AMC Networks (AMCX) AI Stock Analysis

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AMC Networks

(NASDAQ:AMCX)

45Neutral

AMC Networks struggles with financial issues, highlighted by declining revenues and profitability. Despite positive cash flow and strategic streaming growth, the company faces significant challenges in its core domestic operations and anticipated revenue decline. Technical indicators also reflect bearish sentiment, and the lack of profitability impacts valuation attractiveness. Mixed earnings call sentiment underscores both opportunities and risks, leading to a below-average overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Earnings Performance

AMCX reported 2Q revenues 2% above expectations, while AOI was 34% above Street estimates, indicating solid execution and cost controls.

Strategic Partnerships

AMCX renewed several major affiliate agreements during the 3Q, including a long-term deal with Charter, combining linear and streaming services.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Guidance for another year of double-digit linear affiliate/ad declines underscores the pressures facing smaller cable nets with limited pricing power.

Traditional TV Bundle Challenges

Headwinds to the traditional TV bundle are accelerating AMC Networks' EBITDA declines.

AMC Networks (AMCX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$265.25M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)635.82K

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9

Beta (1Y)1.13

Revenue Growth-10.71%

EPS Growth-202.93%

CountryUS

Employees1,800

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength83

IndustryEntertainment

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.64

Shares Outstanding32,651,188

10 Day Avg. Volume620,180

30 Day Avg. Volume635,823

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.13

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)1.40

P/FCF Ratio0.90

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$6.40

Price Target Upside-2.14% Downside

Rating ConsensusStrong Sell

Number of Analyst Covering5

AMC Networks Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAMC Networks Inc. (AMCX) is an American entertainment company known for its popular and critically acclaimed television programming. The company owns and operates several brands, including AMC, BBC America, IFC, SundanceTV, and WE tv, as well as the streaming services AMC+, Acorn TV, Shudder, Sundance Now, and ALLBLK. AMC Networks is recognized for its original programming, including iconic series such as 'The Walking Dead,' 'Mad Men,' and 'Breaking Bad.' The company is involved in the production, broadcasting, and distribution of content across various platforms, making it a significant player in the television and streaming industry.

How the Company Makes MoneyAMC Networks primarily generates revenue through a combination of subscription fees, advertising sales, and content licensing. Subscription fees are derived from cable and satellite providers who pay to carry the company's networks, as well as from direct-to-consumer streaming services like AMC+ and niche streaming platforms like Shudder and Acorn TV. Advertising sales represent income from commercial spots sold on the company's linear television networks. Content licensing involves selling the rights to air AMC Networks' original programming to other networks and streaming services, both domestically and internationally. The company's strategic partnerships with other media entities and content creators also play a role in enhancing its content offerings and expanding its audience reach.

AMC Networks Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AMC Networks faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues. The lack of current balance sheet data suggests potential financial instability. However, strong cash flow metrics provide some resilience, indicating that while the company is under pressure, it still generates cash from operations. The high leverage poses a risk, requiring careful management to stabilize financial health.

Income Statement

Neutral

AMC Networks experienced a decline in total revenue and net income in the latest year, with the company reporting a negative EBIT and net income. This indicates significant challenges in maintaining profitability. The gross profit margin is non-existent due to the lack of COGS data, and the net profit margin has turned negative. Revenue growth has been negative, reflecting a downward trend in sales.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet shows no data for the latest year, indicating potential issues in asset and equity management. In previous years, the debt-to-equity ratio was high, pointing to significant leverage risk. The return on equity and equity ratio have fluctuated, showing instability in financial health and shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Free cash flow in the latest year is positive, indicating some operational efficiency, but the growth rate is negative compared to previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, as cash flows remain strong despite profitability challenges, suggesting operational cash generation capability.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.42B	2.71B	3.10B	3.08B	2.81B
	Gross Profit
2.42B	1.40B	1.58B	1.65B	1.41B
	EBIT
-39.60M	388.41M	593.49M	695.37M	701.19M
	EBITDA
979.10M	1.46B	1.25B	1.53B	1.49B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-226.55M	215.46M	11.03M	250.60M	239.98M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
784.65M	570.58M	930.00M	892.22M	888.53M
	Total Assets
4.36B	4.97B	5.63B	5.75B	5.25B
	Total Debt
2.43B	2.48B	2.97B	3.03B	3.08B
	Net Debt
1.65B	1.91B	2.04B	2.13B	2.19B
	Total Liabilities
3.42B	3.71B	4.53B	4.56B	4.29B
	Stockholders Equity
855.60M	1.05B	806.99M	851.09M	616.80M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
375.62M	168.71M	137.56M	100.90M	702.14M
	Operating Cash Flow
375.62M	203.92M	181.83M	143.47M	748.74M
	Investing Cash Flow
-40.38M	-24.32M	-39.38M	-26.58M	-35.16M
	Financing Cash Flow
-110.22M	-544.43M	-97.11M	-84.10M	-648.00M

AMC Networks Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price6.54

Price Trends

50DMA

6.94

Negative

100DMA

8.22

Negative

200DMA

8.70

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.21

Negative

RSI

50.94

Neutral

STOCH

83.40

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMCX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.26, below the 50-day MA of 6.94, and below the 200-day MA of 8.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMCX.

AMC Networks Risk Analysis

AMC Networks disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AMC Networks reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

AMC Networks Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IQ	64 Neutral	$1.85B	17.31	6.01%	―	-9.84%	-61.26%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$13.71B	6.83	-3.41%	3.82%	2.31%	-35.16%
SBGI	56 Neutral	$1.03B	3.11	71.43%	6.77%	13.21%	―
PARA	54 Neutral	$8.31B	―	-31.94%	1.70%	-1.48%	-450.15%
AMCX	45 Neutral	$265.25M	13.94	-23.80%	―	-10.71%	-202.93%
AMC	45 Neutral	$1.17B	―	20.03%	―	-3.64%	48.94%
LGF.B	39 Underperform	$1.86B	―	259.47%	―	-2.85%	75.96%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AMCX

AMC Networks

6.54

-4.39

-40.16%

PARA

Paramount Global Class B

11.73

-0.30

-2.49%

SBGI

Sinclair Broadcast

14.78

3.07

26.22%

AMC

AMC Entertainment

2.71

-0.32

-10.56%

Iqiyi

1.92

-3.15

-62.13%

LGF.B

Lions Gate Entertainment Class B

7.46

-2.30

-23.57%

AMC Networks Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 14, 2025 | % Change Since: -33.54% | Next Earnings Date: May 9, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While AMC Networks achieved its full-year guidance and showed growth in streaming subscriptions and innovative partnerships, challenges in domestic revenue, operating losses, and anticipated future revenue decline indicate significant headwinds.

Highlights

Achievement of Full-Year Guidance

AMC Networks achieved their full-year guidance for 2024, with consolidated revenue of $2.4 billion, AOI of $563 million, and free cash flow of $331 million.

Increase in Streaming Subscribers

The company reported an 8% year-over-year increase in streaming subscribers, ending the year with 12.4 million subscribers.

Innovative Content Licensing and Partnerships

Successful execution of a licensing agreement with Netflix, leading to heightened viewer awareness and interest in AMC titles, notably boosting viewership and acquisition on AMC Plus.

Expansion of Advertising Innovation

Introduction of AMCN Outcomes, a new advertising performance product, and the upcoming launch of an ad-supported version of Shudder.

Successful Reduction in Gross Debt

AMC Networks reduced its gross debt by approximately half a billion dollars, with no bond maturities until 2029.

Positive International Advertising Revenue Growth

International advertising revenues grew 16% and 12% for the full year and fourth quarter, respectively.

Lowlights

Decline in Domestic Operations Revenue

Domestic operations revenues decreased by 9% for the full year and 11% for the fourth quarter, driven by linear subscriber declines and challenges in the entertainment ad market.

Consolidated Operating Loss

The company reported a consolidated operating loss of $40 million for the full year, including impairment and restructuring charges.

Challenges in the UK and Spain Markets

A non-renewal of a distribution agreement in the UK and a recent non-renewal with Movistar in Spain are expected to impact revenue in 2025.

Anticipated Decrease in 2025 Revenue

AMC Networks expects a 5% decrease in total consolidated revenue for 2025 compared to 2024.

Company Guidance

During the AMC Networks Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided a comprehensive overview of their financial results and future outlook. Key metrics highlighted include achieving a consolidated revenue of $2.4 billion, an adjusted operating income (AOI) of $563 million, and a free cash flow of $331 million for the year. They also announced an updated cumulative free cash flow outlook of approximately $550 million over the 2024-2025 period. The company reported having 12.4 million streaming subscribers, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase. Domestic operations saw a 9% revenue decrease for the full year, while streaming revenue grew by 7%, offsetting a 13% decline in affiliate revenue. For 2025, AMC Networks expects a 5% decrease in total consolidated revenue, with a focus on streaming growth projected in the low to mid-teens percentage range. Additionally, the call addressed strategic content licensing agreements with platforms like Netflix, which have bolstered viewer engagement and subscription growth on AMC Plus.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.