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EarlyPay Limited (AU:EPY)
ASX:EPY
Australian Market

EarlyPay Limited (EPY) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:EPY

EarlyPay Limited

(Sydney:EPY)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.17
▼(-9.47% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:09/11/25
EarlyPay Limited's overall stock score reflects a balance of strong operational efficiency and stable technical indicators, offset by challenges in revenue growth and high leverage. The stock's valuation is reasonable, with a moderate P/E ratio and an attractive dividend yield. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the score.
Positive Factors
High operating margins
Sustainably high EBIT and EBITDA margins signal efficient core operations and pricing power in EarlyPay's financing business. Strong operating profitability provides an ongoing buffer against revenue volatility, supports reinvestment into platform/tech, and aids ability to service debt and fund growth without immediate external capital.
Strong free cash flow relative to income
A near‑par free cash flow to net income ratio implies reported earnings largely convert to cash, indicating high quality of earnings and real cash generation. This durability supports recurring financing operations, dividend capacity or reinvestment, reducing reliance on short‑term capital markets for working capital.
SME-focused fintech model with partnerships
EarlyPay's business model—invoice and supply‑chain financing targeted at SMEs—leverages structural demand for cashflow solutions. Strategic partnerships expand distribution and product access, creating durable channels for fee and interest income and positioning the firm within a growing, recurring‑need market segment.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trends
Persisting negative revenue growth undermines operating leverage and questions demand traction for core financing products. If revenue contraction continues, the business may face margin pressure over time, reduced ability to cover fixed costs, and weaker prospects for scaling fee and interest income sustainably.
High financial leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio above 3 indicates significant leverage that increases interest burden and reduces financial flexibility. Over a multi‑month horizon, high leverage heightens vulnerability to cashflow swings, limits capacity for opportunistic investments, and raises refinancing risk if market conditions tighten.
Weak operating cash conversion and FCF volatility
Very low operating cash flow to net income and a sharp decline in free cash flow growth signal inconsistent cash conversion. This structural cash volatility can strain liquidity, complicate debt servicing and growth funding, and may force reliance on external financing despite healthy accounting margins.

EarlyPay Limited (EPY) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

EarlyPay Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEarlypay Limited offers financial solutions to businesses in Australia. It operates through Invoice Finance, Equipment Finance, and Other Services segments. The company offers invoice factoring and discounting, and clean energy finance services, as well as business line of credit. It also provides equipment finance services for old and new equipment, such as sale back of owned or partially owned equipment, private sales, and mid-term financing. In addition, the company offers employment solutions comprising labor sourcing and project management; and trade finance services. Further, it operates Skippr, an online platform that provides finance solutions to SME's. The company was formerly known as CML Group Limited and changed its name to Earlypay Limited in November 2020. Earlypay Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyEarlyPay Limited makes money primarily through fee-based revenue generated from its invoice financing services. The company charges its clients a service fee, which is typically a percentage of the invoice value, for advancing funds against unpaid invoices. Key revenue streams include fees from invoice factoring, where EarlyPay purchases the invoices at a discount, and invoice discounting, where businesses retain control over their sales ledger but receive financing based on outstanding invoices. EarlyPay may also earn interest on the funds advanced to clients and could have significant partnerships with financial institutions to manage funding requirements. The company's earnings are influenced by the volume of invoices financed and the structure of their fee agreements.

EarlyPay Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
EarlyPay Limited demonstrates strong operational efficiency with high EBIT and EBITDA margins, but faces challenges with revenue growth and high leverage. The balance sheet reflects significant debt levels, which could impact financial flexibility. Cash flow generation is relatively stable, but recent declines in free cash flow growth warrant attention. The company should focus on improving revenue growth and managing leverage to enhance financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
EarlyPay Limited has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has a strong EBIT margin of 41.35% and an EBITDA margin of 47.76% for the latest year, indicating efficient operational management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 5.63%, and there is a concerning negative revenue growth rate of -4.41%. This suggests challenges in maintaining revenue levels, which could impact future profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.19, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk in terms of financial stability. The return on equity is modest at 3.87%, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 23.54%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -29.70%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.96, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.065, suggesting potential challenges in converting income into cash.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue50.63M50.93M54.56M60.54M25.95M42.51M
Gross Profit32.50M30.08M40.62M41.48M6.28M24.96M
EBITDA19.55M24.32M25.66M10.47M27.32M22.06M
Net Income1.55M2.87M2.45M-7.74M13.22M7.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets319.67M314.61M314.04M360.30M492.83M376.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.90M37.56M40.13M52.99M52.71M44.77M
Total Debt245.94M236.32M236.72M280.36M293.97M207.41M
Total Liabilities249.57M240.56M241.43M286.81M407.74M317.92M
Stockholders Equity70.10M74.05M72.61M73.48M85.09M58.51M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.02M8.79M8.24M8.30M11.95M4.39M
Operating Cash Flow7.05M9.12M9.33M9.21M12.68M4.81M
Investing Cash Flow-7.80M-9.73M24.39M11.72M-84.23M-37.73M
Financing Cash Flow4.21M-1.96M-46.58M-20.65M79.49M39.49M

EarlyPay Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.19
Price Trends
50DMA
0.18
Negative
100DMA
0.20
Negative
200DMA
0.20
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
30.56
Neutral
STOCH
40.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EPY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.17, above the 50-day MA of 0.18, and below the 200-day MA of 0.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:EPY.

EarlyPay Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
AU$41.45M28.073.91%4.27%-6.67%22.09%
58
Neutral
AU$89.49M9.2915.56%7.92%
52
Neutral
AU$112.09M7.4012.72%-0.51%
43
Neutral
AU$45.72M-4.13-19.44%-2.35%13.33%
43
Neutral
AU$81.26M-1.61-42.59%-9.56%-392.31%
40
Underperform
AU$15.30M-2.63-26.29%8.28%84.45%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:EPY
EarlyPay Limited
0.16
-0.03
-15.79%
AU:HMY
Harmoney Corp Ltd
0.86
0.26
42.15%
AU:WZR
Wisr Ltd.
0.03
>-0.01
-13.33%
AU:BTN
Butn Limited
0.04
-0.07
-63.64%
AU:PNC
Pioneer Credit Ltd
0.71
0.25
56.67%
AU:MME
MoneyMe Ltd.
0.10
-0.05
-33.33%

EarlyPay Limited Corporate Events

Earlypay updates ASX on progress of on‑market share buy‑back
Mar 4, 2026

Earlypay Ltd has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on‑market share buy‑back of ordinary fully paid shares under code EPY. The update, dated 5 March 2026, reports the cumulative and daily number of shares repurchased as part of a program first notified in November 2024.

The company disclosed that a total of 8,026,545 shares had been bought back before the previous trading day, with a further 81,554 shares repurchased on that day. The continued execution of the buy‑back signals management’s ongoing capital management initiative, potentially affecting the company’s share count and capital structure for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.16 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay advances on‑market buy‑back with over 8 million shares repurchased
Mar 3, 2026

EarlyPay Ltd, an Australian financial services provider listed on the ASX under ticker EPY, offers funding and working capital solutions to businesses and has ordinary fully paid shares as its primary listed security. The company is engaged in ongoing capital management through an on‑market share buy‑back program, progressively reducing its share count as disclosed in daily notifications.

In its latest update, EarlyPay reported that it had repurchased a cumulative 7,001,905 shares before the previous trading day and bought back an additional 1,024,640 shares on the previous day. This continued execution of the buy‑back may support earnings per share and signals management’s active approach to optimising the capital structure, with potential implications for shareholder value and liquidity in EPY shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay updates market on ongoing on‑market share buy‑back
Mar 2, 2026

EarlyPay Ltd, an ASX-listed provider of working capital and invoice finance solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises, focuses on improving clients’ cash flow by advancing funds against outstanding receivables. The company operates in the non-bank lending space, providing alternative financing options to businesses seeking flexible capital.

EarlyPay has reported an update to its on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares under ASX code EPY. The company disclosed that a total of 6,776,546 shares had been repurchased prior to the previous trading day, with an additional 225,359 shares bought back on the previous day, indicating continued execution of its capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Continues On-Market Share Buy-Back Program
Mar 1, 2026

EarlyPay Ltd has an on-market share buy-back program in place for its ordinary fully paid shares, as disclosed to the Australian Securities Exchange under code EPY. The latest notification confirms the company continues to actively repurchase its stock as part of an approved capital management initiative.

The update dated 2 March 2026 reports that EarlyPay bought back 250,001 shares on the previous trading day, bringing total repurchases under the program to 6,526,545 shares to date. This ongoing buy-back reduces the number of shares on issue and may support earnings per share and shareholder value, signalling management’s confidence in the company’s prospects and balance sheet strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Updates Market on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back
Feb 26, 2026

EarlyPay Ltd has continued its on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid securities, updating the market with a daily buy-back notification as of 27 February 2026. The company reported that a total of 6,118,494 shares had been repurchased prior to the previous day, with an additional 408,051 shares bought back on the previous trading day, indicating an ongoing capital management initiative that may support earnings per share and signal confidence in the company’s valuation.

The latest notification, which amends earlier disclosures first lodged in November 2024 and last updated in January 2026, confirms that the buy-back remains active and focused on the EPY ordinary share class. This sustained on-market repurchase activity suggests EarlyPay is prioritising shareholder returns and balance sheet optimisation, with potential implications for the company’s free float and liquidity as the buy-back progresses.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

Earlypay profit falls as higher costs and weaker utilisation force guidance rethink
Feb 26, 2026

Earlypay Limited reported a 32% decline in underlying net profit after tax to $1.8 million for the six months to 31 December 2025, despite net revenue rising 6% to $18.2 million and Funds in Use edging up 4% to $268 million. Earnings per share fell to 0.7 cents, while underlying operating expenses increased 7%, credit impairment and recovery costs rose to $1.7 million, and surplus capital stood at about $8 million.

The company withdrew its earlier FY26 earnings guidance after November accounts indicated profits would fall materially short of prior targets, citing weaker-than-expected invoice finance utilisation, higher implementation and product investment costs, and increased provisioning in equipment finance. Management now expects second-half earnings to be broadly in line with the first half, with a softer revenue baseline from lower utilisation, a persistently higher cost base due to ongoing system migration and distribution investment, and credit loss expense assumed to remain consistent with H1 levels, even as invoice finance margins improve and credit performance in that portfolio remains solid.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Corrects Appendix 3H to Clarify December Share Cancellations
Jan 6, 2026

EarlyPay Ltd has issued an updated Appendix 3H notification to correct an error in a previous filing regarding the cessation of securities. The company clarified that its 6 January 2026 submission mistakenly double-counted share cancellations already disclosed in November 2025, and the revised document now only reflects cancellations occurring between 5 and 31 December 2025, with the number of cancelled shares amended accordingly, improving the accuracy and transparency of its issued capital reporting for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Cancels 10.9 Million Shares Following On-Market Buy-Back
Jan 6, 2026

EarlyPay Ltd has cancelled 10,900,043 fully paid ordinary shares as part of an on-market buy-back completed on 31 December 2025, according to a notification of cessation of securities lodged with the ASX. The reduction in issued capital may enhance earnings per share and capital management efficiency, potentially improving shareholder value and signalling management’s confidence in the company’s underlying financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Updates Market on Progress of Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back
Jan 1, 2026

EarlyPay Ltd, listed on the ASX under the code EPY, has announced an update to its ongoing on-market share buy-back program. The current buy-back focuses on the company’s ordinary fully paid shares.

The company reported that a total of 6,078,173 shares had been repurchased prior to the previous trading day, with a further 40,321 shares bought back on the previous day, as part of a daily on-market buy-back first notified in November 2024. The continued execution of the buy-back suggests an ongoing capital management strategy that may support earnings per share and signal management’s confidence in the company’s valuation to shareholders and the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

Earlypay Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy-Back
Dec 31, 2025

Earlypay Ltd has provided an updated daily notification on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares (EPY) on the ASX. As of 31 December 2025, the company reported that it has repurchased a cumulative total of 6,074,020 shares prior to the previous trading day and bought back a further 4,153 shares on the previous day, signalling continued execution of its capital management strategy and potential implications for earnings per share and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Provides Daily Update on On-Market Share Buy-Back
Dec 28, 2025

EarlyPay Ltd, listed on the ASX under the code EPY, has an on-market share buy-back in place for its ordinary fully paid shares.

The company has updated the market with a daily notification showing that it repurchased 1,976,077 shares on the previous trading day, bringing the total number of shares bought back under the current program to 4,097,943, as part of its ongoing capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

Earlypay pulls FY26 earnings guidance amid rising costs and credit losses
Dec 22, 2025

Earlypay Limited has withdrawn its FY26 earnings guidance, which had forecast earnings per share 15–20% above FY25 levels, citing evolving trading conditions and increased downside risks. The company flagged higher and longer‑lasting implementation costs for its new invoice finance loan management system, increased short‑term investment in product and distribution to drive funds-in-use growth, and elevated credit losses in its equipment finance portfolio. While funds in use remain higher than in June and net revenue margins and credit performance in invoice finance are described as robust, slower growth and utilisation in December are weighing on expectations. The board plans to issue updated earnings guidance after first-half results in late February, with management emphasising that current spending is intended to build scale, resilience and future profitability, even if the pay-off is taking longer than shareholders had hoped.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Limited Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
Dec 9, 2025

EarlyPay Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 77,528 ordinary fully paid securities bought back on the previous day, adding to the cumulative total of 7,865,596 securities repurchased. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value, potentially impacting its market positioning by signaling confidence in its financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Limited Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Dec 8, 2025

EarlyPay Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 541,711 ordinary fully paid securities bought back on the previous day, adding to the cumulative total of 7,323,885 securities repurchased. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

EarlyPay Limited Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Dec 8, 2025

EarlyPay Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 247,998 ordinary fully paid securities bought back on the previous day, adding to the cumulative total of 7,075,887 securities. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EPY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EarlyPay Limited stock, see the AU:EPY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 11, 2025