AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.57B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 15.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -85.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 489
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Hardware & Equipment
• EPS (TTM): -1.96
• Shares Outstanding: 227,101,460
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,226,379
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,232,961
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5563.59
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -79.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $32.73
• Price Target Upside: -2.01% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

AST SpaceMobile shows promise with strong technical momentum and strategic advancements reflected in the earnings call. However, significant financial performance challenges and valuation concerns weigh down the overall score. Continued operational improvements and regulatory progress are crucial for enhancing the outlook.

AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a satellite communications company focused on building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by standard mobile phones. Operating within the telecommunications and aerospace sectors, the company's core product is its satellite network, designed to provide seamless mobile connectivity across the globe, especially in underserved and remote areas. AST SpaceMobile aims to eliminate coverage gaps and enhance connectivity for users worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

AST SpaceMobile makes money primarily through partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) who pay for access to its satellite network to enhance their service offerings. The company enters into agreements with MNOs, allowing them to use its satellite infrastructure to provide broader and more reliable coverage to their customers. This model allows AST SpaceMobile to earn revenue through service fees or revenue-sharing agreements with these operators. Additionally, the company may explore direct service offerings and strategic partnerships to expand its revenue streams as its network becomes operational.

AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AST SpaceMobile is in a growth phase but faces significant challenges in profitability and cash flow. The income statement shows negative EBIT and EBITDA, while cash flow remains negative despite high financing. The balance sheet is relatively stable due to low debt, but equity erosion through net losses is a concern.

Income Statement

AST SpaceMobile's income statement reveals significant challenges in profitability. With a consistent negative EBIT and EBITDA, the company struggles with operational efficiency. Revenue growth is volatile, and net profit margins are deeply negative, indicating high expenses relative to revenue. The gross profit margin appears positive for the latest period but is overshadowed by the substantial net losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a mixed picture of financial stability. The company has a favorable equity ratio with significant stockholders' equity and low debt levels, but the high net debt position indicates reliance on external financing. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the consistent erosion of equity through net losses presents a risk to long-term financial health.

Cash Flow

AST SpaceMobile faces cash flow challenges with persistently negative free cash flow, indicating that operational and capital expenditures exceed cash generated from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showcasing inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. Despite high financing cash flow, the company's free cash flow remains significantly negative, highlighting cash management issues.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.42M	24.34M	13.82M	12.40M	5.97M
	Gross Profit
4.42M	-30.13M	7.11M	4.84M	2.94M
	EBIT
-242.76M	-222.37M	-164.88M	-102.51M	-24.26M
	EBITDA
-442.98M	-166.53M	-141.05M	-83.83M	-23.47M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-300.08M	-87.56M	-103.11M	-73.26M	-24.41M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
564.99M	85.62M	238.59M	321.79M	42.78M
	Total Assets
954.56M	360.89M	438.37M	443.94M	99.64M
	Total Debt
17.43M	72.87M	12.53M	13.16M	7.04M
	Net Debt
-547.56M	-12.75M	-226.06M	-308.63M	-35.73M
	Total Liabilities
285.42M	147.33M	78.55M	91.96M	19.66M
	Stockholders Equity
669.15M	98.99M	133.53M	100.28M	77.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-300.27M	-267.75M	-213.75M	-134.89M	-53.21M
	Operating Cash Flow
-126.14M	-148.94M	-156.46M	-80.09M	-22.80M
	Investing Cash Flow
-174.13M	-118.81M	-31.35M	-54.79M	-30.41M
	Financing Cash Flow
779.97M	116.73M	102.34M	416.94M	69.66M

AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.35, above the 50-day MA of 24.89, and above the 200-day MA of 21.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTS.

AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IRDM	72 Outperform	$3.30B	32.19	15.40%	1.79%	5.05%	632.38%
ASTS	61 Neutral	$10.57B	―	-103.82%	―	―	-85.21%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$22.39B	11.53	-18.05%	2.31%	5.00%	-25.89%
SPIR	57 Neutral	$281.96M	―	-132.51%	―	24.15%	35.73%
SATL	52 Neutral	$282.61M	―	-118.08%	―	―	―
GSAT	46 Neutral	$2.83B	―	-17.12%	―	11.86%	-140.69%
RKLB	45 Neutral	$8.53B	―	-40.59%	―	78.34%	-1.13%

AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events

AST SpaceMobile Reports 2024 Financial Results and Growth

AST SpaceMobile announced its business update and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting significant advancements in its commercialization efforts and strategic agreements. The company secured a long-term commercial agreement with Vodafone and a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency, enhancing its market position in the direct-to-device satellite communications industry. AST SpaceMobile also achieved operational status for its first five BlueBird satellites and is accelerating satellite manufacturing to expand its network. Financially, the company reported nearly $1 billion in cash and a decrease in operating expenses, positioning it well for future growth.

AST SpaceMobile Announces Board of Directors Changes

On January 29, 2025, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. experienced changes in its Board of Directors with the resignation of Christopher Sambar, who was a designee of AT&T Venture Investments, LLC. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company. Keith Larson was appointed as a new director by AT&T, effective January 30, 2025, to fill the vacancy created by Sambar’s resignation. Larson, who has a rich history in strategic investment roles, declined compensation for his board service. Additionally, Andrew Johnson, who has been serving as the company’s CFO and CLO since 2024, was appointed as a director to fill another existing vacancy, bringing his extensive legal and business experience to the board.

AST SpaceMobile Restructures Debt and Plans New Note Offering

On January 22, 2025, AST SpaceMobile announced its decision to convert approximately $148.5 million of its 5.50% convertible PIK toggle notes due 2034 into shares of Class A common stock, at a conversion price of $5.75 per share, resulting in the issuance of approximately 25.8 million shares. This move aims to streamline the company’s financial obligations and improve its capital structure by eliminating the 2034 Convertible Notes upon their conversion. Additionally, AST SpaceMobile revealed plans to offer $400 million in new notes, with an option for purchasers to acquire an additional $60 million, targeting qualified institutional buyers, indicating a strategic effort to enhance liquidity and financial flexibility.

AST SpaceMobile Secures Spectrum to Enhance US Coverage

AST SpaceMobile has announced a binding agreement with Ligado Networks to gain long-term access to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band spectrum in the United States, enhancing its space-based cellular broadband capabilities. This access is expected to significantly boost AST SpaceMobile’s operational capacity, enabling peak data transmission speeds of up to 120 Mbps and improving its market position by expanding subscriber capacity and coverage across the United States.