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Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AU:AVA)
ASX:AVA
Australian Market
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Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:AVA

Ava Risk Group Ltd.

(Sydney:AVA)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.07
▼(-4.29% Downside)
Ava Risk Group Ltd.'s overall score is primarily impacted by its strong cash flow management and low leverage, but is offset by poor profitability and a negative P/E ratio. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, further weighing on the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Management
Strong cash flow management enhances financial flexibility, allowing the company to reinvest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.
Low Leverage
Low leverage reduces financial risk and interest obligations, providing a stable foundation for long-term growth and resilience against economic downturns.
Gross Profit Margin
An improved gross profit margin reflects effective cost control, which can lead to better profitability as revenue scales, supporting sustainable business operations.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Persistent profitability issues can hinder reinvestment in the business, affecting long-term growth potential and shareholder value.
Negative Return on Equity
Negative return on equity suggests poor capital efficiency, which can deter investment and limit the company's ability to enhance shareholder wealth.
Declining Revenue Growth
Declining revenue growth can signal weakening market position or product demand, challenging the company's ability to expand and compete effectively.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAva Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) is an Australian-based technology company specializing in the development of risk management and decision-making solutions. The company primarily serves sectors such as financial services, insurance, and energy, providing advanced analytics and risk assessment tools that leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning. Core products include platforms for managing operational risk and compliance, as well as consulting services that help organizations mitigate risks and enhance decision-making processes.
How the Company Makes MoneyAva Risk Group generates revenue through multiple streams, including the sale of software licenses, subscription-based models for its analytics platforms, and consulting services tailored to clients in high-risk industries. The company also earns money through partnerships with other firms, allowing it to integrate its solutions into broader risk management ecosystems. Additionally, Ava may receive revenue from maintenance and support services for its software products, further contributing to its financial performance.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ava Risk Group Ltd. demonstrates strengths in cash flow management and maintaining a low leverage profile. However, challenges in profitability and return on equity could impact long-term growth. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability is essential for future stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ava Risk Group Ltd. has experienced fluctuating revenue growth, with a recent decline of 4.28%. The gross profit margin has improved to 64.18%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -20.43% and negative EBIT margin. The EBITDA margin is slightly positive at 2.87%, showing some operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, suggesting conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -29.12%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at a healthy level, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Ava Risk Group Ltd. has shown significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 145.81%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.66, suggesting moderate cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89, highlighting effective conversion of earnings into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue31.60M31.60M30.14M28.60M18.62M24.70M
Gross Profit20.28M20.28M18.00M5.65M3.95M10.43M
EBITDA906.00K906.00K-2.52M1.42M1.36M8.57M
Net Income-6.46M-6.46M-5.20M-1.05M33.13M13.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.60M29.60M36.06M37.08M30.41M43.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.59M5.59M5.08M5.52M15.23M17.29M
Total Debt2.80M2.80M3.02M2.83M284.00K430.00K
Total Liabilities7.43M7.43M8.11M7.82M4.46M11.21M
Stockholders Equity22.17M22.17M27.95M29.25M25.95M32.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.70M3.70M-3.26M-4.60M1.09M16.50M
Operating Cash Flow4.17M4.17M-535.00K-2.18M2.48M17.58M
Investing Cash Flow-2.96M-2.96M-2.73M-7.94M35.07M-1.08M
Financing Cash Flow-719.00K-719.00K2.92M-1.34M-39.73M-6.70M

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.07
Price Trends
50DMA
0.07
Negative
100DMA
0.08
Negative
200DMA
0.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
53.45
Neutral
STOCH
80.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, below the 50-day MA of 0.07, and below the 200-day MA of 0.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:AVA.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
48
Neutral
AU$20.94M-3.24-25.77%4.84%-12.12%
45
Neutral
AU$9.83M-39.15%11.15%26.53%
44
Neutral
AU$10.63M-10.38-850.83%6.37%76.58%
41
Neutral
AU$12.44M-3.33-25.22%-3400.00%
39
Underperform
AU$1.58M-5.50-61.10%51.22%
36
Underperform
AU$1.63M-0.72-12.49%51.70%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AVA
Ava Risk Group Ltd.
0.07
-0.06
-46.15%
AU:DTI
DTI Group Ltd
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:TZL
TZ Limited
0.04
-0.03
-42.86%
AU:SCT
Scout Security Ltd.
0.52
0.00
0.00%
AU:MSG
MCS Services Limited
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:SP3
Spectur Ltd.
0.03
<0.01
50.00%

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Ava Risk Group Announces CEO Transition Amidst Strong Growth
Nov 19, 2025

Ava Risk Group announced the retirement of CEO Mal Maginnis, effective January 22, 2026, with Neville Joyce stepping in as Acting CEO. Under Maginnis’s leadership, Ava underwent significant strategic and operational changes, including the release of the Aura Ai-X platform and achieving major account wins. The company experienced strong revenue growth and improved its financial position, leaving it well-positioned for future growth. The Board has initiated a global search for a new CEO to continue this momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Reports Successful AGM Outcomes
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, where all proposed resolutions were carried. Key resolutions included the adoption of the Remuneration Report, re-election of Director Mark Stevens, approval of a 10% placement facility, and an amendment to the company’s constitution. These outcomes are likely to strengthen the company’s governance and operational flexibility, potentially impacting its strategic initiatives and stakeholder relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Reports FY2025 Progress and Sets Growth Priorities for FY2026
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group reported significant progress in FY2025, with a focus on technology-driven growth, particularly in its Detect segment. The company expanded its Aura Ai-X fibre optic sensing solution into the telecommunications sector, achieving a successful deployment on a Telstra subsea cable. Despite a strong revenue growth of 20% in the first half, total revenue increased by 5% year-on-year due to deferred orders. EBITDA improved significantly, reflecting strong gross margins and a stable cost base. The company recognized an impairment charge in the Illuminate segment but remains optimistic about its potential. With a sales order backlog of $6.4 million, Ava Risk Group aims to accelerate revenue growth in FY2026 by increasing sales order intake, growing recurring revenues, and maintaining gross margins.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group’s AGM Faces Disruption Due to Microsoft Azure Outage
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group Limited announced that the virtual component of its hybrid Annual General Meeting may face disruptions due to a global outage affecting Microsoft’s Azure platform. Despite the outage, the meeting will proceed at the physical venue in Melbourne as scheduled. The company is working with the Lumi team to restore the online AGM platform, with an estimated availability by 10:30 am AEDT, although further delays are possible. This incident highlights the challenges and dependencies associated with digital platforms for corporate events, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Reports Strong Q1 FY2026 Performance with Promising Outlook
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. reported a strong Q1 FY2026 with a sales order intake of $9.0 million and a backlog of $7.5 million, driven by significant contracts in sectors like transportation and border protection. The company anticipates further growth in Q2, leveraging successful projects like the Sydney Metro and expanding its presence in the aviation and telecommunications sectors, despite some delays due to geopolitical factors and government shutdowns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Secures $0.9 Million in Contracts for Aura Ai-X Technology
Oct 1, 2025

Ava Risk Group has secured two contracts totaling $0.9 million for its Aura Ai-X fibre sensing technology in the border protection and transport infrastructure sectors. The contracts include a $0.5 million deal for border protection in Latvia and a $0.4 million contract variation with Siemens for an Australian transport infrastructure project. These contracts highlight the growing demand for Ava’s technology in border security and transport infrastructure, demonstrating the versatility and superior performance of the Aura Ai-X systems. The company’s focus remains on protecting critical infrastructure assets in energy, telecommunications, and transport, while also exploring opportunities in perimeter detection markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Announces Key Resolutions for Upcoming AGM
Sep 24, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has announced its upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for October 30, 2025, in Melbourne. The meeting will address key resolutions, including the adoption of the Remuneration Report, the re-election of Director Mark Stevens, approval of a 10% Placement Facility, and an amendment to the company’s constitution. These resolutions are set to influence the company’s governance and operational capacity, potentially impacting shareholder value and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Sep 4, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has announced the quotation of 293,722 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of September 4, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial flexibility and potentially improve its market positioning by increasing the liquidity of its shares, which may have positive implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Announces Cessation of Securities
Sep 4, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. announced the cessation of 29,714 performance share rights due to unmet conditions, effective August 31, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s performance metrics and strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Achieves Revenue Growth and Strategic Expansion in FY2025
Aug 27, 2025

Ava Risk Group reported a 5% increase in revenue for FY2025, reaching $31.7 million, with a significant improvement in EBITDA to $2.1 million. The company achieved strategic progress by expanding into new markets and projects, notably with the deployment of its Aura Ai-X technology on a Telstra subsea cable, opening new opportunities in the telecommunications sector. Despite challenges in the Access segment, Ava Risk Group remains focused on growth through strategic partnerships and technological advancements, positioning itself for improved performance in FY2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 27, 2025

Ava Risk Group Limited has released its corporate governance statement for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, which is available on their website. The statement outlines the company’s adherence to the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s principles and recommendations, ensuring transparency and accountability in its operations. This disclosure is crucial for maintaining investor trust and aligning with industry standards, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Releases 2025 Financial Report
Aug 27, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has released its financial report for the year ending June 30, 2025. The report highlights the company’s continued focus on strengthening its market position through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies. This announcement underscores Ava Risk Group’s commitment to maintaining its competitive edge in the security industry, which could have positive implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Reports Mixed Financial Results for FY2025
Aug 27, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. reported a 5% increase in consolidated revenue for the year ended June 30, 2025, compared to the previous year. However, the company experienced a 24% increase in loss after tax and a 34% decline in EBITDA, indicating challenges in profitability. No dividends were proposed for the current reporting period, contrasting with a special dividend paid in the prior year. These financial results suggest a mixed performance, with revenue growth but increased losses, impacting the company’s financial health and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Announces AGM Date and Director Nomination Process
Aug 25, 2025

Ava Risk Group Limited has announced that its Annual General Meeting will be held on October 30, 2025. The company has outlined the process for director nominations, which must be submitted by September 10, 2025. This announcement is part of the company’s governance process and provides stakeholders with information on upcoming leadership elections, which could influence the company’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 25, 2025