APi Group (APG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.02B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.32
• Revenue Growth: 1.30%
• EPS Growth: -36.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.94
• Shares Outstanding: 276,220,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,135,448
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,916,695
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.47
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 9.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $45.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

APi Group's overall stock score reflects strong operational cash flow and improving leverage, but is moderated by challenges in profitability and valuation concerns. Positive earnings guidance and strategic corporate events provide an optimistic outlook, but short-term technical indicators and recent profitability issues warrant cautious optimism.

Positive Factors

Growth Prospects

Shares of APG are expected to set up well for 2025 as organic growth returns to midsingle-digit territory with higher profitability.

Market Position

APi Group (APG) is the #1 provider of Fire Protection services in the United States among a broader range of Life Safety and Specialty Contracting services.

Project Pipeline

The backlog heading into 2025 is much stronger than it was heading into 2024.

Valuation

Peer valuations suggest opportunity for multiple expansion, with potential for a mid-teens EV/EBITDA multiple.

Negative Factors

Federal Project Exposure

There is no material exposure to large projects funded by the federal government, reducing potential risks.

Project Delays

All three large project delays in the second half of 2024 have moved forward, indicating progress and reducing investor concerns.

APi Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

APi Group Corporation provides safety, specialty, and industrial services in North America, Europe, Australia, and the Asian-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Safety Services, Specialty Services, and Industrial Services. The Safety Services segment offers safety solutions focusing on end-to-end integrated occupancy systems, such as fire protection solutions; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning solutions; and entry systems, which include the design, installation, inspection, monitoring, and service of these integrated systems. The Specialty Services segment provides infrastructure and specialized industrial plant services, including maintenance and repair of underground electric, gas, water, sewer, and telecommunications infrastructure. This segment also offers engineering and design, fabrication, installation, and retrofitting and upgrading services. The Industrial Services segment provides various services and solutions comprising pipeline infrastructure, access and road construction, supporting facilities, and integrity management and maintenance to the energy industry focused on transmission and distribution. It serves customers in the public and private sectors, including commercial, industrial, fulfillment centers, distribution, manufacturing, education, healthcare, telecom, transmission, utilities, high tech, entertainment, retail, financial services, and governmental markets. The company was formerly known as J2 Acquisition Limited and changed its name to APi Group Corporation in October 2019. APi Group Corporation was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in New Brighton, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

APi Group makes money through a diversified revenue model centered around its extensive portfolio of services. The company generates income by providing specialized services that include fire protection, life safety, and infrastructure maintenance. These services are offered under long-term contracts and project-based agreements, ensuring a steady stream of revenue. Key revenue streams include installation and maintenance of fire protection systems, industrial specialty services, and safety solutions. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships bolster APi Group's market position, allowing it to expand its service offerings and geographic reach, thus contributing significantly to its earnings.

APi Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

APi Group demonstrates significant revenue growth and operational improvements, yet faces profitability challenges as reflected in the net income losses. Strong cash flow generation and improved financial leverage highlight operational resilience, but strategic measures are needed to enhance net profitability and shareholder value.

Income Statement

APi Group shows a strong revenue growth trend with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue over the past few years. However, the net profit margin is concerning due to the negative net income in the most recent period, despite a positive trajectory in EBIT and EBITDA margins. This indicates operational efficiency improvements but highlights underlying profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio over time, suggesting improved leverage management. However, the return on equity (ROE) is impacted by recent net losses, affecting overall shareholder returns. The company's equity ratio remains stable, indicating a balanced asset financing structure.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals strong operational cash generation, with substantial growth in free cash flow. The company efficiently converts operating profits into cash, as evidenced by a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio. This positions APi Group well for future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.02B	6.93B	6.56B	3.94B	3.59B
	Gross Profit
2.18B	1.94B	1.71B	939.00M	756.00M
	EBIT
484.00M	359.00M	162.00M	136.00M	31.00M
	EBITDA
484.00M	680.00M	532.00M	338.00M	131.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
250.00M	153.00M	73.00M	47.00M	-153.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
499.00M	479.00M	605.00M	1.19B	515.00M
	Total Assets
8.15B	7.59B	8.09B	5.16B	4.07B
	Total Debt
4.00M	2.57B	3.03B	1.87B	1.54B
	Net Debt
-495.00M	2.10B	2.42B	685.00M	1.03B
	Total Liabilities
5.20B	4.72B	5.96B	2.84B	2.51B
	Stockholders Equity
2.95B	2.87B	2.13B	2.32B	1.56B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
536.00M	428.00M	191.00M	127.00M	458.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
620.00M	514.00M	270.00M	182.00M	496.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-829.00M	-115.00M	-2.90B	-121.00M	-340.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
245.00M	-532.00M	1.76B	917.00M	99.00M

APi Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.76
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.80, below the 50-day MA of 37.74, and below the 200-day MA of 36.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APG.

APi Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACM	80 Outperform	$12.28B	26.33	26.35%	0.99%	8.89%	669.67%
EME	77 Outperform	$16.81B	17.18	37.25%	0.27%	15.76%	61.64%
FIX	71 Outperform	$11.46B	22.07	35.03%	0.37%	34.97%	62.08%
APG	67 Neutral	$10.02B	―	8.59%	―	1.30%	-36.24%
J	62 Neutral	$14.81B	24.90	10.92%	0.98%	-13.76%	-13.39%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$8.07B	13.60	3.76%	3.13%	3.60%	-14.67%
DY	61 Neutral	$4.46B	19.24	20.35%	―	12.61%	7.43%

APi Group Corporate Events

APi Group Appoints David Jackola as CFO

APi Group Corporation announced the appointment of David Jackola as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 28, 2025. Jackola, who has been with the company since October 2021, previously served as Interim CFO and has extensive experience in global finance. His appointment is expected to support APi’s strategic objectives and enhance its leadership as the company aims to return to traditional levels of organic growth in 2025 and beyond.

APi Group’s Successful Loan Refinancing Boosts Financial Outlook

On February 14, 2025, APi Group DE, Inc., a subsidiary of APi Group Corporation, successfully refinanced its existing incremental term loans through an amendment to its credit agreement, involving approximately $2,157 million with a maturity date of January 3, 2029. This refinancing, which reduces the applicable margin and saves the company approximately $5 million annually, maintains the existing interest rate swaps. Additionally, APi Group announced its 2024 financial performance and 2025 guidance, with expectations of net revenues between $7,300 to $7,500 million and adjusted EBITDA between $970 to $1,020 million, reflecting a 13.4% adjusted EBITDA margin. The company also noted its strong balance sheet and plans for growth, indicating continued momentum in service revenues and organic growth in project revenues.