Cogstate Ltd (CGS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$367.13M
• Dividend Yield: 0.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 355.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): -0.18
• Revenue Growth: 21.47%
• EPS Growth: 89.09%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 147
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 171,554,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 327,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 355,934
• PEG Ratio: 1.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$3.03
• Price Target Upside: 19.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.07
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$59.93M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.50 ▼(-1.19% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

Score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (revenue and free-cash-flow declines despite strong margins and a very solid balance sheet) and an encouraging earnings outlook with improving contracted revenue/backlog and expected H2 margin recovery. Technical indicators are neutral-to-soft and valuation is not especially compelling, keeping the overall score in the mid-range.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Very low leverage and a sizable cash balance provide durable financial optionality for a clinical‑services business with lumpy revenues. This balance sheet supports working capital for multi‑site trials, targeted tech investment and defensive capacity to weather timing-driven revenue gaps.

High and sustainable margins

Consistently high gross and net margins reflect differentiated digital cognitive assessment IP and effective cost control. Margin leverage supports reinvestment in AI and delivery without eroding core profitability, underpinning long‑term cash generation as volumes scale.

Strong contracted backlog and forward visibility

A growing backlog and higher contracted revenue materially improve revenue visibility across multiple reporting periods. This durable pipeline reduces reliance on ad‑hoc sales, smooths near‑term revenue conversion and supports planned margin recovery and targeted investments.

Negative Factors

Recent sharp revenue decline

A steep annual revenue drop signals meaningful sensitivity to trial timing and contract mix. For a services firm tied to multi‑year CNS studies, such declines can persist through planning cycles, limiting reinvestment capacity and complicating multi‑period growth predictability.

Large free cash flow deterioration

A halving of free cash flow reduces internal funding for tech and delivery scale‑up and increases reliance on operational conversion of backlog. Even with positive operating cash flow to net income, sustained FCF weakness can constrain strategic flexibility and longer‑term R&D pacing.

Concentration and revenue timing risk

Dependence on large, episodic Alzheimer’s trials and variability in license fee recognition creates structural boom‑and‑bust revenue dynamics. This concentration increases revenue volatility and makes forecasting and margin stability contingent on continued diversification success.

Cogstate Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cogstate Ltd (CGS) is a global neuroscience technology company focused on the development and commercialization of cognitive assessment tools and solutions. Operating primarily within the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, Cogstate specializes in providing cognitive testing services that are used in clinical trials and clinical practice to measure cognitive function in various populations, including patients with neurological disorders and those undergoing drug trials. The company's core products include digital cognitive assessments that facilitate the evaluation of cognitive performance and the monitoring of cognitive health over time.

How the Company Makes Money

Cogstate generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cognitive assessment products and services to pharmaceutical companies, contract research organizations (CROs), and healthcare providers. Its revenue model is based on service fees for conducting cognitive assessments in clinical trials, licensing fees for its proprietary cognitive testing software, and subscription fees for access to its digital platforms. Significant partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies for the integration of Cogstate's cognitive assessments in drug development programs contribute to its earnings. Additionally, the company may benefit from government grants and research funding aimed at advancing cognitive health technologies.

Cogstate Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong balance sheet (very low leverage, solid ROE) and healthy profitability metrics, but the latest year showed a sharp revenue decline and a large drop in free cash flow, raising near-term growth and reinvestment risk.

Income Statement

Cogstate Ltd has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a significant revenue decline of 34.2% in the latest year, which is concerning. However, the company has maintained a strong gross profit margin of 60.4% and a net profit margin of 20.0%, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Cogstate Ltd demonstrates financial stability with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity is robust at 21.2%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 73.9%, highlighting a strong capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges with a 50.2% decline in free cash flow, which could impact future investments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.13, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.83, suggesting that the company is generating adequate free cash flow relative to its earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.29M	50.81M	66.27M	60.14M	62.03M	43.82M
Gross Profit	29.68M	30.69M	37.60M	12.29M	21.63M	10.40M
EBITDA	24.12M	16.93M	9.90M	8.46M	18.07M	8.21M
Net Income	16.76M	10.14M	5.45M	5.30M	10.37M	7.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	101.99M	64.77M	57.84M	81.22M	84.99M	68.44M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	51.06M	35.56M	45.11M	43.08M	44.50M	31.49M
Total Debt	1.07M	638.90K	672.72K	569.21K	2.05M	2.32M
Total Liabilities	24.62M	16.88M	25.33M	24.60M	37.12M	39.43M
Stockholders Equity	77.37M	47.90M	40.92M	56.62M	47.88M	29.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.85M	8.40M	7.12M	-1.53M	8.54M	17.24M
Operating Cash Flow	15.61M	11.48M	10.00M	1.76M	13.45M	21.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.46M	-2.24M	-1.68M	-3.29M	-4.91M	-3.52M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.11M	-3.79M	-4.91M	-1.33M	1.05M	-246.11K

Cogstate Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, above the 50-day MA of 2.21, and above the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CGS.

Cogstate Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALC	67 Neutral	AU$131.61M	26.51	1.89%	―	10.06%	―
CGS	66 Neutral	AU$367.13M	13.97	22.84%	0.88%	21.47%	89.09%
IME	58 Neutral	AU$21.89M	-7.11	-27.84%	―	6.77%	-8.45%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PCK	45 Neutral	AU$35.53M	-3.13	-8647.54%	―	25.98%	22.10%
SHG	43 Neutral	AU$80.50M	-6.64	―	―	―	―

Cogstate Ltd Corporate Events

Cogstate Cancels 180,043 Shares Under On-Market Buy-Back

Cogstate Ltd, listed on the ASX under the code CGS, has cancelled 180,043 fully paid ordinary shares as part of an on-market share buy-back completed on 14 January 2026. The reduction in issued capital through this buy-back is likely aimed at optimizing Cogstate’s capital structure and may enhance value for remaining shareholders by slightly increasing their proportional ownership, although the announcement provides no additional operational or strategic detail around the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Sets Date for FY26 Half-Year Results and Investor Webcast

Cogstate Ltd has scheduled the release of its half-year results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 19 February 2026, and will host a live webcast and Q&A for investors on the same day, led by senior executives including the CEO, CFO and Executive Vice President for Clinical Trials. The company will also make a recording of the presentation available via its investor centre within 24 hours, underscoring its efforts to maintain active engagement and transparency with shareholders as it pursues growth in digital cognitive assessment and clinical trial solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Tightens Compliance After Late Disclosure of Director Share Purchase

Cogstate has disclosed a change in director Kim Wenn’s beneficial interest in the company’s shares, relating to a purchase made on 15 December 2025 that was notified to the company later than required due to personal circumstances. The company emphasised that its continuous disclosure and securities trading policies remain robust, outlined the internal process used to prepare and lodge director interest notices within the ASX’s five‑day deadline, and noted that both Cogstate and Ms Wenn have implemented additional safeguards and personal processes to prevent similar administrative oversights and reinforce compliance with ASX listing obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$3.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Seeks ASX Quotation for 110,000 Newly Issued Shares

Cogstate Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 110,000 additional ordinary fully paid shares, following the exercise of options or conversion of other securities. The new shares, issued in two tranches in late October 2025, modestly increase the company’s quoted capital base and reflect ongoing utilisation of equity-based instruments by stakeholders, though the announcement does not indicate any material change to operations or strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$3.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Reports Lapse of 17,932 Performance Rights After Unmet Conditions

Cogstate Ltd, an ASX-listed cognitive assessment and healthcare technology provider, focuses on delivering digital tools and services to support clinical research and diagnosis in neurology and related therapeutic areas. The company has notified the market that a total of 17,932 performance rights (ASX code: CGSAAI) have lapsed in October 2025 because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or could no longer be satisfied, resulting in a reduction of potential future share issuance but no immediate cash impact, and signalling that certain performance hurdles under its incentive arrangements were not achieved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$3.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Issues Daily Update on On-Market Share Buy-Back

Cogstate Ltd, listed on the ASX under the code CGS, has announced an update to its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The company is steadily repurchasing stock on a daily basis as part of this capital management initiative.

In its latest notification dated 22 December 2025, Cogstate reported that it had bought back a total of 176,961 shares prior to the previous trading day and a further 3,082 shares on the previous day. The continued execution of the buy-back signals management’s focus on returning capital to shareholders and may support the company’s share price by reducing the number of shares on issue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$3.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Reports Daily Activity Under On‑Market Share Buy-Back

Cogstate Ltd, listed on the ASX under the code CGS, has initiated an on‑market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid shares, using its balance sheet to repurchase stock on the exchange. While the announcement provides limited operational details, the daily notification discloses that 176,961 shares were bought back on the previous trading day under a buy-back program first flagged in November 2025, indicating active capital management aimed at potentially enhancing shareholder value and signaling confidence in the company’s equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$3.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Ltd Projects Strong Sales Growth Amid Revenue Timing Delays

Cogstate Ltd has updated its financial guidance for the half-year ending December 2025, highlighting strong sales contract performance despite timing-related revenue deferrals impacting short-term revenue and profitability. The company expects to execute sales contracts worth $37-$40 million, marking significant growth compared to the previous period. However, revenue recognition is delayed due to late contract signings and a shift in revenue mix, with service fee revenue expected to grow over the trial’s life. Despite reduced revenue expectations for 1H26, Cogstate remains confident in its growth strategy, driven by investments in new offerings and expansion into psychiatry and mood disorders, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. The company anticipates improved margins in 2H26 as revenue from increased sales contracts is recognized, reinforcing its competitive position and growth potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$3.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.

Cogstate Projects Significant Growth and Expands Global Reach with Strategic Initiatives

Cogstate Ltd has announced its participation in the Barrenjoey Emerging Growth Conference, highlighting its strategic initiatives and market growth projections. The company anticipates significant growth in its CNS clinical trial solutions segment and the broader eCOA market, driven by advances in decentralized trial methods and digital assessments. Cogstate is expanding into new therapeutic areas and enhancing its global reach through strategic partnerships and innovations in cognitive testing. The integration of AI into its platform aims to improve data quality and provide real-time insights. The recent strategic partnership with Medidata is expected to enhance Cogstate’s eCOA solutions with AI and advanced analytics. The company has reported a substantial increase in sales opportunities, reflecting its expanding customer base and entry into new indications.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGS) stock is a Buy with a A$3.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogstate Ltd stock, see the AU:CGS Stock Forecast page.