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ASX
(Sydney:ASX)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$55.00
▲(1.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality signals (sharp revenue and free-cash-flow declines and poor cash conversion) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative momentum). These risks are partly offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and an earnings-call picture that is positive on revenue/modernization progress but tempered by higher cost guidance, regulatory remediation, and leadership transition risk.
Positive Factors
Market Franchise
ASX’s core business is a national exchange and post-trade infrastructure with high fixed-cost recovery, strong network effects and significant switching frictions. These structural characteristics generate recurring fee income and long-term pricing power across trading, clearing and listings.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
A severe drop in free cash flow and near-zero conversion of reported income into operating cash signal structural cash-generation issues. Persistently weak cash conversion constrains internal funding for capex, dividends and modernization without relying on capital actions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market Franchise
ASX’s core business is a national exchange and post-trade infrastructure with high fixed-cost recovery, strong network effects and significant switching frictions. These structural characteristics generate recurring fee income and long-term pricing power across trading, clearing and listings.
Read all positive factors
ASX (ASX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$11.83B
Dividend Yield3.6%
Average Volume (3M)654.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.7
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth2.73%
EPS Growth-3.76%
CountryAU
Employees1,354
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.69
Shares Outstanding195,409,850
10 Day Avg. Volume836,253
30 Day Avg. Volume654,953
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.71
Price to Book (P/B)3.49
Price to Sales (P/S)7.90
P/FCF Ratio44.68
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$55.20Price Target Upside1.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.31B
ASX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ASX Limited operates as a comprehensive, integrated exchange entity, managing diverse asset classes both within Australia and across global markets. The company facilitates marketplaces for various types of assets, such as shares, bonds, raw mater...
How the Company Makes Money
ASX makes money primarily by charging fees for the use of its markets and post-trade infrastructure, plus revenues from information and technology services. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Trading services: fees linked to on-exchange tr...
ASX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong top-line performance, cross-business revenue growth, successful delivery of key technology milestones (notably CHESS Release 1), significant listings momentum and early FY'27 market strength. Offsetting these positives are substantial and continuing expense increases (driven by technology modernisation, Accelerate remediation and licence/consultancy costs), statutory profit impacts from significant items, a credit rating downgrade and capital accumulation requirements tied to regulatory commitments. Management has set clear FY'27 guidance (higher expense and capex ranges), reset governance and outlined multi-year transformation priorities, but near-term margin and capital pressures remain material.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Operating revenue of $1.25 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, driven by volume and product activity across the portfolio.
Negative Updates
Expense Growth and Margin Pressure
Total expenses increased 21.1% to $557.4 million; EBITDA margin declined 180 bps to 61%. Excluding ASIC Inquiry costs, expense growth was 14.4% and EBITDA margin would be 63.4% (up 60 bps). FY'27 total expense growth guidance 18–21%.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Operating revenue of $1.25 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, driven by volume and product activity across the portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ASX reconfirmed FY‑27 guidance with total expense growth of 18–21% (operating expense growth excluding depreciation & amortisation 13–16%), noting ~5% of the FY‑27 expense increase will come from higher D&A; capital expenditure is guided to $180–200m in FY‑27 (FY‑28: $170–190m). The Board set a final FY‑26 dividend of $1.047/share (total FY‑26 dividend $2.065/share), operating the DRP with a 2.5% discount and lowering the payout to ~75% of underlying NPAT (target range 75–85%); ASX reiterated a medium‑term underlying ROE target of 12–14% and aims to accumulate $150m above the 31‑Dec‑2025 NTA by 30‑Jun‑2027 (currently $132.9m remaining). Management also highlighted liquidity and capital actions (holding $250m cash above regulatory requirements, a $400m undrawn debt facility and planned refinancing of $275m bonds in H1 FY‑27) and referred to FY‑26 metrics underpinning the guidance: operating revenue $1.25bn (+13.3%), total expenses $557.4m (+21.1%), underlying NPAT +5.2%, EBITDA margin 61% (‑180bps), underlying EPS $2.758 and underlying ROE 13.7% (up 10bps).ASX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.50B | 1.71B | 1.59B | 1.42B | 1.10B | 1.02B |
| Gross Profit | 1.32B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.34B | 991.70M | 911.80M |
| EBITDA | 1.04B | 1.27B | 1.18B | 819.40M | 796.50M | 757.40M |
| Net Income | 522.70M | 502.60M | 474.20M | 317.30M | 508.50M | 480.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.02B | 17.57B | 16.89B | 16.83B | 18.24B | 16.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.23B | 13.90B | 13.42B | 13.51B | 14.46B | 13.38B |
| Total Debt | 11.45B | 12.60B | 334.30M | 78.60M | 67.60M | 72.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 12.11B | 13.70B | 13.16B | 13.19B | 14.43B | 12.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.90B | 3.87B | 3.72B | 3.64B | 3.81B | 3.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -199.20M | 302.90M | 544.40M | -3.51B | 97.60M | 4.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -28.10M | 1.02B | 682.20M | -405.70M | 1.66B | 120.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -120.50M | -132.80M | -93.00M | -121.30M | -126.90M | -125.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -426.40M | -408.30M | -149.60M | -447.20M | -450.80M | -464.40M |
ASX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | AU$206.50M | 11.69 | 16.49% | 17.89% | 29.80% | 68.37% | |
70 Outperform | AU$23.58B | 27.03 | 27.34% | 2.56% | 0.11% | -2.37% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | AU$95.71B | 20.49 | 13.72% | 2.74% | 4.80% | 30.56% | |
60 Neutral | AU$1.06B | 27.74 | 9.94% | 2.07% | 0.68% | 26.29% | |
52 Neutral | AU$11.83B | 21.67 | 13.44% | 3.86% | 2.73% | -3.76% | |
45 Neutral | AU$2.14M | -0.41 | 236.32% | ― | -18.21% | 12.67% |
* Financial Sector Average
AU:ASX
ASX
58.29
-2.13
-3.52%
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40.46
0.64
1.60%
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Macquarie Group Limited
261.90
51.23
24.32%
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Euroz Hartleys Group Limited
1.34
0.48
55.63%
AU:ABE
Australian Bond Exchange Holdings Ltd.
0.01
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-56.67%
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5.44
2.52
86.17%
ASX Corporate Events
ASX Reports Softer May Capital Raisings but Stronger Year-to-Date Growth
Jun 3, 2026
ASX Limited has reported its May 2026 activity figures, showing total new capital quoted of $3.5 billion, down sharply from $6.8 billion a year earlier, as well as a negative net new capital quoted position of $2.0 billion for the month. Despite t...
ASX files final director interest notice as Helen Lofthouse exits board
May 29, 2026
ASX Limited has announced the cessation of Helen Lofthouse as a director effective 29 May 2026, lodging a final director’s interest notice that details her remaining equity interests in the company. The filing confirms her holdings of fully ...
ASX lifts tech spending guidance, trims ROE target and exits Sympli venture
May 26, 2026
ASX has issued guidance for FY27 indicating total expense growth of 18% to 21%, driven mainly by an accelerated technology modernisation program, remediation work following the ASIC inquiry and investment in customer-focused growth initiatives. Ca...
ASX appoints Vic Jokovic to board with no initial shareholding
May 8, 2026
ASX Limited has appointed Vic John Jokovic as a director, with his appointment effective from 4 May 2026, according to an initial director’s interest notice lodged with the exchange. The filing shows Jokovic currently holds no relevant inter...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.