Adecoagro SA (AGRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.76B
• Dividend Yield: 4.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 792.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 150.5
• Beta (1Y): -0.07
• Revenue Growth: -7.37%
• EPS Growth: -84.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,896
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 141,465,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,658,537
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 792,866
• PEG Ratio: -0.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 74.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.00
• 1Y Price Target: $12.73
• Price Target Upside: 71.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.63B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(21.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/18/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/18/25

Adecoagro SA's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while valuation metrics suggest the stock may be overvalued. Despite some positive developments in ethanol production and strategic acquisitions, financial pressures and market challenges remain significant.

Positive Factors

Integrated, diversified agribusiness platform

Adecoagro’s vertically integrated model — farming through processing plus renewable energy — creates durable operational synergies. Capturing value across the chain supports margin retention, reduces dependence on single commodity cycles, and spreads operational risk across businesses.

Scale and flexibility in ethanol and energy operations

Record crushing and a strategic shift to higher ethanol mix (58% vs 45% prior) demonstrate scalable operational capacity and product flexibility. Higher ethanol weighting enhances margin stability and recurring bioenergy cash flow, insulating results from granular crop price swings over months.

Profertil acquisition materially expands industrial scale

Acquiring Profertil advances diversification into fertilizer manufacturing, reducing reliance on volatile crop cycles. The enlarged industrial platform and higher recurring industrial EBITDA can steady group cash flows, enhance regional market position, and improve long-term revenue and margin mix.

Negative Factors

High and rising leverage

Substantial leverage and a rising net debt burden constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and interest risks. Elevated leverage limits ability to absorb commodity shocks, reduces capacity for opportunistic capex or dividends, and raises sensitivity to interest rate or currency moves.

Sharply compressed gross margins

A dramatic gross margin decline signals structural cost-pressure or pricing deterioration across operations. Lower gross margins erode the company’s buffer against commodity price swings, reduce reinvestment capacity, and weigh on sustained profitability and return metrics over the medium term.

Weak free cash flow and reliance on external capital

Significant FCF contraction limits internal funding for capex, debt reduction, or working capital. The need to raise equity for strategic deals increases dilution risk and signals dependence on capital markets, which can constrain execution and elevate financing cost over the medium term.

Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Adecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America. It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities, as well as sugar, ethanol, and energy production activities. The company is involved in the planting, harvesting, and sale of grains and oilseeds, as well as wheat, corn, soybeans, peanuts, cotton, sunflowers, and others; provision of grain warehousing/conditioning, handling, and drying services to third parties; and purchase and sale of crops produced by third parties. It also plants, harvests, processes, and markets rice; and produces and sells raw milk, UHT, cheese, powder milk, and others. In addition, the company engages in the cultivating, processing, and transforming of sugarcane into ethanol and sugar; and the sale of electricity cogenerated at its sugar and ethanol mills to the grid. Further, it is involved in the identification and acquisition of underdeveloped and undermanaged farmland, and the realization of value through the strategic disposition of assets. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned a total of 219,850 hectares of land, including 18 farms in Argentina, 8 farms in Brazil, and 1 farm in Uruguay, as well as a total of 241 megawatts of installed cogeneration capacity. Adecoagro S.A. was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

Adecoagro generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural products, including grains, sugar, and dairy. The company capitalizes on favorable market conditions and prices for its crops, which are sold both domestically and internationally. Additionally, Adecoagro has a significant revenue stream from its renewable energy operations, producing and selling bioenergy from sugarcane. The company benefits from various partnerships, including agreements with local distributors and international buyers, which help secure market access and optimize sales. Seasonal fluctuations in crop yields and global commodity prices are critical factors influencing Adecoagro's earnings, alongside its strategic focus on sustainability and efficiency in production practices.

Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Adecoagro SA faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability, coupled with high leverage and reduced cash flow generation. While operational efficiency remains reasonable, the company needs to address cost pressures and improve cash flow to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

The income statement shows declining revenue growth with a negative rate of -11.98% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 31.98% in 2023 to 14.13% in TTM, suggesting increased cost pressures. Net profit margin also declined to 1.71% in TTM, reflecting reduced profitability. However, the company maintains a reasonable EBITDA margin of 26.40%, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17 in TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity has decreased to 1.69% in TTM, showing reduced efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 37.64%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet indicates potential stability concerns due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -31.51% in TTM, indicating challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, reflecting moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.18, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures. Overall, cash flow performance indicates potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.39B	1.52B	1.30B	1.35B	1.12B	817.76M
Gross Profit	344.56M	434.84M	415.39M	465.63M	484.25M	335.55M
EBITDA	340.74M	412.92M	651.61M	470.89M	453.24M	266.90M
Net Income	23.45M	92.34M	226.29M	108.14M	130.67M	412.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.65B	3.11B	3.16B	3.11B	2.58B	2.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	365.46M	211.24M	339.78M	329.22M	199.77M	336.28M
Total Debt	1.61B	1.12B	1.28B	1.35B	1.06B	1.17B
Total Liabilities	2.21B	1.71B	1.90B	1.95B	1.53B	1.52B
Stockholders Equity	1.37B	1.37B	1.23B	1.13B	1.01B	925.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	51.39M	65.00M	191.48M	139.80M	135.66M	80.14M
Operating Cash Flow	284.28M	328.33M	434.91M	370.03M	348.66M	257.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-330.14M	-231.56M	-111.55M	-299.26M	-175.22M	-121.92M
Financing Cash Flow	173.96M	-274.00M	-208.74M	-23.57M	-303.13M	-53.92M

Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.74, below the 50-day MA of 9.04, and below the 200-day MA of 8.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGRO.

Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDP	70 Outperform	$1.96B	18.92	4.53%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DOLE	59 Neutral	$1.39B	27.79	3.76%	2.23%	7.09%	-83.75%
ALCO	58 Neutral	$299.68M	-19.99	-83.19%	0.55%	-5.52%	-2194.72%
VFF	55 Neutral	$314.24M	12.72	11.50%	―	-12.68%	―
AGRO	52 Neutral	$1.76B	150.51	1.70%	4.40%	-7.37%	-84.53%
LND	49 Neutral	$424.75M	191.55	-0.07%	3.39%	-3.22%	-108.24%

Adecoagro SA Corporate Events

Adecoagro Completes Acquisition of Profertil

On December 15, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced the completion of its acquisition of a 90% stake in Profertil S.A., the largest producer of granular urea in South America. This acquisition, valued at approximately US$1.1 billion, was financed through a combination of existing cash balances, a long-term credit facility, and a US$300 million equity issuance. The transaction is seen as a transformative milestone for Adecoagro, significantly expanding its scale and production capabilities, and positioning it as a key player in the region’s sustainable, real-economy businesses. The acquisition is expected to nearly double Adecoagro’s sales and Adjusted EBITDA, enhancing its ability to deliver net results for shareholders while maintaining financial discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Sell with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.

Adecoagro S.A. Announces $300 Million Share Offering

On December 11, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced the pricing of its underwritten offering of 41,379,311 common shares at $7.25 per share, aiming to raise approximately $300 million. The offering is expected to close on December 15, 2025, with J.P. Morgan and BofA Securities as global coordinators. Tether Investments S.A. de C.V., Adecoagro’s controlling shareholder, along with management and other investors, have agreed to purchase a significant portion of the shares, indicating strong internal support and potential positive impact on the company’s market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Sell with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.

Adecoagro S.A. Launches $300 Million Public Offering

On December 9, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced the commencement of a public offering of $300 million of its common shares, with J.P. Morgan and BofA Securities acting as global coordinators. The offering includes an option for underwriters to purchase an additional $11.1 million of shares. Tether Investments, the controlling shareholder, and certain management have shown interest in purchasing a significant portion of the shares, although these are not binding commitments. This move is part of Adecoagro’s strategic efforts to access capital markets and potentially strengthen its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Sell with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.

Adecoagro Moves to Acquire Full Control of Profertil and Files for $500 Million Shelf Registration

On December 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced the filing of a shelf registration statement with the SEC, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $500 million of its common shares, subject to market conditions and capital needs. Additionally, Adecoagro submitted a binding offer to acquire YPF’s 50% stake in Profertil S.A., aiming to become the controlling shareholder with 90% ownership. This acquisition, expected to be completed by December 31, 2025, will enhance Adecoagro’s scale and diversify its portfolio, positioning it as a key supplier in the regional agricultural sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.

Adecoagro Expands Agro-Industrial Platform with Profertil Acquisition

On September 5, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced an agreement to acquire Nutrien Ltd.’s 50% equity interest in Profertil S.A., a leading producer of granular urea in South America, as part of its strategy to expand its agro-industrial platform. The acquisition, valued at approximately $600 million, is expected to be completed by December 31, 2025, following YPF’s decision not to exercise its right of first refusal and Adecoagro’s subsequent offer to acquire YPF’s remaining 50% stake. This move positions Adecoagro to enhance its market presence in the region and diversify its operations further.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.

Adecoagro S.A. Files Financial Statements for Potential Profertil Acquisition

Adecoagro S.A. has filed a report with the SEC regarding the audited financial statements of Profertil S.A., a significant probable acquisition. The financial statements cover the years ending December 31, 2024, and 2023, and the interim periods ending September 30, 2025, and 2024. This filing is part of Adecoagro’s strategic move to potentially acquire Profertil S.A., which could enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities in the agricultural industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.

Adecoagro Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results Amid Market Challenges

On November 11, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. released its financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $115.1 million, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year, despite a challenging global price scenario. However, gross sales decreased by 29.2% compared to the same quarter last year. The company achieved an all-time crushing record and shifted its focus towards ethanol maximization. The financial performance reflects the company’s strategic adjustments in response to market conditions, impacting its operations and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.