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Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR)
NYSE:AOMR
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Angel Oak Mortgage
(NYSE:AOMR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
â–²(13.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is primarily held back by weak and volatile cash flow despite improved profitability and leverage. Valuation is a key support (low P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals are neutral and the earnings call was moderately positive on growth, efficiency, and liquidity but flagged meaningful market and earnings-quality headwinds.
Positive Factors
Revenue & NII Growth
Sizable year-over-year growth in interest income and NII reflects durable ability to earn spread on originated and purchased mortgage assets. That recurring spread income supports margin sustainability and reduces sole reliance on gain-on-sale timing, strengthening earnings resilience over the medium term.
Securitization & Execution
Repeatable securitization execution demonstrates access to investor funding and capital recycling, which lowers funding dependency and enables scale without long-term balance sheet hold. Successful HELOC and RMBS deals diversify funding channels and support structural fee and spread economics.
Improved Leverage & Liquidity
Meaningful improvement in explicit recourse leverage and sizable undrawn warehouse capacity provide financial flexibility. Strong liquidity buffers and disciplined recourse leverage reduce refinancing risk and permit continued origination and securitization activity through near-term market cycles.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Large, recurring negative operating and free cash flows show earnings do not consistently convert to cash, increasing reliance on short-term financing and securitization markets. This structural cash volatility heightens funding and liquidity risk if market access tightens or spreads widen.
Earnings Quality / Unrealized Gains
A large gap between GAAP net income and distributable earnings driven by unrealized valuation swings signals earnings volatility and weaker cash-backed distributable profits. Reliance on mark-to-market gains limits predictability of dividends and obscures true recurring cash generation for investors.
Prepayment & Competitive Pressure
Rising prepayment risk can compress expected securitization IRRs and reduce loan yield duration, while growing non‑QM competition pressures origination margins. Together these structural trends can erode long-term yield on assets and make high-quality, profitable originations harder to maintain.
Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$209.28M
Dividend Yield14.83%
Average Volume (3M)84.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth65.86%
EPS Growth-74.61%
CountryUS
Employees300
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding24,914,646
10 Day Avg. Volume66,833
30 Day Avg. Volume84,588
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.54
P/FCF Ratio10.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.73
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$46.81M
Angel Oak Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAngel Oak Mortgage, Inc., a real estate finance company, focuses on acquiring and investing in first lien non- qualified mortgage loans and other mortgage-related assets in the United States mortgage market. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAngel Oak Mortgage generates revenue primarily through the origination and servicing of mortgage loans. The company earns income from interest on loans issued, as well as from origination fees charged to borrowers at the time of loan closing. Additionally, AOMR benefits from servicing fees collected on loans it manages over time. The company may also engage in the sale of loans to investors in the secondary mortgage market, realizing revenue from the premium earned on these transactions. Strategic partnerships with real estate agents, financial institutions, and technology providers further enhance its market reach and revenue potential.
Angel Oak Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial trajectory highlighted by strong interest income and GAAP net income growth, repeated expense reductions, active securitization execution, attractive loan purchase economics, and solid credit metrics. The main concerns were the gap between GAAP and distributable earnings driven by unrealized valuation adjustments, rising prepayment speeds, intermittent securitization spread volatility, and increasing competition in the non‑QM origination market. Overall, the positives around earnings growth, funding execution, and portfolio credit performance outweigh the manageable headwinds discussed.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Interest Income and Net Interest Income Growth
Full-year interest income increased 30% to $143.7M and net interest income increased 11% to $41.1M versus 2024; Q4 interest income was $39.0M (up 22% YoY) and Q4 net interest income was $10.9M (up 10% YoY).
Material GAAP Net Income Improvement
GAAP net income for the year was $44.0M, or $1.80 per diluted share, representing 53% growth versus $28.8M (or $1.17) in 2024; Q4 GAAP net income was $11.3M versus a prior-year Q4 net loss.
Expense Reduction and Operating Efficiency
Full-year operating expenses were $16.4M, a 15.5% decrease versus 2024; excluding non-cash stock comp and securitization costs, operating expenses fell ~15.4% to $11.5M, and Q4 operating expenses were $5.2M (or $3.0M excluding non-cash items).
Active and Successful Securitization Execution
Completed four securitizations in 2025 securitizing $704.0M UPB, called two legacy 2019 deals, completed the company's first HELOC securitization (AOMT 2025-HB2), and contributed $274.3M to AOMT 2025-10 in Q4.
Strong Loan Purchase Activity with Attractive Yields
Purchased $861.8M of loans in 2025 with a weighted average coupon of 7.79%, weighted average CLTV of 65.4% and a weighted average credit score of 756; whole loan portfolio WA coupon was 7.38%, HELOCs/closed-end seconds 9.75%.
Credit Performance and Portfolio Resilience
Total portfolio 90+ days delinquency was 2.18% at quarter-end, down 2 bps QoQ and down 25 bps YoY; management emphasized improved credit quality, conservative LTVs and outperformance vs. broader market.
Capital & Liquidity Flexibility
Ended quarter with >$41.0M cash, undrawn loan financing capacity of ~ $1.0B, a recourse debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x, new warehouse credit facility and completed second issuance of senior unsecured notes quickly deployed into accretive assets.
Shareholder Returns
Declared a $0.32 per share common dividend payable 02/27/2026 (record date 02/20/2026).
Negative Updates
Distributable Earnings vs GAAP Discrepancy from Unrealized Gains
Full-year distributable earnings were $14.6M versus GAAP net income of $44.0M; difference driven primarily by removal of $28.6M of unrealized net gains on securitized loan portfolio. Q4 distributable earnings were $7.3M versus GAAP Q4 net income of $11.3M after removing $8.4M of unrealized gains and adding $4.0M of unrealized losses.
Rising Prepayment Speeds
Three-month prepayment speeds for the RMBS securitized loan portfolio increased to 11.2% from 9.4% QoQ; management noted prepayments are expected to rise as rates decline and modeled historical average prepayment speeds of 20%–30% which could pressure returns if realized.
Market Volatility and Securitization Spread Widening
Management noted pockets of market volatility in early 2026 with securitization spreads widening after printing deals around ~105–110 bps; such spread widening could compress IRRs and affect pricing dynamics.
Competitive Pressure in Non‑QM Origination
Increased entrant activity making the non‑QM market more competitive and driving pressure on pricing; management emphasized focus on quality over scale to avoid IRR compression.
Small QoQ Decline in Economic Book Value
GAAP book value per share rose 1.3% QoQ to $10.74, but economic book value (which fair values non‑recourse securitization obligations) fell 0.2% QoQ to $12.70, reflecting normalization in legacy valuations.
Isolated Unrealized Losses
Q4 included ~$4.0M of unrealized losses from residential loans and hedge portfolios which offset some unrealized gains in securitized assets.
Company Guidance
Management guided that they expect net interest income to continue growing from 2025 levels (full-year interest income $143.7M, NII $41.1M, +30% and +11% YoY) while maintaining similar operating expense levels (FY operating expenses $16.4M, down ~15.5% YoY; Q4 operating expenses $5.2M, ex non-cash/securitization $3.0M), prudently managing recourse leverage (recourse debt-to-equity ~1.4x) and liquidity (undrawn loan financing capacity ≈ $1.0B) and sustaining disciplined securitization activity (targeting ~4 securitizations/year; $704M securitized in 2025, contributed $274.3M in Q4; participated in a $281.4M HELOC deal contributing $58.6M and expects roughly two HELOC participations/year), while noting book value is modestly higher quarter-to-date from $10.74 GAAP BV/share (economic BV $12.70) and reaffirming capital recycling and purchase capacity (2025 purchases $861.8M at a 7.79% weighted average coupon, 65.4% WACLT, avg FICO 756) as they model prepayment speeds long-term at 20–30% despite current 3‑month speeds of 11.2% and declared a $0.32/share dividend.Angel Oak Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement shows a strong 2025 profitability rebound and revenue growth, and leverage improved sharply in 2025. However, cash flow is a major weakness with materially negative operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025 and high multi-year volatility, which raises funding/liquidity risk typical of mortgage REITs.Income Statement
Profitability is strong in the most recent annual period (2025), with a solid net profit margin (~33%) and a sharp rebound in revenue (+131% YoY) following modest declines in 2024. However, results have been volatile over the cycle (including a deeply negative revenue and net loss year in 2022), which reduces confidence in the durability of earnings despite the recent recovery.67
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved meaningfully in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to ~1.15x versus very high levels in 2023–2024 (~5.7x–7.4x), and return on equity remains healthy (~16% in 2025). The key weakness is the business model’s historical reliance on heavy leverage and the large swings in equity returns (including negative ROE in 2022), which can pressure stability in weaker mortgage/credit markets.61
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the primary concern: operating cash flow and free cash flow were materially negative in 2024 and 2025 (about -$221M and -$407M, respectively), following mixed performance in prior years (positive in 2020 and 2023, sharply negative in 2021 and 2022). This level of volatility suggests earnings are not consistently converting into cash and increases reliance on financing and balance sheet flexibility.34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 132.79M | 51.46M | 54.86M | -157.95M | 41.76M |
| Gross Profit | 119.61M | 51.46M | 54.86M | -157.95M | 41.76M |
| EBITDA | 147.11M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 44.02M | 28.75M | 33.71M | -187.83M | 21.11M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.27B | 2.31B | 2.95B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.62M | 40.76M | 41.63M | 29.27M | 40.80M |
| Total Debt | 307.78M | 1.77B | 1.46B | 1.64B | 1.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.48B | 2.03B | 2.05B | 2.71B | 2.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 267.52M | 238.97M | 256.11M | 236.48M | 491.39M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.59M | -221.43M | 306.40M | -331.13M | -1.57B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.59M | -221.43M | 306.40M | -331.13M | -1.57B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -411.88M | 120.84M | -194.11M | 664.33M | -460.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 395.68M | 98.99M | -107.66M | -345.65M | 2.03B |
Angel Oak Mortgage Technical Analysis
Negative
8.40
Price Trends
8.59
Negative
8.49
Negative
8.56
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
45.30
Neutral
47.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AOMR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.47, below the 50-day MA of 8.59, and below the 200-day MA of 8.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AOMR.
Angel Oak Mortgage Risk Analysis
Angel Oak Mortgage disclosed 112 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Angel Oak Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Angel Oak Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $231.09M | 3.21 | 19.02% | 14.36% | 15.51% | 210.91% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $209.28M | 4.71 | 17.10% | 14.83% | 65.86% | -74.61% | |
65 Neutral | $187.55M | 8.79 | 5.46% | 13.82% | -18.06% | -18.94% | |
60 Neutral | $262.24M | 7.15 | 0.05% | 15.86% | -1.57% | -15.32% | |
57 Neutral | $244.36M | 4.98 | 8.85% | 9.61% | 20.44% | -59.21% | |
51 Neutral | $267.43M | -16.99 | -0.17% | 13.75% | -30.60% | 87.95% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
8.40
-0.13
-1.58%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.83
0.36
8.01%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
8.30
-2.95
-26.22%
MITT
AG Mortgage
7.70
0.47
6.47%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
13.04
-0.71
-5.16%
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
12.44
-1.48
-10.63%
Angel Oak Mortgage Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Angel Oak Mortgage Schedules Q4 and Full-Year Results
Neutral
Feb 11, 2026
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc., a U.S.-focused real estate finance company specializing in first lien non-QM loans and other mortgage-related assets, operates under external management from an affiliate of Angel Oak Capital Advisors, a prominent alternative credit manager in mortgage credit. The REIT’s business model centers on generating risk-adjusted returns through income and capital appreciation across varying interest rate and credit environments, leveraging Angel Oak’s broader platform in asset management, lending, and capital markets.
On February 11, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT announced that it would release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results before the market opens on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, followed by a webcast and conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The scheduled earnings release and investor call signal continued engagement with shareholders and analysts, offering the market a forthcoming update on the company’s performance and outlook in the non-QM mortgage and real estate finance space.
The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Angel Oak Mortgage Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share on its common stock, to be paid on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 20, 2026. The dividend underscores the company’s continued focus on returning capital to investors as it pursues its strategy of generating risk-adjusted returns from non-QM and other mortgage-related assets, providing income visibility for common shareholders and signaling ongoing confidence in its cash flow profile.
The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.