Ava Risk Group Ltd. (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$18.34M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 136.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 4.84%
• EPS Growth: -12.12%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 48
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 291,099,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 173,202
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 136,343
• PEG Ratio: -0.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.92
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.06 ▼(-21.25% Downside)

The score is primarily held back by weak profitability and negative returns (net margin and ROE) and bearish technicals with the stock trading below major moving averages and a negative MACD. These are partially offset by improved cash flow metrics and low leverage, which provide some financial stability.

Positive Factors

Cash flow improvement

A 145.81% rise in free cash flow, with operating cash flow to net income ~0.66 and free cash flow conversion ~0.89, indicates the business is generating durable cash. Strong cash generation supports funding installations, aftermarket service growth and reduces reliance on external capital.

Conservative leverage

Very low debt-to-equity (0.13) and a strong equity base provide financial flexibility to pursue multi-year contracts and invest in product development. Low leverage reduces interest burden and supports resilience through project timing variability common in security deployments.

High gross margins & product mix

A 64% gross margin suggests the company sells differentiated, high-value hardware and services (fiber-optic perimeter tech and high-security access). High product margins create room to invest in integration, support and aftermarket services that drive recurring revenue and long-term margin sustainability.

Negative Factors

Weak overall profitability

Material negative net margin and deeply negative ROE indicate the company is not currently converting revenue into shareholder returns. Persistent losses constrain retained earnings, limit reinvestment capacity and may force strategic adjustments to pricing, cost base or capital structure.

Revenue volatility / recent decline

Revenue growth has been uneven and recently declined ~4.3%, reflecting project-driven lumpiness. This makes forecasting and margin recovery harder, reduces operating leverage and can delay conversion of sales pipeline into stable, recurring aftermarket and service revenue streams.

Earnings deterioration

Negative EPS growth (≈-12%) shows per-share earnings are deteriorating. Over the medium term this limits internal funding capacity, raises the likelihood of equity raises or cost cutting, and signals structural challenges in turning high gross margins into sustainable bottom-line profitability.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ava Risk Group Limited provides risk management technologies worldwide. The company operates in Perimeter Security, and Access Control Solutions segments. It manufactures and sells fiber optic intrusion detection and location systems that are used to detect and locate perimeter intrusion, data network tapping and tampering, and oil and gas pipeline third party interference detection, as well as other applications, including health, safety, and traffic monitoring. The company also provides smart card readers and card systems, biometric solutions, and electric locking and access control products. It serves commercial and industrial customers, military, and governments. The company was formerly known as Future Fibre Technologies Limited and changed its name to Ava Risk Group Limited in May 2018. Ava Risk Group Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Mulgrave, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Ava Risk Group generates revenue through multiple streams, including the sale of software licenses, subscription-based models for its analytics platforms, and consulting services tailored to clients in high-risk industries. The company also earns money through partnerships with other firms, allowing it to integrate its solutions into broader risk management ecosystems. Additionally, Ava may receive revenue from maintenance and support services for its software products, further contributing to its financial performance.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a relative strength (free cash flow growth of 145.81% with decent conversion), and leverage is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.13). However, profitability is weak (net margin -20.43%, negative EBIT margin) and ROE is materially negative (-29.12%), limiting the score.

Income Statement

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has experienced fluctuating revenue growth, with a recent decline of 4.28%. The gross profit margin has improved to 64.18%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -20.43% and negative EBIT margin. The EBITDA margin is slightly positive at 2.87%, showing some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, suggesting conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -29.12%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at a healthy level, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has shown significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 145.81%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.66, suggesting moderate cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89, highlighting effective conversion of earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.60M	31.60M	30.14M	28.60M	18.62M	24.70M
Gross Profit	20.28M	20.28M	18.00M	5.65M	3.95M	10.43M
EBITDA	906.00K	906.00K	-2.52M	1.42M	1.36M	8.57M
Net Income	-6.46M	-6.46M	-5.20M	-1.05M	33.13M	13.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	29.60M	29.60M	36.06M	37.08M	30.41M	43.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.59M	5.59M	5.08M	5.52M	15.23M	17.29M
Total Debt	2.80M	2.80M	3.02M	2.83M	284.00K	430.00K
Total Liabilities	7.43M	7.43M	8.11M	7.82M	4.46M	11.21M
Stockholders Equity	22.17M	22.17M	27.95M	29.25M	25.95M	32.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.70M	3.70M	-3.26M	-4.60M	1.09M	16.50M
Operating Cash Flow	4.17M	4.17M	-535.00K	-2.18M	2.48M	17.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.96M	-2.96M	-2.73M	-7.94M	35.07M	-1.08M
Financing Cash Flow	-719.00K	-719.00K	2.92M	-1.34M	-39.73M	-6.70M

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.07, above the 50-day MA of 0.07, and below the 200-day MA of 0.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -25.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVA.

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AVA	50 Neutral	AU$18.34M	-2.88	-25.77%	―	4.84%	-12.12%
SP3	45 Neutral	AU$10.74M	-10.38	-850.83%	―	6.37%	76.58%
DTI	45 Neutral	AU$11.62M	-3.33	-39.15%	―	11.15%	26.53%
MSG	45 Neutral	AU$1.39M	-5.50	-61.10%	―	―	51.22%
TZL	43 Neutral	AU$13.10M	-3.33	―	―	-25.22%	-3400.00%
SCT	36 Underperform	AU$1.63M	-0.72	―	―	-12.49%	51.70%

Ava Risk Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Ava Risk Group Secures Up to A$7m in Convertible Note Funding from Hale Capital

Ava Risk Group has executed a secured convertible note funding agreement and warrant deed with US-based Hale Capital Management and affiliates, giving the company access to up to A$7 million in convertible note funding and a further A$5.6 million if associated warrants are exercised in cash. The company has drawn an initial A$2.98 million under Tranche 1, issuing 2,979,184 unlisted convertible notes at a face value of A$1 and a conversion price of A$0.1234 per share, alongside 19,314,000 unlisted warrants with the same exercise price and a five-year term, and may access a further A$4.02 million and additional warrants subject to shareholder approval. The transaction increases Ava’s cash reserves, creates a secured liability to Hale over the company and its material subsidiaries, and is intended to strengthen working capital and support future growth initiatives, including the expansion of sales, marketing and operational activities and a strategic push into US markets, while enabling any shares issued on conversion of Tranche 1 notes to be freely on-sold to retail investors without further disclosure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Issues Unquoted Convertible Notes to Strengthen Capital Structure

Ava Risk Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of 2,979,184 unquoted convertible notes, each convertible at $0.1234 and maturing on 30 January 2030. The securities, which form part of a previously disclosed transaction and are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, represent a funding and capital structure move that may provide additional financial flexibility while potentially diluting equity over time if converted, with implications for existing shareholders and the company’s long-term financing strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Issues 19.3 Million Unquoted Warrants Under Prior Transaction

Ava Risk Group Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 19,314,000 unquoted warrants, effective 30 January 2026. The warrants form part of a previously announced transaction and are not intended to be listed on the ASX, signalling an internal capital or incentive structure move rather than a public capital raising, with implications primarily for existing stakeholders and counterparties involved in that prior transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Flags Weaker First Half but Backs Strong H2 on Delayed Orders and Hale Capital Funding

Ava Risk Group reported softer-than-guided first-half FY2026 performance, with expected H1 revenue of about $14 million versus prior guidance of $17–18.2 million, after several key orders across corrections, government, transport, energy and border protection projects were delayed into the second half. Despite the shortfall, the company has a sales order backlog of $7.8 million, including $2.6 million of contracted recurring revenue, and has reaffirmed a significantly stronger H2 outlook with revenue guidance of $23–26 million, underpinned by the anticipated fulfilment of deferred orders and a pipeline of large program tenders in the Middle East, the U.S., Latin America and Australia. Ava also advanced a strategic funding deal with Hale Capital, securing up to $7 million via convertible notes and up to $5.6 million in warrants to provide growth capital for its U.S. expansion, positioning the group to capitalise on what it describes as its largest and most attractive addressable market, while investors await detailed half-year results due in late February.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Announces Lapse of 500,000 Performance Share Rights

Ava Risk Group Ltd. has reported the lapse of 500,000 performance share rights, designated as AVAAB, after the specified vesting or performance conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these securities, effective 9 January 2026, results in no new shares being issued under this tranche of performance rights, indicating a reduction in potential equity dilution for existing shareholders and a reset of management or employee equity incentives tied to these instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 333,334 New Shares

Ava Risk Group Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 333,334 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The additional securities, issued on 9 January 2026, will modestly increase the company’s quoted share capital and may reflect ongoing utilisation of equity-based instruments in its capital management and employee or investor incentive structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Plans Major Capital Raise via Convertible Notes and Warrants

Ava Risk Group Limited has announced a proposed issue of new securities comprising up to 4,020,000 convertible notes and 26,066,875 warrants, both with a conversion or exercise price of A$0.1234. The instruments, which include convertible notes with a 48-month maturity period (plus an additional 12-month option) and warrants expiring five years after issue, are to be issued via a placement or similar structure with a proposed issue date of 31 March 2026, signalling a significant capital-raising effort that could lead to future equity dilution but provides additional funding flexibility for the company’s strategic and operational needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Plans Convertible Note and Warrant Issue to Bolster Funding

Ava Risk Group Ltd has announced a proposed capital raising via the issue of up to 2.98 million convertible notes and 19.31 million warrants through a placement or similar structure. The convertible notes, which can be converted at A$0.1234 per share with a maturity of up to 60 months, and the warrants, exercisable at the same price and expiring five years after issue, are expected to provide additional funding flexibility and potential future equity for the company when issued, with a proposed issue date of 2 February 2026, signalling an effort to strengthen its balance sheet and support ongoing strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Secures Premium-Priced Hale Capital Funding to Drive U.S. Expansion

Ava Risk Group has secured a strategic investment package of up to A$12.6 million from U.S.-based Hale Capital, comprising a A$7 million secured convertible note facility and up to A$5.6 million from five-year unlisted warrants, all priced at a significant premium to the company’s last closing share price. The funding, alongside Hale’s planned nomination of an industry executive to Ava’s board, will be used to accelerate the company’s U.S. expansion by scaling its commercial and operational capabilities, speeding deployment of its security technologies across U.S. critical infrastructure markets, and positioning Ava for strategic partnerships and potential bolt-on acquisitions, thereby strengthening its competitive foothold in its largest addressable market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Director Increases Shareholding

Ava Risk Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Mark Stevens acquiring an additional 100,599 fully paid ordinary shares through on-market purchases. This change, which took place between November 28 and December 1, 2025, increases Stevens’ total holdings to 1,821,780 shares, reflecting a strategic investment move that may influence the company’s market perception and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group’s BQT Solutions Secures Strategic Partnership with UniKey Technologies

Ava Risk Group’s BQT Solutions division has signed a five-year agreement with UniKey Technologies to co-develop a new range of NFC/BLE access control readers. This partnership is expected to generate $4.6 million in revenue for BQT and positions the company as a key hardware partner in the rapidly growing mobile-first access control market. The agreement provides BQT with exclusive supply rights in North America and global distribution rights, enhancing its market reach and ensuring predictable revenue streams.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.

Ava Risk Group Announces CEO Transition Amidst Strong Growth

Ava Risk Group announced the retirement of CEO Mal Maginnis, effective January 22, 2026, with Neville Joyce stepping in as Acting CEO. Under Maginnis’s leadership, Ava underwent significant strategic and operational changes, including the release of the Aura Ai-X platform and achieving major account wins. The company experienced strong revenue growth and improved its financial position, leaving it well-positioned for future growth. The Board has initiated a global search for a new CEO to continue this momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVA) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ava Risk Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AVA Stock Forecast page.