AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $34.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 14.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.64
• Revenue Growth: 641.24%
• EPS Growth: 41.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 578
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): -0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 278,010,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,345,435
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,077,525
• PEG Ratio: 1.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 262.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -16.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 360.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 674.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -66.33
• 1Y Price Target: $97.60
• Price Target Upside: 5.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $227.38M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $89.00 ▼(-3.97% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and very negative free cash flow) and limited valuation support (negative P/E, no dividend). Offsetting factors are a stronger balance sheet and a constructive earnings-call outlook featuring strong liquidity, sizable contracted commitments, and ambitious 2026 revenue guidance; technicals are mixed with near-term weakness but longer-term trend support.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet liquidity & lower leverage

Substantially reduced debt and a materially larger equity base, alongside pro forma cash near $3.9B, provide durable funding flexibility for multi‑year constellation builds. This lowers near‑term refinancing risk and supports meeting launch and production commitments while execution scales toward commercial service.

Strong top-line acceleration and healthy gross margin

A rapid move from minimal revenue to meaningful sales with a solid gross margin indicates initial product-market fit and improving unit economics. If sustained, this revenue traction provides the base to leverage fixed costs, support incremental margin expansion, and justify ongoing capital investments.

Commercial backlog, MNO partnerships and spectrum/IP assets

Large contracted commitments and broad operator relationships create a durable demand pipeline and distribution channel for satellite‑to‑phone services. Combined with extensive spectrum access and a deep IP portfolio, this strengthens competitive differentiation and the long‑term revenue runway if deployment milestones are met.

Negative Factors

Very negative free cash flow and ongoing cash burn

Persistent and large negative free cash flow highlights a multi‑year capital intensity profile; continued cash burn requires sustained access to external financing. This structural cash deficit elevates execution risk if capital markets tighten or if operational slippages delay revenue that would reduce the subsidy required per satellite.

Elevated and rising operating expenses

High and growing operating costs—driven by workforce, factory expansion and professional fees—create a large fixed cost base that must be amortized over future revenue. Until revenue scales predictably, rising OpEx pressures margins and increases sensitivity to missed milestones or delayed commercial adoption.

Capital structure moves and dilution risk

Frequent convertible issuances, conversions and equity raises materially alter capital structure and can dilute shareholders. Reliance on hybrid financing to fund capital needs reflects ongoing funding dependence and could limit financial flexibility or increase the cost of future equity, affecting long‑term shareholder value and decision freedom.

AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

AST SpaceMobile makes money primarily through partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) who pay for access to its satellite network to enhance their service offerings. The company enters into agreements with MNOs, allowing them to use its satellite infrastructure to provide broader and more reliable coverage to their customers. This model allows AST SpaceMobile to earn revenue through service fees or revenue-sharing agreements with these operators. Additionally, the company may explore direct service offerings and strategic partnerships to expand its revenue streams as its network becomes operational.

AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a key positive (debt reduced to ~$31.9M in 2025, equity expanded to ~$2.39B), but overall fundamentals remain high-risk due to very large net losses (~$342M in 2025) and sharply negative free cash flow (about -$1.14B in 2025) despite improving revenue and a solid gross margin (~53%).

Income Statement

Revenue accelerated sharply in 2025 ($70.9M vs. $4.4M in 2024), indicating improving commercial traction. Gross profit is positive with a solid 2025 gross margin (~53%), but profitability remains very weak: 2025 net loss was ~$342M and net margin stayed deeply negative (about -482%), reflecting a cost structure that is still far ahead of revenue. Overall, strong top-line momentum is outweighed by persistent, very large operating losses.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically, with total debt falling to ~$31.9M in 2025 from ~$173M in 2024, and debt levels are very small relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.01 in 2025). The equity base expanded materially (stockholders’ equity ~$2.39B in 2025 vs. ~$0.48B in 2024), supporting balance sheet stability. The key weakness is returns: losses continue to drive negative returns on equity (about -14% in 2025), implying shareholder capital is not yet generating profits.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a major concern: operating cash flow was negative in every year shown and was still -$71.5M in 2025. Free cash flow deteriorated sharply in 2025 to roughly -$1.14B (vs. -$300M in 2024), signaling heavy cash investment and/or elevated cash burn that increases financing risk. While operating cash outflow improved versus 2024, the scale of negative free cash flow in 2025 dominates the cash-flow picture.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	70.92M	4.42M	0.00	13.82M	12.40M
Gross Profit	37.89M	4.42M	0.00	7.11M	4.84M
EBITDA	-369.93M	-442.98M	-162.02M	-97.57M	-83.83M
Net Income	-341.94M	-300.08M	-87.56M	-31.64M	-30.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.01B	954.56M	360.89M	438.37M	443.94M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.34B	564.99M	85.62M	238.59M	321.79M
Total Debt	31.93M	173.00M	72.87M	12.77M	13.16M
Total Liabilities	2.62B	285.42M	147.33M	78.55M	91.96M
Stockholders Equity	2.39B	479.12M	98.99M	133.53M	100.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.14B	-300.27M	-267.75M	-213.75M	-134.89M
Operating Cash Flow	-71.52M	-126.14M	-148.94M	-156.46M	-80.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.54B	-174.13M	-118.81M	-31.35M	-54.79M
Financing Cash Flow	3.83B	779.97M	116.73M	102.34M	416.94M

AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 92.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 92.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.25, below the 50-day MA of 93.16, and above the 200-day MA of 63.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTS.

AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERIC	70 Outperform	$37.26B	13.00	―	2.51%	1.04%	―
GILT	67 Neutral	$1.24B	50.97	5.15%	―	29.67%	41.90%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NOK	59 Neutral	$43.62B	61.56	3.20%	2.26%	5.05%	115.92%
ASTS	54 Neutral	$34.05B	-74.43	-39.22%	―	641.24%	41.70%
VSAT	53 Neutral	$6.22B	-17.63	-7.27%	―	1.23%	-31.80%
SATS	49 Neutral	$33.77B	-2.32	-111.70%	―	-44.95%	-430.47%

AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events

AST SpaceMobile Strengthens Finances and Expands Satellite Constellation

AST SpaceMobile reported that 2025 marked its first year as a revenue‑generating business, delivering $70.9 million in full‑year revenue, mainly from mobile network operator partners and U.S. government contracts. The company also reported fourth‑quarter revenue of $54.3 million, higher operating expenses tied to ramping gateway deliveries and R&D, and cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $2.8 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.

Operationally, AST SpaceMobile advanced its satellite constellation by successfully unfolding the BlueBird 6 array in low Earth orbit and preparing BlueBird 7 for launch from Cape Canaveral in March 2026, with additional launches planned every one to two months toward a 45–60‑satellite fleet by end‑2026. It bolstered its commercial and government pipeline with over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments, a $175 million prepayment from stc Group, new and expanded partnerships with major global operators, key U.S. defense contracts, and a strengthened balance sheet supported by a $1.075 billion convertible notes issue and capital structure optimization in February 2026, reinforcing its position in the emerging direct‑to‑device satellite connectivity market.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Repurchases Convertible Notes, Reshapes Capital Structure

On February 20 and February 23, 2026, AST SpaceMobile repurchased about $46.5 million of its 4.25% convertible senior notes due 2032 and $250 million of its 2.375% convertible senior notes due 2032 in privately negotiated deals with certain noteholders. The company paid roughly $180.5 million in cash for the 4.25% notes and about $433.7 million for the 2.375% notes, including certain accrued interest adjustments.

The repurchases were funded using cash on hand and net proceeds from concurrent registered direct equity offerings that closed on the same dates, involving a total of 6,337,964 Class A common shares sold at $96.92 each. By exchanging a substantial portion of its convertible debt for equity financing, AST SpaceMobile has reduced its outstanding note obligations and altered its capital structure in a way that may lower future interest costs while increasing equity dilution for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Raises $1.075 Billion via Convertible Notes

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. disclosed that on February 17, 2026 it issued $1.0 billion of 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2036 in a private offering, followed by the initial purchasers exercising an option on February 19, 2026 to buy an additional $75 million of these notes. The company completed the sale of the additional option notes on February 20, 2026, bringing the total outstanding principal amount to $1.075 billion and creating potential issuance of up to 11,091,528 Class A shares upon conversion, which may dilute existing shareholders but strengthens the firm’s long-term funding base.

The notes and option notes were sold in transactions exempt from public registration under the Securities Act and resold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A, underscoring strong institutional appetite for AST SpaceMobile’s convertible debt. Any Class A common stock issued upon conversion is also expected to be exempt from registration, streamlining future equity issuance tied to these securities and reinforcing the company’s financing flexibility in the capital markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Completes Major Convertible Notes Financing

On February 17, 2026, AST SpaceMobile completed a $1.0 billion private offering of 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2036, issuing unsecured debt with a 2.25% coupon and an initial conversion price set at a 20% premium to its February 11, 2026 share price. The company granted an option for an additional $150 million of notes, structured customary conversion triggers, change-of-control protections and default provisions, and may issue up to roughly 11.9 million Class A shares on conversion if the option is fully exercised.

The financing, which generated approximately $983.7 million in net proceeds, is intended to strengthen AST SpaceMobile’s balance sheet and fund strategic initiatives, including accelerating global deployment of its spectrum, advancing AI-related monetization of its technology, expanding U.S. government space work, reducing higher-cost debt and investing to speed rollout of its SpaceMobile service and capabilities. In parallel, AST SpaceMobile priced registered direct offerings of 6.34 million Class A shares and launched negotiated repurchases of about $296.5 million of its existing 2032 convertible notes, moves that could lower interest expense, simplify its capital structure and affect trading dynamics in its stock and outstanding notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Announces New Notes and Equity Offerings

On February 11, 2026, AST SpaceMobile disclosed that it had launched a New Notes Offering and a Registered Direct Offering alongside a planned repurchase of portions of its 4.25% and 2.375% convertible notes, moves that underscore its ongoing need to raise substantial capital for satellite launches and operations. The company detailed significant funding requirements for building out a constellation of more than 90 Block 2 BB satellites, outlined its reliance on multiple launch agreements that heighten financial risk, and warned that failure to secure additional financing could force it to cancel launches and pay sizable termination fees.

AST SpaceMobile also highlighted execution and regulatory risks around its $550 million Ligado Transaction, through which it seeks long-term access to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada, noting that the deal’s consummation depends on regulatory approvals, financing conditions and ongoing litigation involving Inmarsat. While the company has already paid $420 million toward the Ligado arrangement and secured backstop and credit facilities, it cautioned that an adverse court ruling or failure to close the transaction would materially harm its business, financial condition and results, and that its broader acquisition and partnership strategy may not deliver expected benefits.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Sell with a $45.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.