Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$29.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 264.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.11
• Revenue Growth: 13.25%
• EPS Growth: 13.71%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 48
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 290,472,020
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 410,282
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 264,016
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.22
• Price Target Upside: 120.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.00 ▼(-100.00%Downside)

Ava Risk Group Ltd. faces significant financial performance challenges, including recent net losses and negative profit margins. The weak technical indicators and negative P/E ratio further weigh on the stock, although a strong balance sheet provides some stability. Strategic improvements in operational efficiency and cash flow are critical for enhancing the stock's performance.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ava Risk Group Limited provides risk management technologies worldwide. The company operates in Perimeter Security, and Access Control Solutions segments. It manufactures and sells fiber optic intrusion detection and location systems that are used to detect and locate perimeter intrusion, data network tapping and tampering, and oil and gas pipeline third party interference detection, as well as other applications, including health, safety, and traffic monitoring. The company also provides smart card readers and card systems, biometric solutions, and electric locking and access control products. It serves commercial and industrial customers, military, and governments. The company was formerly known as Future Fibre Technologies Limited and changed its name to Ava Risk Group Limited in May 2018. Ava Risk Group Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Mulgrave, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Ava Risk Group Ltd. generates revenue through the sale and servicing of its security and risk management solutions. Key revenue streams include product sales of its high-tech security systems, recurring income from service and maintenance contracts, and fees from secure logistics and monitoring services. The company also capitalizes on strategic partnerships and collaborations with governments and large corporations, which enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings. Additionally, Ava Risk Group may earn revenue from licensing its technologies and from consulting services provided to clients seeking tailored risk management solutions.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ava Risk Group Ltd. is experiencing financial pressures with recent losses impacting profitability metrics. The income statement shows volatility in revenue with persistent net losses, and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet, however, reflects a strong equity position and low leverage, but cash flow issues with negative free cash flow pose sustainability risks.

Income Statement

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has witnessed volatility in its revenue with recent growth driven by a significant rise in revenue from 2022 to 2023. However, the financials show a concerning trend as the company posted a net loss for consecutive years between 2023 and 2024. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. A declining gross profit margin further adds pressure to improving the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a healthy equity ratio and low leverage, as evidenced by a moderate debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company's return on equity has suffered due to recent net losses. On a positive note, the company holds a solid cash position, which provides a cushion against financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative free cash flow and operating cash flow in recent years. Despite a positive financing cash flow indicating successful capital raising, the core operations are struggling to generate cash, resulting in a poor operating cash flow to net income ratio. The significant decline in free cash flow growth highlights the need for improved cash management practices.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	33.02M	30.14M	28.60M	18.62M	24.70M	46.13M
Gross Profit	20.39M	18.00M	5.65M	3.95M	10.43M	9.16M
EBITDA	1.45M	-2.52M	1.42M	1.36M	8.57M	7.44M
Net Income	-2.89M	-5.20M	-1.05M	1.22M	13.75M	4.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	37.96M	36.06M	37.08M	30.41M	43.25M	33.68M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.67M	5.08M	5.52M	15.23M	17.29M	7.70M
Total Debt	3.36M	3.02M	2.83M	284.00K	430.00K	713.00K
Total Liabilities	9.19M	8.11M	7.82M	4.46M	11.21M	8.27M
Stockholders Equity	28.77M	27.95M	29.25M	25.95M	32.04M	25.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.50M	-3.26M	-4.60M	1.09M	16.50M	4.88M
Operating Cash Flow	1.91M	-535.00K	-2.18M	2.48M	17.58M	5.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.65M	-2.73M	-7.94M	35.07M	-1.08M	-1.08M
Financing Cash Flow	3.51M	2.92M	-1.34M	-39.73M	-6.70M	-178.00K

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.10, above the 50-day MA of 0.10, and below the 200-day MA of 0.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AVA.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	66 Neutral	€4.10B	9.28	18.29%	3.38%	3.84%	-103.41%
BVS	65 Neutral	AU$1.00B	14.01	57.04%	2.86%	18.63%	―
AR9	54 Neutral	AU$66.23M	―	-45.31%	―	-28.80%	32.87%
AVA	45 Neutral	AU$29.05M	―	-10.45%	―	13.25%	13.71%
SEN	44 Neutral	AU$28.15M	―	-31.58%	―	22.29%	64.62%

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Ava Risk Group Director Consolidates Shareholding

Ava Risk Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Mark Stevens transferring 902,785 fully paid ordinary shares from his indirect holding to his direct holding. This off-market transfer consolidates Stevens’ holdings, increasing his direct ownership to 1,721,181 fully paid ordinary shares, while his indirect holdings through Teenj Pty Ltd ATF Stevens Super Fund are now nil.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Secures A$1.1 Million Contract with Honeywell for ADNOC Project

Ava Risk Group has secured a contract valued at A$1.1 million with Honeywell Middle East Company Ltd-AD to supply its Aura Ai-X Distributed Acoustic Sensing technology to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). This contract, which will be delivered in the current quarter, strengthens Ava’s long-standing relationship with Honeywell and underscores its position as a preferred technology provider for critical infrastructure protection in the oil and gas sector. The deployment of this technology will help monitor and identify risks to critical infrastructure across a major oil and gas field operated by ADNOC, further demonstrating trust in Ava’s reliable solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Secures Contract with GAIL for Indian Gas Pipeline

Ava Risk Group has secured a contract with GAIL (India) Limited to deploy its fibre sensing technology along a critical gas pipeline in India, valued at A$0.9 million. This deployment will enhance the security of the Kochi–Koottanad–Bangalore–Mangalore pipeline, a vital infrastructure project connecting South India to the national gas grid. The contract underscores Ava’s competitive advantage in rapid deployment and strengthens its position as a trusted provider of critical infrastructure protection in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Reports Q3 FY2025 Trading Update with Strategic Milestones

Ava Risk Group Ltd. reported a Q3 FY2025 sales order intake of $6.5 million, with a year-to-date total of $22.8 million. Despite a slight dip due to geopolitical instability, the company remains optimistic about Q4, supported by a strong sales pipeline and significant orders expected in the transportation and telecommunications sectors. The company has secured a $0.3 million order from Telstra for its Aura Ai-X system to protect a subsea cable, marking a strategic milestone in expanding its market presence and enhancing its commercial capabilities.