Assertio Therapeutics Inc (ASRT)
NASDAQ:ASRT
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Assertio Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:ASRT)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(2.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/22/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—declining revenue, ongoing losses, and a 2025 shift to negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals are moderately supportive with the stock above key moving averages and positive MACD. The earnings outlook is constructive on FY2026 guidance and Rolvedon-driven profitability expansion, while the acquisition event adds meaningful deal-value support that partially offsets the fundamental and cash-flow risk.
Positive Factors
Rolvedon franchise potential
Rolvedon is positioned as the company’s core durable growth engine with long patent protection and mgmt estimates of six‑figure peak sales. This creates a multi-year revenue runway and high-margin base that can support profitability, reinvestment, and leverage of existing commercial infrastructure.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue decline
A persistent top‑line decline over multiple years weakens the company’s ability to absorb fixed costs and invest behind growth. Even with high margins, shrinking revenues have driven recurring losses, making durable profitability contingent on restoring sustained demand for a narrow product set.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rolvedon franchise potential
Rolvedon is positioned as the company’s core durable growth engine with long patent protection and mgmt estimates of six‑figure peak sales. This creates a multi-year revenue runway and high-margin base that can support profitability, reinvestment, and leverage of existing commercial infrastructure.
Read all positive factors
Assertio Therapeutics (ASRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$116.27M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)212.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-5.00%
EPS Growth-39.97%
CountryUS
Employees58
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.86
Shares Outstanding6,445,161
10 Day Avg. Volume336,723
30 Day Avg. Volume212,430
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.62
Price to Sales (P/S)0.49
P/FCF Ratio-2.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.51Price Target Upside13.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$103.70M
Assertio Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Assertio Holdings, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, provides medicines in the areas of neurology, hospital, and pain and inflammation. Its pharmaceutical products include INDOCIN, an oral solution and a suppository form for the treatment ...
How the Company Makes Money
Assertio makes money primarily by selling its marketed prescription pharmaceutical products in the U.S. Revenue is generated when these products are purchased through pharmaceutical distribution channels (e.g., wholesalers) and dispensed to patien...
Assertio Therapeutics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by each business segment, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting potential areas of risk or opportunity within the company's operations.
Breaks down revenue by each business segment, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting potential areas of risk or opportunity within the company's operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAssertio Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive long-term outlook centered on Robodon: integration is complete, FY2025 results beat guidance, margins and adjusted EBITDA improved year-over-year, and management provided 2026 guidance that anticipates profitability expansion. However, material near-term challenges remain — notably the large Q4 revenue decline and negative Q4 adjusted EBITDA driven by a timing-driven sell-in, a significant sequential cash reduction due to working capital, and ongoing erosion risk in legacy products (Indocin) from generic competition. Management frames many negatives as temporary (sell-in timing, working capital) and emphasizes durable improvements (commercial platform, cost reductions, Robodon secular demand). Balancing the substantial positive catalysts and guidance against the short-term execution and cash pressures yields an overall positive outlook conditional on Robodon demand and normalization of working capital.Positive Updates
Robodon Integration Completed and Positioned for Growth
Integration of Robodon onto Assertio's label and commercial platform completed in Q4 2025; transition included a deliberate pull-forward of two quarters of demand to ensure uninterrupted patient supply. Regular sales of newly labeled Robodon expected to begin in Q2 2026. Management cites underlying demand growth for Robodon of ~32% year-over-year in 2025 and views the product as long-term core asset (IP protection through 2039) with potential to exceed $100M–$130M peak annual U.S. sales.
Negative Updates
Sharp Q4 Revenue Decline Due to Sell-in Timing
Q4 2025 total product sales were $12.8M versus $29.6M in the prior-year quarter (-56.8%). Rovodon net sales in Q4 were $0.4M compared to $15.4M in the prior-year quarter (-97.4%) due to the timing of the earlier sell-in and label transition, resulting in severely depressed reported Q4 revenue.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Robodon Integration Completed and Positioned for Growth
Integration of Robodon onto Assertio's label and commercial platform completed in Q4 2025; transition included a deliberate pull-forward of two quarters of demand to ensure uninterrupted patient supply. Regular sales of newly labeled Robodon expected to begin in Q2 2026. Management cites underlying demand growth for Robodon of ~32% year-over-year in 2025 and views the product as long-term core asset (IP protection through 2039) with potential to exceed $100M–$130M peak annual U.S. sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided fiscal 2026 guidance of $110 million to $125 million in revenue and $28 million to $40 million in adjusted EBITDA, driven primarily by Robodon growth (FY2025 Rovodon sales $68.2M vs $60.1M in 2024; underlying demand grew ~32% YoY in 2025), with regular sales of the newly labeled Robodon expected to begin in Q2 2026 (FY2025 reported Rovodon included ~5 quarters of wholesaler shipments vs an expected 3 quarters in FY2026); FY2025 total product sales were $117.1M (above prior guidance) with full-year adjusted EBITDA $22.7M (vs $18.3M in 2024) and gross margin 70% (Q4 GM 75%); Q4 product sales were $12.8M (Q4 Rovodon $0.4M vs $15.4M prior), Q4 SG&A $13.1M (down from $21.4M), Q4 adjusted EBITDA -$4.1M (vs +$3.4M prior), and cash/short-term investments $63.4M at 12/31/25 (down from $93.4M at 9/30/25) — working capital impacts from the Rovodon sell‑in should normalize by April; management expects margin expansion from high‑margin Robodon and $3M–$5M of annualized SG&A savings, anticipates Indocin (FY2025 sales $18.9M) will decline with at least one additional generic in 2026, and sees Robodon’s longer‑term potential surpassing $100M (illustrative $100M–$130M+ range).Assertio Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 118.71M | 124.96M | 152.07M | 156.23M | 111.01M |
| Gross Profit | 83.33M | 85.73M | 125.05M | 137.49M | 95.18M |
| EBITDA | 12.78M | 5.15M | 53.17M | 90.17M | 38.78M |
| Net Income | -29.50M | -21.58M | -331.94M | 109.63M | -1.28M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 266.97M | 284.73M | 286.42M | 413.91M | 326.55M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 63.41M | 100.05M | 73.44M | 64.94M | 36.81M |
| Total Debt | 39.12M | 40.27M | 39.68M | 66.87M | 75.87M |
| Total Liabilities | 173.02M | 163.65M | 148.42M | 188.19M | 224.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 93.95M | 121.08M | 138.00M | 225.72M | 102.41M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -28.18M | 26.41M | 48.98M | 78.32M | 5.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -28.18M | 26.41M | 49.60M | 78.60M | 5.52M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.99M | -48.91M | 3.10M | -42.67M | -18.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -189.00K | -350.00K | -44.20M | -7.79M | 29.03M |
Assertio Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
18.01
Price Trends
14.42
Positive
12.66
Positive
12.27
Positive
Market Momentum
1.12
Positive
63.15
Neutral
0.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASRT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.01, above the 50-day MA of 14.42, and above the 200-day MA of 12.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASRT.
Assertio Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Assertio Therapeutics disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Assertio Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Assertio Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 Neutral | $60.72M | -20.99 | -10.54% | ― | 17.57% | 58.90% | |
55 Neutral | $116.27M | -1.97 | -29.39% | ― | -5.00% | -39.97% | |
55 Neutral | $45.56M | -3.67 | -19.05% | ― | 449.95% | 70.24% | |
54 Neutral | $34.39M | -5.64 | -15.64% | ― | -31.76% | -451.65% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
44 Neutral | $19.30M | -0.79 | -63.82% | ― | ― | ― | |
43 Neutral | $38.79M | -3.38 | -118.01% | ― | ― | 28.13% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ASRT
Assertio Therapeutics
18.04
8.73
93.77%
TLPH
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0.74
0.26
54.28%
RMTI
Rockwell Med
0.85
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-25.22%
SCYX
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1.00
0.03
2.88%
CPIX
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4.19
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COSM
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0.36
-0.05
-12.98%
Assertio Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Assertio Therapeutics Faces Garda Tender Offer After Window-Shop
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Assertio announced that Garda Therapeutics plans to launch a tender offer on April 29, 2026 to acquire all outstanding Assertio shares, following the expiration of a 20‑day “window‑shop” period. The move ...
Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Assertio to Be Acquired by Garda in Cash Deal
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Assertio agreed to be acquired by Garda Therapeutics via an all-cash tender offer of $18 per share, valuing the equity at about $125.1 million, plus a non-tradeable contingent value right tied to future milestones from the Sprix ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.