Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AU:AVA)
ASX:AVA
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Ava Risk Group Ltd.
(Sydney:AVA)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.05
▼(-38.75% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and negative shareholder returns (negative margins and ROE), alongside bearish technical trends (below major moving averages and negative MACD). These are partially offset by improving cash flow generation and a conservative balance sheet with low leverage.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Ava's large free cash flow improvement (+145.81%) and strong free-cash-to-income conversion (0.89) indicate the business is increasingly converting sales into spendable cash. That durable cash generation supports project funding, aftermarket investments and reduces reliance on external financing over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative net profitability
Despite healthy gross margins and cashflow gains, persistent net losses and a deeply negative ROE reflect the company's inability to cover operating and corporate costs. Over a multi-month horizon, sustained negative profitability erodes retained capital and limits capacity to fund growth without dilutive raises or cost reduction.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Ava's large free cash flow improvement (+145.81%) and strong free-cash-to-income conversion (0.89) indicate the business is increasingly converting sales into spendable cash. That durable cash generation supports project funding, aftermarket investments and reduces reliance on external financing over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$15.14M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)136.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth4.84%
EPS Growth-12.12%
CountryAU
Employees48
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding291,099,100
10 Day Avg. Volume173,202
30 Day Avg. Volume136,343
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.36
Price to Book (P/B)1.31
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio7.83
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$40.32M
Ava Risk Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ava Risk Group Limited provides risk management technologies worldwide. The company operates in Perimeter Security, and Access Control Solutions segments. It manufactures and sells fiber optic intrusion detection and location systems that are used...
How the Company Makes Money
AVA makes money primarily by selling security hardware and associated software, plus providing project delivery and ongoing support tied to those deployments. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: revenue from perimeter intrusion detecti...
Ava Risk Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 28.62M | 31.60M | 30.14M | 28.60M | 18.62M | 24.70M |
| Gross Profit | 11.02M | 20.28M | 18.00M | 5.65M | 3.95M | 10.43M |
| EBITDA | -1.25M | 906.00K | -2.52M | 1.42M | 1.36M | 8.57M |
| Net Income | -7.61M | -6.46M | -5.20M | -1.05M | 33.13M | 13.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.64M | 29.60M | 36.06M | 37.08M | 30.41M | 43.25M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.74M | 5.59M | 5.08M | 5.52M | 15.23M | 17.29M |
| Total Debt | 3.66M | 2.80M | 3.02M | 2.83M | 284.00K | 430.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 7.59M | 7.43M | 8.11M | 7.82M | 4.46M | 11.21M |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.05M | 22.17M | 27.95M | 29.25M | 25.95M | 32.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.35M | 3.70M | -3.26M | -4.60M | 1.09M | 16.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.77M | 4.17M | -535.00K | -2.18M | 2.48M | 17.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.24M | -2.96M | -2.73M | -7.94M | 35.07M | -1.08M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -834.00K | -719.00K | 2.92M | -1.34M | -39.73M | -6.70M |
Ava Risk Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.08
Price Trends
0.06
Negative
0.06
Negative
0.07
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
42.92
Neutral
96.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, above the 50-day MA of 0.06, and above the 200-day MA of 0.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVA.
Ava Risk Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
47 Neutral | AU$15.14M | -4.31 | -36.07% | ― | 4.84% | -12.12% | |
44 Neutral | AU$990.50K | -1.84 | 17.10% | ― | ― | 51.22% | |
43 Neutral | AU$14.44M | -1.67 | 75.79% | ― | -25.22% | -3400.00% | |
40 Underperform | AU$8.94M | -69.01 | -19.88% | ― | 11.15% | 26.53% | |
| ― | AU$1.63M | -2.77 | 58.28% | ― | -12.49% | 51.70% | |
42 Neutral | AU$7.05M | -14.21 | -71.80% | ― | 6.37% | 76.58% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:AVA
Ava Risk Group Ltd.
0.06
-0.04
-42.11%
AU:DTI
DTI Group Ltd
0.01
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TZ Limited
0.04
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-31.15%
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Scout Security Ltd.
0.52
0.00
0.00%
AU:MSG
MCS Services Limited
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:SP3
Spectur Ltd.
0.02
<0.01
30.77%
Ava Risk Group Ltd. Corporate Events
Ava Risk Group Wins Key Government Security Trials as Global Order Pipeline Builds
Mar 25, 2026
Ava Risk Group is deepening its presence in Asia Pacific, securing a lead role in Melbourne Airport’s major perimeter intrusion detection trial and winning recognition from Australia’s Department of Home Affairs for its fibre optic sen...
Ava Risk Group Files Half-Year 2025 Financial Report With ASX
Feb 25, 2026
Ava Risk Group Ltd. has lodged its Appendix 4D and consolidated financial report for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 with the ASX. The filing includes the directors’ report, auditor’s independence declaration, reviewed financial s...
Ava Risk Group Secures Up to A$7m in Convertible Note Funding from Hale Capital
Jan 30, 2026
Ava Risk Group has executed a secured convertible note funding agreement and warrant deed with US-based Hale Capital Management and affiliates, giving the company access to up to A$7 million in convertible note funding and a further A$5.6 million ...
Ava Risk Group Issues Unquoted Convertible Notes to Strengthen Capital Structure
Jan 30, 2026
Ava Risk Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of 2,979,184 unquoted convertible notes, each convertible at $0.1234 and maturing on 30 January 2030. The securities, which form part of a previously disclosed transaction and are not int...
Ava Risk Group Issues 19.3 Million Unquoted Warrants Under Prior Transaction
Jan 30, 2026
Ava Risk Group Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 19,314,000 unquoted warrants, effective 30 January 2026. The warrants form part of a previously announced transaction and are not intended to be listed on the ASX, signalling an internal c...
Ava Risk Group Flags Weaker First Half but Backs Strong H2 on Delayed Orders and Hale Capital Funding
Jan 30, 2026
Ava Risk Group reported softer-than-guided first-half FY2026 performance, with expected H1 revenue of about $14 million versus prior guidance of $17–18.2 million, after several key orders across corrections, government, transport, energy and...
Ava Risk Group Announces Lapse of 500,000 Performance Share Rights
Jan 9, 2026
Ava Risk Group Ltd. has reported the lapse of 500,000 performance share rights, designated as AVAAB, after the specified vesting or performance conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these securities, effe...
Ava Risk Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 333,334 New Shares
Jan 9, 2026
Ava Risk Group Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 333,334 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The additional securities, issued on 9 January 2026, w...
Ava Risk Group Plans Major Capital Raise via Convertible Notes and Warrants
Jan 5, 2026
Ava Risk Group Limited has announced a proposed issue of new securities comprising up to 4,020,000 convertible notes and 26,066,875 warrants, both with a conversion or exercise price of A$0.1234. The instruments, which include convertible notes wi...
Ava Risk Group Plans Convertible Note and Warrant Issue to Bolster Funding
Jan 5, 2026
Ava Risk Group Ltd has announced a proposed capital raising via the issue of up to 2.98 million convertible notes and 19.31 million warrants through a placement or similar structure. The convertible notes, which can be converted at A$0.1234 per sh...
Ava Risk Group Secures Premium-Priced Hale Capital Funding to Drive U.S. Expansion
Dec 31, 2025
Ava Risk Group has secured a strategic investment package of up to A$12.6 million from U.S.-based Hale Capital, comprising a A$7 million secured convertible note facility and up to A$5.6 million from five-year unlisted warrants, all priced at a si...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.