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Fenix Resources Limited (AU:FEX)
ASX:FEX

Fenix Resources Limited (FEX) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:FEX

Fenix Resources Limited

(Sydney:FEX)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.44
▲(6.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/12/25
Fenix Resources Limited's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance, with strong revenue growth but declining profitability and cash flow challenges. The technical analysis shows positive momentum, but the valuation suggests potential overvaluation. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth
Sustained revenue growth near 20% indicates durable demand for Fenix's products and expanding sales volumes. Over 2-6 months this supports reinvestment in operations, provides headroom to improve margins if costs are controlled, and strengthens bargaining power with logistics partners.
Balanced capital structure with positive ROE
A moderate leverage level with a positive ROE and stable equity ratio suggests the company retains financial flexibility. This structure can support targeted growth or capex without excessive dilution, enabling long-term investments while keeping financing options open.
Export-oriented iron ore business with logistics arrangements
An export-focused business model tied to established logistics and port arrangements provides sustained access to global seaborne iron ore markets. Over time this supports steady revenue streams from external demand and reduces reliance on a single domestic market.
Negative Factors
Significant margin deterioration
A sharp erosion of profitability compresses internal funding capacity and heightens sensitivity to commodity price swings and cost inflation. If margins remain depressed, the company will struggle to generate returns sufficient to fund capex, service debt, and build cash buffers over the medium term.
Weak cash generation and conversion
Steep decline in free cash flow and poor cash conversion from earnings reduce financial resilience. Persistently weak cash generation limits ability to repay debt, fund projects or absorb price shocks, creating ongoing reliance on external financing or operational fixes.
Rising leverage trend
An increasing debt load raises fixed obligations and reduces financial flexibility, making the business more vulnerable to cyclical downturns in iron ore prices. Over months this trend can increase refinancing risk and constrain strategic choices if not reversed.

Fenix Resources Limited (FEX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Fenix Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFenix Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral tenements in Western Australia. The company operates in two segments: Iron Ridge Project and Trucking Joint Venture. Its flagship property is the 100% owned Iron Ridge Iron Ore project located in Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Emergent Resources Limited. Fenix Resources Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyFenix Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore to domestic and international customers, typically in the form of bulk shipments to steel producers. The company's revenue model is based on contracts and spot market sales, allowing flexibility to capitalize on fluctuating market prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales of iron ore, as well as possible partnerships with logistics providers to enhance distribution efficiency. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as global iron ore prices, production costs, and operational efficiency, along with any strategic alliances that may optimize their supply chain.

Fenix Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fenix Resources Limited shows a mixed financial performance. While revenue growth is strong, profitability margins have declined, and leverage has increased. Cash flow metrics indicate potential liquidity challenges. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and managing its debt levels to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Fenix Resources Limited has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 20.08% in the latest period, indicating a positive trajectory. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased over the years, and the net profit margin has significantly dropped from 12.98% to 1.71%, suggesting challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting increased operational costs or reduced pricing power.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased from 0.25 to 0.47, indicating a rise in leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity remains positive at 3.03%, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced capital structure.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
The free cash flow growth rate has significantly declined by 65.24%, indicating potential cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting that the company is generating less cash from its operations compared to its net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio has also decreased, highlighting potential cash flow management issues.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue479.31M316.09M259.20M196.85M249.17M114.38M
Gross Profit45.65M72.61M59.83M38.48M66.97M62.81M
EBITDA84.06M56.89M74.84M55.21M75.85M63.88M
Net Income13.24M5.39M33.64M29.25M50.69M49.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets456.08M364.47M266.78M188.54M152.39M116.59M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments79.41M57.82M77.35M76.37M101.93M69.00M
Total Debt105.55M82.92M41.92M21.37M374.03K2.01M
Total Liabilities274.85M186.70M100.44M63.70M44.16M39.33M
Stockholders Equity181.24M177.77M166.34M124.84M108.22M77.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow54.44M7.53M42.24M12.18M55.38M50.43M
Operating Cash Flow114.97M71.88M68.49M16.28M62.29M65.30M
Investing Cash Flow-80.87M-64.20M-40.14M-13.75M-5.44M-17.47M
Financing Cash Flow-9.71M-27.89M-26.95M-28.24M-24.03M20.02M

Fenix Resources Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.41
Price Trends
50DMA
0.45
Negative
100DMA
0.46
Negative
200DMA
0.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Negative
RSI
41.91
Neutral
STOCH
27.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FEX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.42, below the 50-day MA of 0.45, and above the 200-day MA of 0.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:FEX.

Fenix Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
AU$277.76M6.194.28%-13.54%-56.86%
63
Neutral
AU$319.36M34.976.50%2.13%-94.07%
62
Neutral
€312.88M23.603.14%2.17%21.95%-84.84%
62
Neutral
AU$148.74M9.798.79%15.32%10.05%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
51
Neutral
AU$372.68M-17.35-53.29%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:FEX
Fenix Resources Limited
0.41
0.13
48.90%
AU:GRR
Grange Resources Limited
0.23
0.01
4.55%
AU:RHI
Red Hill Iron Limited
5.00
1.60
47.06%
AU:MLG
MLG Oz Ltd
1.02
0.47
84.45%
AU:CTM
Centaurus Metals Limited
0.68
0.32
87.50%

Fenix Resources Limited Corporate Events

Fenix Resources Delivers Record Half-Year as Multi-Mine Strategy Scales Up
Feb 24, 2026

Fenix Resources reported record first-half FY26 production, shipping 2.1 million tonnes of iron ore, more than double the prior corresponding period, as its transition to a multi-mine producer gained traction. Revenue rose to A$294.2 million, EBITDA surged 137% to A$48.6 million and NPAT jumped to A$9.7 million, underpinned by improved volumes, lower C1 cash costs of A$75.3/wmt and strong operating cash flow of A$56.0 million.

The company strengthened its balance sheet to A$78.6 million in cash, bolstered its hedge book with significant volume and currency protection through to June 2027, and reaffirmed upgraded FY26 sales guidance of 4.2–4.8Mt at competitive FOB cash costs. A 30‑year Right to Mine agreement over the 290Mt Weld Range project with steel giant Baowu and a three-year growth plan targeting up to 6Mtpa by 2028, with a pathway to ~10Mtpa and mine life to 2042, signal a strategic shift to larger-scale, longer-life operations that could enhance Fenix’s industry positioning and long-term shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Outlines Corporate Directory and Governance Framework
Feb 24, 2026

Fenix Resources Limited has released a corporate document outlining its board composition, executive roles, company secretary, auditors, share registry, bankers and stock exchange listing details. The report primarily serves as a formal corporate directory and table of contents for its condensed consolidated financial statements and related governance reports, rather than providing new operational or financial performance updates.

While the document does not disclose fresh strategic or market information, it reinforces the company’s established governance framework and regulatory compliance through audited financial reporting. This level of corporate transparency is important for shareholders and market participants, signalling adherence to ASX requirements and the presence of independent oversight in its financial and corporate affairs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Posts 419% Profit Surge on Strong Half-Year Revenue Growth
Feb 24, 2026

Fenix Resources Ltd reported a sharp turnaround in its half-year results to 31 December 2025, with revenue from continuing operations jumping 125% to $294.2 million compared with the prior corresponding period. Net profit attributable to owners surged 419% to $9.7 million, reflecting significantly improved operating performance and stronger market conditions.

The miner’s net tangible assets rose to $158.0 million, with net tangible assets per share edging up to $0.21 from $0.20 a year earlier, underscoring a modest strengthening of its balance sheet. The board reaffirmed its existing dividend policy, stressing its commitment to maintaining a robust financial position and rewarding shareholders when full-year profitability and funding needs allow, while confirming there were no changes in group control during the period.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Reaffirms Growth Path to 6Mtpa Iron Ore Output by FY28
Feb 10, 2026

Fenix Resources used its presentation at the Bell Potter Unearthed Virtual Conference to outline a growth trajectory targeting annual iron ore production of 6 million tonnes by fiscal 2028 and aiming for 10 million tonnes beyond that. The company’s expansion strategy is underpinned by previously disclosed mineral resource and ore reserve estimates at Iron Ridge, Shine, Beebyn-W11 and the 290-million-tonne Weld Range project, with management reaffirming that the assumptions supporting those estimates and its three-year production plan remain unchanged.

The update signals Fenix’s intention to scale from a small producer to a significant Western Australian iron ore player, leveraging existing port and logistics assets in the Mid-West to grow volumes and potentially improve unit economics. By confirming the validity of prior resource, reserve and scoping-study work, the company aims to give investors greater confidence in the durability of its mine plans and production targets, reinforcing its long-term growth narrative in a competitive seaborne iron ore market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Delivers Record Quarter and Lays Out Path to 10Mtpa Iron Ore Output
Jan 21, 2026

Fenix Resources reported a record December 2025 quarter with 1.24 million wet metric tonnes of iron ore shipped, a 40% increase on the prior quarter, while maintaining group C1 cash costs at A$75/wmt and lifting cash on hand to A$78.9 million. With Beebyn‑W11 now at steady-state production, updated FY26 guidance of 4.2–4.8 million tonnes at A$70–80/wmt, a three‑year plan to ramp up to 6 million tonnes per annum by 2028, and a Weld Range scoping study outlining a pathway to about 10 million tonnes per annum and mine life to 2042, the company signalled a step-change in long-term growth aspirations and reinforced its positioning as a scaling mid-tier iron ore producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.49 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Extends Iron Ore and Currency Hedging to 2027 to Support Growth Plan
Jan 18, 2026

Fenix Resources has extended its price protection strategy to June 2027 by hedging 1.32 million tonnes of iron ore at an average A$151.27 per tonne and adding US$105 million of Australian dollar call options to manage currency risk on US dollar–denominated sales. The expanded hedge and currency book are designed to lock in robust cash margins against a FY26 production target of 4.2–4.8 million tonnes at C1 costs of A$70–A$80/wmt, while preserving upside exposure to stronger iron ore prices and a weaker Australian dollar, thereby underpinning the company’s three-year plan to produce 15 million tonnes through FY28 and supporting the long-term growth case centered on the Weld Range expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.49 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Locks In A$151/t Iron Ore Hedges as It Accelerates Mid-West Expansion Plan
Jan 7, 2026

Fenix Resources has expanded its iron ore hedge book to 840,000 tonnes at an average price of A$151.09 per tonne through to December 2026, locking in a positive cashflow margin on a base level of production while preserving upside exposure to spot prices. The move follows quarterly shipments of more than 1.24 million tonnes, consistent with upgraded FY26 sales guidance of 4.2–4.8 million tonnes at C1 cash costs of A$70–A$80 per wet metric tonne FOB Geraldton, and aligns with a three-year plan targeting 15 million tonnes of output to FY28 and potential expansion to 6Mtpa. Together with the Weld Range Scoping Study, which points to a possible long-life, high-margin project and a 10Mtpa operation with significantly lower unit costs, the strengthened hedge position underpins Fenix’s growth and de-risking strategy as it advances a Definitive Feasibility Study on Weld Range and consolidates its position as a cost-competitive Mid-West iron ore producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.53 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Posts Record Quarter as Iron Ore Shipments and Cash Reserves Surge
Jan 4, 2026

Fenix Resources reported a record December 2025 quarter, shipping 1.24 million wet metric tonnes of iron ore across 21 vessels, marking its first quarter above one million tonnes and an implied annualised run-rate of about 4.9 million tonnes. The operational outperformance, driven by optimised Mid-West mining operations and efficient Newhaul haulage and port logistics, underpinned a strong financial result, with cash at bank rising by A$21.2 million to A$78.9 million even after capital expenditure, debt repayments and tax. With first-half FY26 shipments reaching 2.13 million tonnes, the company has reaffirmed its upgraded FY26 sales guidance of 4.2–4.8 million tonnes, reinforcing its growth trajectory and strengthening its position as a scalable mid-tier iron ore exporter.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.53 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Director John Welborn Increases On-Market Shareholding
Dec 30, 2025

Fenix Resources has disclosed that director John Paul Welborn increased his direct holding in the company by acquiring 250,000 fully paid ordinary shares via on‑market trades on 29 and 30 December 2025 for a total consideration of $119,750. Following the transaction, Welborn’s stake rose to 22.75 million shares while his 45 million performance rights remained unchanged, signalling continued personal financial commitment to the company and providing transparency for investors regarding board-level ownership changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.53 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Scoping Study Maps 10Mtpa Expansion at Weld Range to 2042
Dec 22, 2025

Fenix Resources has released a scoping study outlining a proposed expansion of its Weld Range Iron Ore Project, targeting a production increase from 6 million tonnes per annum in 2028 to about 10 million tonnes per annum by 2031, extending operations to 2042. The study indicates a substantial reduction in life-of-mine C1 cash costs to about A$55.4 per wet metric tonne FOB Geraldton, a pre-tax NPV of roughly A$1.2 billion, pre-tax IRR of about 60%, and cumulative pre-tax free cash flow of approximately A$2.5 billion, supported by a new 244km private haul road to improve logistics and margins, with most of the development capital not required until 2028 and further optimisation to be refined in a definitive feasibility study ahead of a final investment decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.53 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Unveils Ambitious Three-Year Iron Ore Production Plan
Dec 10, 2025

Fenix Resources Limited has announced a three-year production plan aimed at significantly increasing its iron ore output to 6 million tonnes per annum by 2028. This plan involves completing mining at the Iron Ridge and Shine sites and ramping up production at the Weld Range Project, specifically the Beebyn Hub. The company has upgraded its FY26 guidance to 4.2-4.8 million tonnes, with a focus on maintaining high-grade iron ore production and leveraging existing infrastructure. The plan is expected to be funded through operational cash flow and existing finance facilities, positioning Fenix for future growth and expansion in partnership with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Issues 500,000 Performance Rights
Dec 1, 2025

Fenix Resources Limited announced the issuance of 500,000 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize its workforce, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and aligning employee interests with company goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Fenix Resources Announces Successful AGM Outcomes
Nov 27, 2025

Fenix Resources Ltd announced the successful outcomes of its Annual General Meeting, where key resolutions, including the adoption of the Remuneration Report and the re-election of Director Craig Mitchell, were passed. These resolutions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to strong governance and leadership as it continues to expand its operations in the iron ore industry, supported by strategic partnerships and a focus on community engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FEX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fenix Resources Limited stock, see the AU:FEX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 12, 2025