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Assertio Therapeutics Inc (ASRT)
NASDAQ:ASRT

Assertio Therapeutics (ASRT) AI Stock Analysis

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Assertio Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:ASRT)

49Neutral
The overall score reflects significant challenges in Assertio Therapeutics' financial performance, with declining revenues and negative profitability indicators. While technical analysis shows an oversold stock, it lacks upward momentum. Valuation concerns are underscored by a negative P/E ratio and absence of a dividend yield. Earnings call insights provide some strategic optimism, but existing operational challenges and uncertainties weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.
Positive Factors
Regulatory Advancements
Assertio plans to submit the data for incorporation into the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines, which can potentially accelerate Rolvedon’s sales growth.
Sales Growth
Rolvedon has helped replace Indocin’s revenue and has shown growth, indicating potential for future sales acceleration.
Negative Factors
Competition
A second indomethacin generic has been approved, potentially putting further pressure on Indocin.

Assertio Therapeutics (ASRT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Assertio Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAssertio Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of pharmaceutical products to treat pain and other central nervous system conditions. Its brands include Gralise, Zipsor, Lazanda, Cambia, NUCYNTA ER and NUCYNTA. The firm focuses on neurology, orphan and specialty medicines. The company was founded by John W. Shell on August 7, 1995 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, IL.
How the Company Makes MoneyAssertio Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sales of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model is centered around the commercialization of both branded and generic medications, which are distributed through various channels including healthcare providers, pharmacies, and wholesalers. Key revenue streams include product sales from their established drug portfolio targeting neurological and inflammatory conditions. Assertio also engages in strategic partnerships and licensing agreements to expand its market reach and optimize its product offerings. These collaborations may involve co-promotion, co-development, and distribution agreements that contribute to its earnings. Additionally, the company focuses on operational efficiency and cost management to enhance profitability.

Assertio Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Assertio Therapeutics faces significant profitability challenges with a declining revenue trend and negative operational margins, despite a high gross profit margin. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but declining equity, and cash flow metrics raise concerns about future cash generation capabilities. Overall, the financial health presents a mixed outlook with significant challenges in stabilizing revenue and improving profitability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement reveals a declining revenue trend with a significant drop from $152 million in 2023 to $124.9 million in 2024. The company shows negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational inefficiencies and challenges in achieving profitability. Despite a high gross profit margin of approximately 68%, the net profit margin remains negative due to high operational costs.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Assertio's balance sheet displays moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is approximately 42.5%, indicating a decent proportion of assets financed by equity. However, the declining stockholders' equity from $138 million in 2023 to $121 million in 2024 raises concerns about the company's declining net worth.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
The cash flow statement shows a decline in operating cash flow from $49.6 million in 2023 to $26.4 million in 2024, signaling weakening operational cash generation. Despite this, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive due to the negative net income, but the sustainability of this cash flow is uncertain as it relies on non-recurring items.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
124.96M152.07M156.23M111.01M106.28M
Gross Profit
85.73M125.05M137.49M95.18M86.40M
EBIT
-24.48M-243.54M57.81M9.42M-46.92M
EBITDA
-24.48M-222.45M72.53M38.78M-3.20M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-21.48M-331.94M109.63M-1.28M-28.14M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
100.05M73.44M64.94M36.81M20.79M
Total Assets
284.73M286.42M413.91M326.55M303.27M
Total Debt
38.81M40.91M66.87M73.49M84.10M
Net Debt
-11.78M-32.53M1.93M36.68M63.32M
Total Liabilities
163.65M148.42M188.19M224.13M247.76M
Stockholders Equity
121.08M138.00M225.72M102.41M55.51M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
26.41M48.98M78.32M5.47M-65.58M
Operating Cash Flow
26.41M49.60M78.60M5.52M-65.57M
Investing Cash Flow
-48.91M3.10M-42.67M-18.52M512.80M
Financing Cash Flow
-350.00K-44.20M-7.79M29.03M-468.55M

Assertio Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.72
Price Trends
50DMA
0.81
Negative
100DMA
0.89
Negative
200DMA
1.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
34.88
Neutral
STOCH
32.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASRT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.79, below the 50-day MA of 0.81, and below the 200-day MA of 1.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASRT.

Assertio Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Assertio Therapeutics disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Assertio Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Assertio Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
$1.74B23.717.55%8.94%5171.26%
61
Neutral
$1.02B-12.08%3.85%-339.15%
49
Neutral
$74.34M-16.66%-17.83%94.26%
49
Neutral
$6.87B0.03-54.93%2.50%24.65%-2.90%
43
Neutral
$2.70B-27.85%-10.19%
42
Neutral
$24.83M-218.51%-6.53%63.71%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ASRT
Assertio Therapeutics
0.72
-0.40
-35.71%
DRRX
Durect
0.86
-0.43
-33.33%
PCRX
Pacira Pharmaceuticals
22.87
-6.54
-22.24%
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
31.26
-1.72
-5.22%
EGRX
Eagle Pharmaceuticals
1.30
-4.75
-78.51%
XENE
Xenon
35.32
-8.64
-19.65%

Assertio Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.69% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights significant achievements, particularly in the growth of Rolvedon sales and strategic leadership appointments, which position the company for future growth. However, challenges such as the erosion of Indocin sales, increased legal expenses, and adjusted EBITDA falling below expectations indicate areas of concern. The strategic focus for 2025 aims to address these challenges and achieve transformation.
Highlights
Rolvedon Sales Achievement
Rolvedon sales exceeded $60 million, indicating strong growth and successful transition as the lead asset. This was complemented by positive results from the Rolvedon same-day dosing trial.
Financial Performance Highlights
Total product sales reached $120.8 million, at the high end of the guidance range. Full year adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million, and operating cash flows were $26.4 million, exceeding the high-end cash goal of $100 million.
Strategic Appointments and Leadership Strengthening
Assertio strengthened its leadership team with the appointment of Mary Pietryga as Chief Commercial Officer and Paul Schwichtenberg as Chief Transformation Officer.
Lowlights
Indocin Erosion and Challenges
Indocin sales were impacted by generic competition, resulting in a decline and a $4.2 million write-down for excess inventory. The market remains uncertain and difficult to predict.
Increased SG&A and Legal Expenses
SG&A expenses increased to $21.4 million in Q4, driven by litigation contingencies, which also affected adjusted operating expenses, increasing them by $5.4 million.
Adjusted EBITDA Below Expectations
Full year adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million, below the $20 million low-end guidance range, mainly due to inventory write-downs and higher litigation contingencies.
Company Guidance
During the Assertio Holdings Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, emphasizing their year of transformation. The guidance includes expected net sales ranging from $108 million to $123 million and adjusted EBITDA between $10 million and $19 million. The company highlighted a focus on strategic priorities, including simplifying structure and processes, focusing on growth assets like Rolvedon and Sympazan, and reducing legal exposure to lower operating expenses. Additionally, Assertio aims to deploy capital strategically for long-term value generation. The call also mentioned a modest growth expectation for Rolvedon, with double-digit growth for Sympazan anticipated, despite the continued decline of Indocin sales. The company remains engaged in strategic discussions for potential acquisitions, though specific details were not disclosed.

Assertio Therapeutics Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Assertio Therapeutics Announces Leadership Changes and Board Addition
Positive
Dec 17, 2024

Assertio Holdings announced key leadership changes, appointing Paul Schwichtenberg as Chief Transformation Officer and Mary Pietryga as Chief Commercial Officer, effective December 2024. These appointments, along with Mark Reisenauer’s addition to the Board, are aimed at driving new revenue strategies and market growth, positioning Assertio for continued success.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.