Air Transport Services (ATSG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 55.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: -5.25%
• EPS Growth: -49.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,745
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 59,364,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,256,024
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,324,770
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.75
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 2.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $22.50
• Price Target Upside: 0.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

Air Transport Services presents a solid financial foundation with improved cash flows and a strengthened balance sheet. Notable corporate events, such as its acquisition, provide potential for future growth and operational enhancements. However, the high P/E ratio and potential overbought technical indicators suggest caution is warranted due to the stock's expensive valuation and limited short-term upside.

Air Transport Services Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Transport Services Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides aircraft leasing and air cargo transportation and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers aircraft, flight crews, aircraft maintenance, aircraft hull and liability insurance, and aviation fuel services; and aircraft maintenance and modification services, including airframe modification and heavy maintenance, component repairs, engineering services, and aircraft line maintenance. It also provides equipment maintenance services; cargo load transfer and package sorting services; crew training services; and airline express operation, line and heavy maintenance, and ground handling services. The company's ground support services include labor and management for cargo load transfer and sorting; design, installation, and maintenance of material handling equipment; leasing and maintenance of ground support equipment; and general facilities maintenance. In addition, it offers equipment installation and maintenance, vehicle maintenance and repair, jet fuel, and deicing services. Further, the company operates cargo and passenger transportation business; resells and brokers aircraft parts; and performs passenger-to-freighter and passenger-to-combi conversions of aircrafts. It provides its services to delivery companies, freight forwarders, airlines, air transportation, e-commerce, package delivery, and logistics industries, as well as government customers. As of December 31, 2021, the company's in-service aircraft fleet consisted of 107 owned aircraft and ten leased aircraft. The company was formerly known as ABX Holdings, Inc. Air Transport Services Group, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is based in Wilmington, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

ATSG generates revenue through multiple streams. A significant portion comes from leasing aircraft to customers, which includes both dry leasing (aircraft only) and wet leasing (aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance). Additionally, ATSG offers air cargo transportation services, primarily through its subsidiary airlines. The company also provides aircraft maintenance and repair services, further diversifying its income sources. Key partnerships, such as long-term agreements with major delivery companies like Amazon and DHL, play a critical role in ATSG's revenue generation, ensuring steady and predictable income.

Air Transport Services Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Transport Services shows a mixed financial performance with robust profitability and improved cash flows, despite a decline in revenue. The company's balance sheet is strengthened by reduced leverage and increased equity, enhancing financial stability. However, the decline in EBIT margin poses operational challenges. Overall, the financial health is solid with room for growth in revenue and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals mixed performance for Air Transport Services. While the company experienced a decline in total revenue by approximately 5.2% in 2024 compared to 2023, there was a notable improvement in gross profit margin, rising to 43.5% in 2024 from 9.6% in 2023. Net profit margin improved slightly from 2.9% to 2.9%. The EBIT margin, however, showed a considerable decrease, reflecting operational challenges. Overall, the financial performance indicates positive profitability margins but declining revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a strengthened equity position with stockholders' equity increasing to $1.484 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has significantly improved from 1.33 in 2023 to 0.04 in 2024, indicating lower leverage. However, the equity ratio slightly decreased from 35.3% in 2023 to 38.1% in 2024, indicating a stable capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a solid financial foundation with reduced debt levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights robust cash generation capabilities, with operating cash flow remaining stable at $654 million in 2024. The free cash flow turned positive to $654 million in 2024 from negative $139 million in 2023, demonstrating improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting effective cash conversion. These factors indicate solid liquidity and financial flexibility.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.96B	2.07B	2.05B	2.05B	1.73B
	Gross Profit
344.93M	199.83M	485.77M	485.77M	373.93M
	EBIT
127.80M	199.83M	285.48M	-57.51M	-11.83M
	EBITDA
540.66M	507.65M	638.42M	674.95M	382.35M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
27.43M	60.33M	198.58M	231.42M	231.42M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
60.58M	53.55M	27.13M	27.13M	69.50M
	Total Assets
3.89B	3.88B	3.59B	3.59B	3.27B
	Total Debt
54.54M	1.82B	1.54B	1.54B	1.36B
	Net Debt
-6.04M	1.76B	1.51B	1.51B	1.29B
	Total Liabilities
2.41B	2.51B	2.18B	2.18B	1.94B
	Stockholders Equity
1.48B	1.37B	1.41B	1.41B	1.32B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
654.08M	-139.37M	-127.31M	-127.31M	78.81M
	Operating Cash Flow
654.08M	654.08M	472.12M	472.12M	583.56M
	Investing Cash Flow
-765.93M	-765.93M	-600.06M	-600.06M	-487.48M
	Financing Cash Flow
138.27M	138.27M	85.58M	85.58M	-66.30M

Air Transport Services Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.48
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATSG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.43, above the 50-day MA of 22.35, and above the 200-day MA of 19.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATSG.

Air Transport Services Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATSG	69 Neutral	$1.48B	55.88	1.92%	―	-5.25%	-49.90%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$4.29B	11.05	5.73%	232.30%	4.75%	-5.69%
ULCC	61 Neutral	$721.74M	8.60	15.12%	―	5.18%	―
SNCY	60 Neutral	$472.04M	9.28	9.75%	―	2.49%	-22.41%
ALGT	50 Neutral	$795.51M	―	-19.93%	5.53%	0.11%	-311.73%
JBLU	42 Neutral	$1.21B	―	-26.60%	―	-3.50%	-148.99%
UP	28 Underperform	$573.07M	―	-2416.94%	―	-36.80%	96.50%

Air Transport Services Corporate Events

Air Transport Services Acquired by Stonepeak for $3.1 Billion

On April 11, 2025, Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (ATSG) completed its acquisition by Stonepeak, a leading alternative investment firm, in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $3.1 billion. As a result of the merger, ATSG’s common shares ceased trading on NASDAQ, and the company will focus on enhancing its capabilities and sustaining long-term growth as a private entity. The merger also led to changes in the company’s financial structure, including the conversion of 2029 Notes into cash, the issuance of new secured notes, and the establishment of new credit facilities. These changes are expected to impact ATSG’s operations and market positioning, offering potential benefits to its stakeholders.

Spark’s Take on ATSG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, ATSG is a Neutral.

Air Transport Services scores moderately due to solid financial performance with strengthened balance sheet and improved cash flows. However, the decline in EBIT margin and negative valuation metrics like the P/E ratio pose significant risks. The stock shows upward technical momentum but is near overbought levels, which could limit further gains. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events reduces insights into recent strategic directions.

To see Spark’s full report on ATSG stock, click here.

Air Transport Services Awaits Acquisition and Financial Disclosure

Air Transport Services Group, Inc. is set to be acquired by Stonepeak Nile Parent LLC and Stonepeak Nile MergerCo Inc., as part of a pending acquisition. The company is preparing to release preliminary estimated unaudited financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2024, to prospective lenders in connection with a potential debt financing transaction.