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ASX Limited (AU:ASX)
:ASX

ASX (ASX) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ASX

ASX

(OTC:ASX)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$58.00
▲(1.13% Upside)
The overall stock score of 54 reflects a mixed outlook. The most significant factor is the strong profitability margins, but this is overshadowed by concerns over declining revenue and cash flow. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, while valuation offers some support with a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. The earnings call provided a balanced view with strong financial metrics but highlighted regulatory and operational challenges.

ASX (ASX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

ASX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionASX Limited operates as a multi-asset class and integrated exchange company in Australia and internationally. It operates markets for a range of asset classes, including equities, fixed income, commodities, and energy. The company provides listings, trading, clearing, settlement, registry, technical and information, and other post-trade services; securities and derivatives exchange, and ancillary services; and central counterparty clearing services. It is also involved in the depository, and settlement activities, as well as delivery-versus-payment clearing of financial products; and provision of data and technology services to intermediaries, banks, information vendors, and software developers to enable them to make decisions, offer services to their clients, and connect with one another. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyASX generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to market participants for trading activities on its exchange, including equities and derivatives. Additional revenue streams include clearing and settlement fees, which are levied for the processing of trades and ensuring their completion. ASX also earns income from market data services, providing real-time and historical data to traders and financial institutions. Furthermore, the company has established partnerships with technology providers and financial institutions, enhancing its service offerings and driving additional revenue through innovations in trading technologies and market infrastructure.

ASX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
ASX reported a strong financial performance with significant revenue growth across its segments and successful new product launches. However, the ASIC compliance inquiry and associated costs, along with challenges in operational risk management, present notable concerns. Despite these issues, the strong financial metrics and positive shareholder returns contribute to a balanced outlook.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
ASX delivered operating revenue of $1.11 billion in FY '25, up 7% from the previous year. Underlying net profit after tax increased by 7.5%, and statutory profit was up by 6%.
Improvements in EBITDA Margin
The EBITDA margin increased by 70 basis points to 62.8%, with a target for further margin expansion over the medium term.
Growth in Markets Business
Markets business revenue increased by 10.7% to $349.2 million, driven by a 19.5% increase in futures and options volumes.
Technology & Data Business Success
Technology & Data business revenue rose by 8% to $275.6 million, with strong demand for data across equities and derivatives markets.
Securities & Payments Business Growth
Revenue from Securities & Payments increased by 7.4% to $274.4 million, supported by strong activity in cash markets.
Successful Launch of New Products
ASX launched several new products, including the debt market activity product and ASX Colo OnDemand, contributing to growth in the Technology & Data segment.
Positive Shareholder Returns
The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of $1.121 per share, with a total dividend of $2.233 per share, an increase of 7.4%.
Negative Updates
ASIC Compliance Inquiry
ASIC has initiated a compliance assessment into ASX's governance, capability, and risk management frameworks, with a significant impact on resources and expenses.
Cost Pressures and Expense Growth
Total expenses rose by 7.2% to $460.3 million, with technology expenses and regulatory costs contributing to the increase. FY '26 expenses are expected to grow further due to the ASIC inquiry.
Challenges in Operational Risk Management
ASX acknowledged it is not where it wants to be in terms of operational risk management and resilience, necessitating the Accelerate program to improve these areas.
Sympli Operating Losses
ASX's share of Sympli's operating loss was $11 million, with ongoing uncertainty around the timing of interoperability between e-conveyancing platforms.
Company Guidance
During the ASX's fiscal year 2025 results briefing, key metrics highlighted strong financial performance, with operating revenue reaching $1.11 billion, a 7% increase from the previous year. The underlying net profit after tax rose by 7.5%, and statutory profit increased by 6%. The company declared a fully franked final dividend of $1.121 per share, contributing to a total dividend of $2.233 per share, up 7.4%. The EBITDA margin improved by 70 basis points to 62.8%, while the underlying return on equity rose by 60 basis points to 13.6%. ASX's capital expenditure for FY '25 was $176 million, with future guidance indicating a range of $170 million to $180 million for FY '26. Total expenses rose by 7.2% to $460.3 million, driven by technology and regulatory expenses. The Accelerate program was emphasized as a key initiative for operational risk management and resilience uplift, with further focus on technology modernization and customer-driven growth opportunities.

ASX Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The financial performance is mixed. While profitability margins are strong, with a net profit margin of 86.05% and an EBIT margin of 207.77%, the significant decline in revenue growth (-65.14%) and free cash flow (-78.98%) raises concerns about future growth prospects. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but the cash flow situation needs improvement.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows a significant decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -65.14% in the latest period. Despite this, the company maintains strong profitability margins, with a net profit margin of 86.05% and an EBIT margin of 207.77%. However, the drastic revenue drop is a major concern, overshadowing the strong margins.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating low leverage and financial risk. The equity ratio is healthy, and the company has a strong equity base. However, the return on equity is not available for the latest period, which limits the assessment of profitability from shareholders' perspective.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning decline in free cash flow growth at -78.98%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.02, indicating potential issues in converting income into cash. While the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, the overall cash flow position is weak due to the significant decline in free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue584.10M584.10M1.05B1.02B1.04B962.30M
Gross Profit89.70M89.70M1.05B976.80M989.30M906.70M
EBITDA1.28B1.26B1.18B819.40M796.50M757.40M
Net Income502.60M502.60M474.20M317.30M508.50M480.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets17.57B17.57B16.89B16.83B18.24B16.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.90B13.90B13.42B13.51B14.46B13.38B
Total Debt310.90M12.60B334.30M78.60M67.60M72.40M
Total Liabilities13.70B13.70B13.16B13.19B14.43B12.86B
Stockholders Equity3.87B3.87B3.72B3.64B3.81B3.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow849.70M302.90M544.40M-3.51B97.60M4.99B
Operating Cash Flow1.02B302.90M682.20M-3.40B203.40M5.09B
Investing Cash Flow-132.80M-132.80M-93.00M-121.30M-126.90M-125.40M
Financing Cash Flow-408.30M-408.30M-149.60M-447.20M-450.80M-464.40M

ASX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price57.35
Price Trends
50DMA
57.83
Negative
100DMA
60.41
Negative
200DMA
64.15
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Positive
RSI
45.85
Neutral
STOCH
53.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ASX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.73, below the 50-day MA of 57.83, and below the 200-day MA of 64.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ASX.

ASX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
64
Neutral
AU$7.56B64.7367.81%1.44%28.29%39.39%
54
Neutral
AU$11.18B22.2112.95%3.89%7.63%5.81%
50
Neutral
AU$430.58M31.8012.27%2.74%24.56%59.32%
49
Neutral
€9.34B116.6315.22%0.57%24.44%68.80%
45
Neutral
AU$20.01M-4.4337.46%7.37%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ASX
ASX
57.12
-8.37
-12.78%
AU:HUB
HUB24 Limited
97.75
28.02
40.18%
AU:NSX
NSX Limited
0.04
0.02
100.00%
AU:PPS
Praemium Ltd
0.81
0.05
6.58%
AU:NWL
Netwealth Group Ltd.
26.65
-1.75
-6.16%

ASX Corporate Events

ASX Reports Significant Growth in November 2025 Capital Raisings
Dec 4, 2025

ASX Limited, a key player in the financial market infrastructure industry, reported significant growth in capital raisings for November 2025. The total new capital quoted reached $10.9 billion, a substantial increase from the previous year’s $4.3 billion. This growth was driven by a large increase in secondary capital raised and other capital raising activities. The report highlights a notable improvement in the total net new capital quoted, which was $9.3 billion compared to $4.3 billion in the previous corresponding period. This surge in capital activities indicates a robust market performance and could have positive implications for stakeholders, reflecting a strong market positioning for ASX.

ASX Limited Appoints New Director to Strengthen Leadership
Dec 4, 2025

ASX Limited has announced the appointment of Deidre McGrath as a new director, with the release of an Initial Director’s Interest Notice. This appointment is part of ASX’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership team, potentially impacting its strategic direction and governance, which could have implications for its stakeholders and market operations.

ASX Limited Strengthens Board with New Technology Expert
Dec 4, 2025

ASX Limited has announced the appointment of Dee McGrath as a new non-executive director to its board, aiming to enhance its technological expertise. With over 30 years of experience in business, technology, and financial services, McGrath is expected to bring valuable insights into technology-driven transformations, regulatory management, and governance, which are crucial for ASX during a period of significant change. Her appointment is part of ASX’s ongoing board renewal strategy, following recent appointments to strengthen its leadership team.

ASX Limited Issues New Performance Rights to Employees
Oct 28, 2025

ASX Limited has announced the issuance of 34,365 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of ASX’s strategy to motivate and retain key personnel, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and stakeholder value positively.

ASX Limited Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 28, 2025

ASX Limited announced a change in the director’s interest for Helen Lofthouse, as detailed in the Appendix 3Y notice. This update reflects compliance with regulatory requirements, ensuring transparency in the company’s governance and potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions of corporate oversight.

ASX Limited AGM Results: Strong Shareholder Support
Oct 23, 2025

ASX Limited’s Annual General Meeting on October 23, 2025, resulted in all resolutions being carried by poll, including the adoption of the 2025 remuneration report, which avoided a ‘second strike’ under the Corporations Act 2001. The spill resolution was deemed ineffective due to the favorable outcome of Resolution 3, indicating strong shareholder support for the current remuneration structure and board decisions.

ASX Reports Significant Capital Growth Amid Dynamic Market Shifts
Oct 6, 2025

In September 2025, ASX Limited reported a significant increase in total new capital quoted, reaching $25.6 billion compared to $6.0 billion in the previous year. Despite a decrease in net new capital quoted by 44% compared to the previous year, the year-to-date figures showed a positive turnaround with $5.9 billion compared to a negative $16.0 billion previously. The report highlights a large change in quoted market capitalisation of new listings and a substantial increase in secondary capital raised, indicating a robust market activity. However, the number of entities de-listed also increased, reflecting a dynamic and shifting market landscape.

ASX Limited Updates Office Location and Confirms AGM Details
Oct 1, 2025

ASX Limited has announced a change in its registered office and principal place of business to a new location in Sydney, effective immediately. This move is part of the company’s ongoing operational updates, with no changes to its main contact number or email addresses. The announcement also confirms the details of the upcoming 2025 Annual General Meeting, which will be held at the ASX Auditorium in Sydney.

ASX Limited Updates Director’s Interest Notice
Sep 23, 2025

ASX Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Dr. Heather Joy Smith, reflecting an acquisition of 70 fully paid ordinary shares. This update indicates a minor adjustment in the shareholding structure, which may have implications for the company’s governance and stakeholder interests.

ASX Limited Announces Director’s Interest Change for David Curran
Sep 23, 2025

ASX Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice for David Curran, highlighting an acquisition of 65 fully paid ordinary shares by Palicress Pty Ltd, a trustee for the DCAC Superannuation Fund, where Curran is a director and shareholder. This change reflects a minor adjustment in the director’s shareholding, indicating ongoing engagement with the company’s equity, which may interest stakeholders monitoring director-level investments.

ASX Limited Announces Director’s Interest Change for Wayne Byres
Sep 23, 2025

ASX Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Wayne Byres, who has acquired 55 fully paid ordinary shares, increasing his total holdings to 3,096 shares. This update reflects the company’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting stakeholders’ perception of governance practices.

ASX Limited Announces Details for 2025 Annual General Meeting
Sep 19, 2025

ASX Limited has announced the details for its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), scheduled for October 23, 2025, at 10:00 am Sydney time. The notice provides comprehensive instructions for shareholders on how to participate, vote, and ask questions during the meeting. The AGM will be accessible through ASX’s website, which will also host a recording of the proceedings post-event. This announcement underscores ASX’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, potentially impacting investor relations positively.

ASX Limited Announces Change in Director’s Interest for Helen Lofthouse
Sep 11, 2025

ASX Limited announced a change in the director’s interest for Helen Lofthouse, who has been awarded fully paid ordinary shares under the ASX Employee Share Gift Plan. This update reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

ASX Limited Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Sep 8, 2025

ASX Limited announced an update to its previous dividend distribution notification, specifying the NZD currency exchange rate, the NZD equivalent amount per security, and the dividend reinvestment plan price. This update is relevant to stakeholders as it provides clarity on the financial details of the dividend distribution for the period ending June 30, 2025, and may impact investors’ decisions regarding reinvestment options.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025