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Cogstate Ltd (AU:CGS)
:CGS

Cogstate Ltd (CGS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:CGS

Cogstate Ltd

(OTC:CGS)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.50
▼(-1.19% Downside)
Cogstate Ltd's overall stock score reflects strong earnings call performance and strategic growth initiatives, offset by technical indicators suggesting bearish trends and moderate valuation. The company's solid financial foundation is challenged by declining revenue and free cash flow.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The 22% revenue growth indicates strong demand for Cogstate's cognitive assessment tools, enhancing its market position and supporting future expansion.
Strategic Partnerships
The partnership with Medidata expands Cogstate's reach into CNS indications, strengthening its competitive advantage and opening new revenue streams.
Product Innovation
Launching AI-powered products enhances Cogstate's technological edge, improving scalability and automation, which supports long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Decline in Healthcare Revenue
The decline in healthcare revenue may limit growth in this segment, affecting overall revenue diversification and stability.
Free Cash Flow Decline
A significant decline in free cash flow could constrain Cogstate's ability to invest in growth initiatives and maintain financial flexibility.
Potential Margin Pressure
Margin pressure from increased investments could impact profitability, affecting Cogstate's ability to sustain high profit margins in the near term.

Cogstate Ltd (CGS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Cogstate Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCogstate Limited, a neuroscience technology company, provides computerized cognitive tests and electronic clinical outcome assessment solutions. The company's cognitive services include project management, data management, scientific consulting, statistical analysis, scales procurement, rater training, and monitoring solutions. It operates in Clinical Trials and Healthcare segments. The Clinical Trials segment provides technology and associated services that are used to quantify the effect of diseases and drugs, and devices or other interventions on human subjects participating in clinical trials primarily conducted by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. The Healthcare segment provides Cognigram, a system for regular and standardized testing to assist primary care physicians and/or hospitals in the early detection of cognitive decline. As of June 30, 2022, it had participated in approximately 1,800 academic research. Cogstate Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyCogstate generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cognitive assessment products and services to pharmaceutical companies, contract research organizations (CROs), and healthcare providers. Its revenue model is based on service fees for conducting cognitive assessments in clinical trials, licensing fees for its proprietary cognitive testing software, and subscription fees for access to its digital platforms. Significant partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies for the integration of Cogstate's cognitive assessments in drug development programs contribute to its earnings. Additionally, the company may benefit from government grants and research funding aimed at advancing cognitive health technologies.

Cogstate Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 21, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Cogstate reported strong financial performance with significant revenue and profit growth. The company is expanding its market reach and capabilities through strategic partnerships and product innovations, particularly with its partnership with Medidata and the development of AI-powered products. However, there are challenges such as a decline in healthcare revenue and potential margin pressure due to increased investments.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Cogstate reported a total revenue of $53.1 million for the year, up 22% from the previous year. Clinical Trials revenue increased by 28% to $50.6 million. Profit before tax rose by 96% to $13.9 million, and profit after tax increased by 86% to $10.1 million.
High Margins and Cash Flow
The company achieved a gross margin of 61%, an EBITDA margin of 30%, and an EBIT margin of 25%. Operating cash inflow was $11.5 million, and the cash balance at the end of the financial year was $35.6 million.
Maiden Dividend Announcement
Cogstate declared its first fully franked dividend of AUD 0.02 per ordinary share. The company targets an annual dividend payout ratio between 20% and 50% of net profit after tax.
Expansion and New Contracts
The company signed $41.3 million worth of contracts for the June '25 financial year, up 53% from the previous year. An additional $14.1 million worth of contracts were signed in the first few weeks of FY '26.
Partnership with Medidata
Cogstate's partnership with Medidata has led to seven studies being jointly awarded, a strong sales pipeline with 42 open opportunities, and increased reach into CNS indications.
AI Development and Market Expansion
Cogstate is set to launch its first AI-powered products in FY '26 to support further automation and scalability. The company is also expanding into psychiatric and mood disorders.
Negative Updates
Decline in Healthcare Revenue
Healthcare revenue declined due to the renegotiation of the Eisai global licensing agreement, impacting the overall revenue growth.
Reduction in Full-Time Employees
The number of full-time employees decreased from 167 at June '24 to 159 at June '25, highlighting efficiency but also potential strain on resources.
Potential Margin Pressure
There is a possibility of a small decrease in margins from FY '25 to FY '26 due to increased investment in growth and expansion efforts.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Cogstate provided a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and strategic direction for the fiscal year 2025. The company reported a total revenue of $53.1 million, marking a 22% increase from the previous year, with Clinical Trials revenue specifically growing by 28% to $50.6 million. Profit before tax rose by 96% to $13.9 million, while profit after tax increased by 86% to $10.1 million. Cogstate also achieved a gross margin of 61%, an EBITDA margin of 30%, and an EBIT margin of 25%. The company noted an operating cash inflow of $11.5 million and ended the year with a cash balance of $35.6 million, even after a $4.8 million share buyback. Looking ahead, Cogstate highlighted several growth catalysts, including its partnership with Medidata, the launch of AI-powered products, and expansion into psychiatric and mood disorders. The company also declared its first fully franked dividend of AUD 0.02 per share.

Cogstate Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cogstate Ltd shows strong profitability and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, challenges include declining revenue and free cash flow, which could impact future growth and investment capabilities.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Cogstate Ltd has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a significant revenue decline of 34.2% in the latest year, which is concerning. However, the company has maintained a strong gross profit margin of 60.4% and a net profit margin of 20.0%, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Cogstate Ltd demonstrates financial stability with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity is robust at 21.2%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 73.9%, highlighting a strong capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals challenges with a 50.2% decline in free cash flow, which could impact future investments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.13, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.83, suggesting that the company is generating adequate free cash flow relative to its earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue84.63M50.81M66.27M60.14M62.03M43.82M
Gross Profit42.32M30.69M37.60M12.29M21.63M10.40M
EBITDA26.58M16.93M9.90M8.46M18.07M8.21M
Net Income16.15M10.14M5.45M5.30M10.37M7.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets64.77M64.77M57.84M81.22M84.99M68.44M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.56M35.56M45.11M43.08M44.50M31.49M
Total Debt469.92K638.90K672.72K569.21K2.05M2.32M
Total Liabilities16.88M16.88M25.33M24.60M37.12M39.43M
Stockholders Equity47.90M47.90M40.92M56.62M47.88M29.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow18.91M8.40M7.12M-1.53M8.54M17.24M
Operating Cash Flow19.40M11.48M10.00M1.76M13.45M21.61M
Investing Cash Flow-4.85M-2.24M-1.68M-3.29M-4.91M-3.52M
Financing Cash Flow-5.98M-3.79M-4.91M-1.33M1.05M-246.11K

Cogstate Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.53
Price Trends
50DMA
2.56
Negative
100DMA
2.19
Positive
200DMA
1.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Positive
RSI
30.68
Neutral
STOCH
59.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.55, below the 50-day MA of 2.56, and above the 200-day MA of 1.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CGS.

Cogstate Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
AU$379.29M24.1522.84%0.90%21.47%89.09%
64
Neutral
AU$126.24M78.331.89%10.06%
59
Neutral
AU$15.10M-3.26-27.84%6.77%-8.45%
55
Neutral
AU$74.13M-8.12-8647.54%25.98%22.10%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
40
Underperform
AU$16.45M-0.24-240.60%-48.41%-7200.00%
40
Underperform
AU$84.39M-11.89
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:CGS
Cogstate Ltd
2.14
0.94
78.93%
AU:MDR
MedAdvisor Limited
0.02
-0.28
-93.33%
AU:SHG
Singular Health Group Ltd
0.25
0.07
38.89%
AU:ALC
Alcidion Group Limited
0.11
0.05
83.33%
AU:IME
ImExHS Limited
0.36
0.00
0.00%
AU:PCK
PainChek Ltd
0.33
0.07
26.92%

Cogstate Ltd Corporate Events

Cogstate Projects Significant Growth and Expands Global Reach with Strategic Initiatives
Nov 24, 2025

Cogstate Ltd has announced its participation in the Barrenjoey Emerging Growth Conference, highlighting its strategic initiatives and market growth projections. The company anticipates significant growth in its CNS clinical trial solutions segment and the broader eCOA market, driven by advances in decentralized trial methods and digital assessments. Cogstate is expanding into new therapeutic areas and enhancing its global reach through strategic partnerships and innovations in cognitive testing. The integration of AI into its platform aims to improve data quality and provide real-time insights. The recent strategic partnership with Medidata is expected to enhance Cogstate’s eCOA solutions with AI and advanced analytics. The company has reported a substantial increase in sales opportunities, reflecting its expanding customer base and entry into new indications.

Cogstate Ltd Announces On-Market Buy-Back of Shares
Nov 11, 2025

Cogstate Ltd has announced an on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid securities, as per the notification released on November 11, 2025. This strategic move may impact the company’s stock value and market perception, potentially benefiting shareholders by increasing the value of remaining shares and demonstrating confidence in the company’s financial health.

Cogstate Ltd Extends Share Buyback Program
Nov 10, 2025

Cogstate Ltd has announced an extension of its share buyback program, initially set to conclude on November 10, 2025. This move indicates the company’s ongoing commitment to managing its capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value. By extending the buyback, Cogstate may be aiming to bolster its market position and signal confidence in its financial health, which could have positive implications for stakeholders.

Cogstate Ltd Completes Final Phase of Share Buy-Back Program
Nov 10, 2025

Cogstate Ltd has announced the final notification of its on-market buy-back program, with a total of 5,870,804 ordinary fully paid securities repurchased for a consideration of AUD 7,646,946.04. This buy-back is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure, potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in its financial position.

Cogstate Unveils Strategic Initiatives and Growth Projections at Shareholder Day
Nov 6, 2025

Cogstate Ltd held its inaugural Shareholder Day, highlighting its role as a digital disruptor in CNS disease clinical trials. The event showcased Cogstate’s technology solutions, strategic partnerships, and market growth opportunities. Key announcements included a strategic partnership with Medidata to enhance CNS clinical trials through AI and advanced analytics, and a projected growth of its CNS clinical trial solutions segment to $1.0–$1.3 billion by 2030. Cogstate is also expanding into new therapeutic areas and enhancing its technology and data quality capabilities to remain competitive and responsive to industry needs.

Cogstate Limited Announces Director’s Interest Change
Nov 3, 2025

Cogstate Limited announced a change in the interests of its director, Bradley O’Connor, specifically regarding an increase in performance rights. The director’s performance rights increased by 591,822, valued at approximately $1,047,525.94, as approved by shareholders at the recent AGM. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

Cogstate Ltd Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives
Nov 3, 2025

Cogstate Ltd has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move involves the allocation of performance rights to employees, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, potentially impacting the company’s internal operations by aligning employee incentives with company performance.

Cogstate Announces Director’s Change in Securities Holdings
Oct 20, 2025

Cogstate Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically for Bradley O’Connor, reflecting a shift in securities holdings. The change involved the sale of 338,429 ordinary shares and the exercise of 399,500 employee options, resulting in a new holding of 5,400,000 ordinary shares and 500,000 employee options. This adjustment in securities is part of the company’s ongoing management of its executive interests and could impact its market positioning and stakeholder perceptions.

Cogstate Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Oct 20, 2025

Cogstate Ltd has announced the quotation of 399,500 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), effective from October 17, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its capital structure and potentially strengthen its market position, offering stakeholders an opportunity to engage with the company’s growth trajectory.

Cogstate CEO Sells Shares to Exercise Options and Manage Financial Obligations
Oct 17, 2025

Cogstate Ltd announced that its CEO, Brad O’Connor, sold 338,429 shares to fund the exercise of 399,500 employee share options and to manage related debts and tax obligations. Following these transactions, Mr. O’Connor’s shareholding increased to 6,400,000 ordinary shares. This strategic move reflects the CEO’s commitment to maintaining a significant stake in the company while managing financial obligations, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

Cogstate Ltd Successfully Passes All Resolutions at 2025 AGM
Oct 16, 2025

Cogstate Ltd announced that all resolutions were passed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting, including the re-election of directors and the renewal of the Employee Equity Plan. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and may positively impact the company’s strategic initiatives and governance, reinforcing its position in the neuroscience technology industry.

Cogstate Ltd Achieves Record Financial Performance in FY25
Oct 15, 2025

Cogstate Ltd reported a record-breaking fiscal year 2025, with revenue reaching $53.1 million, a 22% increase, and a net profit before tax of $13.9 million, reflecting nearly 100% growth. The company’s core business in clinical trials generated $50.6 million in revenue, marking a 28% increase, and new contract sales surged by 53% to $41.3 million. The company’s operational rigor and market leadership contributed to a significant expansion in earnings leverage, with EBITDA and EBIT margins rising to 30% and 25%, respectively. These results underscore Cogstate’s strategic progress and growing momentum, positioning the company strongly for the future.

Cogstate Reports Record Growth and Expands Market Reach
Oct 15, 2025

Cogstate Ltd has reported a significant increase in demand for its services, driven by growth in the R&D market for central nervous system diseases and an expansion of its customer base. The company achieved its second-highest quarterly sales contracts in history, with a notable diversification in the indications for these contracts. Despite the increase in operational costs due to growth initiatives, Cogstate expects revenue for the first half of 2026 to improve by 18-20% compared to the previous year. The company is investing in additional resources and technology to support its expansion, although this may slightly impact margins.

Cogstate Ltd Expands Market Presence with New Securities Quotation
Sep 14, 2025

Cogstate Ltd, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code CGS, has announced the quotation of additional securities. The company has issued a total of 1,147,957 ordinary fully paid shares across several dates in August and September 2025. This move is part of their strategy to enhance liquidity and potentially attract more investors, which could impact their market positioning positively.

Cogstate Announces Director’s Shareholding Changes
Sep 11, 2025

Cogstate Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Martyn Myer. The notice reveals that 2,500,000 ordinary shares were transferred from Myer and Myer Pty Ltd ATF Whereabouts Superannuation Fund to Trilane Industries Limited, both indirectly associated with Martyn Myer. This change reflects a reallocation of shares within entities linked to the director, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder structure and signaling strategic financial adjustments.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025