Tvardi Therapeutics: Buy Rating Driven by Promising TTI-101 Trial ProspectsWe see a strong likelihood of TTI-101 showing a competitive profile, representing a major upside catalyst for TVRD. Our base case. As per our KOLs, achieving disease stabilization would be a big win for a novel IPF drug. In our base case, we see FVC stabilization on TTI-101 (+/-1% change from baseline at Wk-12). In comparison, we expect FVC on placebo arm to decline by 2.3-3%, in line with recent comparable Ph2 trials. While cross trial comparisons have caveats, our base case efficacy range for TTI-101 assumes a profile that is at least superior to BMS' admilparant to potentially matching PLRX's bexotegrast (recall that bexotegrast failure was due to safety not efficacy). Following such an outcome, TVRD stock could potentially jump up to 65%, depending on details.