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James Hardie (AU:JHX)
ASX:JHX

James Hardie (JHX) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

James Hardie

(Sydney:JHX)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
James Hardie's strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives are key strengths, but technical indicators show bearish momentum. Valuation is fair, but the absence of a dividend yield and challenges in key markets weigh on the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Strategy
The acquisition of AZEK is expected to provide scale and high growth opportunities for James Hardie.
Market Position
James Hardie is considered a best-in-class company with a significant competitive advantage due to its high-quality products.
Valuation
James Hardie's valuation is considered attractive, as it is significantly below the mean on EV/EBITDA.
Negative Factors
Earnings Outlook
Analyst reiterates an Underperform rating on James Hardie and remains cautious on its earnings outlook due to lower demand tracking.
Input Costs
Input costs are trending up, with a significant increase in pulp prices affecting the company's operations.
Macroeconomic Environment
A lower price objective has been set for James Hardie due to a more uncertain macroeconomic environment and demanding valuation.

James Hardie (JHX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

James Hardie Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJames Hardie Industries plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells fiber cement, fiber gypsum, and cement bonded building products for interior and exterior building construction applications primarily in the United States, Australia, Europe, New Zealand, the Philippines, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: North America Fiber Cement, Asia Pacific Fiber Cement, and Europe Building Products. It offers fiber cement interior linings, exterior siding products, and related accessories; and various fiber cement building materials for a range of applications, including external siding, internal walls, floors, ceilings, soffits, trim, fences, and facades. The company also provides fiber gypsum and cement-bonded boards for applications, such as timber frame construction, dry lining, DIY, and structural fire protection. Its products are used in various markets comprising new residential construction and commercial construction markets. James Hardie Industries plc was founded in 1888 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
How the Company Makes MoneyJames Hardie generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fiber cement products, with a significant portion of sales coming from its flagship HardiePlank® siding. The company serves a diverse customer base that includes homeowners, builders, and contractors, primarily in North America, Australia, and Europe. Revenue streams are bolstered by the company's focus on research and development, enabling the continuous introduction of new products and improvements to existing offerings. Strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers further expand James Hardie's market reach, while cost efficiencies in manufacturing and supply chain management contribute to its profitability.

James Hardie Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 6.31%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced outlook with strong performance in North America and Europe, strategic growth initiatives, and a positive merger outlook with The AZEK Company. However, challenges persist in multifamily and interior product segments, and market headwinds are expected in North America and Asia Pacific.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong North American Performance
James Hardie delivered $2.9 billion in North American sales and achieved a 35% EBITDA margin, exceeding initial profitability commitments in a challenging market environment.
Strategic Growth in Single-Family Exteriors
The company achieved growth in single-family exteriors, leveraging innovative product solutions like ColorPlus, which saw double-digit growth in FY '25.
Record Performance in Europe
Europe achieved record Q4 sales with high value products achieving double-digit sales growth throughout 2025.
Successful New Construction Partnerships
James Hardie announced multiyear exclusivity agreements with several major home builders, indicating strong partnerships and future growth potential.
Positive Outlook with The AZEK Company Merger
The merger with The AZEK Company is expected to create a leading growth platform in building products, with anticipated $500 million in commercial synergies and over $1 billion in free cash flow post-synergy.
Negative Updates
Decline in Multifamily and Interior Products
The company experienced a significant decline in multifamily segment volumes, over 20%, and a high single-digit decline in interior products.
Challenging Market Conditions in North America
The company is planning for a mid-single-digit decline in North American market volumes in FY '26 due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Asia Pacific Sales Decline
Asia Pacific net sales declined 17% in U.S. dollars, primarily due to a 31% decrease in volumes, partially offset by a 25% rise in ASP.
Company Guidance
During the James Hardie Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, Aaron Erter, Chief Executive Officer, provided comprehensive guidance for FY '26, emphasizing the company's strategic focus and financial expectations. The company anticipates low single-digit net sales growth in North America, despite forecasting a mid-single-digit decline in market volumes. This growth is driven by continued investments in strategic initiatives like the expansion of their ColorPlus technology, which saw double-digit growth in FY '25. The company reported $2.9 billion in North American sales for FY '25, with an EBIT margin of 29.4% and an EBITDA of $1 billion, translating to a 35% EBITDA margin. For FY '26, James Hardie expects EBITDA margins to remain stable at approximately 35%, supported by cost savings initiatives that are projected to counter high single-digit raw material inflation. Additionally, the company is planning for free cash flow to exceed $500 million, reflecting a 30% increase from FY '25, aided by a $100 million reduction in capital expenditures to $325 million. The guidance also highlighted the strategic combination with The AZEK Company, expected to enhance growth and deliver $500 million in commercial synergies and $125 million in cost synergies over the next few years.

James Hardie Financial Statement Overview

Summary
James Hardie demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, robust margins, and solid balance sheet metrics. Cash flow generation is efficient, but managing leverage and future growth are potential risks.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
James Hardie has demonstrated strong performance with consistent revenue growth from $2.61 billion in 2020 to $3.91 billion TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 39.44%, and net profit margin is healthy at 11.15% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 17.33% and 23.12%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and profitability.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company's balance sheet is solid with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, showing a balanced leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 20.76%, reflecting effective use of equity capital. An equity ratio of 42.79% indicates a stable financial structure with a strong equity base.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
James Hardie has maintained a positive cash flow position with free cash flow growing from $7.8 million to $368 million TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.89, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.84 suggests efficient capital expenditure management.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.91B3.94B3.78B3.61B2.91B2.61B
Gross Profit
1.54B1.59B1.31B1.31B1.05B933.70M
EBIT
677.80M767.40M741.40M682.60M472.80M342.50M
EBITDA
904.20M976.20M933.10M844.20M594.80M473.90M
Net Income Common Stockholders
436.00M510.20M512.00M459.10M262.80M241.50M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
539.10M365.00M113.00M125.00M208.50M207.40M
Total Assets
4.91B4.91B4.48B4.24B4.09B4.03B
Total Debt
1.19B1.20B1.14B955.50M922.60M1.41B
Net Debt
649.00M836.00M1.03B830.50M714.10M1.27B
Total Liabilities
2.81B3.05B2.87B2.91B3.03B2.99B
Stockholders Equity
2.10B1.86B1.61B1.33B1.06B1.04B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
368.00M464.90M7.80M497.50M666.70M257.40M
Operating Cash Flow
822.10M914.20M607.60M757.20M786.90M451.20M
Investing Cash Flow
-473.60M-470.50M-660.10M-348.20M-120.40M-203.80M
Financing Cash Flow
-240.90M-210.10M-25.40M-449.60M-540.20M-179.00M

James Hardie Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price40.92
Price Trends
50DMA
36.81
Positive
100DMA
43.86
Negative
200DMA
48.58
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.34
Negative
RSI
66.27
Neutral
STOCH
89.59
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:JHX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 40.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.53, above the 50-day MA of 36.81, and below the 200-day MA of 48.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:JHX.

James Hardie Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUJHX
68
Neutral
$17.22B26.8221.09%2.20%-16.72%
51
Neutral
$2.04B-1.15-21.37%3.64%2.88%-30.57%
$6.71B18.515.09%2.63%
$3.20B-1.34%2.54%
AUGMD
76
Outperform
AU$5.15B40.1413.01%125.45%
AUBGL
54
Neutral
AU$1.34B12.5014.70%861.38%
AUBMH
40
Underperform
AU$1.47M-165.55%-96.51%-251.72%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:JHX
James Hardie
40.92
-5.08
-11.04%
BLSFF
Bluescope Steel
15.06
1.96
14.96%
BRKWF
Brickworks Ltd
17.61
-0.06
-0.34%
AU:BMH
Baumart Holdings Ltd
0.01
-0.06
-85.71%
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
4.50
2.68
147.25%
AU:BGL
Bellevue Gold Limited
0.94
-0.94
-50.00%

James Hardie Corporate Events

James Hardie Receives Substantial Holding Notice from Morgan Stanley
Apr 23, 2025

James Hardie Industries has received a substantial holding notice from Morgan Stanley, indicating that as of April 15, 2025, Morgan Stanley holds a 2.71% interest in the company, amounting to 11,651,748 shares. This notification is part of regulatory requirements and reflects Morgan Stanley’s investment position in James Hardie, which could have implications for the company’s shareholder structure and market perception.

James Hardie Receives Substantial Holding Notice from Morgan Stanley
Apr 22, 2025

James Hardie Industries has received a substantial holding notice from Morgan Stanley, indicating that the financial institution holds a 3.17% interest in the company’s shares as of April 14, 2025. This notification is part of compliance with the Companies Act 2014, reflecting Morgan Stanley’s significant stake, which may influence shareholder dynamics and market perception of James Hardie’s stock.

James Hardie Announces Change in Substantial Holdings
Apr 22, 2025

James Hardie Industries has announced a change in substantial holdings, with BlackRock, Inc.’s total holdings and voting rights falling below 6%. This adjustment in ownership may impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its market positioning, as BlackRock is a significant institutional investor.

James Hardie Announces Substantial Holding by BlackRock
Apr 21, 2025

James Hardie Industries has announced a substantial holding notice as required under ASX Listing Rule 3.17.3, indicating that BlackRock, Inc. has increased its total holdings and voting rights in the company to above 6%. This development signifies a notable change in the ownership structure of James Hardie, potentially impacting its governance and strategic decisions, while also reflecting BlackRock’s increased interest and confidence in the company’s market position.

James Hardie Schedules Q4 FY25 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Apr 15, 2025

James Hardie Industries has announced the release date for its fourth quarter fiscal year 2025 financial results, scheduled for May 20th, 2025, in the United States and May 21st, 2025, in Australia. The company will host a conference call to discuss these results, which will be webcast live, offering stakeholders insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

James Hardie Announces New Securities Quotation
Apr 6, 2025

James Hardie Industries PLC has announced the issuance of 37,698 CHESS Depositary Interests, which are set to be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, indicating the company’s efforts to enhance employee engagement and align interests with shareholders, potentially impacting its market positioning positively.

James Hardie Issues Restricted Stock Units to Employees
Apr 6, 2025

James Hardie Industries PLC announced the issuance of 3,378 restricted stock units under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain key personnel, which could strengthen its operational capabilities and market position.

James Hardie Announces Change in Substantial Shareholding
Mar 30, 2025

James Hardie Industries has announced a change in the substantial holding of its shares, as reported to the Australian Securities Exchange. Challenger Limited, through its subsidiary Fidante Partners Limited, has reduced its shareholding in James Hardie from 3.5876% to 2.5618%. This change in shareholding could impact the company’s market dynamics and investor relations.

James Hardie Announces Proposed Issue of 150 Million Shares
Mar 23, 2025

James Hardie Industries PLC has announced a proposed issue of 150,438,000 ordinary shares, set to take place on September 30, 2025. This move is part of a placement or other type of issue, which could potentially impact the company’s market positioning by increasing its capital base and providing funds for growth initiatives, thereby influencing stakeholders and market dynamics.

James Hardie and AZEK Announce Strategic Merger to Enhance Growth
Mar 23, 2025

James Hardie has announced a strategic combination with The AZEK Company, aiming to create a leading growth platform in building products. This merger is expected to accelerate James Hardie’s current strategy and enhance its value proposition to customers, strengthening its industry positioning and potentially benefiting stakeholders.

James Hardie Proposes Acquisition of AZEK to Strengthen Market Position
Mar 23, 2025

James Hardie Industries plc, a leading player in the building products industry, has announced a proposed acquisition of The AZEK Company Inc. This strategic move aims to create a robust growth platform in the building products sector. The acquisition is expected to bring significant synergies and enhance the company’s market positioning. However, the transaction involves inherent risks and uncertainties, including regulatory approvals and potential impacts on market prices and business operations. Stakeholders are advised to consider these factors as the company navigates this significant strategic initiative.

James Hardie to Acquire AZEK in $8.75 Billion Deal, Expanding Market Reach
Mar 23, 2025

James Hardie Industries has announced a definitive agreement to acquire The AZEK Company for $8.75 billion, creating a leading building products growth platform. This strategic move is expected to significantly expand James Hardie’s market reach, accelerate revenue growth, and enhance profitability through synergies, positioning the combined company as a leader in the exterior and outdoor living product categories.

AustralianSuper Increases Stake in James Hardie Industries
Mar 18, 2025

James Hardie Industries has announced that AustralianSuper Pty Ltd has increased its shareholding in the company to 6.04% of its ordinary share capital as of March 10, 2025. This increase in shareholding, up from a previous 5.01% interest, signifies a growing confidence in James Hardie’s market position and could have implications for its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

James Hardie Reports Robust Q3 FY25 Results, Reaffirms Growth Plans
Feb 18, 2025

James Hardie reported strong third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing a GAAP operating income of $206 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $262 million. Despite a slight decline in net sales and adjusted EBITDA, the company reaffirmed its guidance for the rest of FY25 and its growth plans for FY26. CEO Aaron Erter emphasized the company’s strategic partnerships and strong team as key factors driving its success. CFO Rachel Wilson highlighted the company’s balanced approach to cost management and growth funding, which has positioned James Hardie to outperform its markets and invest in future growth.

James Hardie Announces Change in Substantial Holding
Feb 7, 2025

James Hardie Industries announced a substantial holding notice, indicating a change in shareholding below the 3% threshold by Superannuation and Investments HoldCo Pty Ltd and its subsidiaries. This disclosure reflects the entities’ aggregated interest of 2.978% in James Hardie Industries, equating to 12,798,346 shares, which could impact market perceptions and investor relations as it involves significant institutional stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.