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APA Group (AU:APA)
ASX:APA

APA Group (APA) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:APA

APA Group

(Sydney:APA)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.50
▲(9.57% Upside)
The overall stock score for APA Group is driven primarily by its operational efficiency and positive technical indicators. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and the company's high leverage poses financial risks. The attractive dividend yield provides some support to the valuation.

APA Group (APA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

APA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAPA Group engages in energy infrastructure business in Australia. The company operates through three segments: Energy Infrastructure, Asset Management, and Energy Investments. It operates natural gas pipelines, electricity interconnectors, gas fired power generation stations, and solar farms and wind farms, as well as gas storage, processing, and compression facilities. The company has interests in approximately 15,000 kilometers of gas transmission pipelines; approximately 29,500 kilometers of gas mains and pipelines; and 1.4 million gas consumer connections. It also provides commercial, operating, and asset maintenance services to its energy investments and third parties; and invests in unlisted entities. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAPA Group generates revenue primarily through the transportation of natural gas via its pipeline network, which includes long-term contracts with customers in the energy sector. The company earns fees based on the volume of gas transported and the capacity reserved by its clients, providing a steady income stream. Additionally, APA's investments in power generation and renewable energy projects contribute to its earnings, allowing the company to diversify its revenue sources. Significant partnerships with energy producers and retailers further enhance APA's market position, while regulatory frameworks and long-term contracts provide stability to its revenue model. The company's ability to adapt to changing energy demands and invest in sustainable projects also plays a crucial role in its financial performance.

APA Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
APA Group demonstrates operational efficiency with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, challenges include declining net income and revenue growth, coupled with high leverage. While cash flow generation is strong, high debt levels pose a risk to financial stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
APA Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has maintained a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin has significantly declined from the previous year, primarily due to a substantial drop in net income. The revenue growth rate has turned negative, which is a concern for future growth prospects.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity has decreased, reflecting lower profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a positive trend in free cash flow growth, which is a strong indicator of financial health. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting good cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low, indicating limited cash available after capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.19B3.14B3.03B2.83B2.69B2.56B
Gross Profit2.04B1.00B2.81B947.00M911.02M923.86M
EBITDA2.00B1.94B2.62B1.70B1.66B1.36B
Net Income99.00M99.00M978.00M263.00M230.56M-42.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.94B19.94B19.56B16.52B16.20B15.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments800.00M800.00M676.00M513.00M940.28M663.04M
Total Debt14.02B14.02B12.99B11.59B10.96B9.99B
Total Liabilities17.27B17.27B16.32B14.61B13.57B12.17B
Stockholders Equity1.92B1.92B3.25B1.91B2.63B2.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow366.00M320.00M60.00M26.00M508.22M618.03M
Operating Cash Flow1.28B1.28B1.16B1.21B1.20B1.05B
Investing Cash Flow-947.00M-947.00M-2.66B-969.00M-1.27B-432.02M
Financing Cash Flow-212.00M-212.00M1.66B-664.00M360.66M-1.14B

APA Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.67
Price Trends
50DMA
8.95
Negative
100DMA
8.82
Negative
200DMA
8.37
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Positive
RSI
38.47
Neutral
STOCH
30.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:APA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.88, below the 50-day MA of 8.95, and above the 200-day MA of 8.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:APA.

APA Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
63
Neutral
$11.46B114.013.23%6.26%4.61%-90.28%
50
Neutral
AU$5.86B-59.51-1.75%5.17%5.96%-113.79%
45
Neutral
AU$19.18M-5.44-38.32%2.69%-273.87%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:APA
APA Group
8.67
2.16
33.24%
AU:AGL
AGL Energy
8.67
-2.46
-22.10%
AU:LPE
Locality Planning Energy Holdings Limited
0.11
-0.04
-25.00%

APA Group Corporate Events

APA Group to Divest 20% Stake in Allgas Network as Part of Business Simplification
Dec 17, 2025

APA Group announced it will divest its 20% equity stake in GDI (EII) Pty Ltd, owner of the Allgas Network, to Stonepeak in a deal that will simplify APA’s business strategy. The sale, contributing an estimated $64 million, aligns with APA’s focus on cost reduction and supports its growth-focused strategy, aiming for a streamlined portfolio while exiting non-core gas distribution assets. The deal is set to close by Q1 2026 and demonstrates APA’s commitment to optimizing its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Sell with a A$7.74 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Releases 2026 Calendar of Key Corporate Events
Dec 10, 2025

APA Group has announced its 2026 calendar of events, detailing key dates for financial results, distributions, and the annual meeting. This announcement provides stakeholders with a timeline for important corporate activities, ensuring transparency and engagement with investors and shareholders. The calendar includes dates for interim and final distributions, financial results announcements, and the annual meeting, which are crucial for stakeholders to plan their participation and engagement with the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Sell with a A$7.74 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Announces Increased Interim Distribution and Reinvestment Plan
Dec 10, 2025

APA Group announced an estimated interim distribution of 27.5 cents per security for the six months ending 31 December 2025, marking a 1.9% increase from the previous year’s interim distribution. The company expects total distributions for FY26 to be 58.0 cents per security, with key distribution dates set for late December 2025 and March 2026. The Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) will be available at a 1.5% discount, allowing securityholders to reinvest distributions into additional securities without incurring market purchase costs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Sell with a A$7.74 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Announces New Dividend Distribution
Dec 10, 2025

APA Group has announced a new dividend distribution for its fully paid units stapled securities, with a distribution amount of AUD 0.275 per unit. The record date for this distribution is set for December 31, 2025, with payment scheduled for March 18, 2026. This announcement reflects APA Group’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and may impact its financial positioning by potentially enhancing investor confidence and market stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Sell with a A$7.74 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group’s Credit Rating Boosts Growth Funding Capacity
Dec 8, 2025

APA Group has received a positive modification from S&P Global Ratings, which has affirmed its BBB (stable) long-term credit rating while lowering the FFO/Debt threshold from 9.5% to 8.5%. This change enhances APA’s capacity to fund growth by more than $1 billion from its existing balance sheet, supporting its strategic focus on capturing long-term opportunities. The modification is expected to bolster APA’s growth strategy and provide additional funding support for its projects, positively impacting its operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Sell with a A$7.74 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Completes Divestment of Gas Distribution Operations
Dec 1, 2025

APA Group has completed the divestment of its Networks business, which includes gas distribution operations and maintenance services. This move is part of APA’s strategy to simplify its business and focus on key growth platforms, as the divested entities contributed less than 2% to the company’s FY25 Underlying EBITDA. The transition of services and approximately 725 employees has been completed smoothly, with APA providing transitional services for up to 18 months. The sale proceeds are estimated at $29 million, excluding the Tamworth gas distribution network, which is expected to complete in early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Sell with a A$7.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Partners with CS Energy for Brigalow Peaking Power Plant Development
Nov 30, 2025

APA Group has entered into a Joint Development Agreement with CS Energy to develop the Brigalow Peaking Power Plant, a 400MW gas power station in Queensland. This project, expected to be operational by 2028, will enhance APA’s capabilities in gas-powered generation and support the integration of renewable energy. APA will lead the project and acquire an 80% ownership stake, with CS Energy maintaining a 20% stake and operational responsibilities. The project aligns with APA’s growth strategy and is part of its $2.1 billion organic growth pipeline, aiming to deliver consistent returns and energy security.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Sell with a A$7.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Announces Director’s Interest Change with New Performance Rights Grant
Nov 2, 2025

APA Group has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding Adam Watson, a director of the company. Mr. Watson has been granted 343,014 performance rights as part of the company’s long-term incentive arrangements, which were approved by APA securityholders at the 2025 Annual Meeting. This change reflects APA Group’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with company performance, potentially impacting the company’s operational strategies and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Hold with a A$8.68 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Issues New Performance Rights to Employees
Nov 2, 2025

APA Group has announced the issuance of 1,272,217 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain its workforce, which could enhance operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Hold with a A$8.68 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

APA Group Annual Meeting: Key Resolutions Passed, Constitutional Amendment Rejected
Oct 22, 2025

APA Group held its annual meeting where all resolutions, including the adoption of the remuneration report, climate transition plan, and director nominations, were carried by a poll. However, the proposed amendment to the constitution of APA Infrastructure Trust was not carried. These decisions reflect APA’s ongoing commitment to its strategic initiatives and governance, impacting its operational focus and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:APA) stock is a Hold with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APA Group stock, see the AU:APA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 04, 2025