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Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AU:AVA)
ASX:AVA
Australian Market

Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:AVA

Ava Risk Group Ltd.

(Sydney:AVA)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.07
▼(-8.75% Downside)
The score is primarily held back by weak profitability and negative ROE despite improved cash flow and low leverage. Technicals are supportive with the price above major moving averages, but overbought momentum signals add near-term risk. Valuation is pressured by losses reflected in the negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow conversion
Sustained improvement in free cash flow and high conversion rates indicate the business can self-fund operations, R&D and customer success without heavy external financing. This supports durable investment in product development and resilience through downturns, improving long-term viability.
Conservative leverage
Low leverage provides financial flexibility to weather shocks, pursue strategic hires or M&A, and avoid liquidity stress. With limited debt obligations, management can prioritize growth investments and risk management tools central to the firm's SaaS/consulting model over servicing debt.
High gross margin and positive EBITDA
A high gross margin implies scalable, high-value software and services with room to absorb sales and marketing spend as revenue scales. Even modest positive EBITDA shows operating leverage potential; if revenue stabilizes, margins can expand sustainably with incremental revenue.
Negative Factors
Negative net profitability
Persistent net losses and negative EBIT reduce retained earnings and limit internally available capital for growth. Over months, this can force reliance on external financing, constrain strategic initiatives, and pressure the firm's ability to scale its analytics platform profitably.
Materially negative return on equity
A strongly negative ROE signals management is not currently generating acceptable returns on shareholder capital, undermining long-term investor confidence and suggesting operational or margin issues that must be resolved before the company can sustainably deliver shareholder value.
Revenue instability and recent decline
Variable top-line performance and recent revenue contraction hinder predictable operating leverage and planning. For a software and services provider, uneven revenue complicates retention, hiring, and R&D pacing, making margin expansion and scale economics harder to achieve over the medium term.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAva Risk Group Limited provides risk management technologies worldwide. The company operates in Perimeter Security, and Access Control Solutions segments. It manufactures and sells fiber optic intrusion detection and location systems that are used to detect and locate perimeter intrusion, data network tapping and tampering, and oil and gas pipeline third party interference detection, as well as other applications, including health, safety, and traffic monitoring. The company also provides smart card readers and card systems, biometric solutions, and electric locking and access control products. It serves commercial and industrial customers, military, and governments. The company was formerly known as Future Fibre Technologies Limited and changed its name to Ava Risk Group Limited in May 2018. Ava Risk Group Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Mulgrave, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAva Risk Group generates revenue through multiple streams, including the sale of software licenses, subscription-based models for its analytics platforms, and consulting services tailored to clients in high-risk industries. The company also earns money through partnerships with other firms, allowing it to integrate its solutions into broader risk management ecosystems. Additionally, Ava may receive revenue from maintenance and support services for its software products, further contributing to its financial performance.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ava Risk Group Ltd. demonstrates strengths in cash flow management and maintaining a low leverage profile. However, challenges in profitability and return on equity could impact long-term growth. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability is essential for future stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ava Risk Group Ltd. has experienced fluctuating revenue growth, with a recent decline of 4.28%. The gross profit margin has improved to 64.18%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -20.43% and negative EBIT margin. The EBITDA margin is slightly positive at 2.87%, showing some operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, suggesting conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -29.12%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at a healthy level, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Ava Risk Group Ltd. has shown significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 145.81%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.66, suggesting moderate cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89, highlighting effective conversion of earnings into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue31.60M31.60M30.14M28.60M18.62M24.70M
Gross Profit20.28M20.28M18.00M5.65M3.95M10.43M
EBITDA906.00K906.00K-2.52M1.42M1.36M8.57M
Net Income-6.46M-6.46M-5.20M-1.05M33.13M13.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.60M29.60M36.06M37.08M30.41M43.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.59M5.59M5.08M5.52M15.23M17.29M
Total Debt2.80M2.80M3.02M2.83M284.00K430.00K
Total Liabilities7.43M7.43M8.11M7.82M4.46M11.21M
Stockholders Equity22.17M22.17M27.95M29.25M25.95M32.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.70M3.70M-3.26M-4.60M1.09M16.50M
Operating Cash Flow4.17M4.17M-535.00K-2.18M2.48M17.58M
Investing Cash Flow-2.96M-2.96M-2.73M-7.94M35.07M-1.08M
Financing Cash Flow-719.00K-719.00K2.92M-1.34M-39.73M-6.70M

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.08
Price Trends
50DMA
0.07
Positive
100DMA
0.07
Negative
200DMA
0.08
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
45.09
Neutral
STOCH
20.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.07, above the 50-day MA of 0.07, and below the 200-day MA of 0.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVA.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
53
Neutral
AU$20.96M-3.20-25.77%4.84%-12.12%
45
Neutral
AU$12.14M-11.92-850.83%6.37%76.58%
45
Neutral
AU$10.73M-2.78-39.15%11.15%26.53%
45
Neutral
AU$1.39M-5.50-61.10%51.22%
41
Neutral
AU$12.80M-3.33-25.22%-3400.00%
36
Underperform
AU$1.63M-0.72-12.49%51.70%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AVA
Ava Risk Group Ltd.
0.07
-0.05
-40.83%
AU:DTI
DTI Group Ltd
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:TZL
TZ Limited
0.04
<0.01
10.00%
AU:SCT
Scout Security Ltd.
0.52
0.00
0.00%
AU:MSG
MCS Services Limited
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:SP3
Spectur Ltd.
0.03
0.02
121.43%

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Ava Risk Group Announces Lapse of 500,000 Performance Share Rights
Jan 9, 2026

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has reported the lapse of 500,000 performance share rights, designated as AVAAB, after the specified vesting or performance conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these securities, effective 9 January 2026, results in no new shares being issued under this tranche of performance rights, indicating a reduction in potential equity dilution for existing shareholders and a reset of management or employee equity incentives tied to these instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 333,334 New Shares
Jan 9, 2026

Ava Risk Group Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 333,334 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The additional securities, issued on 9 January 2026, will modestly increase the company’s quoted share capital and may reflect ongoing utilisation of equity-based instruments in its capital management and employee or investor incentive structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Plans Major Capital Raise via Convertible Notes and Warrants
Jan 5, 2026

Ava Risk Group Limited has announced a proposed issue of new securities comprising up to 4,020,000 convertible notes and 26,066,875 warrants, both with a conversion or exercise price of A$0.1234. The instruments, which include convertible notes with a 48-month maturity period (plus an additional 12-month option) and warrants expiring five years after issue, are to be issued via a placement or similar structure with a proposed issue date of 31 March 2026, signalling a significant capital-raising effort that could lead to future equity dilution but provides additional funding flexibility for the company’s strategic and operational needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Plans Convertible Note and Warrant Issue to Bolster Funding
Jan 5, 2026

Ava Risk Group Ltd has announced a proposed capital raising via the issue of up to 2.98 million convertible notes and 19.31 million warrants through a placement or similar structure. The convertible notes, which can be converted at A$0.1234 per share with a maturity of up to 60 months, and the warrants, exercisable at the same price and expiring five years after issue, are expected to provide additional funding flexibility and potential future equity for the company when issued, with a proposed issue date of 2 February 2026, signalling an effort to strengthen its balance sheet and support ongoing strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Secures Premium-Priced Hale Capital Funding to Drive U.S. Expansion
Dec 31, 2025

Ava Risk Group has secured a strategic investment package of up to A$12.6 million from U.S.-based Hale Capital, comprising a A$7 million secured convertible note facility and up to A$5.6 million from five-year unlisted warrants, all priced at a significant premium to the company’s last closing share price. The funding, alongside Hale’s planned nomination of an industry executive to Ava’s board, will be used to accelerate the company’s U.S. expansion by scaling its commercial and operational capabilities, speeding deployment of its security technologies across U.S. critical infrastructure markets, and positioning Ava for strategic partnerships and potential bolt-on acquisitions, thereby strengthening its competitive foothold in its largest addressable market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Director Increases Shareholding
Dec 2, 2025

Ava Risk Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Mark Stevens acquiring an additional 100,599 fully paid ordinary shares through on-market purchases. This change, which took place between November 28 and December 1, 2025, increases Stevens’ total holdings to 1,821,780 shares, reflecting a strategic investment move that may influence the company’s market perception and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group’s BQT Solutions Secures Strategic Partnership with UniKey Technologies
Dec 1, 2025

Ava Risk Group’s BQT Solutions division has signed a five-year agreement with UniKey Technologies to co-develop a new range of NFC/BLE access control readers. This partnership is expected to generate $4.6 million in revenue for BQT and positions the company as a key hardware partner in the rapidly growing mobile-first access control market. The agreement provides BQT with exclusive supply rights in North America and global distribution rights, enhancing its market reach and ensuring predictable revenue streams.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Announces CEO Transition Amidst Strong Growth
Nov 19, 2025

Ava Risk Group announced the retirement of CEO Mal Maginnis, effective January 22, 2026, with Neville Joyce stepping in as Acting CEO. Under Maginnis’s leadership, Ava underwent significant strategic and operational changes, including the release of the Aura Ai-X platform and achieving major account wins. The company experienced strong revenue growth and improved its financial position, leaving it well-positioned for future growth. The Board has initiated a global search for a new CEO to continue this momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Reports Successful AGM Outcomes
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, where all proposed resolutions were carried. Key resolutions included the adoption of the Remuneration Report, re-election of Director Mark Stevens, approval of a 10% placement facility, and an amendment to the company’s constitution. These outcomes are likely to strengthen the company’s governance and operational flexibility, potentially impacting its strategic initiatives and stakeholder relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Reports FY2025 Progress and Sets Growth Priorities for FY2026
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group reported significant progress in FY2025, with a focus on technology-driven growth, particularly in its Detect segment. The company expanded its Aura Ai-X fibre optic sensing solution into the telecommunications sector, achieving a successful deployment on a Telstra subsea cable. Despite a strong revenue growth of 20% in the first half, total revenue increased by 5% year-on-year due to deferred orders. EBITDA improved significantly, reflecting strong gross margins and a stable cost base. The company recognized an impairment charge in the Illuminate segment but remains optimistic about its potential. With a sales order backlog of $6.4 million, Ava Risk Group aims to accelerate revenue growth in FY2026 by increasing sales order intake, growing recurring revenues, and maintaining gross margins.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group’s AGM Faces Disruption Due to Microsoft Azure Outage
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group Limited announced that the virtual component of its hybrid Annual General Meeting may face disruptions due to a global outage affecting Microsoft’s Azure platform. Despite the outage, the meeting will proceed at the physical venue in Melbourne as scheduled. The company is working with the Lumi team to restore the online AGM platform, with an estimated availability by 10:30 am AEDT, although further delays are possible. This incident highlights the challenges and dependencies associated with digital platforms for corporate events, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Reports Strong Q1 FY2026 Performance with Promising Outlook
Oct 30, 2025

Ava Risk Group Ltd. reported a strong Q1 FY2026 with a sales order intake of $9.0 million and a backlog of $7.5 million, driven by significant contracts in sectors like transportation and border protection. The company anticipates further growth in Q2, leveraging successful projects like the Sydney Metro and expanding its presence in the aviation and telecommunications sectors, despite some delays due to geopolitical factors and government shutdowns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 06, 2026