Grange Resources Limited (GRR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$254.61M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.55
• Revenue Growth: -13.54%
• EPS Growth: -56.86%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 581
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 1,157,338,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 715,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,373,734
• PEG Ratio: -0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.69
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.24 ▼(-2.40% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/01/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/01/26

The score is supported most by financial resilience from an exceptionally low-debt balance sheet and a low P/E valuation. Offsetting these positives are weaker recent operating performance (contracting revenue, sharply lower margins/returns, and negative 2025 free cash flow) and bearish/weak technical signals (negative MACD, RSI below 50, and price below key short-to-mid-term moving averages).

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Extremely low leverage and an 81.55% equity ratio give Grange structural financial resilience. Over the next 2-6 months this supports capital allocation for maintenance or incremental projects, lowers refinancing risk through cycles, and preserves optionality versus highly leveraged peers.

Cash generation

High free cash flow relative to net income and strong operating cash conversion indicate durable cash generation capability. This underpins liquidity, funds capex and working capital from operations, and provides a buffer against commodity price swings that can persist for months.

Operating efficiency

Sustained double-digit EBITDA and positive EBIT margins reflect efficient pellet production and cost control in processing/logistics. These margins support profitability across cycles, helping the company cover fixed costs and preserve cash flows even if volumes or prices soften.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline

Material revenue contraction reduces scale benefits and may raise per-unit costs over coming months. Sustained top-line weakness limits reinvestment capacity, constrains margin recovery, and increases execution risk for projects that depend on steady shipment volumes.

Margin compression

Sharp declines in gross and net margins point to price or cost pressures that materially reduce earnings power. If these compressions persist, they will erode free cash flow resilience, limit ability to invest in productivity, and heighten sensitivity to commodity cycles.

Return on equity weakness

A declining ROE signals weaker returns on shareholder capital and lower capital efficiency. Over the medium term this can constrain internal funding for growth, reduce attractiveness for reinvestment, and pressure management to find higher-return investments or restructure operations.

Grange Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grange Resources Limited (GRR) is an Australian mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of iron ore. The company operates in the mining sector and is known for its significant iron ore projects, including the Savage River mine in Tasmania. Grange Resources focuses on producing high-quality iron ore pellets and concentrates, catering to both domestic and international markets. The company is committed to sustainable mining practices and aims to enhance its operational efficiency while maintaining a strong commitment to environmental stewardship.

How the Company Makes Money

Grange Resources Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore products, including iron ore pellets and concentrates. The company's key revenue stream comes from contracts with international steel manufacturers and traders, who require high-quality iron ore for steel production. Additionally, Grange Resources benefits from long-term supply agreements and strategic partnerships that help stabilize its revenue and provide a consistent customer base. The company's earnings are influenced by global iron ore prices, demand from the steel industry, and its operational efficiency. Any fluctuations in these factors can significantly impact the company's financial performance.

Grange Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Very strong balance sheet with near-zero leverage supports resilience, but operating fundamentals have weakened: revenue has declined in 2024–2025, margins/returns compressed sharply versus 2021–2023, and 2025 free cash flow turned negative despite solid operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Profitability remains positive in 2025 (net margin ~9.8%), but earnings power has cooled materially versus 2021–2023 when margins were much higher. Revenue has drifted down over the last two years (2024 and 2025 both negative growth), and operating profitability compressed (EBIT margin ~10.9% in 2025 vs ~35–59% in 2021–2023), pointing to a weaker pricing/cost environment. Strength is continued profitability; weakness is the clear downshift in margins and growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is exceptionally conservative with minimal debt (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.0002) and a large equity base (~$1.11B), which provides strong financial flexibility and resilience through commodity cycles. Returns on equity have declined meaningfully (from very high levels in 2020–2022 to ~4.2% in 2025), reflecting weaker profitability rather than leverage risk. Strength is near-zero leverage; weakness is the reduced return generation on the equity base.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is solid in 2025 (~$133M) and exceeds net income (cash generation is stronger than accounting earnings), but free cash flow turned negative in 2025 (~-$22M) after being positive in 2024, showing higher reinvestment or working-capital drag. The swing in free cash flow (and negative free cash flow relative to net income in 2025) adds volatility and reduces near-term financial optionality despite healthy operating inflows.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	477.85M	520.80M	614.74M	594.55M	781.66M
Gross Profit	59.41M	61.32M	199.51M	239.40M	435.55M
EBITDA	171.75M	243.74M	274.53M	308.67M	538.92M
Net Income	46.60M	58.55M	150.10M	171.74M	322.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.44B	1.30B	1.24B	1.10B	1.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	275.15M	298.05M	282.61M	298.61M	464.69M
Total Debt	261.00K	1.32M	2.21M	6.48M	17.45M
Total Liabilities	335.10M	240.06M	212.82M	194.09M	249.02M
Stockholders Equity	1.11B	1.06B	1.03B	904.13M	871.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-21.91M	40.13M	8.92M	-27.63M	418.09M
Operating Cash Flow	132.51M	239.92M	267.11M	196.94M	498.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-109.52M	-253.38M	-241.90M	-396.24M	-79.57M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.79M	-30.73M	-25.19M	-145.55M	-165.25M

Grange Resources Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GRR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.24, below the 50-day MA of 0.26, and above the 200-day MA of 0.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GRR.

Grange Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRR	62 Neutral	AU$254.61M	5.46	4.28%	―	-13.54%	-56.86%
FEX	62 Neutral	AU$290.54M	22.75	3.14%	2.17%	21.95%	-84.84%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CBE	54 Neutral	AU$118.38M	-40.20	-6.39%	―	―	37.04%
CTM	51 Neutral	AU$389.89M	-17.60	-53.29%	―	―	―
DRE	50 Neutral	AU$146.70M	-5.42	-36.29%	―	―	-166.67%

Grange Resources Limited Corporate Events

Grange Resources Emphasises Reconciliation in 2025 Sustainability Report

Grange Resources has released a 2025 Sustainability Report that underscores its commitment to reconciliation with Tasmanian Aboriginal communities. The company formally acknowledges the traditional custodians of the lands and waterways where it operates, including the lowreener, tarkiner, and tommeginer peoples, and recognises their enduring cultural connection to Country.

The report highlights Grange Resources’ pledge to engage with local Aboriginal communities through ongoing dialogue, truth telling, and collaboration. This stance positions the company as seeking a more socially responsible role in Tasmania’s mining sector, with an emphasis on cultural respect, community relationships, and long-term social impact alongside its operational activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRR) stock is a Buy with a A$0.28 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grange Resources Limited stock, see the AU:GRR Stock Forecast page.

Grange Resources Issues 2025 Full-Year Financial Report

Grange Resources Limited has released its financial report for the year ended 31 December 2025, detailing the group’s consolidated results, financial position, cash flows, and changes in equity. The report, authorised by the board on 26 February 2026, formalises the company’s audited financial disclosures to shareholders and the market.

The document confirms Grange’s structure as a group of controlled entities and outlines statutory reporting components, supported by an independent auditor’s report. While specific performance figures are not included in the release excerpt, the publication of the full-year financial statements provides stakeholders with an updated view of the company’s financial health and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRR) stock is a Buy with a A$0.28 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grange Resources Limited stock, see the AU:GRR Stock Forecast page.

Grange Resources posts lower 2025 profit and revenue, holds back dividend

Grange Resources has reported lower full-year results for the 12 months to 31 December 2025, with revenue from ordinary activities falling 8% to $477.9 million compared with the prior year. Profit from ordinary activities after tax attributable to members declined 21% to $46.6 million, reflecting a more challenging operating or pricing environment, although net tangible asset backing per share improved from $0.92 to $0.96.

The company declared no final dividend for the year, signalling a cautious approach to capital management despite the stronger asset backing. Grange reported no gains or losses of control over entities, no associates or material joint ventures, and noted that no subsequent events have arisen since year-end that would significantly affect future operations, while confirming that the audited accounts underpin these preliminary results.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRR) stock is a Buy with a A$0.28 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grange Resources Limited stock, see the AU:GRR Stock Forecast page.

Grange Resources Lifts Production and Cuts Costs in Strong December Quarter

Grange Resources reported a strong December 2025 quarter, highlighting continued leading safety performance with 967 days without a lost time injury and robust operational results at its Savage River operations. Concentrate production rose to 623kt and pellet production exceeded plan, supported by higher-grade ore from Centre Pit and the cutback of North Pit, while unit cash operating costs fell to A$140.57/t, enhancing margins despite slightly lower pellet sales due to a shipping delay. Average realised prices remained broadly stable in Australian dollar terms, and the company maintained a solid financial position with cash and liquid investments of A$275.15 million and higher trade receivables, while advancing project financing and technical due diligence for the North Pit Underground development, underscoring its focus on sustaining and growing future production.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRR) stock is a Buy with a A$0.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grange Resources Limited stock, see the AU:GRR Stock Forecast page.

Grange Resources Files Final Director’s Interest Notice for Departing Board Member

Grange Resources Limited has announced the cessation of director Alice Shen’s appointment as of 30 December 2025, lodging a Final Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX in accordance with listing rule 3.19A.3. The notice confirms that Shen held no relevant interests in the company’s securities, either directly or indirectly, and had no interests in any related contracts, indicating a straightforward board departure with no immediate implications for the company’s capital structure or governance-related shareholdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRR) stock is a Buy with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grange Resources Limited stock, see the AU:GRR Stock Forecast page.

Grange Resources Announces Resignation of Non-Executive Director Alice Shen

Grange Resources Limited, an Australian iron ore producer serving domestic and international markets, operates within the broader resources and commodities sector. The company has announced the immediate resignation of non-executive director Alice Shen due to ongoing work commitments, with the board acknowledging her contributions since her appointment in December 2023 and extending well wishes, a change that adjusts the company’s board composition but does not signal any stated shift in strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRR) stock is a Buy with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grange Resources Limited stock, see the AU:GRR Stock Forecast page.