Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 293.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: -32.53%
• EPS Growth: -112.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,960
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -1.24
• Shares Outstanding: 12,792,685
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 288,402
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 293,040
• PEG Ratio: 0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 146.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 155.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.18
• 1Y Price Target: $206.00
• Price Target Upside: 3.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.39B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $200.00 ▲(0.54% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

AMR’s score is primarily supported by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and still-positive cash generation, with earnings-call updates adding some forward visibility via 2026 commitments and operational progress. These positives are materially offset by sharply weakened profitability (including a net loss), very weak technical momentum (oversold and below key moving averages), and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet and liquidity

AMR's large cash balance, short-term investments and $183.7M unused ABL provide durable financial flexibility. This liquidity supports operations through commodity cycles, funds capital projects (like Wildcat), reduces refinancing risk and allows disciplined commercial responses during prolonged market weakness.

Material forward sales commitments

Having 4.1M domestic committed tons (with ~37% priced at midpoint and ~53% committed but unpriced) gives AMR meaningful forward cash‑flow visibility. This coverage lowers near‑term revenue volatility, supports operational planning and underpins financing and reinvestment decisions through 2026.

Kingston Wildcat ramp expands capacity

Progress at Kingston Wildcat adds low‑vol production and long‑term optionality: ramping to 1.0M tons increases scale, can lower unit costs as operations normalize, and diversifies AMR's supply base—supporting sustainable production growth and margin improvement as the asset reaches steady state.

Negative Factors

Deteriorated profitability and net loss

A 2025 net loss and compressed operating margins highlight AMR's earnings cyclicality. If met‑coal prices or steel demand stay weak, persistent margin pressure could limit free cash flow, constrain reinvestment or dividend capacity, and increase sensitivity to future commodity downcycles.

Volatile cash generation (Q4 declines)

Sharp quarter‑over‑quarter drops in EBITDA and operating cash demonstrate material cash conversion volatility. Such swings can strain working capital, delay project funding or maintenance, and force deeper cost cuts if sustained, impeding stable long‑term cash generation.

Structural seaborne oversupply and weak steel demand

Management's warning on high‑vol oversupply, index divergence and weak global steel demand signals durable market headwinds. Persistent seaborne competition and policy uncertainty can depress metallurgical realizations, extend recovery cycles and structurally cap margin upside for U.S. met‑coal producers.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

AMR makes money primarily by selling coal, with metallurgical coal as its main profit driver. Revenue is generated when the company produces coal from its mines, processes it through preparation plants to meet customer specifications (e.g., ash and sulfur levels), and sells the resulting metallurgical coal products to steel industry customers. Sales occur in both domestic and export markets; export sales are typically delivered to seaborne customers via U.S. port logistics and ocean shipping arranged through commercial terms. Pricing and realized revenue are largely a function of (1) sales volumes shipped, (2) contracted and spot pricing for metallurgical coal (often influenced by global seaborne met coal benchmarks and steel demand), and (3) product mix/quality, as higher-quality metallurgical coals generally command premium pricing. The company’s earnings are also affected by mining and processing costs, transportation and terminal costs, and the structure of customer contracts (e.g., committed volumes versus spot/short-term sales). If applicable in a given period, AMR also generates revenue from thermal coal sales, but this is typically a secondary stream relative to metallurgical coal. Significant external factors that contribute to or detract from earnings include global steel production levels, metallurgical coal benchmark price cycles, foreign exchange and global trade flows affecting seaborne demand, transportation/port capacity and costs, and regulatory and labor conditions impacting operating continuity and costs. Specific details on named partnerships or counterparties are null.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet with conservative leverage supports resilience, and cash flow has remained positive. However, profitability has deteriorated sharply from the 2022–2023 peak, with compressed margins and a latest annual net loss, highlighting high earnings cyclicality.

Income Statement

Profitability was very strong in 2022–2023 (high operating and net margins), but results cooled materially in 2024 with significantly lower margins and a revenue decline. The latest 2025 annual snapshot shows a net loss and extremely thin operating profitability, which is a meaningful deterioration versus the prior cycle peak and raises concerns about earnings volatility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears conservative in recent years, with very low debt relative to equity from 2022–2025, providing strong financial flexibility. However, the company’s balance sheet has historically been cyclical—2020–2021 showed much higher leverage and weaker returns—so the main risk is the potential for equity and returns to compress quickly in a down-cycle.

Cash Flow

Cash generation was robust in 2022–2024 with operating cash flow comfortably exceeding net income and consistently positive free cash flow, though free cash flow declined in 2023 and again in 2024. The 2025 annual data still shows positive operating and free cash flow, but cash flow covered a smaller share of earnings quality metrics versus prior years (and the period includes a net loss), pointing to more volatile cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.13B	2.96B	3.47B	4.10B	2.26B
Gross Profit	2.71M	331.65M	969.89M	1.69B	457.61M
EBITDA	117.64M	388.59M	1.02B	1.70B	485.14M
Net Income	-61.69M	187.58M	721.96M	1.45B	288.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.28B	2.44B	2.41B	2.31B	1.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	415.56M	481.58M	268.21M	347.96M	81.21M
Total Debt	23.40M	5.78M	10.37M	10.97M	448.55M
Total Liabilities	735.13M	789.21M	832.13M	882.72M	1.31B
Stockholders Equity	1.55B	1.65B	1.57B	1.43B	546.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.77M	381.07M	605.79M	1.32B	91.64M
Operating Cash Flow	144.93M	579.92M	851.16M	1.48B	174.94M
Investing Cash Flow	-203.97M	-230.99M	-166.00M	-329.36M	-89.86M
Financing Cash Flow	-52.23M	-128.90M	-656.43M	-981.87M	-147.04M

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 198.92
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 198.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 179.61, below the 50-day MA of 201.14, and above the 200-day MA of 163.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMR.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NRP	79 Outperform	$1.63B	10.38	22.94%	4.05%	-14.79%	-17.10%
ARLP	77 Outperform	$3.60B	9.02	17.15%	11.05%	-9.45%	-46.37%
BTU	62 Neutral	$4.54B	-68.38	-1.47%	0.96%	-7.21%	-106.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
HCC	60 Neutral	$4.65B	81.30	2.71%	0.36%	-23.25%	-90.78%
AMR	56 Neutral	$2.48B	-42.11	-3.88%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%
METC	49 Neutral	$884.42M	-18.74	-12.01%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events

Alpha Metallurgical Highlights Strength in New Investor Presentation

In February 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources circulated a draft investor presentation highlighting its position as the largest U.S. metallurgical coal producer, accounting for about one-fifth of national output and supported by a diversified complex of mines and processing facilities across Appalachia. The materials emphasized the company’s 2025 operational performance, reserve base of 294 million tons, export-heavy sales mix and safety and environmental record, underscoring its role in global steel supply chains and its efforts to maintain efficiency amid mine idlings and industry cost and regulatory pressures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMR) stock is a Hold with a $203.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock, see the AMR Stock Forecast page.