Agree Realty (ADC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.99B
• Dividend Yield: 4.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.30
• Revenue Growth: 14.90%
• EPS Growth: 5.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 74
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 107,352,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,154,006
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,336,062
• PEG Ratio: 7.92
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 13.48
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 14.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $78.90
• Price Target Upside: 10.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Agree Realty demonstrates strong financial health with effective cash flow management and strategic investments. While the stock's valuation appears high, its robust dividend yield compensates for this. The earnings call and corporate events indicate a positive outlook, supported by significant liquidity and investment growth plans. However, market volatility and high interest rates present challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The company reported $1.06 AFFO/sh, coming in ahead of the estimate of $1.04.

Growth Outlook

Increasing acquisitions estimate to $1.2B reflects a positive outlook on growth.

Liquidity

ADC has a formidable liquidity profile, which would allow the company to fund more than one year of acquisitions without additional equity.

Negative Factors

Cost of Capital

ADC's cost of capital increased, although still at a healthy level.

Growth Concerns

The AFFO/sh growth of 3.5% is below the average growth of all REITs, which is around 4%.

Tariffs Impact

Tariffs might impact some of ADC's largest tenant categories, including home improvement and auto parts, due to higher steel and aluminum costs.

Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 1,027 properties, located in 45 states and containing approximately 21.0 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ADC.

How the Company Makes Money

Agree Realty Corporation generates revenue primarily through rental income received from its portfolio of retail properties. The company's revenue model is based on acquiring and developing properties that are leased to single tenants under long-term, triple-net leases. These leases require tenants to pay all property operating expenses, such as maintenance, insurance, and property taxes, which minimizes Agree Realty's operational costs and risks. Additionally, ADC benefits from lease escalations over time, which provide a predictable and growing income stream. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its property portfolio and leverage opportunities for growth. By focusing on properties leased to creditworthy tenants, Agree Realty ensures a stable and consistent cash flow, which is a key contributor to its earnings.

Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Agree Realty exhibits strong financial health with substantial revenue growth, efficient operational performance, and effective cash flow management. Despite the increasing leverage, the company maintains a solid balance sheet with significant equity backing. The overall financial outlook is positive, driven by robust cash generation and consistent profit margins.

Income Statement

The income statement shows strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $187M in 2019 to $537M in 2023. The net profit margin has been healthy, with the most recent margin at approximately 35.3% in 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, reflecting consistent operational efficiency. However, the absence of data for 2024 limits the ability to assess the most recent performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates strong equity growth, with stockholders' equity increasing from $1.69B in 2019 to $5.19B in 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable but shows an upward trend, indicating increasing leverage which could pose future risks. The equity ratio has remained stable, emphasizing the company's equity-funded growth strategy.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust free cash flow growth trajectory, with significant increases from $126M in 2019 to $391M in 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is consistently above 2, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The company maintains a high free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient capital utilization.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
617.10M	537.50M	463.15M	363.61M	248.57M
	Gross Profit
542.25M	470.78M	377.53M	298.26M	216.82M
	EBIT
302.24M	254.39M	218.09M	190.27M	125.13M
	EBITDA
543.26M	463.95M	386.24M	295.67M	192.16M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
189.83M	169.96M	152.44M	122.27M	91.38M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.40M	10.91M	27.76M	43.25M	6.14M
	Total Assets
8.49B	7.77B	6.71B	5.23B	3.89B
	Total Debt
2.28B	2.41B	1.94B	1.69B	1.22B
	Net Debt
2.27B	2.40B	1.91B	1.64B	1.21B
	Total Liabilities
2.98B	2.57B	2.08B	1.81B	1.36B
	Stockholders Equity
5.51B	5.20B	4.63B	3.42B	2.52B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
431.97M	391.60M	362.12M	246.31M	142.96M
	Operating Cash Flow
431.97M	391.60M	362.12M	246.31M	142.96M
	Investing Cash Flow
-885.41M	-1.27B	-1.62B	-1.39B	-1.30B
	Financing Cash Flow
445.31M	869.01M	1.24B	1.18B	1.12B

Agree Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 71.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 71.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.72, below the 50-day MA of 73.89, and above the 200-day MA of 71.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADC.

Agree Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NNN	79 Outperform	$7.63B	18.84	9.32%	5.68%	4.97%	-0.26%
ADC	72 Outperform	$7.99B	41.85	3.53%	4.23%	14.90%	5.28%
FRT	72 Outperform	$7.48B	25.30	9.58%	5.06%	6.21%	22.32%
PECO	72 Outperform	$4.84B	68.67	2.71%	3.44%	8.57%	6.55%
BRX	70 Outperform	$7.33B	21.51	11.61%	4.61%	3.41%	10.54%
KRG	64 Neutral	$4.57B	1,124.32	0.52%	5.10%	2.42%	-91.46%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$4.43B	16.22	-3.23%	11.37%	6.25%	-21.19%

Agree Realty Corporate Events

Agree Realty Projects Strong Investment Growth for 2025

Agree Realty Corporation announced its 2024 investment activity, revealing a total real estate investment volume of approximately $951 million across 282 properties leased to leading tenants in 45 states. The company’s 2025 investment outlook projects a 26% year-over-year increase in investment volume, ranging between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion, supported by a strong balance sheet and liquidity of over $2 billion. This strategic positioning and robust pipeline are expected to strengthen its market position and enable continued growth despite macroeconomic conditions.