disclosed that a recent share placement temporarily lifted the voting power of substantial shareholder Ms Beibei Chen to about 20.28%, briefly breaching the 20% ownership threshold under the Corporations Act. The board st...
Key Petroleum Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 1 Million New Shares
May 1, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has applied to the Australian Securities Exchange for quotation of 1,015,286 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 1 May 2026. The modest share issuance, tied to previously announced transactions, slightly exp...
Key Petroleum Completes Share Placement to Fund Asset Growth
May 1, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has completed a share placement to a sophisticated investor, issuing 1,015,286 fully paid ordinary shares, or about 3% of its issued capital, at AU$0.058 per share to raise AU$58,886.59 before costs. This transaction exhausts...
Key Petroleum Fully Utilises Placement Capacity in Targeted Capital Raise
May 1, 2026
Key Petroleum Ltd has completed the placement of the remaining 3% of its previously announced capital-raising capacity, securing binding commitments for 1,015,286 new fully paid ordinary shares at AUD $0.058 each to raise approximately AUD $58,886...
Key Petroleum Seeks ASX Quotation for 3 Million New Shares
Apr 29, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 3,045,858 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of April 29, 2026. The securities, which arise from previously announced transactions, will expand the company&#8217;s quote...
Key Petroleum Raises Capital via Share Placement to Fund Asset Growth
Apr 29, 2026
Key Petroleum has completed a share placement to a sophisticated investor, issuing 3,045,858 fully paid ordinary shares at AU$0.058 each, equivalent to about 9% of its issued capital and raising AU$176,659.76 before costs. The proceeds will be dir...
Key Petroleum says no undisclosed news behind share price moves
Apr 24, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has responded to an ASX price and volume query, stating it is not aware of any undisclosed information that would explain the recent movements in its share trading. The company confirmed it remains in full compliance with ASX...
Key Petroleum Raises Capital to Fund Asset Growth and Operations
Apr 7, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has completed a capital raising of AU$176,659.76 through a placement of 3,045,858 fully paid ordinary shares to sophisticated investors at an issue price of AU$0.058 per share. The shares will be issued under the company&#821...
Key Petroleum Shelves Major Share Placement Tranche After Failing to Secure Investors
Mar 19, 2026
Key Petroleum Ltd, an ASX-listed petroleum exploration and production company, continues to rely on equity raisings from sophisticated investors to support its operational and growth plans. The company&#8217;s funding strategy and success in secur...
Key Petroleum Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 1 Million New Shares
Feb 26, 2026
Key Petroleum Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 1,015,286 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 26 February 2026. The additional securities, issued as part of previously announced transactions, will marginally expand ...
Key Petroleum Completes First Tranche of Placement, Seeks New Investors for Remaining Shares
Feb 26, 2026
Key Petroleum has completed a 3% tranche of its previously announced share placement, issuing 1,015,286 fully paid ordinary shares at AU$0.058 each to raise AU$58,886.59 before costs, following a brief settlement delay linked to Chinese Lunar New ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 20, 2026