Alliance Resource (ARLP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.60B
• Dividend Yield: 11.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 429.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -9.45%
• EPS Growth: -46.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,653
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 128,658,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 346,694
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 429,291
• PEG Ratio: -0.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.36
• P/FCF Ratio: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.82
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.93
• 1Y Price Target: $33.00
• Price Target Upside: 35.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.23B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(30.99% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (healthy leverage, strong historical profitability, and positive free cash flow). Valuation adds support through a low P/E and high yield, while technicals are moderately constructive. The main offsets are a post-peak earnings/revenue downtrend and earnings-call risks around lower realized pricing, Appalachia/Metiqui uncertainty, and higher near-term costs and capex.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage and strong balance sheet

Material deleveraging and a modest absolute debt load give Alliance durable financial flexibility. Lower leverage reduces refinancing and bankruptcy risk across cycles, enabling sustained capex funding, distributions and opportunistic M&A while absorbing coal-price volatility.

Consistent cash generation and positive free cash flow

Multi-year operating cash flow and recurring positive free cash flow underpin the partnership’s ability to fund maintenance and growth capex, cover distributions, and pay down debt. This cash-generation base supports resilience through commodity downturns despite year-to-year volatility.

High contracted 2026 volumes and royalty growth

Extensive forward contracting materially raises near- to medium-term revenue visibility, reducing spot-price exposure. Concurrent royalty volume and revenue growth and targeted mineral acquisitions diversify cash flow away from pure coal production, improving structural resilience.

Negative Factors

Downward revenue and earnings trend

A multi-year decline in revenues and earnings signals exposure to structural demand or pricing pressure that can compress margins and returns. If prolonged, the trend erodes distributable cash flow, limits reinvestment capacity, and raises cyclicality risk for a commodities business.

Appalachia customer and operational concentration risk (Metiqui)

Reliance on a single large buyer and localized operational issues create persistent volume and revenue vulnerability in Appalachia. Continued outages or loss of the customer can force impairments, higher unit costs, and reduced regional profitability over multiple reporting periods.

Higher planned capex and near-term unit-cost headwinds

Sizable near-term capex coupled with periodic longwall moves raises the company’s cash funding needs and pressure on per-ton margins. Sustained higher unit costs or prolonged elevated capex could strain free cash flow and constrain flexibility despite current balance-sheet strength.

Alliance Resource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., a diversified natural resource company, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties. It produces a range of thermal and metallurgical coal with sulfur and heat contents. The company operates seven underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. In addition, it leases land and operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana; and buys and resells coal, as well as owns mineral and royalty interests in approximately 1.5 million gross acres of oil and gas producing regions primarily in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. Further, the company offers various mining technology products and services, including data network, communication and tracking systems, mining proximity detection systems, industrial collision avoidance systems, and data and analytics software. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 547.1 million tons of proven and probable coal mineral reserves, as well as 1.17 billion tons of measured, indicated, and inferred coal mineral resources in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

ARLP primarily makes money from selling coal produced from its mining operations. Revenue is generated under multi-year coal supply contracts and spot sales to customers such as electric utilities and industrial users; pricing and volumes depend on contracted terms, market prices, and customer demand. A second revenue stream comes from its oil and gas mineral interests, where ARLP earns royalty income (and related lease/bonus payments when applicable) from third-party operators that drill and produce hydrocarbons on acreage in which ARLP owns mineral rights; these revenues are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operator activity. The company’s earnings are affected by factors including coal market conditions (power generation fuel mix, natural gas prices, weather-driven electricity demand), regulatory and environmental compliance costs, mine productivity and safety, transportation/logistics costs, and the level of drilling and production activity on its mineral acreage.

Alliance Resource Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show solid profitability and cash generation with improved leverage versus 2020 (low debt-to-equity and strong ROE history). Offsetting this strength, revenue and earnings have been declining from the 2022–2023 peak, and there is noted 2025 cash-flow data inconsistency, increasing cyclicality/volatility risk.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid versus most commodity peers, with strong margins in 2022–2024 (2024 net margin ~14.7% and EBITDA margin ~28.7%). However, results have clearly cooled from the 2022–2023 peak (net income down from ~$630M in 2023 to ~$361M in 2024 and ~$311M in 2025), alongside two straight years of revenue decline (2024: ~-4.6%, 2025: ~-2.4%). The earlier recovery from 2020 losses to strong profits is a key positive, but the current trajectory suggests normalization and higher earnings volatility risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled and has improved materially versus 2020, with debt-to-equity down from ~0.57 (2020) to ~0.19–0.27 in 2022–2024 and debt broadly stable (~$487M in 2024) against a much larger equity base (~$1.83B). Returns on equity were very strong in 2022–2023 (mid-30% range) and still healthy in 2024 (~19.7%), reflecting strong profitability and efficient capital use. The main watch-out is that equity growth has flattened recently while earnings are trending down, which could pressure returns if the downcycle extends.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been consistently positive, with operating cash flow around ~$802M–$831M in 2022–2024 and free cash flow positive each year. Cash flow has generally supported earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.47–0.71 in 2021–2024), though 2024’s conversion is the weakest in the period shown. A key concern is data quality/consistency in 2025 where operating and free cash flow appear extremely large relative to revenue, so that year’s cash-flow signal is less reliable; excluding that anomaly, underlying cash flow strength is good but somewhat variable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.19B	2.45B	2.57B	2.42B	1.57B
Gross Profit	468.42M	507.48M	751.49M	741.20M	289.36M
EBITDA	675.19M	702.17M	948.52M	956.14M	483.47M
Net Income	311.16M	360.86M	630.12M	586.20M	182.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.85B	2.92B	2.79B	2.73B	2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.21M	136.96M	59.81M	296.02M	122.40M
Total Debt	479.96M	486.80M	350.82M	434.31M	450.66M
Total Liabilities	993.57M	1.06B	929.83M	1.02B	933.34M
Stockholders Equity	1.84B	1.83B	1.83B	1.61B	1.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	387.86B	374.39M	362.08M	515.96M	272.20M
Operating Cash Flow	651.14B	803.13M	830.64M	802.35M	426.14M
Investing Cash Flow	-331.25B	-440.66M	-559.73M	-403.34M	-143.63M
Financing Cash Flow	-385.73B	-285.32M	-507.12M	-225.39M	-215.69M

Alliance Resource Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARLP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.15, below the 50-day MA of 25.48, and above the 200-day MA of 24.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARLP.

Alliance Resource Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NRP	79 Outperform	$1.63B	10.38	22.94%	4.05%	-14.79%	-17.10%
ARLP	77 Outperform	$3.60B	9.02	17.15%	11.05%	-9.45%	-46.37%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BTU	62 Neutral	$4.54B	-68.38	-1.47%	0.96%	-7.21%	-106.39%
HCC	60 Neutral	$4.65B	81.30	2.71%	0.36%	-23.25%	-90.78%
AMR	56 Neutral	$2.48B	-42.11	-3.88%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%
METC	49 Neutral	$884.42M	-18.74	-12.01%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%

Alliance Resource Corporate Events

Alliance Resource Expands Coal Reserves in Related-Party Deal

On January 29, 2026, Alliance Resource Properties, LLC completed the purchase of coal reserves and associated surface rights in Ohio County, West Virginia and Washington County, Pennsylvania from The Joseph W. Craft III Foundation and The Kathleen S. Craft Foundation for a total of $15.5 million, paying the KSC Foundation in full at closing and structuring the JWC Foundation’s consideration as a partial upfront payment with the remaining balance to be paid in equal annual installments through January 1, 2032 at 5% interest, with an option for prepayment. The transaction, which closed on January 29, 2026 and expands Alliance’s coal reserve holdings, constitutes a related-party deal due to the significant ownership and control roles of Joseph W. Craft III and Kathleen Craft Mowry in Alliance, and the terms of the JWC Foundation agreement were unanimously approved by the Board’s Conflicts Committee of independent directors to address governance and conflict-of-interest considerations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARLP) stock is a Buy with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Resource stock, see the ARLP Stock Forecast page.