Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Risk Analysis

Over the past several years we have entered into license and collaboration agreements with Takeda, Janssen, Amgen, Horizon, GSK and Visirna. Our business strategy includes securing additional collaborations with other pharmaceutical and biotech companies to support the development of our RNAi therapeutics and other drug candidates. We do not possess all of the financial and development resources necessary to develop and commercialize all of the products that may result from our technologies. Unless we expand our own product development capacity and enhance our own internal marketing capability, we may need to make arrangements with other strategic partners to develop and commercialize any drug candidates that may be approved. We may not be able to attract such partners, and even if we are able to enter into such partnerships, the terms may be less favorable than anticipated. Further, entering into partnership agreements may limit our commercialization options and/or require us to share revenues and profits with our partners. If we do not find appropriate partners, or if our existing arrangements or future agreements are not successful, our ability to develop and commercialize products could be adversely affected. Even if we are able to find collaborative partners, the overall success of the development and commercialization of product candidates in those programs will depend largely on the efforts of other parties and will be beyond our control, particularly as partnered programs progress and our licensees may elect to assume greater control over these programs. In addition, in the event we pursue our commercialization strategy through collaboration or licenses to third parties, there are a variety of technical, business and legal risks, including: - We may not be able to control the amount and timing of resources that our collaborators may be willing or able to devote to the development or commercialization of our drug candidates or to their marketing and distribution; and - Disputes may arise between us and our collaborators that result in the delay or termination of the research, development or commercialization of our drug candidates or that result in costly litigation or arbitration that diverts our management's resources. The occurrence of any of the above events or other related events could impair our ability to generate revenues and harm our business and financial condition.

We are subject to U.S. federal, state, and local taxes in the United States and other countries. Significant judgment is required in evaluating our tax positions. During the ordinary course of business, there are many activities and transactions for which the ultimate tax determination is uncertain. In addition, our tax obligations and effective tax rates could be adversely affected by changes in the relevant tax, accounting and other laws, regulations, principles and interpretations, including those relating to income tax nexus, by recognizing tax losses or lower than anticipated earnings in jurisdictions where we have lower statutory rates and higher than anticipated earnings in jurisdictions where we have higher statutory rates, by changes in foreign currency exchange rates, or by changes in the valuation of our deferred tax assets and liabilities. For instance, beginning in 2022, the 2017 Tax Act eliminated the option of expensing all research and development expenditures in the current year, instead requiring amortization over five years for expenditures in the U.S. and over fifteen years for foreign-based expenditures. There is no assurance that the requirement will be deferred, repealed, or otherwise modified. This change in law increased our tax liability for the fiscal year. We continue to monitor new tax legislation or other developments since significant changes in tax legislation, or in the interpretation of existing legislation, could materially and adversely affect our financial condition and operating results. Additionally, we may be audited in various jurisdictions, and such jurisdictions may assess additional taxes, sales taxes and value-added taxes against us. Although we believe our tax estimates are reasonable, the final determination of any tax audits or litigation could be materially different from our historical tax provisions and accruals, which could have a material adverse effect on our operating results or cash flows in the period for which a determination is made.

Our research, development and manufacturing activities involve the use of potentially harmful biological materials as well as materials, chemicals and various radioactive compounds that could be hazardous to human health and safety or the environment. We store most of these materials and various wastes resulting from their use at our facilities in Madison, Wisconsin, Verona, Wisconsin, and San Diego, California pending ultimate use and disposal. We cannot completely eliminate the risk of contamination, which could cause interruption to our research and development and manufacturing efforts, injury to our employees and others, environmental damage, and liabilities under federal, state and local law. In such an event, we may be held liable for any resulting damages, and any liability could exceed our resources. Although we carry insurance in amounts and types that we consider commercially reasonable, we do not have insurance coverage for losses relating to an interruption of our research, development or manufacturing efforts caused by contamination, and the coverage or coverage limits of our insurance policies may not be adequate. If our losses exceed our insurance coverage, our financial condition would be affected.

Our future success depends to a significant extent on the continued services of our key employees, including our senior scientific, technical and managerial personnel. We do not maintain key person life insurance for any of our executives and we do not maintain employment agreements with many senior employees. Competition for qualified employees in the pharmaceutical industry is high, and our ability to execute our strategy will depend in part on our ability to continue to attract and retain qualified scientists, management and other employees. This will depend in part on our ability to create and maintain a desirable workplace culture, which may be impacted by employee preferences for remote working. In addition, the market for qualified employees in the pharmaceutical industry is experiencing labor shortages and inflationary pressures are causing salaries and wages to increase, all of which exacerbates these competitive dynamics. If we are unable to find, hire and retain qualified individuals, we will have difficulty implementing our business plan in a timely manner, or at all.

Throughout the world and particularly in the United States, the healthcare system is under significant financial pressure to reduce costs. The price of pharmaceuticals has been a topic of considerable public discussion that could lead to price controls or other price-limiting strategies by payors that have the effect of lowering payment and reimbursement rates for drugs or otherwise making the commercialization of pharmaceuticals less profitable. Many federal and state legislatures have considered, and adopted, healthcare policies intended to curb rising healthcare costs, such as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. These cost-containment measures may include, among other measures: requirements for pharmaceutical companies to negotiate prescription drug prices with government healthcare programs; controls on government-funded reimbursement for drugs; new or increased requirements to pay prescription drug rebates to government healthcare programs, including if drug prices increase at a higher rate than inflation; controls on healthcare providers; challenges to or limits on the pricing of drugs, including pricing controls or limits or prohibitions on reimbursement for specific products through other means; requirements to try less expensive products or generics before a more expensive branded product; and public funding for cost effectiveness research, which may be used by government and private third-party payors to make coverage and payment decisions. Political, economic and regulatory developments may further complicate developments in healthcare systems and pharmaceutical drug pricing. These developments could, for example, impact our potential licensing agreements as commercial and collaborative partners may also consider the impact of these pressures on their licensing strategies. Any new laws or regulations that have the effect of imposing additional costs or regulatory burden on pharmaceutical manufacturers, or otherwise negatively affect the industry, could adversely affect our ability to successfully commercialize our product candidates. The implementation of any price controls, caps on prescription drugs or price transparency requirements could adversely affect our business, operating results and financial condition.

Many of our competitors have greater financial resources and may have more experience in research and development, manufacturing, managing clinical trials and/or regulatory compliance than we do. Our competitors may compete with us for lead clinical trial investigators, clinical trial site locations and patient enrollment. These competitors may also compete with us on recruiting scientific and management personnel. Because our products are in various stages of preclinical and clinical development, along with many of the competing products, and given unpredictability inherent in drug development, it is difficult to predict which third parties may provide the most competition, and on what specific basis that competition may be based.

Our business is sensitive to global economic conditions, which can be adversely affected by epidemics and other public health crises (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), political and military conflict, trade and other international disputes, significant natural disasters (including as a result of climate change) or other events that disrupt macroeconomic conditions. Adverse macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, slower growth or recession, new or increased tariffs and other barriers to trade, changes to fiscal and monetary policy or government budget dynamics (particularly in the pharmaceutical and biotech areas), tighter credit, higher interest rates, volatility in financial markets, high unemployment, labor availability constraints, currency fluctuations and other challenges in the global economy have in the past adversely affected, and may in the future adversely affect, us and our business partners and suppliers. For example, trade policies and geopolitical disputes (including as a result of China-Taiwan relations) and other international conflicts can result in tariffs, sanctions and other measures that restrict international trade, and can materially adversely affect our business, particularly if these measures occur in regions where we source our components or raw materials. For example, tensions between the United States and China have led to a series of tariffs being imposed by the United States on imports from China mainland, as well as other business restrictions. Tariffs increase the costs of the components and raw materials we source. Countries may also adopt other measures, such as controls on imports or exports of goods, technology or data, that could adversely impact the Company's operations and supply chain. These geopolitical risks could also adversely affect Visirna. Further, military conflicts or wars (such as the ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East) can cause exacerbated volatility and disruptions to various aspects of the global economy. The uncertain nature, magnitude, and duration of hostilities stemming from such conflicts, including the potential effects of sanctions and counter-sanctions, or retaliatory cyber-attacks on the world economy and markets, have contributed to increased market volatility and uncertainty, which could have an adverse impact on macroeconomic factors that affect our business and operations, such as worldwide supply chain issues. Additionally, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted our business decisions with respect to potential clinical trial sites in Europe. For example, a number of our clinical trial sites we had previously planned to use in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus were shut down and we had to seek alternatives in other geographies. We cannot be certain of the overall impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on our ability to conduct and complete our clinical trials as planned, and any interruptions of our clinical trials can result in significant delays or termination of the research, development or commercialization of our drug candidates, which could impair our ability to generate revenues and harm our business and financial condition. Moreover, the conflict between Israel and Palestine could impact future business decisions to locate potential clinical trials in Israel. It is not possible to predict the short and long-term implications of military conflicts or wars or geopolitical tensions which could include further sanctions, uncertainty about economic and political stability, increases in inflation rate and energy prices, cyber-attacks, supply chain challenges and adverse effects on currency exchange rates and financial markets. Additionally, our operations and facilities, as well as operations of our suppliers and manufacturers, may be located in areas that are prone to earthquakes, wildfires and other natural disasters. Such operations and facilities are also subject to the risk of interruption by drought, power shortages, nuclear power plant accidents and other industrial accidents, terrorist attacks and other hostile acts, ransomware and other cybersecurity attacks, labor disputes, public health crises, and other events beyond the Company's control. Global climate change is resulting in certain types of natural disasters occurring more frequently or with more intense effects. Such events can create delays or interruptions to the Company's development efforts and inefficiencies in the Company's supply and manufacturing chain. Significant delays in our development efforts could materially impact our ability to obtain regulatory approval and to commercialize our products. Any insurance we maintain against damage to our property and the disruption of our business due to disaster may not be sufficient to cover all of our potential losses and may not continue to be available to us on acceptable terms, or at all. Further, because the Company relies on single or limited sources for the supply and manufacture of many critical components, a business interruption affecting such sources would exacerbate any negative consequences to the Company. Any future public health crises, may affect our operations and those of third parties on which we rely, including our business partners and suppliers. We may in the future experience: - delays in receiving authorization from regulatory authorities to initiate any planned clinical trials, inspections, reviews and approvals of products;- delays or difficulties enrolling patients in our clinical trials;- delays in or disruptions to the conduct of preclinical programs and clinical trials;- constraints on the movement of products and supplies through the supply chain, which can disrupt our ability to conduct clinical trials and develop our products;- price increases in raw materials and capital equipment, as well as increasing price competition in our markets;- adverse impacts on our workforce and/or key employees; and - increased risk that counterparties to our contractual arrangements will become insolvent or otherwise unable to fulfill their contractual obligations.